Oregon

Oregon Ducks plummet in ESPN FPI after Week 1 win vs. Idaho

Published

1 year ago

September 2, 2024

Oregon Ducks plummet in ESPN FPI after Week 1 win vs. Idaho

The Oregon Ducks entered Week 1 of the 2024 College Football Season with as much hype as anyone in the nation, expected by many to win the national championship when all was said and done.

They now leave Week 1 with a bit of concern about how good this team really is.

Oregon defeated Idaho 24-14, but they looked nothing like the dominant team that we expected. That doesn’t mean they can’t bounce back and look like the College Football Playoff contenders that we originally imagined this coming week against Boise State, but for now, expectations are currently tempered a bit in Eugene.

Those expectations are tempering nation-wide as well, displayed no more glaringly than in the ESPN Football Power Index, where Oregon’s numbers have plummeted over the weekend.

For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is a ranking that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.

In short, they looked at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicted what percent chance the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers will change based on past performance, injuries, and a whole myriad of variables that take place throughout the season.

Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 1:

Oregon vs. Boise State Broncos — Week 2

Syndication: The Register-Guard

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.7%

Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%

Analysis: Boise State struggled to put away Georgia Southern in Week 1, so there shouldn’t be much concern that Oregon will be able to get the win on Saturday inside Autzen Stadium. Slowing down RB Ashton Jeanty may be a bit of a task after he put up 6 touchdowns to open the season, but the Ducks’ defense will surely be up to the task.

Oregon at Oregon State Beavers — Week 3

Syndication: The Register Guard

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 78.1%

Previous FPI Win %: 87.0%

Analysis: It sure is going to feel strange to play this game in September. There’s a good chance both Oregon and Oregon State are undefeated going into this game, but the Ducks should still be able to take care of the Beavers with relative ease based on the talent gap alone.

Oregon at UCLA Bruins — Week 5

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.8%

Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%

Analysis: The first Big Ten game for the Ducks will come against a familiar foe down in Los Angeles. It will be interesting to see what UCLA looks like this year with a new coaching staff and remade roster, but even at their best I don’t think the Bruins will be able to hang with the Ducks.

For more UCLA news, check out UCLA Wire!

Oregon vs. Michigan State Spartans — Week 6

(Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.5%

Previous FPI Win %: Not Listed

Analysis: The odds were not listed for the Michigan State game to start the year, but after getting a glimpse of the Spartans in Week 1, ESPN doesn’t seem to be lacking any confidence over Oregon’s ability to beat them.

For more Michigan State news, check out Spartans Wire!

Oregon vs.No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes — Week 7

Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%

Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%

Analysis: This is a game that I’m honestly surprised didn’t see a change in the win probability. Ohio State looked very solid in their Week 1 win over Akron, but they’re still projected to lose inside Autzen Stadium in Week 7.

For more Ohio State news, check out Buckeyes Wire!

Oregon at Purdue Boilermakers— Week 8

Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.2%

Previous FPI Win %: Not listed

Analysis: I expected this game to be viewed like the Michigan State game would, but because it’s on the road it appears that ESPN isn’t as confident in the Ducks as we expected. Still, I think the Ducks should be fin and this win probability will increase over the net month.

Oregon vs. Illinois Fighting Illini — Week 9

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.6%

Previous FPI Win %: 95.5%

Analysis: Illinois is a team that is getting a little bit of attention in the conference as a potential trap game candidate, and with this matchup coming a week before Michigan, you can see that risk for the Ducks. But in all reality, there’s no reason this game should be close.

Oregon at Michigan Wolverines — Week 10

(Photo By Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 44.9%

Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%

Analysis: A big-time drop in win probability for the Ducks here as Michigan looked good at home in their win over Fresno State. It’s going to be a big game for Oregon in the Big House, with this being the only matchup the Ducks aren’t favored to win.

For more Michigan news, check out Wolverines Wire!

Oregon vs. Maryland Terrapins— Week 11

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.0%

Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%

Analysis: For the first-ever matchup between Oregon and Maryland, this one isn’t expected to be all that competitive. Maryland is going to have an interesting year with a new QB at the helm, but they could be dangerous for some teams in the middle of the conference. Ultimately, I don’t think the Ducks will have any issue.

Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 67.8%

Previous FPI Win %: 82.7%

Analysis: This should be a thrilling matchup in Madison late in the year, and with the history between these two teams, it could be a classic. We’re unsure what Wisconsin will look like this year in the second season under Luke Fickell, and now with Tyler Van Dyke under center, but if they meet expectations, we should be in for a good game here.

For more Wisconsin news, check out Badgers Wire!

Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14

(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 72.6%

Previous FPI Win %: 89.8%

Analysis: It feels like this is the chance at revenge that Oregon Duck fans have been waiting for. After three straight losses to Washington over the past two years, Oregon has a chance to blow out a less-talented team this year, and you know that they’re going to take very opportunity to make it a lopsided affair late in the season.

For more Washington news, check out UW Huskies Wire!

Oregon vs. Boise State Broncos — Week 2

Syndication: The Register-Guard

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.7%

Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%

Oregon at Oregon State Beavers — Week 3

Syndication: The Register Guard

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 78.1%

Previous FPI Win %: 87.0%

Oregon at UCLA Bruins — Week 5

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.8%

Previous FPI Win %: 87.9%

For more UCLA news, check out UCLA Wire!

Oregon vs. Michigan State Spartans — Week 6

(Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.5%

Previous FPI Win %: Not Listed

For more Michigan State news, check out Spartans Wire!

Oregon vs.No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes — Week 7

Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%

Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%

For more Ohio State news, check out Buckeyes Wire!

Oregon at Purdue Boilermakers— Week 8

Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 70.2%

Previous FPI Win %: Not listed

Oregon vs. Illinois Fighting Illini — Week 9

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.6%

Previous FPI Win %: 95.5%

Oregon at Michigan Wolverines — Week 10

(Photo By Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 44.9%

Previous FPI Win %: 65.5%

For more Michigan news, check out Wolverines Wire!

Oregon vs. Maryland Terrapins— Week 11

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.0%

Previous FPI Win %: 92.7%

Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 67.8%

Previous FPI Win %: 82.7%

For more Wisconsin news, check out Badgers Wire!

Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14

(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 72.6%

Previous FPI Win %: 89.8%

For more Washington news, check out UW Huskies Wire!

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Oregon

Oregon factory jobs fall to lowest point in a dozen years

Published

6 hours ago

December 14, 2025

Press Room

Oregon factory jobs fall to lowest point in a dozen years

Oregon’s manufacturing sector continues its rapid decline with employment down more than 5% in the past year. Newly released state data shows factory employment has fallen below the depths it hit in the dark days of the pandemic recession.

The state had about 177,000 manufacturing jobs in September, the Oregon Employment Department reported last week. That’s the fewest number since December 2013.

Manufacturing is a big deal in Oregon. The state has a higher concentration of blue-collar jobs than most other states, a function of its roots in forest products, food processing and electronics manufacturing.

The state’s tax code also favors heavy industry. Oregon has no sales tax and offers lucrative property tax exemptions to large manufacturers. It exempts companies from income and revenue taxes on products they make here and sell in other states or countries, though the state’s new corporate activity tax is adding to the cost of some equipment and materials that manufacturers use.

Oregon factories began shedding jobs three years ago but as recently as last spring state economists were hopeful the worst was over. It wasn’t. The decline accelerated as the year went on and Oregon has now lost nearly 10,000 factory jobs in the past 12 months.

Much of the trouble corresponds to severe issues in Oregon’s semiconductor industry, the state’s largest economic sector in dollar terms.

Intel remains the state’s largest corporate employer but it has laid off more than 6,000 workers since the summer of 2024. The chipmaker’s Oregon workforce is at its lowest point in more than a dozen years, at a little more than 16,000 local employees.

Intel is struggling to overcome years of setbacks in its production technology, playing catchup to industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. CEO Lip-Bu Tan says a smaller workforce will make Intel more agile.

It’s not just Intel cutting jobs. Microchip Technology, Onsemi and others have laid off an unspecified number of Oregon workers in response to setbacks in their own businesses. Altogether, Oregon chipmakers have shed about a fifth of their jobs in the past 18 months.

President Donald Trump’s trade war may also be playing a role in Oregon’s manufacturing woes. The president says his tariffs are designed to bring factory jobs back to the U.S. but they have also triggered retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

That stings in Oregon, which is among the most trade-dependent states in the nation. The state’s exports were down 19% through the first nine months of the year, according to the latest federal data collected by WiserTrade. It’s not clear how much of that decline was triggered by the trade war, though, and to what degree fewer exports translated into fewer jobs.

In their quarterly revenue forecast last month, state economists told a legislative committee that Oregon factory workers are also spending less time on the job in recent months — a worrisome sign that suggests manufacturers are continuing to scale back.

“The current direction of manufacturing hours worked per week in Oregon, coupled with ongoing job losses, raises concerns for the sector,” the economists wrote.

This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.

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Oregon

Lake scores 16, Oregon State knocks off Montana State 67-57

Published

18 hours ago

December 13, 2025

Press Room

Lake scores 16, Oregon State knocks off Montana State 67-57

CORVALLIS, Ore. (AP) — Josiah Lake’s 16 points helped Oregon State defeat Montana State 67-57 on Saturday.

Lake had eight rebounds and six assists for the Beavers (6-5). Dez White added 12 points while shooting 4 for 11, including 2 for 7 from beyond the arc while he also had five rebounds. Isaiah Sy shot 4 for 8, including 3 for 7 from beyond the arc to finish with 12 points.

The Bobcats (4-7) were led in scoring by Patrick McMahon, who finished with 17 points and seven rebounds. Jeremiah Davis added nine points for Montana State.

Oregon State used a 10-2 run in the second half to build a 10-point lead at 63-53 with 2:02 left in the half before finishing off the win.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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Oregon

How Oregon’s Defense Ranks Compared To James Madison

Published

1 day ago

December 13, 2025

Press Room

How Oregon’s Defense Ranks Compared To James Madison

While the No. 5 Oregon Ducks offense has been the glue of the team’s success this season, their defense has also played a pivotal role in helping them earn a spot in the College Football Playoff for a second consecutive year.

Entering their first-round home playoff matchup against the No. 12 James Madison Dukes, Oregon aims to capitalize on defense, which is crucial in their goal of making a run at its first National Championship in program history. Oregon enters the playoff as one of the highest-ranked at-large teams behind the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Where Does Oregon’s Defense Stack Up Against James Madison, CFP Field?

Oregon outside linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei, left, and Oregon defensive back Dillon Thieneman bring down Washington running back Jonah Coleman as the Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies on Nov. 29, 2025, at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite the Ducks being an overwhelming 21.5-point favorite over James Madison, according to ESPN BET Sportsbook, the first-round playoff matchup in Eugene will be a battle between two dominant defenses.

James Madison is second in the country in total defense behind Ohio State, allowing 247.6 yards per game. The Ducks’ defense is ranked No. 4 in total defense, allowing 251.6 yards per game.

Oregon’s defense has several contributors who have led the team under defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi this season, including Matayo Uiagalelei and A’Mauri Washington up front on the defensive line. Bryce Boettcher and Teitum Tuioti have also been dominant players at linebacker this season for the Ducks.

Boettcher leads the Ducks with 103 total tackles, one interception, and one sack this season. Dillon Thieneman, Brandon Finney Jr., and Aaron Flowers have been key contributors in the secondary with four interceptions combined.

MORE: Weather Concerns Begin For Oregon’s Playoff Game vs. James Madison

MORE: Three Reasons Why Oregon Could Be The Most Dangerous Playoff Team

MORE: Oregon Ducks Projected to Make Program History In 2026 NFL Draft

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When it comes to scoring defense, the Ducks are ranked No. 6 among the other 12 playoff teams, allowing 14.8 points per game.

The five playoff teams that rank above the Ducks in scoring defense include No. 2 Ohio State (8.2), No. 1 Indiana (10.8), No. 4 Texas Tech (10.9), No. 10 Miami (13.8), and No. 8 Oklahoma (13.9). Oregon’s first round opponent, James Madison, is ranked one spot below the Ducks at No. 7 in scoring defense, allowing 15.9 points per game.

Oregon’s Defense Strengths and Weaknesses

Oregon outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti, left, defensive lineman A’Mauri Washington and outside linebacker Matayo Uiagalelei celebrate a sack by Tuioti as the Oregon Ducks host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Nov. 14, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If the Ducks beat James Madison in the first round of the playoff, they’ll face the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in the CFP Quarterfinals at the Orange Bowl on Jan. 1. A potential matchup between the Red Raiders and the Ducks in the Orange Bowl could come down to whichever defense performs better. While Oregon’s pass defense has been dominant throughout the season, its rush defense could jeopardize the Ducks’ quest for a championship.

The Ducks rank No. 8 among playoff teams in rushing defense, allowing 107.3 yards per game. Texas Tech ranks No. 1, allowing 68.5 yards per game. The Red Raiders’ rush defense’s ability to shut down Oregon’s dominant running back trio of Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. will be one of the biggest keys in a potential Orange Bowl matchup.

Sep 5, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; James Madison Dukes running back Wayne Knight (3) runs the ball against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

It’ll be interesting to see how Oregon’s defense holds up against a talented James Madison offense that will have a chip on its shoulder as a massive underdog. The Dukes’ offense, led by quarterback Alonza Barnett III and star running back Wayne Knight, will challenge Oregon’s defense early on, but expect the Ducks to win convincingly.

Oregon will host James Madison at Autzen Stadium to open up the CFP on Dec. 20, with the kickoff scheduled for 4:30 p.m. PT. The game broadcast will be on TNT, HBO Max, and truTV.