Oregon

Big Ten football mailbag: Can anyone stop Oregon? Realignment regret for USC?

Published

1 year ago

October 25, 2024

Big Ten football mailbag: Can anyone stop Oregon? Realignment regret for USC?

By Cameron Teague Robinson, Jesse Temple, Scott Dochterman, Austin Meek, Mitch Sherman and Antonio Morales

This weekend’s Big Ten slate includes No. 20 Illinois at No. 1 Oregon and a flurry of other intriguing matchups. How is your fan base feeling? How many teams can the conference really get into the College Football Playoff?

Let’s get into this week’s Big Ten mailbag.

GO DEEPER

Big Ten football rankings: Which teams are sailing, sinking or (for one) already sunk?

(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

Who is regretting their move to the Big Ten more? USC currently or Nebraska going on a decade-plus of irrelevance and unranked seasons? Oklahoma is another team regretting their realignment move. I’m sure they would like to have a chat with Nebraska to talk about the old days of the Big Eight when they were the only two teams around. — Jason S.

The landscape of college sports has shifted drastically since Nebraska and Oklahoma ran the Big Eight. If those two schools had a choice to undo three decades of change since they entered the world of conference realignment and expansion, they’d take it.

But no such choice ever existed.

The window of time for Nebraska to regret its move to the Big Ten has long closed. Remember, when Nebraska decided to switch leagues in 2010, the future of its conference was in doubt. The only conversation about relevance involved the viability of the Big 12 — and the possibility for Nebraska to find itself on the outside of the group of programs capable of competing at the highest level.

While Nebraska has struggled to win over the past eight years, its place among the top tier of resourced athletic departments nationally is secure. As long as the Big Ten structure remains, Nebraska has a chance in football to find its footing. Meanwhile, many of its other programs are thriving.

Perhaps fans of USC and some leaders at the school are regretting this move to the Big Ten in the short term. But the Trojans, like the Huskers, surely recognize that a jump into one of the two power leagues nationally will better secure possibilities to win championships ahead. — Sherman

GO DEEPER

USC or Oklahoma: Who’s better off in Year 3 after Lincoln Riley’s big move?

Which remaining regular-season opponent is most likely to knock off Oregon? — John K.

Playing at Camp Randall Stadium in mid-November is a rite of passage in the Big Ten. If there’s a game that could trip up the Ducks before the Big Ten Championship Game, it’s at Wisconsin on Nov. 16. I wouldn’t have said that a few weeks ago — after Tyler Van Dyke went down, the Badgers lost back-to-back games against Alabama and USC — but Wisconsin has re-energized its season by beating Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern by a combined score of 117-16.

We’ll find out if Wisconsin’s turnaround is for real Saturday when the Badgers play Penn State. No matter what, Madison in November is a tough trip. If the Ducks make it through that game undefeated, a home game against rival Washington will be the only thing separating them from a perfect regular season. The Huskies have won three in a row in that series, but if the Ducks make it to 11-0, they’re not going to blow it against their rival. Oregon plays 6-1 Illinois on Saturday and travels to Michigan a week later, but the most impressive part of the Michigan-Illinois game last week was the replica leather helmets. — Meek

Certainly, my MSU Spartans aren’t a great team, but Stewart Mandel had them winning only one Big Ten game this season. With Michigan, Purdue and Rutgers (the last two at home!) still on the schedule, the Spartans have a real shot at a bowl. Has MSU exceeded expectations? Is my excitement about the future of the program justified? — Jason M.

I’ve been surprised by how quickly Michigan State has turned things around. Jonathan Smith is doing a great job in his first year, and last weekend’s win over Iowa should spark confidence in everybody.

A bowl should be the expectation now, with just two more wins needed for eligibility, but the schedule isn’t easy.

The Spartans play at Michigan this week, host Indiana and then go to Illinois. Even as bad as Michigan is, that’s a tough three-game stretch. On the back end is a home game against Purdue and then they host Rutgers to end the season. Those are winnable, but I wouldn’t write off a win against Michigan, either.

A bowl game would be a big boost, but even if things stall out at five wins, this is a program on the rise. Smith is a smart coach and he has his quarterback of the future, Aidan Chiles.

I was down on Chiles to start the year, when he threw four touchdowns and seven interceptions in the first four games. Since then, though, he’s been great. In a three-game stretch against Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa, three of the most talented defenses in the Big Ten, he has thrown for 577 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, which includes the 256-yard day he had last weekend against the Hawkeyes. He and freshman Nick Marsh could be a lethal combo in the conference for a long time.

Is Michigan State a Big Ten contender this year or next? Probably not, but there’s a lot to like about Smith, and it’s time for people to hop on the Chiles bandwagon. — Teague Robinson

Illinois coach Bret Bielema has a 24-20 record with the Illini. (Dan Rainville / USA Today via Imagn Images)

With the job Bret Bielema is doing at Illinois, is there any danger of him leaving/being recruited to any other Power 4 jobs? Also, the 2025 class is not ranked very highly for the Illini right now, what is the ceiling for the program in the long term? — Brendan C.

I covered Bielema during his final two seasons at Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 — including when he left abruptly for Arkansas just days after the Big Ten Championship Game. That move was a stunner considering he was Barry Alvarez’s handpicked successor and spent nine seasons there as either the defensive coordinator or head coach.

Sometimes in life, you just need a change. But I do think that experience demonstrated the grass isn’t necessarily greener on the other side. Bielema went 68-24 at Wisconsin and 29-34 at Arkansas before he was fired in Year 5. He’s a Midwest guy who understands the Big Ten and has stability at Illinois. At age 54 and with a family, that has to matter.

It’s possible to build a career in one place if you win enough — Bielema saw it on Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa staff and under Bill Snyder at Kansas State — and it’s not like he has to do it at a place with outrageous expectations. Illinois didn’t have a winning season for a decade before Bielema arrived. His eight wins in 2022 were the most there in 15 years.

As for the program’s immediate ceiling, we’ll find out that Saturday when No. 20 Illinois plays at No. 1 Oregon. The Illini have beaten three teams ranked in the Top 25 at the time of the game (Kansas, Nebraska and Michigan). They play physical, smart football and rank in the top 15 nationally in turnover margin.

I don’t think it’s out of the question to believe Illinois can at some point challenge for the 12-team College Football Playoff under Bielema when you consider the Big Ten could get as many as four teams in and you don’t have to reach the conference title game to have a shot. Illinois was 7-1 to begin the 2022 season, when all five of its losses were by single digits, and is off to a 6-1 start now.

Bielema’s 2025 class may not be ranked especially high at No. 58, but that’s in part because there are only 15 committed prospects. Illinois actually has the highest per-player rating (86.75) in the 247Sports Composite out of any of Bielema’s four full recruiting classes. He can recruit and develop but also needs to hit on the right transfer portal targets to keep Illinois moving in the right direction. — Temple

Does Iowa not recruit talented enough QBs or do the Hawkeyes just not develop the QBs they recruit? — Mike B.

Oh, we’ve got a chicken-or-the-egg discussion here. To provide some context, let’s turn back the clock to the previous decades. In 2008, Iowa switched quarterbacks from Jake Christensen to Ricky Stanzi, who presided over the era known as Ferentz 2.0. That also launched a nice run of four of five quarterbacks becoming NFL Draft picks that concluded with Nate Stanley, who threw 68 touchdown passes from 2017 to 2019. In the five seasons since Stanley left, Iowa has totaled 44 touchdown passes, the lowest in the power conferences. Ohio State, for instance, has 152 touchdown passes over that span.

The downfall in quarterback selection coincides with former offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’s elevation in 2017. Most of the recruited quarterbacks didn’t pan out from that year onward. The transfers with minimal contributions or limited success include Peyton Mansell (2017), Alex Padilla (2019), Deuce Hogan (2020), Joe Labas (2021) and Carson May (2022). Mansell played a bit at Abilene Christian (where May currently is a backup), and Padilla spent a year as a backup at SMU. Hogan left for Kentucky and now New Mexico State, where he was second team this fall but suffered a broken collarbone. Labas is the starter at Central Michigan but has completed 58.2 percent of his passes with a 7-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio.

Spencer Petras (2018) was a three-year starter from 2020 to 2022 before a torn labrum and rotator cuff knocked him out in 2023. This year, Petras transferred to Utah State. Despite an ankle injury that kept him out for two games, Petras has completed 66 percent of his passes, already posted his season best for touchdowns (11) and his 326.3 passing yards per game blows away his previous high of 196.1 in 2020. Those numbers don’t bode well for Iowa’s development.

Perhaps that lack of identification and development turns around under first-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester, who has put together a sound scheme but lacks a quarterback to run it effectively. The good news is if the Hawkeyes don’t have a quarterback they like, they can always sign one from the portal. But the track record isn’t great there, either. — Dochterman

If Michigan’s championship season played out exactly as it did, except Jim Harbaugh wasn’t suspended for the last three regular-season games, is Sherrone Moore still the coach? — Will M.

Yes, most likely. Moore was mentioned as a potential successor when Harbaugh flirted with the NFL after the 2022 season, and even before Harbaugh’s suspension, there were signs that he would be next in line. Michigan likes promoting from within, as it did with Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr after Bo Schembechler retired. The program went off track in replacing Carr with Rich Rodriguez, and the whole Harbaugh era was a way of correcting that mistake. It would have taken a really compelling candidate to make Michigan look outside the family when Harbaugh left.

That being said, if Moore hadn’t gotten the three-game test run in November, there would have been more pressure on Michigan to conduct a full search rather than the abbreviated process that led to Moore’s promotion. Perhaps that process would have revealed a candidate who made Michigan think twice about promoting Moore. Based on who was available at that time, I’m guessing Moore would have gotten the job either way. But those wins against Penn State and Ohio State made it a much easier call. — Meek

GO DEEPER

Meek: For ‘disappointed’ Sherrone Moore, challenges of starting over at Michigan hitting hard

We all know that Oregon is the cream of ex-Pac-12s in the Big Ten, but who’s having the better season of the other three? It would not surprise me if you said UCLA since there is no team in the Big Ten playing a more difficult schedule. — Peter G.

This is all relative to expectations. USC wasn’t thought of as a Big Ten contender before the season, but it was expected to be better than 4-3. UCLA was expected to be bad. And the Bruins are, well, bad.

So, in this reporter’s opinion, the answer is Washington. The Huskies do have some ugly losses, a 24-point beatdown at Iowa and a three-point loss at Rutgers where they outgained the Scarlet Knights by more than 200 yards.

But there were a ton of questions about what Washington would look like this season after it lost essentially its entire starting lineup and coaching staff from last season’s team that reached the national championship game.

I know the win total before the season was 6.5 and the Huskies might not reach that, but winning six games and playing in a bowl with a roster that was completely made over in the offseason and a first-year coaching staff would be a success. At 4-3 with home games against USC and UCLA remaining, Washington is on track to do that. — Morales

Can the Big Ten really get four teams in the Playoff? — Michael C.

It depends on how chalk holds up throughout November. If the favorites win the games, then absolutely. But we know there will be an upset or three before Thanksgiving weekend, which will put everyone on edge on Dec. 8. Let’s play out the scenarios.

If we’re projecting without upsets, Oregon goes unbeaten at 12-0 and Ohio State beats both Penn State and Indiana to finish 11-1. They’re your Big Ten championship participants. Then both Penn State and Indiana are 11-1 with Illinois at 10-2. The Nittany Lions’ strength-of-schedule boosts them ahead of Indiana — especially with a victory against Illinois — but all four are in the Playoff. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where an 11-1 team in either the Big Ten or SEC gets left out.

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Tennessee knocks Alabama out of bracket

But we know someone will slip up somewhere on the road. Perhaps it happens to the Hoosiers if they still have to use backup quarterback Tayven Jackson at Michigan State on Nov. 2. Maybe Penn State falls this week at Wisconsin or Nov. 23 at Minnesota. Maybe Oregon has a bad day Saturday against Illinois or at Michigan on Nov. 2. Even Ohio State could suffer another setback at Penn State or against Indiana.

If Penn State ends the season 10-2, then the selection committee will place its resume alongside teams four and five from the SEC, Notre Dame and the No. 2s from the Big 12 and ACC. Then the committee will have to decide who looks more impressive among Tennessee, LSU, Notre Dame, Clemson/Miami and Iowa State/BYU for the final three at-large spots. That’s presuming the Big Ten and SEC already have three locked up.

To answer your question, the Big Ten is in line for four spots today. But that could change as soon as Saturday night. — Dochterman

(Top photo of Oregon running back Jay Harris: Marc Lebryk / Imagn Images)

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Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins the Peach Bowl, and why?

Published

6 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins the Peach Bowl, and why?

It’s a family affair for the Big Ten with a spot in the national championship game on the line as No. 1 seed Indiana squares off against fifth-seed Oregon in the Peach Bowl semifinal.

Indiana has smashed up just about everything in sight, marching out to a 14-0 record with its first outright Big Ten title since 1945 by edging out reigning champ Ohio State and then pounding the bewildered SEC runner-up Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.

If they go all the way, the Hoosiers would become the first 16-0 team in college football since Yale did it back in 1894. Not bad for a program that has the most losses all-time.

Oregon is a 13-1 team with that one loss coming courtesy of these Hoosiers back during the regular season, but is coming off a dominant 23-0 victory over Big 12 champion Texas Tech in the quarterfinal round.

Indiana vs. Oregon: Keys to the game

Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

1. Indiana’s Defensive Discipline vs. Dante Moore

Indiana’s biggest edge arguably remains a very disciplined defense that already solved Oregon’s scheme once, holding Dante Moore to 186 passing yards with two interceptions and six sacks in the October win at Eugene.

The Hoosiers compress space, tackle cleanly, and rarely bust coverages, forcing Moore to sustain long drives instead of living on explosive downfield gainers.

Key to this rematch is turning that discipline into disruption again: winning on early downs, disguising pressures, and closing throwing lanes so Oregon’s timing‑based pass game never finds a rhythm.

If Indiana can keep Moore uncomfortable without giving up cheap shots in the deep field, it tilts the game back toward another grind that favors the unbeaten No. 1 seed.

2. Oregon’s Early‑Down Efficiency and Protection

Oregon’s path back into the national title picture depends on staying ahead of the chains and protecting Moore far better than in the first meeting.

This is not a max‑protect offense; the Ducks prefer to get the ball out quickly on first and second down to avoid Indiana dictating pressure looks on third and long.

With top back Noah Whittington healthy and Jordon Davison sidelined, Oregon must manufacture run efficiency with motion, RPOs, and constraint plays rather than stubborn downhill calls into Indiana’s stout front.

If that early‑down formula works, Moore’s accuracy, Oregon’s speed at receiver, and a more confident offensive line could finally stress a Hoosier defense that has thrived when opponents become predictable.

3. Mendoza, Complementary Run Game, and Game Control

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has turned Indiana into a complete, ball‑control machine, pairing 36 touchdown passes with just six interceptions while adding some key rushing scores.

The Hoosiers average over 220 rushing yards per game, using a deep backfield and a physical line to stay on schedule and keep their defense fresh.

Against an Oregon defense coming off a 23–0 shutout of Texas Tech, Indiana’s key is balance: steady run success, efficient intermediate throws, and red‑zone poise that converts long, methodical drives into sevens instead of threes.

If Mendoza controls tempo again, limits negative plays, and avoids the rare turnover, Indiana’s complementary profile again looks built to survive a tight matchup.

Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Line: Indiana -3.5, 48.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

If a team of destiny exists, it might be Indiana. Give them credit: they created that destiny themselves, playing a punishing brand of defense and riding an efficient offense behind a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.

Dante Moore had the worst game of his season against the Hoosiers’ defense, and his late interception, one of two on the day, helped seal the deal in what remains Oregon’s only loss this year.

Jordon Davison was the Ducks’ leading rusher in that first meeting, and his absence in the rematch makes it difficult to see this going another way, in particular after watching the Oregon offense fail to capitalize as much as it could have in the Orange Bowl.

Having their rushing output compromised to that degree will only put more pressure on Moore to win the game, and Indiana’s secondary coverage unit is a little too good to let that happen. The Hoosiers will play for the national championship.

College Football HQ picks…

Indiana wins 33-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch the Peach Bowl Game

When: Fri., Jan. 9
Where: Atlanta

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

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Oregon turns to Peyton Woodyard, Zach Grisham to fill secondary gaps for Peach Bowl

Published

18 hours ago

January 8, 2026

Press Room

Oregon turns to Peyton Woodyard, Zach Grisham to fill secondary gaps for Peach Bowl

ATLANTA — Oregon’s options for who to rotate in at safety and nickel in the Peach Bowl are finite, but not inexperienced.

Peyton Woodyard has 22 tackles and an interception as a backup this season. The sophomore is the next player behind starting deep safeties Dillon Thieneman and Aaron Flowers and could also play nickel behind Jadon Canady in the Peach Bowl against No. 1 Indiana.

Woodyard was UO’s only freshman defensive player not to redshirt last season. Though he fell behind Flowers and Lopa prior to the season, he’s still prepared to play a significant role, which could come in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal.

“You’d have more concern if you had a guy that wasn’t preparing like he wasn’t a starter,” defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi said. “But that’s the way he prepares. I’ve got the faith that we’re not going to put somebody out there that we don’t trust. … I don’t think if he’s out there competing for us, I wouldn’t hesitate one bit to put (him) out there.”

No. 5 Oregon lost Kingston Lopa and Daylen Austin to the transfer portal since the start of the playoff.

Walk-on Zach Grisham (44) and Woodyard (30) have the most snaps at nickel behind Canady and Austin. Woodyard has played 171 snaps this season, but just one in the Orange Bowl when Canady came out for a play. He played three snaps at deep safety during the October 11 game against Indiana.

Grisham has nine tackles in 11 games, splitting time between defense and special teams. He came in for the last defensive play in the Orange Bowl.

Lupoi called Grisham “an absolute baller” for the effort he brings to the field.

The Ducks may need to rely on one or both for a few snaps in the biggest game of the season.

“(Woodyard) brings a lot of range and he’s really smart,” Flowers said. “A really vocal leader. Great tackler. I feel super comfortable playing out there with him. Zach, he’s a man of the game. He knows every position; he knows star, safety. He’s really quick, really good man coverage.”

No. 1 Indiana (14-0) vs. No. 5 Oregon (13-1)

When: Friday, January 9
Time: 4:30 p.m. PT
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: ESPN
Stream: You can watch this game on DIRECTV (free trial) or with Sling (a Sling day pass to watch this game and more is just $4.99). Streaming broadcasts for this game will be available on these streaming services locally in Oregon and Washington, but may not be available outside of the Pacific Northwest, depending on your location.

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CFP Semifinals Preview, Picks: What to Expect in Oregon-Indiana, Ole Miss-Miami

Published

1 day ago

January 7, 2026

Press Room

CFP Semifinals Preview, Picks: What to Expect in Oregon-Indiana, Ole Miss-Miami

Two powerhouse matchups. One step away from the national championship.

After a longer wait between games in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, we should have two fantastic games in the semifinals, and Vegas thinks so, too.

Miami (Fla.) and Ole Miss go head-to-head fresh off their stunning upsets over Ohio State and Georgia, respectively, in the quarterfinals. Indiana and Oregon, meanwhile, will meet up in the Peach Bowl in a game that I’m really excited about.

So, let’s dive into what I think will happen in each game, and who I have winning to advance to the national championship game.

Fiesta Bowl: No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

When I first started watching film of this matchup, the first thing I thought of — and Miami fans are going to love this, because the last thing they want is me picking Miami after picking against the Hurricanes in the first two rounds — is that this Ole Miss team resembles the SMU team it lost to.

By the way, it’s an SMU team I just spent time around during the Holiday Bowl and I had a conversation with SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee about Miami. We both talked about how dominant Miami is on the offense and defensive lines — that defensive line is excellent. But one thing SMU was able to do was utilize tempo on offense. So, a quicker tempo to try and tire those pass rushers while getting the ball on the perimeter as much in the first half as possible. Once the pass rushers got tired in the second half, it was easier for SMU to play offense and and it took advantage of that.

Well, Ole Miss can do that. I think Trinidad Chambliss is a better quarterback than SMU’s Kevin Jennings. Ole Miss can run the ball with Kewan Lacy. The Rebels can get on the perimeter and Chambliss can create. He’s wonderful at creating. He was so good against Georgia, buying time, showing off his strong and accurate arm.

Miami takes on Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl 🔥

So, at first blush, I liked Ole Miss in this game and the question for me was whether it would be able to hold up at the line of scrimmage. But that’s not the main question for me with this game. The main question of this game is who is coaching for Ole Miss? I cannot believe we’re in this situation where the head coach of a team playing in the semifinal is saying, “Well, I don’t really know what’s going on with the offensive coaching staff.” Are we kidding? What in the world is going on? In what world are we operating?

This is what I find so frustrating about this situation. This moment is meant to be so special for the players. It should be about Chambliss, Lacy and all these players who’ve put themselves in a position to win the national championship. Yet, they’re not being given the best possible opportunity to do that. This is not a coach’s moment.

Now, we’re talking about whether Ole Miss offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is back to game plan for the offense? I think Weis should’ve stayed at Ole Miss in the first place, but he followed Lane Kiffin to LSU and is still working with the Rebels through the CFP. Weis proved that he can call plays and that he doesn’t need to be under Kiffin in the win over Georgia. But now we’re sitting here and we don’t know what’s going on with Ole Miss’ offensive coaches. They should be there to build, implement, execute and call the game plan. It’s not just about who’s there on Thursday, it’s about who’s there the last seven or eight days. What should’ve happened in this situation was Kiffin allowing those coaches to remain in Oxford in a full capacity until the end of Ole Miss’ CFP run.

Miami takes down Ohio State, Indiana rolls Alabama, Georgia stunned by Ole Miss & Oregon advances

Because of that, it has made me rethink what I believe will take place in this game. What I know about this game is that Miami has something that it can rely on, and it’s at the line of scrimmage on both sides. The offensive line with tackle Francis Mauigoa and the run game with running back Mark Fletcher Jr. have allowed Miami to not put quarterback Carson Beck in a position where he needs to throw the ball on third-and-long. How many times was he able to pick up a first down on a first-and-manageable? He had huge pickups with his feet, and he hasn’t needed to throw the ball 150 yards so far in this playoff. If Miami can control the tempo and line of scrimmage in this game, it’ll have a great chance to win this game.

On the flip side, it’s about corralling Chambliss if you’re Miami’s defense. If he can create, who knows how many points Ole Miss can score? This is a very good Ole Miss offense and it’s led by a quarterback who can force a lot of problems.

What do I think is going to happen? The quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted, and Miami fans, I’m sorry to do this to you, but I’ve got to go with the Canes.

Pick: Miami (Fla.) 30, Ole Miss 24 (Miami -3.5)

Peach Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Indiana

This is going to be one heck of a game, and we’ve already seen these two teams go head-to-head. We saw Indiana beat Oregon in Eugene in an incredible game that was tied in the fourth quarter before the Hoosiers pulled away with an incredible drive from Fernando Mendoza.

Let me talk a little bit about Indiana. You’re here because you love this sport like I do, but there are things that can be frustrating and there’s one thing that’s frustrating with this Indiana team. There’s an overlooking of Indiana that’s happening right now across the country. The reason I know that is that Indiana’s résumé is the best résumé in all of college football, without a doubt. Indiana’s the most tested team in the country. The Hoosiers are 14-0 and have handled everybody. They have only given up more than 15 offensive points one time this year, and that was in a game on the road against Penn State. Indiana has only given up more than one touchdown in two games. This is the team that’s so sound, mistake-free and just absolutely bludgeoned Alabama.

Oregon faces Indiana in a Big Ten CFP semifinal 🔥

If you listen to some of the loudest voices, you get a sense that they think anyone can win the national championship. But if this Indiana team had any other logo, we would all be talking about whether this is the best team we’ve ever seen in college football. Yes, I know I’ve been guilty of this as well with the way I talked about Ohio State earlier this season, but no team in the history of our sport has ever gone 16-0. Granted, that’s a scheduling thing, but Indiana has a chance to do that and it’s been one of the great defensive teams we’ve had in a long time.

So no, this isn’t a wide-open playoff. Indiana and Oregon are the odds-on favorites to win it all by a wide margin because of how tested they’ve been. That’s specifically the case for Indiana, which beat three teams that played in the CFP quarterfinals. No other team can say that. This team stands on business as the best team in college football.

To that end, there are four tight games Indiana has played this year. If you’re Oregon, you’ve got to mimic those tight games. Oregon understands that blueprint because it played in one of those games. The blueprint isn’t simple, but in every one of those games, a few things happen. One of them is attacking Indiana’s strengths and making it work to succeed. The first area I would go after is Indiana’s run game. In all four of its close matchups, Indiana ran for less than 4 yards per carry. You have to do that just to remain in the game. When Indiana is able to run the ball efficiently, it’s almost unstoppable on third down. Indiana had the No. 1 third-down offense in college football because it’s in short-yardage situations.

Second, Oregon has to find a way to score in the red zone, and I’m not talking about field goals. One of the things that goes unnoticed with Indiana is how elite its defense has been and how strong its red zone defense is. Indiana is No. 1 in the country in red zone touchdown percentage against at 26%. It’s a low number that we haven’t seen in several years. Oregon was 0-for-3 in scoring red zone touchdowns in the first matchup.

Indiana adds Josh Hoover and Nick Marsh from the transfer portal 👏

Lastly, Oregon has to play cleanly against this Indiana team. Indiana plays clean and doesn’t make mistakes. Indiana is ice-cold, no mistakes, to quote Ice Man from “Top Gun.” Maybe we should start calling Curt Cignetti Ice Man because Indiana is phenomenal at limiting penalties and turnovers. Indiana posted the third-fewest penalties per game this season and has only committed eight turnovers so far. Indiana’s turnover margin is plus-18, which is tied for first in the nation.

Those are three things Oregon needs to do just to be in the game late. Even then, that might not be enough because Indiana might be the most clutch team in college football. The Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, was clutch in all four of Indiana’s tight wins this year.

This Oregon team is no slouch, though. What Dan Lanning has built at Oregon can’t be overstated. Oregon is 38-4 in the last three years, losing to Washington twice (played for national championship in 2023), Ohio State (won national championship in 2024) and Indiana earlier this year. This is a great program that’s deep and strong at almost every position. It just happens to be going against a team that’s suffocatingly good.

Indiana dominates Alabama, Are they the new powerhouse of college football?

When Oregon’s offense gets its chances, quarterback Dante Moore has got to capitalize. Oregon can’t have mistakes and miscues. Lanning is going to have to manage a really great game because if you miss a chance against Indiana, there’s a good chance the Hoosiers are going to win the game.

If there’s one team that can do it, though, it would be Oregon. If you take away sacks, Oregon ran the ball for 4.8 yards per carry in its first matchup against Indiana. That’s the best way to protect Moore. We saw Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson struggle against Indiana when their respective teams didn’t run the ball efficiently and early in down sets.

I can talk all day about this game, but I’ve got to make a pick. I’ve got Indiana winning and covering, although this will be a phenomenal game.

Pick: Indiana 27, Oregon 21 (Indiana -4.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

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