Miami takes on Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl 🔥
The 2025-26 winter season is getting underway, so it’s time to take a look at the top returning girls basketball players around the state.
Unfortunately, one of the obvious choices — junior wing Kaitlyn Siegner of Crane, a two-time all-state selection and Class 1A co-player of the year last year, averaging 19.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, five assists and five steals — tore her ACL during volleyball season and will miss the basketball season.
The 6-3 center announced herself at the 6A state tournament her sophomore year, when she broke the tournament record for rebounds held by Cameron Brink to help the Panthers win the title. She was the Southwest Conference player of the year as a junior, averaging 15.6 points and 9.8 rebounds, and signed with San Diego State last month. “She had an outstanding summer with Cal Stars EYBL and was one of the most dominant rebounders statistically in the country,” said coach Tom Cole. “Her confidence has continued to grow offensively, and her athleticism is truly unique. She is able to impact the game on both sides of the ball and is one of the best athletes in the state of Oregon.”
Arnold was a first-team all-Three Rivers League selection last season for the Lions, averaging 7.2 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.4 steals.
The Sacramento State signee was thrust into the point guard role for the Panthers after the departure of Taylor Young to Crater, and she thrived at the position, making the all-SWC second team while averaging 7.8 points and 3.6 assists. “She has learned a lot since last year,” said coach Tom Cole. “She’s much more poised and comfortable and has improved her offensive and defensive game over the summer. Her speed, length and motor are tremendous assets.”
Cougars coach Glenn Norris called his 4A all-state honorable mention guard “a difference maker with her ability to score from anywhere and create shots for others.” Bennett averaged 10.1 points, three assists, 2.6 rebounds and 2.1 steals in helping Cascade place fifth at state. “Improved team depth should give Olivia more opportunities to shine,” Norris said.
The 6-1 wing recently signed with UNLV following a junior season that saw her win co-NWOC player of the year and second-team all-state honors, averaging a double-double (14.9 points, 11.5 rebounds) to go with 3.9 assists, 2.5 steals and 2.2 blocks. She has over 1,100 career points and 800 career rebounds. “Ava is the engine of our team and has been for three years,” said coach Lucas Fiorante. “She is playing free and with a new sense of confidence in her game. Some of Ava’s greatest strengths never show up in a box score, though. She is an emotional leader in all the right ways—she plays with passion, competes, and genuinely loves the game and the people she plays it with.”
Cameron Brink. Jazzy Davidson. We’ve been treated to some of the nation’s best talents in the metro area the past few years, and the next to come down the pike is Best, who offered a taste of what’s to come last year in leading the Timberwolves to the 6A title, averaging 15.1 points, 4.5 assists and 3.9 steals as a first-team all-state selection. “Love is the perfect point guard to lead a team,” said coach Wes Pappas. “She’s one of the best point guards in the nation. She has a super-high basketball IQ, sees the floor amazingly well and is a massively competitive kid.”
Buse was the Three Rivers League defensive player of the year and a 6A all-state honorable mention selection as a sophomore, stuffing the stat sheet by averaging 16.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 3.4 steals and 1.2 blocks.
The 6-0 wing has committed to Division II University of Tampa after earning 5A all-state honorable mention as a junior, averaging 12.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals and 1.6 blocks to lead the Storm to the state tournament. “Kalyn has shown a lot of growth in her abilities on and off the court,” said coach Henry Rogers. “She has grown to be incredibly deliberate with the ball and makes correct reads and plays with intentionality. Kalyn is also respected deeply by all her teammates and has stepped into a role that is both encouraging and constructive.”
The Seagulls have a veteran group coming off their first 4A state tournament trip since 2017, but their “tried and true,” as coach Marla Olstedt called Corder, led the way as an honorable mention all-state selection, averaging 11.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and three steals in 28 minutes a game. “She has the ability to take over offensively and continues to show her leadership skills and maturity,” Olstedt said. “She has the ability to make plays on both offense and defense and can make plays for her teammates, too.”
Cordle will enjoy one final season playing for her father, Marc, with the RedHawks before heading to play at Lewis-Clark State in Idaho. The 5-8 wing helped them reach the cusp of the program’s first 5A state title in March, averaging 14 points and five rebounds. “She is a senior and a veteran in our program,” Coach Cordle said. “She brings leadership and knowledge that will help us be successful.”
The all-state honorable mention selection averaged 8.4 points and a team-high 7.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists to help the Tigers finish sixth at the 4A tournament and post their first 20-win season since 2016.
Dawkins might get lost in the shadow of some of her more bally-hooed teammates, but the 6-foot guard is a defensive stalwart in their amoeba-like press and averaged 10.4 points and six rebounds for last year’s 6A champs. “Kendall has a tremendous work ethic,” said coach Wes Pappas. “She’s a three level scorer and a tough-as-nails defender.”
Donaldson has been at the forefront of the revival of two RedHawks programs, leading the volleyball team to back-to-back 5A state titles and the basketball team to within seconds of capturing its first championship in March. Now, the University of Wyoming signee looks to build off a campaign that saw her average 23 points and eight rebounds in earning first-team all-state honors. “She had a great club season over the winter,” said coach Marc Cordle. “She’s a veteran in our program.”
The Tigers made it back to the 4A state tournament for the first time since the 2020 edition was canceled due to the COVID pandemic, and now they’ll look to their top scorer and second-team all-state selection, who averaged 12 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.9 steals and 2.5 assists, to get them back after they placed sixth in March.
The second-team all-Metro League selection will look to help the Beavers return to the Chiles Center after a two-year absence after averaging 12 points, six rebounds and 2.1 steals a year ago.
Forde is a force in the interior for the Hawks, receiving 6A all-state honorable mention as a sophomore when she averaged 18 points, seven rebounds and two steals.
Forney had a solid first season with the Crusaders, with the 6-5 post winning Metro League defensive player of the year and first-team all-league honors after averaging nine points, seven boards and five blocks as a freshman. “She is a true paint defender and a gifted shot-blocker who anchors our D,” said coach Jason Lowery. “As a talented post, she is the hub of our halfcourt offensive attack. Her as a post threat opens things for our offense and her teammates.”
Green had an immediate impact when she arrived from Hil-Hi last season, averaging 16.2 points, 10.6 rebounds and 3.5 blocks and leading the Jaguars to a 15-game improvement. She signed with Howard University last month. “Kiara has been an absolute joy to coach,” said coach Eddie Littlefield. “Her growth over the summer has been tremendous, and her maturity and commitment to development have elevated everyone around her.”
Hall was the Millers’ leading scorer last year at 16 points per game to go with 4.5 rebounds and 2.2 steals to make the 5A all-state honorable mention list and lift them to the sixth-place trophy at state.
The former Cascade transfer had an immediate impact on the eventual 4A state champion Eagles, earning second-team all-state honors running the point while averaging 13.8 points and 4.2 assists.
Heiken won 4A player of the year honors following a sophomore season that saw her lead the Warriors in scoring (12.5 ppg), rebounding (6.5) and steals (2.7) while shooting 52.1% from the field for the state finalists.
Herzberg flashed the potential to play D-1 ball during a fantastic freshman campaign during which she averaged 15.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals to make the all-Metro League first team.
The third Panther to sign with a Division I school last month will join Barlow at Sacramento State after the 5-11 wing received 6A all-state honorable mention as a junior, averaging 11.1 points and four rebounds. “She had a great summer and has developed significant confidence in her ability to score from multiple places on the floor,” said coach Tom Cole. “Her defensive ability has also improved.”
For all the talent in the Three Rivers League last season, it was Jordan who won player of the year honors, with the Washington State signee also earning second-team all-state recognition after averaging 15.8 points, six rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.3 steals to lead the Lions to fourth place at the state tournament.
Lackey worked in the offseason to improve her strength as the 6-2 post looks to build off a freshman campaign that saw her earn first-team all-PIL honors and draw an invite from USA Basketball to participate in the 2025 Women’s U16 National Team trials.
Lathen helped the Lady Cavers reach the second round of the 6A playoffs last year as a freshman, averaging 11.1 points, four rebounds and three assists as a second-team all-Southwest Conference selection. First-year coach Ethan Lackey said that an emphasis for her in the offseason was “making an impact without scoring, and she has found the ability to do that with her rebounding and on-ball defense. Millie also has great vision in the full-court, which allows our team to get out and run. She is not settling on offense; she has a will to get to the rim.”
The Lions’ 5-7 point guard averaged 16.2 points, five rebounds, three steals and 2.3 assists while also getting her hand on four deflections to earn Cowapa League player of the year honors. She plans to major in engineering at Oregon State. “Devan is such a strong point in our program,” said coach Jillian Ross. “She isn’t just a scorer, but she is a vocal leader. Everyone wants a Devan on their team, and we are lucky enough to have her.”
Lempea has played an integral role in turning around a program that went eight years between winning seasons before her arrival, leading them to 60 wins in her first three seasons and back-to-back 2A state tournaments for the first time since 2002-03. The first-team all-state point guard averaged 13.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 4.4 steals as a junior. “Mylie is a tone-setter for our program,” said coach Tracie Brockey. “I love her passion for the game. She helps us live out our core covenants — unity, integrity and respect. I’m not ready for her and her classmates to be seniors.”
The reigning Metro League player of the year and 6A second-team all-state selection signed with the University of Portland following a junior season that saw her average 17.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.6 steals to lead the Skyhawks to a sixth-place trophy at state.
Massey is one of the top unsigned shooting guards in the state coming off a junior season in which she made the all-PIL first team to help the Astros reach the 6A second round.
McMullen was one of the critical players who led the Warriors to the program’s first 3A state title after five previous finals appearances, averaging 14 points to earn second-team all-state honors. “Alyssa has been rock-solid for our program for three years now,” said her coach and father, Jed. “She is our long-range shooter and really helps us stretch the defense. I’m proud that she has been working on attacking the basket this offseason.”
Miadich is another underrated role player for the 6A state champions, earning second-team all-Three Rivers League last season when the 5-8 guard averaged 8.7 points and 2.6 steals. “She’s another strong 3-point shooter who has really developed a scorer’s mentality,” said coach Wes Pappas.
The 5-8 guard, the younger sister of Portland Thorns midfielder Olivia Moultrie, is on pace to join Jill Noe (2,003 points from 1999-2002) as the second Wildcat to score 2,000 career points after the 5A all-state first-teamer averaged 20.1 points, 6.2 assists, 4.7 steals and 3.9 rebounds while shooting 34.8% from deep as a junior, bringing her career total to 1,667 points. She signed with Utah Valley last month.
The 5-6 point guard led the Panthers to their second Intermountain Conference title in a row and a fifth-place finish at the 5A state tournament — the first time they made consecutive state appearances since 1986-87 — earning IMC player of the year and second-team all-state honors after averaging 9.8 points, three assists and 2.3 steals.
Oluwafemi shined in her first season with the Beavers after transferring from Westview, averaging 13.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and two steals to earn first-team all-Metro League honors. “Dara means a lot to our program with her scoring and defending,” coach John Naro said of his 5-9 combo guard. “I am looking to her to lead this team by being the example on both sides of the court. I see improvements in her strength and ability to score in different ways — from driving to shooting 3s.”
Padilla doesn’t put up big numbers for the Timberwolves, but that’s not where the 6-1 post who recently signed with Portland State makes her bones. “Alex is the best defender in the state,” said coach Wes Pappas. “You can put her anywhere on the floor, and she will absolutely wreck the other team’s offense.”
The 5-5 point guard will head to Bushnell University in Eugene to play next year, but first, she looks to lead the Rams back to the 3A playoffs (she was a second-team all-state selection for Regis as a sophomore) after helping Salem Academy win the 2A title last year, earning first-team all-state honors while averaging 15 points and three steals. “This year, she is back and was welcomed with open arms,” said second-year coach Tim Manning. “Clara is a leader by example. She is always the first one to the gym and the last to leave. She is indispensable to our team and just a great kid overall.”
Rasmussen helped lead the Bulldogs to a third-place finish at the 4A state tournament as a freshman, averaging 12 points and five rebounds as the 5-11 wing earned all-state honorable mention. “Molly showed a lot of growth last year as a freshman just with the experience of playing varsity basketball,” said coach Jason Ramos. “She was our most consistent performer this summer, and we saw her become more comfortable being in any situation — more assertive on the floor and essentially a real threat whenever she has the ball.”
Romero-Ah battled a bulged disc in her back for most of last season to be named Midwestern League co-defensive player of the year and earn second-team 5A all-state honors, averaging 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, five assists and 4.8 steals.
Samek received 4A all-state first-team recognition following a sophomore campaign that saw her average 14.5 points and 5.3 rebounds for the state champion Eagles, including a game-high 18 points in their title-game win over Philomath.
Schmunk improved from 4A all-state honorable mention selection as a sophomore to a first-team honoree last season, when she averaged 13.4 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.1 steals to help the Cougars place fifth at the state tournament. “Roz is a very athletic and versatile player who can fill up a stat sheet,” said coach Glenn Norris. “Her ability to play inside and out on both ends of the floor makes Roz a formidable opponent.”
The 6-0 post won Skyline Conference player of the year and first-team 4A all-state honors as a freshman, recording 20 double-doubles during the season and averaging 14.4 points and 12.1 rebounds to lead the Hornets to a fourth-place finish at state.
The Valley 10 Conference player of the year was also a first-team all-state selection, leading the Cougars to a sixth-place finish at the 1A state tournament while averaging eight points, eight rebounds and four assists.
Summers became a starter for the first time last season and blossomed as a 6-1 post complementing first-team all-state guard Macie Arzner, making the all-Pacific Conference first team while averaging 11 points and 8.8 rebounds.
Starwalt transferred from nearby Crescent Valley to joining the Bulldogs last year and emerged as one of the state’s top point guards, averaging 22 points — shooting 43% from distance and 90.2% at the foul line — 6.3 assists and three steals to earn second-team all-state and lead them to the 5A tournament. She has 21 Division I offers under her belt. “This player continues to impress me,” said coach Shawn Stinson. “She spends hours upon hours in the gym every week, getting stronger and becoming a great defensive player as well. She is the cornerstone of our team; she makes us go.”
The Eastern Oregon League co-player of the year and second-team all-state selection averaged 12.4 points and 9.1 rebounds to power the Vikings to a third-place finish at the 3A state tournament.
The first-team all-state point guard led Banks to within two points of a second 3A state championship in three years, also earning Coastal Range League defensive player of the year honors for the second straight year while averaging nine points, four assists and three steals last year. “She is a tremendous player on both ends of the floor and an even better kid,” said coach Nick Rizzo. “Her quickness on both the defensive and offensive ends present challenges for her opponents.”
Young has been a winner at both the 6A and 5A levels, helping South Medford win a state championship in 2024 before returning home to join the Comets last season, leading them to the program’s first title while breaking the school’s single-season records for points (589; 21 ppg) and 3-pointers (57 on 37.3% shooting) to go with 3.7 assists and 4.4 steals. The Oregon State signee opened the year with 1,389 career points, then poured in a school-record 41 points in a season-opening win over Bend.
The 5-10 combo guard is the daughter of former NBA player Martell Webster, who was picked sixth in the 2005 draft by the Trail Blazers and spent a decade in the league. Nylah was a first-team all-Mt. Hood Conference selection last year, averaging 18 points, six rebounds, three assists and three steals for the Hawks.
The 5-10 wing is a two-time Central Valley Conference player of the year who earned 6A all-state honorable mention last year, when the Portland State signee averaged 17 points, seven rebounds and three assists. “Emma is dynamic on the court, highlighted by the fact she can play all five positions,” said first-year coach Justin Duke. “Her versatility, combined with a high basketball IQ and shotmaking ability, make her one of the top returning players in the state.”
— René Ferrán is a freelance reporter for The Oregonian/Oregon Live. René grew up in Portland and has written about high school sports in the Pacific Northwest since 1993, with his work featured at the Idaho Press Tribune, Tri-City Herald, Seattle Times, Tacoma News Tribune, The Columbian and High School on SI. He can be reached at rferran.oregonianhssports@gmail.com
It’s a family affair for the Big Ten with a spot in the national championship game on the line as No. 1 seed Indiana squares off against fifth-seed Oregon in the Peach Bowl semifinal.
Indiana has smashed up just about everything in sight, marching out to a 14-0 record with its first outright Big Ten title since 1945 by edging out reigning champ Ohio State and then pounding the bewildered SEC runner-up Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.
If they go all the way, the Hoosiers would become the first 16-0 team in college football since Yale did it back in 1894. Not bad for a program that has the most losses all-time.
Oregon is a 13-1 team with that one loss coming courtesy of these Hoosiers back during the regular season, but is coming off a dominant 23-0 victory over Big 12 champion Texas Tech in the quarterfinal round.
Indiana’s biggest edge arguably remains a very disciplined defense that already solved Oregon’s scheme once, holding Dante Moore to 186 passing yards with two interceptions and six sacks in the October win at Eugene.
The Hoosiers compress space, tackle cleanly, and rarely bust coverages, forcing Moore to sustain long drives instead of living on explosive downfield gainers.
Key to this rematch is turning that discipline into disruption again: winning on early downs, disguising pressures, and closing throwing lanes so Oregon’s timing‑based pass game never finds a rhythm.
If Indiana can keep Moore uncomfortable without giving up cheap shots in the deep field, it tilts the game back toward another grind that favors the unbeaten No. 1 seed.
Oregon’s path back into the national title picture depends on staying ahead of the chains and protecting Moore far better than in the first meeting.
This is not a max‑protect offense; the Ducks prefer to get the ball out quickly on first and second down to avoid Indiana dictating pressure looks on third and long.
With top back Noah Whittington healthy and Jordon Davison sidelined, Oregon must manufacture run efficiency with motion, RPOs, and constraint plays rather than stubborn downhill calls into Indiana’s stout front.
If that early‑down formula works, Moore’s accuracy, Oregon’s speed at receiver, and a more confident offensive line could finally stress a Hoosier defense that has thrived when opponents become predictable.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has turned Indiana into a complete, ball‑control machine, pairing 36 touchdown passes with just six interceptions while adding some key rushing scores.
The Hoosiers average over 220 rushing yards per game, using a deep backfield and a physical line to stay on schedule and keep their defense fresh.
Against an Oregon defense coming off a 23–0 shutout of Texas Tech, Indiana’s key is balance: steady run success, efficient intermediate throws, and red‑zone poise that converts long, methodical drives into sevens instead of threes.
If Mendoza controls tempo again, limits negative plays, and avoids the rare turnover, Indiana’s complementary profile again looks built to survive a tight matchup.
Line: Indiana -3.5, 48.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
If a team of destiny exists, it might be Indiana. Give them credit: they created that destiny themselves, playing a punishing brand of defense and riding an efficient offense behind a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.
Dante Moore had the worst game of his season against the Hoosiers’ defense, and his late interception, one of two on the day, helped seal the deal in what remains Oregon’s only loss this year.
Jordon Davison was the Ducks’ leading rusher in that first meeting, and his absence in the rematch makes it difficult to see this going another way, in particular after watching the Oregon offense fail to capitalize as much as it could have in the Orange Bowl.
Having their rushing output compromised to that degree will only put more pressure on Moore to win the game, and Indiana’s secondary coverage unit is a little too good to let that happen. The Hoosiers will play for the national championship.
College Football HQ picks…
When: Fri., Jan. 9
Where: Atlanta
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network
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ATLANTA — Oregon’s options for who to rotate in at safety and nickel in the Peach Bowl are finite, but not inexperienced.
Peyton Woodyard has 22 tackles and an interception as a backup this season. The sophomore is the next player behind starting deep safeties Dillon Thieneman and Aaron Flowers and could also play nickel behind Jadon Canady in the Peach Bowl against No. 1 Indiana.
Woodyard was UO’s only freshman defensive player not to redshirt last season. Though he fell behind Flowers and Lopa prior to the season, he’s still prepared to play a significant role, which could come in Friday’s College Football Playoff semifinal.
“You’d have more concern if you had a guy that wasn’t preparing like he wasn’t a starter,” defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi said. “But that’s the way he prepares. I’ve got the faith that we’re not going to put somebody out there that we don’t trust. … I don’t think if he’s out there competing for us, I wouldn’t hesitate one bit to put (him) out there.”
No. 5 Oregon lost Kingston Lopa and Daylen Austin to the transfer portal since the start of the playoff.
Walk-on Zach Grisham (44) and Woodyard (30) have the most snaps at nickel behind Canady and Austin. Woodyard has played 171 snaps this season, but just one in the Orange Bowl when Canady came out for a play. He played three snaps at deep safety during the October 11 game against Indiana.
Grisham has nine tackles in 11 games, splitting time between defense and special teams. He came in for the last defensive play in the Orange Bowl.
Lupoi called Grisham “an absolute baller” for the effort he brings to the field.
The Ducks may need to rely on one or both for a few snaps in the biggest game of the season.
“(Woodyard) brings a lot of range and he’s really smart,” Flowers said. “A really vocal leader. Great tackler. I feel super comfortable playing out there with him. Zach, he’s a man of the game. He knows every position; he knows star, safety. He’s really quick, really good man coverage.”
No. 1 Indiana (14-0) vs. No. 5 Oregon (13-1)
Two powerhouse matchups. One step away from the national championship.
After a longer wait between games in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, we should have two fantastic games in the semifinals, and Vegas thinks so, too.
Miami (Fla.) and Ole Miss go head-to-head fresh off their stunning upsets over Ohio State and Georgia, respectively, in the quarterfinals. Indiana and Oregon, meanwhile, will meet up in the Peach Bowl in a game that I’m really excited about.
So, let’s dive into what I think will happen in each game, and who I have winning to advance to the national championship game.
When I first started watching film of this matchup, the first thing I thought of — and Miami fans are going to love this, because the last thing they want is me picking Miami after picking against the Hurricanes in the first two rounds — is that this Ole Miss team resembles the SMU team it lost to.
By the way, it’s an SMU team I just spent time around during the Holiday Bowl and I had a conversation with SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee about Miami. We both talked about how dominant Miami is on the offense and defensive lines — that defensive line is excellent. But one thing SMU was able to do was utilize tempo on offense. So, a quicker tempo to try and tire those pass rushers while getting the ball on the perimeter as much in the first half as possible. Once the pass rushers got tired in the second half, it was easier for SMU to play offense and and it took advantage of that.
Well, Ole Miss can do that. I think Trinidad Chambliss is a better quarterback than SMU’s Kevin Jennings. Ole Miss can run the ball with Kewan Lacy. The Rebels can get on the perimeter and Chambliss can create. He’s wonderful at creating. He was so good against Georgia, buying time, showing off his strong and accurate arm.
So, at first blush, I liked Ole Miss in this game and the question for me was whether it would be able to hold up at the line of scrimmage. But that’s not the main question for me with this game. The main question of this game is who is coaching for Ole Miss? I cannot believe we’re in this situation where the head coach of a team playing in the semifinal is saying, “Well, I don’t really know what’s going on with the offensive coaching staff.” Are we kidding? What in the world is going on? In what world are we operating?
This is what I find so frustrating about this situation. This moment is meant to be so special for the players. It should be about Chambliss, Lacy and all these players who’ve put themselves in a position to win the national championship. Yet, they’re not being given the best possible opportunity to do that. This is not a coach’s moment.
Now, we’re talking about whether Ole Miss offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. is back to game plan for the offense? I think Weis should’ve stayed at Ole Miss in the first place, but he followed Lane Kiffin to LSU and is still working with the Rebels through the CFP. Weis proved that he can call plays and that he doesn’t need to be under Kiffin in the win over Georgia. But now we’re sitting here and we don’t know what’s going on with Ole Miss’ offensive coaches. They should be there to build, implement, execute and call the game plan. It’s not just about who’s there on Thursday, it’s about who’s there the last seven or eight days. What should’ve happened in this situation was Kiffin allowing those coaches to remain in Oxford in a full capacity until the end of Ole Miss’ CFP run.
Because of that, it has made me rethink what I believe will take place in this game. What I know about this game is that Miami has something that it can rely on, and it’s at the line of scrimmage on both sides. The offensive line with tackle Francis Mauigoa and the run game with running back Mark Fletcher Jr. have allowed Miami to not put quarterback Carson Beck in a position where he needs to throw the ball on third-and-long. How many times was he able to pick up a first down on a first-and-manageable? He had huge pickups with his feet, and he hasn’t needed to throw the ball 150 yards so far in this playoff. If Miami can control the tempo and line of scrimmage in this game, it’ll have a great chance to win this game.
On the flip side, it’s about corralling Chambliss if you’re Miami’s defense. If he can create, who knows how many points Ole Miss can score? This is a very good Ole Miss offense and it’s led by a quarterback who can force a lot of problems.
What do I think is going to happen? The quickest way to be defeated is to be distracted, and Miami fans, I’m sorry to do this to you, but I’ve got to go with the Canes.
Pick: Miami (Fla.) 30, Ole Miss 24 (Miami -3.5)
This is going to be one heck of a game, and we’ve already seen these two teams go head-to-head. We saw Indiana beat Oregon in Eugene in an incredible game that was tied in the fourth quarter before the Hoosiers pulled away with an incredible drive from Fernando Mendoza.
Let me talk a little bit about Indiana. You’re here because you love this sport like I do, but there are things that can be frustrating and there’s one thing that’s frustrating with this Indiana team. There’s an overlooking of Indiana that’s happening right now across the country. The reason I know that is that Indiana’s résumé is the best résumé in all of college football, without a doubt. Indiana’s the most tested team in the country. The Hoosiers are 14-0 and have handled everybody. They have only given up more than 15 offensive points one time this year, and that was in a game on the road against Penn State. Indiana has only given up more than one touchdown in two games. This is the team that’s so sound, mistake-free and just absolutely bludgeoned Alabama.
If you listen to some of the loudest voices, you get a sense that they think anyone can win the national championship. But if this Indiana team had any other logo, we would all be talking about whether this is the best team we’ve ever seen in college football. Yes, I know I’ve been guilty of this as well with the way I talked about Ohio State earlier this season, but no team in the history of our sport has ever gone 16-0. Granted, that’s a scheduling thing, but Indiana has a chance to do that and it’s been one of the great defensive teams we’ve had in a long time.
So no, this isn’t a wide-open playoff. Indiana and Oregon are the odds-on favorites to win it all by a wide margin because of how tested they’ve been. That’s specifically the case for Indiana, which beat three teams that played in the CFP quarterfinals. No other team can say that. This team stands on business as the best team in college football.
To that end, there are four tight games Indiana has played this year. If you’re Oregon, you’ve got to mimic those tight games. Oregon understands that blueprint because it played in one of those games. The blueprint isn’t simple, but in every one of those games, a few things happen. One of them is attacking Indiana’s strengths and making it work to succeed. The first area I would go after is Indiana’s run game. In all four of its close matchups, Indiana ran for less than 4 yards per carry. You have to do that just to remain in the game. When Indiana is able to run the ball efficiently, it’s almost unstoppable on third down. Indiana had the No. 1 third-down offense in college football because it’s in short-yardage situations.
Second, Oregon has to find a way to score in the red zone, and I’m not talking about field goals. One of the things that goes unnoticed with Indiana is how elite its defense has been and how strong its red zone defense is. Indiana is No. 1 in the country in red zone touchdown percentage against at 26%. It’s a low number that we haven’t seen in several years. Oregon was 0-for-3 in scoring red zone touchdowns in the first matchup.
Lastly, Oregon has to play cleanly against this Indiana team. Indiana plays clean and doesn’t make mistakes. Indiana is ice-cold, no mistakes, to quote Ice Man from “Top Gun.” Maybe we should start calling Curt Cignetti Ice Man because Indiana is phenomenal at limiting penalties and turnovers. Indiana posted the third-fewest penalties per game this season and has only committed eight turnovers so far. Indiana’s turnover margin is plus-18, which is tied for first in the nation.
Those are three things Oregon needs to do just to be in the game late. Even then, that might not be enough because Indiana might be the most clutch team in college football. The Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, was clutch in all four of Indiana’s tight wins this year.
This Oregon team is no slouch, though. What Dan Lanning has built at Oregon can’t be overstated. Oregon is 38-4 in the last three years, losing to Washington twice (played for national championship in 2023), Ohio State (won national championship in 2024) and Indiana earlier this year. This is a great program that’s deep and strong at almost every position. It just happens to be going against a team that’s suffocatingly good.
When Oregon’s offense gets its chances, quarterback Dante Moore has got to capitalize. Oregon can’t have mistakes and miscues. Lanning is going to have to manage a really great game because if you miss a chance against Indiana, there’s a good chance the Hoosiers are going to win the game.
If there’s one team that can do it, though, it would be Oregon. If you take away sacks, Oregon ran the ball for 4.8 yards per carry in its first matchup against Indiana. That’s the best way to protect Moore. We saw Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson struggle against Indiana when their respective teams didn’t run the ball efficiently and early in down sets.
I can talk all day about this game, but I’ve got to make a pick. I’ve got Indiana winning and covering, although this will be a phenomenal game.
Pick: Indiana 27, Oregon 21 (Indiana -4.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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