New Mexico
New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42% – Emerson Polling
Heinrich 49%, Domenici 37%
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey in New Mexico finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 10 points, 52% to 42%, with 6% of voters undecided. Harris’ lead decreases to eight points when the candidate undecided voters lean toward is included. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Harris leads by 11, 51% to 40%, while 3% support Robert Kennedy Jr.
“Harris’ lead is similar to Joe Biden’s 10.8 point win over Trump in 2020,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted. “Independent voters in New Mexico break for Harris, 48% to 37%. Men break for Harris by a narrow two-point margin, 48% to 46%, while women break for Harris by 17 points, 55% to 38%.”
The economy is the top issue for 29% of New Mexico voters, followed by crime (18%), immigration (13%), education (11%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (6%), and threats to democracy (6%).
“Voters who find the economy to be the top issue break for Trump, 54% to 38%, crime, 47% to 45%, and immigration 89% to 9%. Voters who find education, healthcare, housing affordability, threats to democracy, and abortion all break for Harris significantly, an average of 82% to 15%.”
When asked who they trust more to handle immigration in New Mexico, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, 48% trust Harris more, and 46% trust Trump more; 6% trust neither candidate.
Fifty-three percent of voters have a favorable view of Vice President Harris, while 45% have an unfavorable view of Harris. Forty-two percent have a favorable view of Trump, while 57% have an unfavorable view of him.
In the U.S. Senate Election between incumbent Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Nella Domenici, 49% support Heinrich, 37% Domenici, 4% someone else, and 9% are undecided.
Democratic candidates lead the Republicans in all three U.S. House elections in New Mexico. In the 1st district, incumbent Democrat Melanie Ann Stansbury leads Republican Steve Jones 51% to 37%; 12% of voters are undecided. In the 2nd district, 50% support Democrat Gabe Vasquez, while 41% support Republican Yvette Herrell. Nine percent are undecided.
In the 3rd district, 52% support Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, while 39% support Republican Sharon Clahchishchilliage; 9% are undecided.
A majority of New Mexico voters say they feel less safe in New Mexico than they did five years ago, while 15% feel more safe and 32% feel the same amount of safe.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill New Mexico survey was conducted August 20-22, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=965, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 voter modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling and voter registration data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting cell phones via MMS-to-web text, landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (both lists provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.
FULL RESULTS
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — A successful University of New Mexico Lobo athletics season and the athletics director’s departure has culminated in players and coaches making moves.
The moves follow a successful 2025 season and the departure of athletics director Fernando Lovo.
Running back coach John Johnson, special teams coordinator Daniel Da Prato and wide receiver coach Colin Lockett are all leaving the Lobos after just one season. Johnson is headed to Iowa State while Da Prato is expected to join Minnesota and Lockett is headed to UCLA, all for the same jobs.
Johnson’s Lobo running backs ran for more than 1,400 yards. Da Prato’s special teams finished top-five nationally in kickoff returns.
Running back D.J. McKinney entered the portal, he confirmed on social media the day the portal officially opened. McKinney rushed for 464 yards and seven touchdowns with the Lobos.
Two players who received all-Mountain West Conference recognition also made moves. All-Mountain West tight-end Dorian Thomas, who caught for touchdowns for the Lobos, entered the portal. Meanwhile, all-Mountain West honorable mention punter Daniel Hughes is set to leave.
Others set to leave include:
- Cole Welliver, backup quarterback who played in one game
- Landon Williams, defensive end who graduated from La Cueva High School
- Randolph Kpai, senior linebacker who is at the end of his college football career without a waiver
After Lance St. Louis served as the starting long snapper for the Texas Longhorns for four seasons, special teams coordinator Jeff Banks landed an experienced replacement when New Mexico Lobos transfer Trey Dubuc pledged while on a visit to the Forty Acres.
The pledge from Dubuc ensures that Texas has experienced replacements for three specialists despite signing high school prospects at each position — with the SEC expanding to 105 scholarships in 2026, Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian can afford to develop high school recruits at those positions behind experienced transfers like Dubuc.
The Fort Lauderdale product started his career at USF after playing on two state championship teams at Cardinal Gibbons. A 6’1, 209-pounder, Dubuc redshirted during his freshman season in 2023 before appearing in one game as the backup long snapper the following year.
After transferring to New Mexico, Dubuc served as the starting long snapper while making two tackles for the Lobos.
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