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Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states

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Nevada shows biggest lead for Trump over Biden – 13 points – in new poll of swing states


Could the third time be the charm for Donald Trump in Nevada?

It certainly looks like a possibility based on a new poll by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Trump lost in 2016 by 2.4 percentage points to Hillary Clinton and in 2020 by about the same difference to Joe Biden.

But the new poll of six swing states shows that among likely voters surveyed in Nevada, former President Trump leads President Joe Biden by 13 percentage points: 51% to 38%.

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That difference may hinge on favorability.

Those with a “net unfavorable” view of Biden – somewhat or very unfavorable – is 64%. It rises to 70% net unfavorable among Nevada’s large nonpartisan population.

Regarding Trump, Nevada registered voters have a 49% net unfavorable view, according to those who responded to the poll. Fifty-four percent of registered nonpartisan have a net unfavorable view – 16 percentage points lower than for Biden.

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third-party candidates are added to the mix, the difference stays approximately the same: Trump 14 points ahead of Biden if the vote were held today.

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RFK Jr. would get 12% of Nevada’s votes, according to the survey.

As for whether he helps or harms one of the major party candidates, it doesn’t appear obvious: 10% of registered Republicans, 10% of Democrats and 15% of independents said they’d vote for RFK Jr.

Other poll findings – race/ethnicity, Rosen v. Brown

The poll shows Trump with a 9 percentage point lead in Nevada among registered Hispanic voters and a 6-point lead among “other” racial or ethnic minorities.

When Nevada voters were asked if they would support Democrat Jacky Rosen or Republican Sam Brown for U.S. Senate, Rosen holds a 2 percentage point advantage: 40% to 38%, which amounts to a toss-up based on the margin of error.

The Senate race shows a lot of room for movement, as about 23% of respondents said they didn’t know which one they’d pick or they refused to answer.

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Trump leading in most other swing states

Among all the swing states surveyed, Trump has a 6 percentage point lead with a margin of error of 1.9 points for the overall survey.

Trump has an advantage in all but one of the other swing states surveyed.

  • Arizona: Trump ahead by 6 percentage points among likely voters
  • Georgia: Trump ahead by 9
  • Michigan: Biden ahead by 1
  • Pennsylvania: Trump ahead by 3
  • Wisconsin: Trump ahead by 1

The margin of error in Nevada’s results is reported as 4.5 percentage points.

The polls were conducted from April 28 to May 9, and 21% of the surveys of Nevada Hispanic voters were conducted in Spanish.

How this poll compares to others

An Emerson College/The Hill poll released April 30 showed the presidential race much tighter in Nevada, with Trump having a 1-point lead over Biden.

A Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, also in April, showed Trump up by 8 percent points in Nevada while one in March by the Wall Street Journal had Trump ahead by 4.

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However, the latest results track with another New York Times/Siena College poll about six months ago that showed Trump with a 12-point lead over Biden.

Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to mrobison@rgj.com or comment on Mark’s Greater Reno Facebook page.



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Is USPS breaking vow not to use Sacramento for Northern Nevada mail?

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Is USPS breaking vow not to use Sacramento for Northern Nevada mail?


After widespread condemnation last year, the U.S. Postal Service backed away from plans to move its Reno mail-processing operations to Sacramento — but did it stay true to what it told the public?

The question arose recently after letters sent from one Carson City address to another in Carson City were both postmarked in Sacramento.

Northern Nevadans did not want first class mail sent from one Northern Nevada address to another going first to California. They sent a unified message to the USPS all the way up to the postmaster general.

Critics of the USPS plan were especially worried about delays from mail having to go back and forth over the Sierra during winter.

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The Washoe County District Attorney’s office filed a lawsuit over the plan, the Washoe County Commission voted to oppose the plan, public comment was universally opposed, and Democratic and Republican elected officials from across the state joined to stop it.

Could it possibly have happened anyway? The answer is yes, temporarily, for a brief time.

How letters sent in Carson City came to be processed at Sacramento USPS facility

A reader told the Reno Gazette Journal they’d twice had letters internal to Carson City postmarked in Sacramento, so we asked USPS if the policy had changed.

“Mail processing for First Class mail that originates in Northern Nevada and is destined to Northern Nevada has not changed,” USPS spokesperson Sherry Patterson responded by email.

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“However,” she added, “without the specific mail piece and class of mail, we cannot determined if there is an issue.”

The reader then supplied a photo of the two envelopes postmarked Nov. 5 in Sacramento, and this was shared with USPS.

“Our processing machine in Reno was temporarily out of service while we awaited a replacement part,” Patterson said after viewing the postmarks to nail down the specific date the letters went through Sacramento.

“To ensure that mail was not delayed during this time, we implemented a contingency plan that involved routing certain mail to our Sacramento facility for cancellation and processing. This measure allows us to maintain service continuity and minimize disruptions for our customers. We understand that this may cause some confusion, and we are committed to ensuring that all mail is processed efficiently and accurately.”

Bottom line: Regarding first class mail that’s being sent to and from Northern Nevada addresses, it’s still USPS policy to process that in Reno at its Vassar Street facility, she said.

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The path these particular letters took, Patterson added, “is indeed an unusual occurrence.”

Mark Robison is the state politics reporter for the Reno Gazette Journal, with occasional forays into other topics. Email comments to mrobison@rgj.com or comment on Mark’s Greater Reno Facebook page.



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Holiday loneliness affects thousands in Nevada as many face Christmas away from loved ones

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Holiday loneliness affects thousands in Nevada as many face Christmas away from loved ones


LAS VEGAS (KTNV) — Loneliness has become a significant health issue for people everywhere, and the holiday season sometimes intensifies those feelings. For many, December looks like family gatherings, matching pajamas and bustling homes. But this time of year can also be very difficult for those who may be battling distance, work commitments or recent life changes.

Marc Valli, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam, has lived in Las Vegas since 1988. He moved to Nevada to join a ministry and be closer to his wife’s parents.

WATCH| Shellye Leggett talks to an army vet who’s recently moved into Escalante at the Lakes assisted living facility

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Holiday loneliness affects thousands in Nevada as many face Christmas away from loved ones

“I wanted to come and join ministry here. Also my wife’s parents lived here,” Valli said.

Valli’s wife Barbara, known to friends and family as Bobby, passed away in 2018 after 54 years of marriage.

“I’m still counting the years. We’ve been married 54 years,” he said.

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His children moved him into Escalante at the Lakes assisted living facility in June, making this his first holiday season in his new home.

“People are very nice, they treat you good,” Valli said.

Come Christmas Day, the facility’s common room will be filled with residents ready for holiday activities, but Valli hopes to get outside these walls to see his family that still lives nearby.

“I have grandkids. One goes to Cal Poly. He’s here right now, but he’s on vacation, and then I have two little granddaughters, one’s 11, one’s 7,” Valli said. “I don’t know if they’re gonna come for Christmas or I’m going there.”

Gus Farias, the executive director of Escalante at the Lakes Assisted Living, says many of his residents don’t have family nearby. Keeping their spirits high throughout the holidays is an important task.

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“We can tell when our residents are feeling down. There’s a lot of pressure during the holidays because some of our residents don’t have families that are nearby, but they have us,” Farias said.

The organisation A Mission for Michael released a study showing just how many people are expected to spend the holidays alone this year. Nevada ranked 43rd on the list of loneliest states, with more than 212,000 people expected to spend Christmas by themselves.

“It’s pretty surprising that there’s so many Nevadans that are gonna spend the holidays by themselves,” Farias said.

He says combating loneliness will take a community effort.

“When you’re at the grocery store or whatever, reach, look back and ask them, you know, wish them a merry Christmas or happy holidays and ask them how they passed their holidays in the past because we, we as a younger generation than our seniors, we can learn a lot from that,” Farias said.

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It’s an effort that Valli says makes the holidays a little brighter.

“Oh, it makes a big difference,” he said.





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Nysos, Nevada Beach Set for Clash in Laffit Pincay Jr.

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Nysos, Nevada Beach Set for Clash in Laffit Pincay Jr.


A trio of grade 1 races are set to take place on Santa Anita Park‘s opening day Dec. 28, but the undercard of graded stakes action will add to the fireworks with an expected clash of recent grade 1 winners in the $200,000 Laffit Pincay Jr. Stakes (G2).

Those grade 1 winners both emerge from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert with Nysos  carrying the silks of Baoma Corp. and Nevada Beach  racing for Michael Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman.

Nysos is aiming to cap his 4-year-old season with a fourth consecutive triumph. Although it has been challenging at times to keep the son of Nyquist   on the track, his talent has never been in doubt with six wins from seven starts. He proved himself at the top level Nov. 1 with a thrilling, stretch-duel victory over champion Citizen Bull   in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

A $550,000 purchase from the Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale has raced the 1 1/16-mile distance of the Pincay only once before, triumphing by 2 3/4 lengths in the San Diego Handicap (G2) at Del Mar. He’ll be on comfortable ground as his three starts at Santa Anita have been won by a combined 23 1/2 lengths.

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Santa Anita has also been a productive track for Nevada Beach, who won the Goodwood Stakes (G1) there in September. Going into this race, the son of Omaha Beach   bounced back from a seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) to outgame British Isles  by a half-length in the Native Diver Stakes (G3) at Del Mar Nov. 22.

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British Isles is among five rivals entered in the Pincay from outside the Baffert barn, a group that includes grade 3 winner Cornishman .

Entries: Laffit Pincay, Jr. S. (G2)

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, December 28, 2025, Race 6

  • Grade II
  • 1 1/16m
  • Dirt
  • $200,000
  • 3 yo’s & up
  • 1:30 PM (local)


Namaron, Maaz Meet Again in Mathis Mile

Seven 3-year-old runners are entered in the $200,000 Mathis Mile Stakes (G2T) traveling a mile on turf.

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Hronis Racing’s Namaron  is the lone contender with winning success at the graded level, courtesy of a group 3 triumph in Germany in April. The Amaron  gelding’s two American starts for trainer John Sadler have both resulted in third-place finishes against stakes company.

The most recent came in October’s Twilight Derby (G2T) at Santa Anita where he finished a half-length behind runner-up Maaz . That French-bred runner trained by Michael McCarthy for Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Madaket Stables, Sabby Racing, and Michael House returned in the Hollywood Derby (G1T), finishing seventh and beaten 4 3/4 lengths after his saddle slipped early in the race.

Entries: Mathis Mile S. (G2T)

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, December 28, 2025, Race 5

  • Grade IIT
  • 1m
  • Turf
  • $200,000
  • 3 yo
  • 1:00 PM (local)


Endlessly Aims to Right the Ship in San Gabriel

Considered one of the top turf talents of his crop as a 2-year-old, Endlessly  is aiming to right the ship and close out his 4-year-old season with a win in the $100,000 San Gabriel Stakes (G3T).

Photo: Chad B. Harmon
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Endlessly trains for the 2024 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs

The Amerman Racing homebred finished third in the American Stakes (G3T)—his seasonal debut this spring and first start in 8 1/2 months—but has not reached the board in three starts since. McCarthy gave the 4-year-old Oscar Performance   colt a little break following the Aug. 30 Del Mar Handicap (G2T) where he loomed a threat early but then faded to ninth. McCarthy also removes the blinkers he added two starts back.

McCarthy will also saddle grade 1-placed Mondego  for Cheyenne Stables.

Also looking to right the ship is Kretz Racing’s Cabo Spirit  for trainer George Papaprodromou. After defeating Endlessly in the American Stakes, he went on to hit the board in four straight graded attempts. However, the typical pacesetter had competition on the lead in his most recent start, the Nov. 29 Seabiscuit Handicap (G2T) and faded to finish eighth.

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Entries: San Gabriel S. (G3T)

Santa Anita Park, Sunday, December 28, 2025, Race 9

  • Grade IIIT
  • 1 1/8m
  • Turf
  • $100,000
  • 3 yo’s & up
  • 3:00 PM (local)






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