Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Key Facts

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Further Reading

Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)

Election Day is this Tuesday, Nov. 5, and the calendar has been cleared — no concerts, no school for Washoe County students, and the weather forecast calls for a rather routine day.

If you’re making plans to vote, you can visit washoecounty.gov/voters to register and find a polling location.

Need help getting there? RTC Washoe is providing free transit services on Election Day to get you to the voting booth.

Want to track the election results? Visit rgj.com on Tuesday and throughout the week for the latest updates.

Here’s a look at what else is in store for northwestern Nevada for the week of Nov. 4-10, 2024.

Northern Nevada events, Nov. 4-10

Black Lips, Nov. 6: One of the big names in the neo-garage rock movement since the turn of the century, this Georgia band uses a fair amount of shock, outrage and flat-out noisiness in their music and public persona. You can see what it’s all about at 8 p.m. in the Crown Room at Crystal Bay Club Casino, 14 State Highway 28, Crystal Bay. Tickets are $20-$25. For details, call 775-833-6333 or visit crystalbaycasino.com.

Bay Faction, Nov. 6: After making waves in the emo-punk community for a chunk of the ’10s, this Boston band split up in 2020. It didn’t take, though, as they are now back together and touring the country this year. They’ll play at 8 p.m. at Holland Project, 140 Vesta St., Reno. Tickets are $18-$20. Details: 775-742-1858 or hollandreno.org.

Ruvlo, Nov. 7: Another current big-name in the bass music scene, this DJ/producer will perform at 10 p.m. at Dead Ringer Analog Bar, 432 E. 4th St., Reno. Tickets are $10-$20. Details at facebook.com/drabreno.

KC and the Sunshine Band, Nov. 8: Keyboardist and singer Harry Casey is still leading this funk/disco group on the theater circuit, playing their No. 1 ’70s hits such as “Get Down Tonight,” “Please Don’t Go” and “I’m Your Boogie Man.” They’ll play at 8 p.m. at the Grand Theater, Grand Sierra Resort and Casino, 2500 E. 2nd St., Reno. Tickets range from $40-$70. For details, call 775-789-1115 or visit grandsierraresort.com.

Pablo Cruise, Nov. 9: With original members David Jenkins (vocals and guitar) and Cory Lerios (keyboards) still part of the group, this pop-rock group also still plays its ’70s and ’80s hits, including “Love Will Find A Way” and “Whatcha Gonna Do?” The band plays at 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. at Boomtown Casino Hotel, 2100 Garson Road, Verdi. Tickets are $40-$100. For details, call 775-345-8520 or visit boomtownreno.com.

Jo Koy, Nov. 9: With acting and animated-voice roles now a part of his career, this comedian still does theater tours sharing his distinctive style of observational comedy. Koy makes ’em laugh at 7:30 p.m. at Tahoe Blue Event Center, 75 US Highway 50, Stateline. Tickets are $50-$90. For details, call 775-589-2056 or visit tahoeblueeventcenter.com.

Northern Nevada weather, Nov. 4-10

Monday: Sunny, with highs in the mid-50s in the valleys and in the mid-40s to mid-50s at higher elevations. Partly cloudy overnight, with lows in the low 30s in the valleys and in the low 20s to low 30s at higher elevations.

Election Day Tuesday: Partly sunny, with highs in the upper 50s in the valleys and in the upper 40s to upper 50s at higher elevations. Partly cloudy overnight, with lows in the mid-20s in the valleys and in the mid-10s to mid-20s at higher elevations.

Wednesday: Sunny and cooler, with highs in the upper 40s in the valleys and in the mid-30s to mid-40s at higher elevations. Mostly clear overnight, with lows in the mid-20s in the valleys and in the mid-10s to mid-20s at higher elevations.

Thursday: Sunny and warmer, with highs in the low 50s in the valleys and in the low 40s to low 50s at higher elevations. Clear overnight, with lows in the upper 20s in the valleys and in the upper 10s to upper 20s at higher elevations.

Friday: Sunny and warmer, with highs near 60 in the valleys and in the upper 40s to upper 50s at higher elevations. Mostly clear overnight, with lows in the low 30s in the valleys and in the mid-20s to low 30s at higher elevations.

Saturday: Mixed clouds and sun, with highs near 60 in the valleys and in the low 50s at higher elevations. Mostly clear overnight, with lows in the mid-30s in the valleys and in the low 20s to low 30s at higher elevations.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a chance of rain; highs in the upper 50s in the valleys and in the mid-40s to mid-50s at higher elevations. Partly cloudy with a chance of precipitation overnight, with lows in the mid-30s in the valleys and in the mid-20s to mid-30s at higher elevations.

Northern Nevada roadwork, Nov. 4-10

I-80, west Reno: Lane reductions and overnight ramp closures will continue as part of a multiyear project to repave and improve the stretch of freeway between West McCarran and Keystone. Expect lane shifts and speed reductions.

Lakeside Drive, Holcomb Ranch Lane and West Huffaker Lane, Reno: Lane and road closures will take place through late fall as the Nevada Department of Transportation works to resurface 3 1/2 miles of State Route 671. Expect closures of up to 30 minutes.

Steamboat Parkway, south Reno: Crews will expand Steamboat Parkway from four lanes to six between Marketplace Drive and Veterans Parkway through November.

U.S. 395, North Valleys: Northbound traffic will continue to be reduced to two lanes on 395 through mid-2025 due to NDOT’s work to widen 395 between North McCarran Boulevard and Golden Valley Road. The on-ramp at Panther Valley, north of Reno, will be closed through late 2024. Watch for intermittent ramp closures overnight.

Mark Earnest contributed to this report.

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Originally Published: November 3, 2024 at 6:05 PM PST