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Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls

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Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls


Republican Tim Sheehy has built up a steady polling lead against Democratic Senator Jon Tester in what may become the most important Senate race of the 2024 election.

Montana, usually a ruby-red state, is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outrun other Democrats in the state in the past, and the party’s majority may hinge on his ability to win in November.

But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has sparked concerns about whether he can win in Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket-splitting has also ebbed in recent years.

While Sheehy has benefitted from strong polling numbers, Tester still holds a fundraising advantage.

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So far this campaign, Tester has raised about $43 million, while Sheehy has raised nearly $14 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). Meanwhile, Tester has spent more than $32.6 million, while Sheehy has spent over $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.

Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy speaks during a rally in Bozeman on August 9, 2024. Senator Jon Tester speaks in Billings, Montana on September 2, 2024. Polls show Sheehy with a lead over Tester…


Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images; William Campbell/Getty Images

At the end of June, Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally less expensive state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania or Texas.

The amount of money both parties pour into the race speaks to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

This means Democrats must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere to retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November. Montana is considered the tipping point for Senate control, with Ohio being another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state viewed as a potential GOP flip.

Tester continued to outraise Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Independent Record.

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Outside PACs have also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.

GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $13 million on advertisements supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Conversely, Democratic-leaning PACs have spent $3.5 million in support of Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.

The Last Best Place PAC, reported by HuffPost to be affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the top outside spender in the race, pouring in $19 million. Meanwhile, the GOP-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.

Tester spokesperson Monica Robinson told Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”

“He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana. Montanans know that the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is the best choice to defend Montana – not the multimillionaire out-of-stater Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.

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Newsweek also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester on Thursday following weeks of strong Republican polling in the state.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute survey conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

That pollster showed Tester with a lead as recently as last month, with an August 6 to August 14 poll among 540 registered voters showing Tester up five points (49 percent to 44 percent).

A Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 25 to August 29, showed Sheehy up six points in a head-to-head race (51 percent to 45 percent).

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Elsewhere, an American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV poll showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.

Sheehy, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny after a Native American news publication released audio recordings allegedly of Sheehy using stereotypes about Indigenous people. His spokesperson told the Associated Press, “What folks are insinuating about him, that’s just not who he is.”

Following the spate of polls showing Sheehy with a lead, Democrats announced plans for new investments in the Florida and Texas Senate races this week, suggesting they may see the Montana race as increasingly out of reach.

Even though Republican incumbent Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have been viewed as favorites, recent polls showed the states could be closer than Montana as democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.

The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

“He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”

Update 9/27/24, 5:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Monica Robinson.



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Montana State Bobcats return to FCS title game with commanding win over South Dakota Coyotes

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Montana State Bobcats return to FCS title game with commanding win over South Dakota Coyotes


BOZEMAN — The clock hit zeroes and “If You’re Gonna Play in Texas” by Alabama blared throughout Bobcat Stadium.

Defensive end Jake Vigen and defensive tackle Alec Eckert dumped a bucket of Powerade on Montana State head coach Brent Vigen (Jake’s father). Fans stormed the field in celebration of the full circle moment.

After coming up short in the FCS national championship in 2021, No. 1 MSU booked a return trip to Frisco, Texas, with a 31-17 win over No. 4 South Dakota Saturday at Bobcat Stadium.

The Bobcats will face No. 2 North Dakota State in the FCS title game on Jan. 6.

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MSU has ended its season against Missouri Valley Football Conference teams each of the last three seasons, with NDSU in the 2021 title game, South Dakota State in the 2022 semis and NDSU again in the 2023 second round.

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Now the Bobcats are “back where we belong,” MSU quarterback Tommy Mellott said. Defensive end Brody Grebe added that he’s glad the opponent will be NDSU because the Bobcats have “something to prove.”

“It’s absolutely a blessing to keep playing football into January,” Mellott said. “That’s what we’re all about here at Montana State.”

Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott talks to reporters after the Bobcats’ 31-17 win over South Dakota in the semifinals of the FCS playoffs Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.

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Victor Flores


Brent Vigen called it a complete “team win,” with MSU making plays in all three phases. Despite giving up two explosive plays in the first half — rushing touchdowns of 55 and 45 yards, respectively — and only scoring once in the second half, MSU “ultimately found a way” to stave off USD.

Montana State head football coach Brent Vigen talks to reporters after the Bobcats’ 31-17 win over South Dakota in the semifinals of the FCS playoffs Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.

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Punter Brendan Hall — who Mellott said has “a bazooka for a leg” — flipped the field with five punts, averaging 54 yards per punt.

MSU finished with 356 total yards (222 rushing, 134 passing) and USD had 371 yards (236 passing, 135 rushing). Mellott had 125 rushing yards and two TDs on 17 carries, and went 8 of 17 for 134 yards and a TD passing.

From left, South Dakota fullback Travis Theis, head football coach Bob Nielson and defensive back Dennis Shorter talk to reporters after the Coyotes’ 31-17 loss to Montana State in the semifinals of the FCS playoffs Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.

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Vigen said if Mellott — a Walter Payton Award finalist — isn’t the most impactful player in FCS, it will be decided on the field in the title game against NDSU QB Cam Miller, a fellow Walter Payton top-three finalist.

Mellott got to work quickly with a pass to wide receiver Taco Dowler for a 20-yard gain. Dowler also capped off the opening drive with a 34-yard touchdown.

Dowler led MSU with four catches for 94 yards.

“He’s a stud,” Mellott said. “We got to find ways every single week to get him the ball, and I think we’ve done a really good job of that.”

Coyotes running back/fullback Travis Theis broke several tackles en route to the end zone on a 55-yard TD run. Safeties Dru Polidore and Rylan Ortt initially missed, followed by linebacker Neil Daily missing and colliding with defensive back Andrew Powdrell.

Theis finished with 110 rushing yards on 14 carries, along with seven catches for 80 yards.

“We had a heck of a time with Theis,” Vigen said, adding, “That was something we anticipated, that he was going to be one of the better players that we’ve seen all year.”

MSU regained the lead with a 5-yard TD run by Mellott.

The Coyotes opened the second quarter with another big run — this time a 45-yard TD scamper by RB Charles Pierre Jr. It’s the first time the Bobcats have surrendered multiple runs of 45-plus yards in a single game this season.

That run also put USD over 100 rushing yards. But the Coyotes were held to 45 rushing yards the rest of the game. Pierre finished with 57 yards on four carries.

“We knew we had to get those (explosive plays) out because besides that, they weren’t having a ton of success,” Grebe said, adding, “And that’s going to happen in those heavy personnels.

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“But getting those big plays stopped, those explosive plays, that’s what helped us in the second half ultimately close out that game.”

Montana State defensive end Brody Grebe talks to reporters after the Bobcats’ 31-17 win over South Dakota in the semifinals of the FCS playoffs Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.

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MSU rattled off a 12-play, 74-yard scoring drive to regain the lead. After a defensive holding call on USD, RB Scottre Humphrey scored a 1-yard TD.

MSU kicker Myles Sansted added a 28-yard field goal with 8 seconds left in the first half to make it 24-14 MSU at the break.

The Bobcats led in total yardage (269-183) and in time of possession (20:28-9:32) at halftime. Mellott also surpassed 1,000 career playoff rushing yards (1,006) and the Bobcats broke their single-season rushing record (4,428) in the first half.

While he would’ve liked a TD to end the first half — as well as better offensive efficiency in the second half — Vigen said controlling time of possession was critical, especially in the first half. MSU ultimately won 32:04-27:56.

“We were just trying to bring it home,” Vigen said. “And ultimately we were able to do that.”

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Mellott got MSU back to midfield on a 26-yard scramble. He later bobbled the snap on a third-and-1, burst up the middle, hurdled USD’s Josiah Ganues and scored a 41-yard TD to put MSU up 31-14.

Vigen said it might be the craziest play he’s seen from Mellott, a product of a “fortuitous bounce” and taking advantage of chaos.

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“That play, the unscripted, the competitive nature, he certainly could have gone down on that play,” Vigen added. “Somehow he kept his balance and I’m sure they were wondering what the heck just happened.”

The Coyotes later kicked a 46-yard FG to make it 31-17.

USD had two potential scoring drives in the fourth quarter snuffed out by the MSU defense. The Coyotes lost 11 yards on a botched snap. On a fourth-and-13, tight end JJ Galbreath was knocked out of bounds short of the line to gain by MSU DB Tayden Gray.

On the second drive, Grebe and DE Kenneth Eiden IV bull-rushed Bouman for a sack on a third-and-5. Cornerback Simeon Woodard broke up a pass intended for USD’s Carter Bell in the end zone on fourth-and-10.

Vigen said the Bobcats defended the pass well all game, largely holding the Coyotes to check downs. Bouman went 20 of 29 for 236 yards, with three completions of 20-plus yards.

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“We did not give them the home run, and they were going after the home run over and over again,” Vigen said, adding, “We got ourselves in some one-on-ones and we were able to make those plays and really challenge them.”






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Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott (4) flips the ball out of his hands after scoring against South Dakota during an FCS semifinal game Saturday at Bobcat Stadium.




Grebe also pointed to the win over UC Davis, when the Aggies nearly overcame a 30-8 deficit in the fourth quarter. On Saturday, the Bobcats were once again in danger of losing momentum.

“Today, we were able to get those stops, and that was huge for our team to keep a little comfort there, that we could finish out the game with the two-score lead,” Grebe added.

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The last gasp for USD came on an attempted hook-and-ladder from Galbreath to Quaron Adams. But Adams couldn’t handle the lateral and Grebe recovered the fumble. Mellott kneeled it out to seal the win.

Montana State’s Brody Grebe recovers a South Dakota fumble with 1:41 left to secure the Bobcats’ 31-17 victory, which earned them a trip back to the FCS championship.

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It was the same fashion MSU punched its ticket to Frisco in 2021, with then-DE Daniel Hardy recovering the ball to beat SDSU 31-17.

“There’s nothing like that,” Grebe added. “And I’m so happy that I was able to go out this way in Bobcat Stadium.”

After the game felt “pretty surreal” for Grebe, who still remembers playing throughout the 2021 playoff run as a freshman alongside seniors he admired. Mellott said he was overwhelmed during that run and trying to take every game one at a time.

Now, the Bobcats have the built-in experience for another run at a national title. Vigen said his team will “not leave a stone unturned” as they look toward a rematch against the Bison.

“We’re going to have to prepare like crazy over the next couple weeks to put ourselves in position,” Vigen added. “But I think that we’re gonna go down there with a team that’s going to be right in the fight.”

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The Montana State football team runs out before its game against South Dakota in the semifinals of the FCS playoffs Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman.

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Live updates: No. 1 Montana State Bobcats host No. 4 South Dakota in FCS semifinals

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Live updates: No. 1 Montana State Bobcats host No. 4 South Dakota in FCS semifinals


BOZEMAN — Top-seeded Montana State (14-0) will take on fourth-seeded University of South Dakota (11-2) at 1:30 p.m. Saturday at Bobcat Stadium in the semifinals of the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs.

This is USD’s first trip to the semis, while MSU has reached the final four for the fourth time in five seasons.

The Bobcats are 9 1/2-point favorites to win Saturday’s game. Whoever prevails will face North Dakota State in the national championship game. NDSU beat rival South Dakota State 28-21 in the semis Saturday in Fargo, North Dakota.

MSU beat Idaho 52-19 at home last week in the quarterfinals, while the Coyotes prevailed 35-21 at home over a different Big Sky Conference team, UC Davis.

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The Cats are 2-0 against USD. Two teams first met in 2008, the Coyotes’ first season after moving up from Division II to D-I. MSU won that game 37-18 and beat USD 31-24 back in Bozeman a year later. 

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The Bobcats have set program records for single-season victories and longest winning streak. Their last trip to the FCS title game happened in 2021, when they beat South Dakota State 31-17 at Bobcat Stadium in the semis and lost to North Dakota State 38-10 a few weeks later in Frisco, Texas.

Pregame

MSU All-Americans Scottre Humphrey (running back) and Rohan Jones (fullback/tight end) are both active after missing last week’s game due to injury.

Cats head coach Brent Vigen is one win away from tying Sonny Holland for second-most wins in program history (47). A win Saturday would also give Vigen 30 home wins as MSU head coach, tying him with Cliff Hysell for second-most as a Bobcat. Rob Ash owns both records, with 70 overall wins and 43 at home.

MSU is 73 rushing yards away from matching its record for rushing yards in a season (4,366, set in 2022) and is one touchdown away from tying its single-season rushing TD record (49, also set in 2022).

The flag bearers for the Cats during the pregame runout were defensive back Tayden Gray (American) and center Justus Perkins (Montanan), a Bozeman native.

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First quarter

MSU got the ball first and scored with 11 minutes, 56 seconds on the clock. Tommy Mellott hit Taco Dowler for a 34-yard TD pass to put the Cats up 7-0.

Mellott also found Dowler for a 20-yard gain on the first play from scrimmage.

USD tied it up on a 55-yard TD run from Travis Theis at the 8:52 mark.

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The Cats have now allowed a play of at least 55 yards for the fourth time in five games. It’s the 83rd play of at least 20 yards for USD this season, according to the Bozeman Daily Chronicle.

USD forced what appeared to be a three-and-out on the next drive, but a Coyote jumped offsides before the punt attempt, turning a fourth-and-3 into a first down. MSU punted four plays later.

USD went three-and-out on its next drive, after a false start on third-and4 and a pass breakup from MSU cornerback Jon Johnson on the resulting third-and-9.

Mellott put MSU back up by seven points with a 5-yard TD rush with 1:04 on the clock. A 28-yard pass to Dowler set up the score.

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SCORE: Montana State 14, South Dakota 7

Second quarter

USD tied it up with 14:51 left in the half on a 45-yard TD run from Charles Pierre Jr.

Going into the game, MSU had allowed two runs of 45 or more yards all season.

Scottre Humphrey put the Cats ahead 21-14 with a 1-yard TD run at the 8:24 mark.

MSU broke the program record for single-season rushing yards on the 12-play, 74-yard drive. Humphrey’s TD put MSU at 4,384 ground yards this season. The previous mark was 4,366 in 2022.

Humphrey now has a team-leading 15 rushing TDs this season, the fifth-most in MSU history.

A Kenneth Eiden IV sack led to a USD punt on the following drive.

Myles Sansted made a 28-yard field goal with eight seconds left to put MSU ahead 24-14.

SCORE: Montana State 24, South Dakota 14

This story will be updated.

Victor Flores is the Montana State Bobcats beat writer for 406 MT Sports. Email him at victor.flores@406mtsports.com and follow him on Twitter/X at @VictorFlores406

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Montana parks board approves new state park on historic ranchland

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Montana parks board approves new state park on historic ranchland


Montana will soon have a new state park — the state’s first new park in three years.

On Friday afternoon, the Montana State Parks and Recreation Board approved the acquisition of a 109-acre parcel of land near the confluence of the Missouri and Judith rivers, which will be donated to the state.

The future Judith Landing State Park will not only provide crucial public access to the Missouri River but is also steeped in history.

These buildings were once part of the historic P-N Ranch, one of the state’s first and largest private cattle ranches. There are also remnants of a stone warehouse once used to store goods shipped along the Missouri River during the steamboat era. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

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“It began millennia ago with the Indigenous people who inhabited that land for decades and decades, and generations and generations,” said Megan Buecking of the Montana State Parks Foundation. “Important treaties were held there, and following that, there was also a dinosaur discovery, the first military camp in Montana, and it was also an important stop on Lewis and Clark’s journey west.”

Coming Sunday: MTN News takes a tour of the land that is now Montana’s 56th state park.





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