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Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls

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Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls


Republican Tim Sheehy has built up a steady polling lead against Democratic Senator Jon Tester in what may become the most important Senate race of the 2024 election.

Montana, usually a ruby-red state, is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outrun other Democrats in the state in the past, and the party’s majority may hinge on his ability to win in November.

But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has sparked concerns about whether he can win in Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket-splitting has also ebbed in recent years.

While Sheehy has benefitted from strong polling numbers, Tester still holds a fundraising advantage.

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So far this campaign, Tester has raised about $43 million, while Sheehy has raised nearly $14 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). Meanwhile, Tester has spent more than $32.6 million, while Sheehy has spent over $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.

Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy speaks during a rally in Bozeman on August 9, 2024. Senator Jon Tester speaks in Billings, Montana on September 2, 2024. Polls show Sheehy with a lead over Tester…


Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images; William Campbell/Getty Images

At the end of June, Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally less expensive state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania or Texas.

The amount of money both parties pour into the race speaks to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

This means Democrats must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere to retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November. Montana is considered the tipping point for Senate control, with Ohio being another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state viewed as a potential GOP flip.

Tester continued to outraise Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Independent Record.

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Outside PACs have also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.

GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $13 million on advertisements supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Conversely, Democratic-leaning PACs have spent $3.5 million in support of Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.

The Last Best Place PAC, reported by HuffPost to be affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the top outside spender in the race, pouring in $19 million. Meanwhile, the GOP-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.

Tester spokesperson Monica Robinson told Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”

“He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana. Montanans know that the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is the best choice to defend Montana – not the multimillionaire out-of-stater Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.

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Newsweek also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester on Thursday following weeks of strong Republican polling in the state.

An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute survey conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).

That pollster showed Tester with a lead as recently as last month, with an August 6 to August 14 poll among 540 registered voters showing Tester up five points (49 percent to 44 percent).

A Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 25 to August 29, showed Sheehy up six points in a head-to-head race (51 percent to 45 percent).

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Elsewhere, an American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV poll showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.

Sheehy, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny after a Native American news publication released audio recordings allegedly of Sheehy using stereotypes about Indigenous people. His spokesperson told the Associated Press, “What folks are insinuating about him, that’s just not who he is.”

Following the spate of polls showing Sheehy with a lead, Democrats announced plans for new investments in the Florida and Texas Senate races this week, suggesting they may see the Montana race as increasingly out of reach.

Even though Republican incumbent Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have been viewed as favorites, recent polls showed the states could be closer than Montana as democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.

The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”

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Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”

“He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”

Update 9/27/24, 5:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Monica Robinson.



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Montana

SLIDESHOW: Severe storms moved through western Montana on Thursday

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SLIDESHOW: Severe storms moved through western Montana on Thursday


Severe storms moved through parts of Montana on Thursday, prompting a total of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Reports included strong wind gusts and hail in several communities, including Augusta, Choteau, Sunburst, Bigfork, Kalispell and Evergreen.

The strongest reported wind gust was 60 mph near Augusta, while hail up to 1 inch was reported near Evergreen and Kalispell.

STORM REPORTS:

12 SE Grant — 56 mph thunderstorm wind gust
7 NNE Augusta — 60 mph thunderstorm wind gust
5 ENE Choteau — 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust
Sunburst — 54 mph thunderstorm wind gust
Ennis — 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust
3 SSW Ennis — 52 mph thunderstorm wind gust
2 E Helena — 54 mph thunderstorm wind gust
19 E Swan Lake — 56 mph thunderstorm wind gust
2 NNW Yaak — thunderstorm wind damage – Multiple downed trees reported along Highway 2 between MM 3 and 8
3 WSW Blacktail — 53 mph thunderstorm wind gust
1 NNW Troy — 49 mph thunderstorm wind gust
5 ENE Choteau — 56 mph thunderstorm wind gust

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Turah — 0.88″ hail
1 NNW Bigfork — 0.75″ hail
3 SW La Salle — 0.50″ hail
2 N Evergreen — 1.00″ hail
1 W Kalispell — 1.00″ hail
3 WNW Kalispell — 0.75″ hail

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Las Vegas man sentenced after Helena coin shop burglary in Montana

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Las Vegas man sentenced after Helena coin shop burglary in Montana


A man from Las Vegas has been sentenced after stealing coins and precious metals from a Helena shop in Montana.

This comes after Bishop Lott, 47, pleaded guilty in January to one count of interstate transportation of stolen property.

A judge sentenced Lott on Thursday to 27 months in prison, followed by three years of supervised release. He was also ordered to pay $276,153.08 in restitution to the Helena business as well as five other theft victims.

MORE | Southern California man pleads guilty to importing, trafficking 70 pounds of ketamine

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The government alleged in court documents that Lott, along with Ricky Rynell Rose, broke into Wayne Miller Coins in Helena and stole nearly $59,000 in coins and precious metals from a Helena business.

Rose pleaded guilty last year and was sentenced to 39 months in prison.

The Helena Police Department received a call on March 3, 2024, reporting that Wayne Miller Coins had been burglarized earlier that day.

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As part of their investigation, Helena police officers reviewed surveillance footage from multiple businesses. They analyzed email account data, which led them to Lott and Rose, who had taken the stolen material to Nevada.



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A battle over dark money is brewing in Hawaii and Montana

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A battle over dark money is brewing in Hawaii and Montana


Political spending that is funneled into elections from a variety of nonprofits is known as dark money — and unlike campaign spending or the money deployed by PACs and super PACs, these sources are not required to disclose their donors. Following the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision, which created the country’s current election spending landscape, this has ramped up dramatically, with the 2024 election seeing a record $1.9 billion in dark money spending, nearly double the $1 billion spent in 2020. Now, some campaign finance reformers think they’ve found a state-level reform that can rein in this spending.

Now, campaign finance reformers think they’ve found a solution, and it’s already in place in Hawaii.

A newly enacted corporate law, SB 2471, changes the powers that corporations, or other artificial persons like nonprofits, are granted by the state of Hawaii. In the United States, states grant artificial persons powers as part of an agreement that allows those artificial persons to operate in the state. SB 2471 works by changing the powers that Hawaii grants these entities to disallow them from spending on politics at all.

Tom Moore, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and former chief of staff to  Federal Election Commission commissioner Ellen Weintraub, told Salon that the law operates upstream of Citizens United by dealing with the powers granted to corporations and other artificial persons, rather than trying to regulate what they can and cannot do with those powers.

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“Citizens United said, ‘Hey, if you’re a corporation that is empowered to spend in politics, your right to spend independently in politics can’t be infringed,’” Moore said. “Fine. What this [Hawaiian law] does is say, ‘You know, we’re not going to create that kind of corporation anymore. We’re going to create the kind of corporation that doesn’t have any political spending powers.’ Citizens United and all the other campaign finance cases that the courts have ever decided do not speak to that.”

In his analysis, Moore said this strategy also has a better chance of standing up to scrutiny from the Supreme Court because courts have long upheld a state’s ability to assign powers to corporations operating within their borders, going back hundreds of years.

“They’re gimmicks, and the Supreme Court is not usually impressed by gimmicks.”

“The Supreme Court has said for 200 years that the states can do whatever they want in terms of assigning powers to corporations. They made a fatal assumption in Citizens United that 100 years ago, when states gave away all the powers and said, ‘You can do anything that a human could do,’ they assumed that states would never change their mind on that,” Moore said. “But they never said the states couldn’t change their mind on that, and now they are.”

For example, a recent court ruling in Delaware allowed a change to a town charter that would allow corporations to vote there under some circumstances.

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Moore believes that this Hawaiian law, and others like it in the works in other states, have a good chance of surviving at the Supreme Court. However, some critics disagree, saying this legal maneuver is likely to be struck down.

Brad Smith, the chairman and founder of the Institute for Free Speech, a nonprofit that advocates against limits on political speech, including political spending, called the move an “end run” around Citizens United.

“They’re gimmicks, and the Supreme Court is not usually impressed by gimmicks. If you want to do it, you probably have to change the makeup of the Supreme Court or be willing to pack the court and have the political muscle to do it,” Smith said.

In his opinion, the court is likely to see Hawaii’s law as a violation of the First Amendment and is unlikely to look favorably on the argument that these laws deal with powers rather than with rights and that this has to do with how corporations have changed in the past 200 years.


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Smith explained that in the past, states used to create bespoke statutes for corporations to do something like operate a ferry or a toll bridge. These days, however, the laws governing corporations are more uniform.

“That’s just not how corporations operate in the modern world,” Smith said.

Smith added that he suspects the court will see this law as conditioning the creation of a corporation, or similar artificial person, on forfeiting the right of the people forming a corporation to political speech in the form of spending.

“You could not have the state say we’re going to allow you to register your home, but only if you agree that you won’t spend any money from your home equity line of credit on any kind of political activity,” Smith said. “You can’t deny people the benefits of the law based on a determination that they give up some type of constitutional rights.”

Notably, under Hawaii’s law, the people who form corporations are still allowed to engage in political spending; it’s just that the artificial person in question is disallowed. Still, Smith said, he believes the court will still see the law as unconstitutional.

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What’s clear is that this new law, or one like it, will likely be headed to the Supreme Court and that’s because there are already other states where people are mobilizing to create similar laws.

Jeff Mangan, the founder and president of the Transparent Election Initiative, is already spearheading an effort to get a similar statute on the ballot in Montana in 2026, telling Salon that the group is only about 1,000 signatures away from meeting the petition requirements, with four weeks left.

“It’s an all-volunteer effort in Montana, we don’t have any paid signature gatherers, and it’s something that hasn’t been seen in a couple of decades here,” Mangan said.

While election finance reform is typically seen as a progressive issue, Mangan said that the initiative has been well-received by Montanans of all political leanings and that he’s optimistic that the measure will pass, though he’s expecting a significant political battle once the ballot measure is approved.

“We start with a very simple question: Do you believe there’s too much money in politics?” Mangan said. “Citizens will say ‘Yes,’ and they may not agree exactly what the solution is, but we can all agree that there’s too much money in politics.”

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Mangan acknowledged that the law, if passed in Montana, would be limited in that it only addresses dark money, which is a relatively small portion of political spending. While 2024 saw nearly $2 billion in dark money spent, it saw some $15 billion in outside political spending, according to the election spending watchdog OpenSecrets. Still, Mangan said, he’s already had organizers in all 50 states reach out expressing interest in the project and in starting similar efforts in their home states.

The Montana measure has also already survived a legal challenge at the Montana Supreme Court, which makes organizers optimistic that the law will survive a federal challenge. The court ruled that the law was not an infringement of rights because the law “speaks only to powers, not rights, and it does not expressly revoke any constitutional rights.”

Still, Mangan expects that his group and the supporters of the measure will have to fight tooth and nail to get the bill passed via referendum if and when it appears on the ballot in November.

“It’ll certainly be a David versus Goliath battle. They’ve already started. The Chamber of Commerce and industry groups attempted to stop the initiative right at the beginning of the signature-gathering phase. They sued the state to stop us from gathering signatures. They were unsuccessful,” Mangan said. “We expect litigation at every step of the way through this, not to mention whatever political campaign they choose to throw at us, and I would imagine it’ll be expensive and immense. It almost makes our point. Exactly the reason we need the Montana plan is because of exactly what we’re seeing being thrown against us.”






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