Montana
Tester outraising Republican opponent 2-1 in Montana, still behind in polls
Republican Tim Sheehy has built up a steady polling lead against Democratic Senator Jon Tester in what may become the most important Senate race of the 2024 election.
Montana, usually a ruby-red state, is home to one of the most competitive Senate elections of the cycle. Tester, a centrist Democrat who has served as senator since 2006, has outrun other Democrats in the state in the past, and the party’s majority may hinge on his ability to win in November.
But a flurry of recent polls showing Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL officer and businessman, in the lead has sparked concerns about whether he can win in Montana this year. Turnout is expected to be high in a state former President Donald Trump will almost certainly win. Montana’s history of ticket-splitting has also ebbed in recent years.
While Sheehy has benefitted from strong polling numbers, Tester still holds a fundraising advantage.
So far this campaign, Tester has raised about $43 million, while Sheehy has raised nearly $14 million, according to data from the Federal Elections Commission (FEC). Meanwhile, Tester has spent more than $32.6 million, while Sheehy has spent over $10.6 million, the nonprofit OpenSecrets reported.
Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images; William Campbell/Getty Images
At the end of June, Tester had about $10.9 million in the bank, compared to $1.7 million for Sheehy, according to the FEC. Fundraising is crucial for any Senate candidate, but Montana is a smaller, generally less expensive state with fewer media markets than other key Senate races in states like Pennsylvania or Texas.
The amount of money both parties pour into the race speaks to its importance this year. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 Senate majority and are expected to lose at least the seat vacated by West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
This means Democrats must win every other seat they currently hold or flip one elsewhere to retain their majority in what has been viewed as a particularly challenging map in November. Montana is considered the tipping point for Senate control, with Ohio being another Democratic-held seat in a Republican-leaning state viewed as a potential GOP flip.
Tester continued to outraise Sheehy in the second quarter, bringing in $10.5 million to Sheehy’s $5.3 million, according to the Helena-based Independent Record.
Outside PACs have also spent tens of millions of dollars on the race, according to OpenSecrets.
GOP-supporting PACs have spent more than $13 million on advertisements supporting Sheehy and more than $30 million opposing Tester. Conversely, Democratic-leaning PACs have spent $3.5 million in support of Tester and nearly $31 million opposing Sheehy, according to the nonprofit.
The Last Best Place PAC, reported by HuffPost to be affiliated with Democratic leadership, has been the top outside spender in the race, pouring in $19 million. Meanwhile, the GOP-aligned More Jobs, Less Government PAC spent $18.8 million on the election, according to OpenSecrets.
Tester spokesperson Monica Robinson told Newsweek on Friday that the senator is “no stranger to tough races.”
“He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana. Montanans know that the dirt farmer from Big Sandy is the best choice to defend Montana – not the multimillionaire out-of-stater Tim Sheehy, who doesn’t understand our way of life and is changing Montana for the worse,” Robinson said.
Newsweek also reached out to the Sheehy campaign for comment via email.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate gave Sheehy a 3.7-point advantage over Tester on Thursday following weeks of strong Republican polling in the state.
An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute survey conducted among 491 likely voters from September 12 to September 19 showed Sheehy up seven points (50 percent to 43 percent).
That pollster showed Tester with a lead as recently as last month, with an August 6 to August 14 poll among 540 registered voters showing Tester up five points (49 percent to 44 percent).
A Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research/AARP poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from August 25 to August 29, showed Sheehy up six points in a head-to-head race (51 percent to 45 percent).
Elsewhere, an American Pulse Research & Polling/KULR-TV poll showed Sheehy with a 6-point lead over Tester (51 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 538 registered voters from August 10 to August 12.
Sheehy, endorsed by Trump, has faced scrutiny after a Native American news publication released audio recordings allegedly of Sheehy using stereotypes about Indigenous people. His spokesperson told the Associated Press, “What folks are insinuating about him, that’s just not who he is.”
Following the spate of polls showing Sheehy with a lead, Democrats announced plans for new investments in the Florida and Texas Senate races this week, suggesting they may see the Montana race as increasingly out of reach.
Even though Republican incumbent Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have been viewed as favorites, recent polls showed the states could be closer than Montana as democratic challengers Representative Colin Allred and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell gain ground.
The Cook Political Report rates Montana’s Senate race as “Lean Republican,” meaning it is “considered competitive,” but the GOP “has an advantage.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also reclassified the race from “toss-up” to “Lean Republican” on September 6, with forecaster Kyle Kondik writing that “history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side.”
“He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election,” Kondik wrote. “Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”
Update 9/27/24, 5:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Monica Robinson.
Carrie Gilbertson has been executive director of Cancer Support Community Montana for just under two months, stepping into the role in April with more than 15 years of nonprofit experience and a lifetime of Montana roots.
The organization provides psychosocial and mental health support to anyone affected by cancer — not just those with a diagnosis, but also family members and others walking alongside them.
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“This mission of providing psycho-social supports and mental health supports for anyone impacted by cancer, not just that person who has the diagnosis, but also family members, anyone who is walking alongside someone as they experience that often scary diagnosis, that’s just something that’s important to me,” Gilbertson said.
Gilbertson’s role extends beyond the Bozeman office. Cancer Support Community Montana’s Missoula location is already up and running, and a Helena location is expected to be operating soon. Each presents its own set of challenges.
“Each hospital is different. They might have different resources. Their social workers might be connecting to things in a different way. So understanding what those hospitals need, what different participants need in each community, is going to be different just because the communities are different, resources are different,” Gilbertson said.
The Bozeman office has been operating for more than 20 years, providing a foundation that supports the organization’s broader statewide efforts.
“I think this is a crew that looks at what does this community need what do our participants need what are some of the changing landscapes in cancer care what things are the gaps that we see that we can maybe just jump right in and you know let’s see if we can provide that for people so that’s something I really love about this crew that I work with and just this mission that there is some flexibility in being able to adjust and adapt as we learn more,” Gilbertson said.
Those adaptations show up in unexpected ways. The organization converts its parking lot into a pickleball court every Friday morning.
“I didn’t know there was a pickleball court. I pulled in actually with my daughter pulled in and she was is that pickleball court and I was like oh, it kind of looks like it is so yeah that’s fun, every Friday morning we clear out the parking lot and put up the net and I haven’t played yet I’ve been watching just to kind of see how that game works but they take it pretty seriously,” Gilbertson said.
This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.
The Montana Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big.
Here’s a look at June 17, 2026, results for each game:
Winning Powerball numbers from June 17 drawing
03-26-49-53-61, Powerball: 12, Power Play: 2
Check Powerball payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Lotto America numbers from June 17 drawing
11-16-18-33-51, Star Ball: 09, ASB: 05
Check Lotto America payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Big Sky Bonus numbers from June 17 drawing
01-16-17-27, Bonus: 01
Check Big Sky Bonus payouts and previous drawings here.
Winning Montana Cash numbers from June 17 drawing
13-22-35-36-39
Check Montana Cash payouts and previous drawings here.
Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results
When are the Montana Lottery drawings held?
- Powerball: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Mega Millions: 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday and Friday.
- Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily.
- Lotto America: 9 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
- Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily.
- Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
- Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and Saturday.
- Millionaire for Life: 9:15 p.m. MT daily.
Missed a draw? Peek at the past week’s winning numbers.
This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Great Falls Tribune editor. You can send feedback using this form.
Death in detention: deported migrant woman describes conditions inside ICE facility
Deported migrant woman recounts harsh ICE detention conditions after her husband died from medical complications inside Camp East Montana.
The Department of Homeland Security told the El Paso Times that two suspected overdoses at Camp East Montana over Memorial weekend were related to an overdose of psychiatric medication and a “self-harm” incident.
In both incidents on May 23 and May 24, the detainees were taken to the Rio Vista Behavioral Health center, a DHS spokesperson said.
The 35-year-old detainee who overdosed on psychiatric medication on May 23 was returned to the immigration detention center the same day and is in stable condition. The 34-year-old who overdosed on May 24 is currently being monitored by ICE medical staff after being returned.
“When there are signs of a detainee self-harming, staff abides by strict prevention and intervention protocol to ensure the detainee’s health and wellbeing is protected,” a DHS spokesperson said in a statement. “ICE requires annual suicide prevention training and provides mental health service to detainees.”
The DHS spokesperson said that ICE provides “comprehensive medical care from the moment an alien enters ICE custody. This includes medical, dental, and mental health services as available, and access to medical appointments and 24-hour emergency care.”
The El Paso ICE detention center is the largest in the country, with a capacity to hold 5,000 people. Allegations of human rights abuses have plagued the site since it opened in August 2025.
At least three suspected overdoses have occurred at Camp East Montana, according to 911 emergency calls analyzed by the El Paso Times. The first suspected overdose was reported on Feb. 28, involving a 60-year-old male detainee.
Rising deaths, suicides in ICE detention
At least 50 migrants have died in ICE custody since President Donald Trump returned to office, with 18 deaths occurring in 2026. At least 10 of these deaths were suicides, an investigation by the Associated Press found, including Victor Manuel Diaz, a 36-year-old Nicaraguan migrant who died at Camp East Montana on Jan. 17.
U.S. representatives, including Veronica Escobar, D-El Paso, Angie Craig, DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party)-Prior Lake, and other political leaders, have raised concerns about the conditions at the detention center following more than a dozen oversight visits. Congressional representatives have repeatedly raised concerns over detainees’ access to medical and mental health services.
The American Civil Liberties Union of Texas, the ACLU, Texas Civil Rights Project, Human Rights Watch and the law firm Farella Braun + Martel LLP sued ICE on behalf of four detainees held at Camp East Montana over “horrific” human rights abuses in May 2026.
Jeff Abbott covers the border for the El Paso Times and can be reached at:jdabbott@usatodayco.com; @palabrasdeabajo on Twitter or @palabrasdeabajo.bsky.social on Bluesky.
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