The No. 3-ranked Montana State Bobcats (9-1, 7-0 Huge Sky) are 1 ½-point favorites to beat the No. 13 Montana Grizzlies (7-3, 4-3) within the 121st Brawl of the Wild, which kicks off at midday Saturday at Bobcat Stadium.

The Cats boast one of many Soccer Championship Subdivision’s greatest dashing offenses, whereas the Griz have top-of-the-line dashing defenses. An up-and-down UM offense will face an inconsistent MSU protection, and each groups have kick/punt returners who can swing a recreation’s momentum.

Saturday’s Cat-Griz recreation shall be televised on MTN (CBS stations in Montana), streamed on ESPN+ and broadcast on the Bobcat Radio Community, the Grizzly Community and the Varsity Community.

Listed below are three keys for every group:

The Cats definitely needs to go successfully, however their offensive energy is on the bottom. They prime the FCS with 6.6 yards per carry and are second with 316.6 dashing yards per recreation.

MSU rushed for 168 yards on 5.3 yards per carry in opposition to Oregon State, which has surrendered 849 yards (94.3 per recreation) on 3.5 ypc to its 9 Soccer Bowl Subdivision opponents. The Cats compiled 325 yards on 7.2 ypc in opposition to now No. 24 UC Davis and 347 on 6.5 ypc in opposition to now-No. 7 Weber State. If not for MSU, Davis would have a top-40 FCS dashing protection and Weber could be within the prime 15.

The Griz prime the Huge Sky with 97.3 dashing yards in opposition to on 2.6 ypc, however they allowed Weber to hurry for 192 yards on 3.8 ypc, and now-No. 2 Sacramento State completed with 180 yards and 5.3 ypc in opposition to UM. 

MSU backup quarterback Sean Chambers, who’s rushed for 622 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, is about to return from a three-game damage absence. Operating again Lane Sumner, who has 450 yards on 6.2 ypc in 5 video games, would possibly play as effectively. So may All-American Isaiah Ifanse, who hasn’t seen the sphere for the reason that FCS title recreation in January.

MSU’s protection has allowed at the very least one play of 34-plus yards to each FCS group it’s confronted to date this season (oddly, Oregon State’s longest play in opposition to MSU was 26 yards regardless of placing up 538 whole yards in its 68-28 win). MSU’s final two opponents, Northern Arizona and Cal Poly, ran profitable trick performs and caught MSU’s protection off-guard in different methods.

UM’s offense has produced simply 14 performs of at the very least 34 yards this season. If the Cats can enhance their self-discipline and clear up different points that result in chunk yardage, they’ve an excellent probability to sluggish UM down, particularly in the event that they maintain forcing turnovers (they prime the Huge Sky and are close to the highest within the FCS with 23 turnovers gained).

Lack of self-discipline, in fact, additionally contributes to penalties. The Griz have been flagged simply 40 instances (greatest within the Huge Sky), whereas the Cats have made 49 infractions. This seemingly even matchup could possibly be decided by the referees’ whistles, or lack thereof.

In final yr’s Brawl, MSU held UM’s offense out of the top zone after Cam Humphrey’s 74-yard TD go to Junior Bergen on the second play from scrimmage. Kevin Macias made all 5 of his subject objectives, and Justin Ford returned a fumble for a TD after a failed faux subject aim try by the Cats. It’s unlikely the end result would’ve modified if Macias missed at the very least one subject aim or if Ford’s return didn’t occur, however who is aware of how that recreation would’ve performed out if MSU stayed inside hanging distance for longer?

Macias is gone, and the Griz are simply 7 of 12 on subject objectives and 44 of 49 on point-after makes an attempt this season. The Cats are 14 of 19 and 54 of 56, respectively. UM nonetheless has Malik Flowers, top-of-the-line returners in Huge Sky historical past, whereas MSU has a harmful kick returner in Marqui Johnson and two robust punt returners in Taco Dowler and Coy Metal. UM’s Patrick Rohrbach has higher punting numbers than MSU’s Bryce Leighton, however each are strong.

If both can discover a particular groups edge on Saturday, that might make the distinction.

If beginning quarterback Lucas Johnson is ready to play, the Griz will need to permit him to complete it. Twice this season he is been knocked out of video games with accidents, which tilt their trajectory arrow straight downwards. Johnson is second within the Huge Sky Convention in factors chargeable for (150), creating alternatives that they would not have in any other case.

The opposite profit to his safety except for well being could be further time to choose aside the Bobcats’ suspect secondary. If he is afforded time within the pocket, he may have an enormous recreation by way of the air. In back-to-back weeks, the Bobcats have allowed 459 passing yards to Northern Arizona and 317 to last-place Cal Poly.

The Bobcats are first within the Huge Sky with dashing yards per recreation at 316.6. They’ve 4 totally different gamers that common over 50 yards per recreation on the bottom. Letting them get to their robust go well with is not going to be in UM’s greatest curiosity.

As a substitute, the Griz have to do no matter it takes to drive MSU to the sky extra typically. Whether or not that be asserting strain or shutting down a couple of runs early on, they should do it. Whereas MSU does have some weapons within the passing recreation, it solely has one participant with greater than two receiving scores. With Justin Ford, Robby Hauck and others within the UM secondary, that recreation script would go in its favor. 

There are at all times stakes within the Brawl of the Wild, top-of-the-line rivalries in all of school soccer. However much more so this yr the place the Griz can management their very own future in addition to play spoiler — two birds with one stone in one of many greatest video games of the yr.

For starters, Montana State is enjoying for 2 issues: to maintain its 17-game home-winning streak alive and to safe a chunk of the Huge Sky Convention championship. The Griz can put a cease to each issues. In the meantime, the Griz can punch their playoff ticket with a victory. They might nonetheless get in with a loss, however they’d somewhat not depart their destiny within the arms of the choice committee.