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Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter

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Below normal water supply forecasted for Montana after low-snow winter


Montana’s winter is shaping up to have been among the worst for snowpack in 25 years and, combined with current outlooks, has water forecasters warning that streamflow levels this summer could be well below normal across most of the state.

Early last month, Montana forecasters and water supply specialists said the state would need above-average snow during March and early April, and a wet and cool spring, to keep the meager snow left from melting away too quickly and causing low river and streamflows through the growing season and likely drought.

But according to state and federal reports and presentations released during the past two weeks, the recovery the snowpack made in February and early March tapered off in the weeks since and hasn’t continued to the extent forecasters hoped.

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“It’s not likely a full recovery to normal snowpack conditions will occur by May 1 this year across most of Montana,” Montana Snow Survey staff wrote in the April water supply forecast issued by the Natural Resources Conservation Service earlier this month.

“Below normal snowpack conditions on May 1 could be supplemented by above normal spring and summer precipitation, assuming snowpack deficits aren’t too large. Best case scenario would be a return to cooler weather and above normal precipitation for the next months.”

Since 1991, the median day that Montana’s snowpack as a whole reached its peak is April 14, at 18 inches of snow water equivalent, which is the amount of water contained in the snowpack. So far this year, the statewide snowpack peaked at 13.2 inches of snow water equivalent on April 11, three days earlier than normal and nearly 5 inches of snow water equivalent below normal.

The current snowpack of 12 inches of snow water equivalent statewide is just 74% of normal for this time of year, but also in the 7th percentile when compared to 1991-2020. To start the month, one in seven snow monitoring stations in Montana was showing its lowest or second-lowest snowpack on record. More than one-third of them were reporting a snowpack in the 10th percentile or less compared to 1991-2020.

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It’s still possible that storms and cooler weather over the next couple of weeks buoy the snowpack at higher elevations and inhibit the melt-off, but this is typically the time of the year the snowpack starts what most people hope will be a gradual decline.

Last year, the snowpack peaked at 18.1 inches of snow water equivalent on April 25, but a quick melt-off ensued because of unseasonably warm temperatures. Two weeks later, the snowpack was at 12.5 inches of snow water equivalent, and it was completely gone by June 21. The median snow-free date is June 28.

As of Monday, the snowpack was gone in the Bear Paw basin. It sat at 45% of median in the Upper Missouri Basin and between 50% and 69% of normal in the Sun-Teton-Marias, Upper Clark Fork, Bitterroot, Smith-Judith-Musselshell, Upper Yellowstone, Gallatin, Lower Clark Fork, and Flathead basins.

The Jefferson (70%), St. Mary and Kootenai (75% respectively), Madison (76%), Tongue (77%), Powder (78%), and Bighorn (85%) basins were all between 70% and 90% of their average snowpack for this time of the year on Monday.

Last week, Dr. Dennis Todey, director of the Midwest Climate Hub for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, said the Upper Missouri River was running at close to its lowest point above Fort Peck in recent decades, which could have ramifications as the river heads east into the Upper Midwest, which just had one of its driest and warmest winters in 100 years.

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On the other side of the state, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers agreed earlier this month to approve a request from the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes’ Energy Keepers, Inc., to raise Flathead Lake’s spring level by two feet to 2,885 feet and hold more water in the lake.

Energy Keepers said it anticipates 2024 will be similar to the record-low flows seen in 2023 that kicked off a political firestorm surrounding the lake’s levels so it started refilling the lake early and believes the lake will be between 2,888 feet and 2,891 feet by the end of May.

“By taking these actions early in the season we increase the likelihood Flathead Lake will reach its maximum elevation in what forecasters are predicting as another dry year,” said Energy Keepers CEO Brian Lipscomb. “Should we experience unforeseen precipitation then we can make further adjustments. By May, we are prepared to make further changes to standard operations depending on weather conditions.”

Most streamflows are forecast to be between 70% and 85% of normal across all of Montana’s river basins, but could be near normal in parts of northwest, southwest, and southern Montana that saw a better snowpack this year.

But rivers including the Bighole, Blackfoot, Little Bighorn, Tongue, Clark Fork, Smith, Sun, and Teton are expected to see streamflows for April through July below 65% of normal, according to the latest forecasts.

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Those streamflows will be critical to recreation and especially agricultural production this summer, and the relatively dry winter has led to an overall expansion of drought since the beginning of the year, as the area of the state experiencing moderate and severe drought has more than doubled.

But drought conditions improved in Montana throughout March and into the beginning of April. During the past two weeks, moderate and severe drought has declined in southeastern Montana, and less of east-central Montana is abnormally dry than a week before. But after extreme drought disappeared for a week earlier this month, it has shown back up in northern Flathead County and northwestern Mineral County.

“Extreme drought conditions were introduced in the mountainous region along the Idaho and Montana border due to concerns about low snow amounts and possible early snowmelt,” National Drought Mitigation Center forecasters wrote in last Thursday’s report.

The next two weeks could bring some relief if current forecasts hold. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average precipitation over the next 6-14 days, including a possible storm this weekend that could bring rain to lower elevations and snow above 5,500 feet, according to the National Weather Service.

But the forecast for early May currently shows above-average temperatures statewide, and the forecast for May through July shows above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for western Montana, though it also shows equal chances of below- or above-average precipitation and temperatures for eastern Montana for that period.

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That will coincide with the El Niño that has persisted through winter ending, and an increasing likelihood that La Niña starts to develop into August, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which typically means cooler and wetter winters in Montana because the jet stream stays further north.

But July through October are currently forecast to bring above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for Montana, according to the Climate Prediction Center. That means the next several weeks will be key in determining how summer shapes up water-wise.

“Given the widespread low forecasts, above normal precipitation over the next couple of months and a slow melt of the snowpack would be most beneficial for the upcoming summer,” the latest water supply forecast says. “Additionally, a wet summer could help to sustain streamflows later in the season.”

This story was initially published by The Daily Montanan, a nonprofit news organization and part of the States News network, covering state issues. Read more at dailymontanan.com.



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‘It was apocalyptic’, woman tells Crans-Montana memorial service, as bar owner detained

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‘It was apocalyptic’, woman tells Crans-Montana memorial service, as bar owner detained


‘In this shared grief we stand united’: Day of mourning for New Year’s Eve fire victims in Switzerland

Tragedy brought people together in Crans-Montana and brought the country to a standstill.

On Friday, just down the road from the bar where 40 young people were killed by fire on New Year’s Eve, church bells rang in their memory.

They tolled right across Switzerland, to mark a national day of mourning.

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Then, moments after the last notes of a special memorial service had faded, came the news that one of the bar’s owners had been detained.

Swiss prosecutors said Jacques Moretti, a French national, was a potential flight risk. He and his wife Jessica, who is also French, are suspected of manslaughter by negligence, bodily harm by negligence and arson by negligence.

Many of the victims’ families had demanded action like this from the start: more than a week after the fire, the anger in this community has been increasing.

At the main ceremony in Martigny, down in the valley, relatives of the dead were joined by survivors. Some had come from hospital for the memorial. People held white roses in their laps and gripped each other’s hands for support.

“The images we faced were unbearable. A scene worse than a nightmare. Screams ringing out in the icy cold, the smell of burning. It was apocalyptic,” a young woman called Marie told the audience.

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She had been in a bar opposite Le Constellation when the fire broke out and suddenly found herself helping the injured as they ran from the flames.

She said she would never forget what she’d seen.

Listening in the front row were the presidents of France and Italy, whose citizens were among those killed and injured in the fire. Both countries have opened their own investigations.

Back in Rome, Italy’s prime minister vowed to make sure all those responsible were identified.

“This was no accident. It was the result of too many people who did not do their jobs,” Giorgia Meloni said.

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She wants to know why the music wasn’t cut as soon as the fire started.

“Why did no-one tell the young people to get out? Why did the council not make the proper checks? There are too many whys.”

In Crans-Montana people have the same questions and many more.

For now, the only two formal suspects are the co-owners of Le Constellation, Jacques and Jessica Moretti. Early on Friday, the pair were called in by prosecutors. They are being investigated for causing death and injury through negligence but have not been charged.

Now Jacques Moretti has been remanded in custody. In a statement, the public ministry said the move followed a “new assessment of the flight risk.”

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“I constantly think of the victims and of the people who are struggling,” his wife told a crush of TV cameras after several hours of questioning at the ministry.

It was her first public comment since the fire.

“It is an unimaginable tragedy. It happened in our establishment, and I would like to apologise.”

Nine days on, Le Constellation is still obscured from view behind white plastic sheets. A lone policeman stands guard, his face covered against the relentless snow.

What unfolded inside the building’s basement has gradually become clearer – and it’s the story of a disaster that should never have happened.

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Mobile phone footage shows a sparkler tied to a champagne bottle apparently starting the fire as it brushes the ceiling. Covered with soundproofing foam that was never safety tested, it ignites quickly.

When the crowd eventually rush for the exit in panic, there is a crush on the stairs. It seems the emergency doors were blocked.

But another video, from six years ago, suggests the risk was well known. On the footage, a waiter can be heard warning that the material on the ceiling is flammable.

“Be careful with the foam,” the voice shouts, as people wave the same sparklers.

But the questions here are not just for the owners.

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This week the local authorities in Crans made the shocking admission that they hadn’t carried out mandatory safety checks of the bar for five years.

They offered no explanation.

“It was a hell inside that bar. More than 1,000 degrees of temperature. There was no way to escape,” Italy’s ambassador to Switzerland, Gian Lorenzo Cornado, told the BBC, citing a long list of safety violations.

Six Italians were killed as a result.

“Italy wants justice, the Italian government wants justice and the Italian people want justice, for sure. The families want justice,” the ambassador stressed.

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That includes for those with life-changing injuries.

The regional hospital in Sion took the first major influx of patients. The stress was compounded by the fact that many doctors’ own children were partying in Crans for the New Year.

“They were all scared the next stretcher to arrive would be carrying their own child,” hospital director Eric Bonvin remembers.

But he’s proud of how his team coped.

Some casualties were unconscious and so badly burned, it took time to identify them.

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The most serious cases were moved to specialist burns centres elsewhere in Switzerland and in Europe where some are still in a critical condition.

All face a long, tough path to recovery which the doctor likens to a “rebirth” because many of his young patients have severe burns to the face.

“First the body needs to be protected, like the foetus in a mother’s womb. That’s what’s happening for many now. Then they will have to re-enter the world and find their identity,” Professor Bonvin says.

“It will take a lot of work and resilience.”

Add to that the anguish of surviving.

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“They came round and at first they felt lucky to be alive. But some now feel this guilt, wondering why they are here, but not their friend or brother,” Bonvin explains.

“It is a delicate moment.”

In central Crans, the heap of tributes for the dead is still growing, protected from the elements by a canvas.

After leaving their own fresh flowers on Friday, many people then stood in front of the ruins of the bar itself for a moment. Remembering, in silence.



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Montana pediatrician group pushes back against CDC vaccine changes

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Montana pediatrician group pushes back against CDC vaccine changes


This story is excerpted from the MT Lowdown, a weekly newsletter digest containing original reporting and analysis published every Friday.

On Monday, Jan. 5, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced it would downgrade six vaccines on the routine schedule for childhood immunizations. The changes scale back recommendations for hepatitis A and B, influenza, rotavirus, RSV and meningococcal disease. 

That decision — shared by top officials at the federal Department of Health and Human Services — took many public health experts by surprise, in part because of how the administration of President Donald Trump departed from the CDC’s typical process for changing childhood vaccine recommendations. 

Montana Free Press spoke to Atty Moriarty, a Missoula-based pediatrician and president of the Montana Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics, about her perspective on the CDC’s changes. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

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MTFP: What happened in this most recent change and how does that differ from the CDC’s normal process for adjusting childhood vaccination schedules?

Moriarty: The way that vaccines have traditionally been recommended in the past is that vaccines were developed, and then they traditionally went through a formal vetting process before going to the [CDC]’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, which did a full review of the safety data, the efficacy data, and then made recommendations based on that. Since November 2025, that committee has completely been changed and is not a panel of experts, but it is a panel of political appointees that don’t have expertise in public health, let alone infectious disease or immunology. So now, this decision was made purely based unilaterally on opinion and not on any new data or evidence-based medicine. 

MTFP: Can you walk through some of the administration’s stated reasons for these changes?

Moriarty: To be honest, these changes are so nonsensical that it’s really hard. There’s a lot of concern in the new administration and in the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC that we are giving too many immunizations. That, again, is not based on any kind of data or science. And there’s a lot of publicity surrounding the number of vaccines as compared to 30 years ago, and questioning why we give so many. The answer to that is fairly simple. It’s because science has evolved enough that we actually can prevent more diseases. Now, some comparisons have been made to other countries, specifically Denmark, that do not give as many vaccines, but also are a completely different public health landscape and population than the United States and have a completely different public health system in general than we do.

MTFP: Where is the American Academy of Pediatrics [AAP] getting its guidance from now, if not ACIP?

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Moriarty: We really started to separate with the [CDC’s] vaccine recommendations earlier in 2025. So as soon as they stopped recommending the COVID vaccine, that’s when [AAP] published our vaccine schedule that we have published for the last 45 years, but it’s the first time that it differed from the CDC’s. We continue to advocate for immunizations as a public health measure for families and kids, and are using the previous immunization schedule. And that schedule can be found on the [AAP’s] healthychildren.org website.

MTFP: Do any of the recent vaccine scheduling changes concern you more than others?

Moriarty: I think that any pediatrician will tell you that 20-30 years ago, hospitals were completely full of babies with rotavirus infection. That is an infection that is a gastrointestinal disease and causes severe dehydration in babies. I’m nervous about that coming roaring back because babies die of dehydration. It’s one of the top reasons they’re admitted to the hospital. I’m nervous about their recommendation against the flu vaccine. [The U.S. is] in one of the worst flu outbreaks we’ve ever seen currently right now and have had many children die already this season. 

MTFP: Do you think, though, that hearing this changed guidance from the Trump administration will change some families’ minds about what vaccines they’ll elect to get for their children?

Moriarty: Oh, absolutely. We saw that before this recommendation. I mean, social media is such a scary place to get medical information, and [listening to] talking heads on the news is just really not an effective way to find medical information, but we see people getting it all the time. I meet families in the hospital that make decisions for their kids based on TikTok. So I think that one of the effects of this is going to be to sow more distrust in the public health infrastructure that we have in the United States that has kept our country healthy.

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Montana Lottery Lucky For Life, Big Sky Bonus results for Jan. 8, 2026

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The Montana Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big. Here’s a look at Jan. 8, 2026, results for each game:

Winning Lucky For Life numbers from Jan. 8 drawing

05-12-13-39-48, Lucky Ball: 13

Check Lucky For Life payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Big Sky Bonus numbers from Jan. 8 drawing

05-15-20-28, Bonus: 16

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Check Big Sky Bonus payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

When are the Montana Lottery drawings held?

  • Powerball: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
  • Mega Millions: 9 p.m. MT on Tuesday and Friday.
  • Lucky For Life: 8:38 p.m. MT daily.
  • Lotto America: 9 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
  • Big Sky Bonus: 7:30 p.m. MT daily.
  • Powerball Double Play: 8:59 p.m. MT on Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
  • Montana Cash: 8 p.m. MT on Wednesday and Saturday.

Missed a draw? Peek at the past week’s winning numbers.

Winning lottery numbers are sponsored by Jackpocket, the official digital lottery courier of the USA TODAY Network.

Where can you buy lottery tickets?

Tickets can be purchased in person at gas stations, convenience stores and grocery stores. Some airport terminals may also sell lottery tickets.

You can also order tickets online through Jackpocket, the official digital lottery courier of the USA TODAY Network, in these U.S. states and territories: Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., and West Virginia. The Jackpocket app allows you to pick your lottery game and numbers, place your order, see your ticket and collect your winnings all using your phone or home computer.

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Jackpocket is the official digital lottery courier of the USA TODAY Network. Gannett may earn revenue for audience referrals to Jackpocket services. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 18+ (19+ in NE, 21+ in AZ). Physically present where Jackpocket operates. Jackpocket is not affiliated with any State Lottery. Eligibility Restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. Terms: jackpocket.com/tos.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Great Falls Tribune editor. You can send feedback using this form.



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