Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 67 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 72 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Synopsis

High pressure north of the islands will produce moderate trade winds through Monday. Wind speeds will weaken from Tuesday through Thursday as a weak cold front passes north of the island chain. Trade winds slowly return by the end of next week as the stalled front diminishes and the broad ridge builds back over the region.

Short term update

The infrared satellite imagery this evening shows a shallow cold front roughly 600 miles northwest of Kauai approaching the Hawaii region. This frontal cloud band will weaken and stall out north of the state with no significant rainfall impacts. Trade wind speed trends however will decrease as the trough breaks down the ridge north of the island chain. Light large scale winds over Hawaii from Tuesday through Thursday will trigger and expansion of onshore sea breezes during the daylight hours and offshore land breezes overnight. These light local scale winds are driven by diurnal thermal differences between ocean temperatures and island heating/cooling cycles.
The short range forecast grids look reasonable. No updates to the evening forecast.

Prev discussion

Issued at 352 PM HST Sat May 2 2026 Radar and satellite show mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers across most windward and many mauka areas, along with the Kona region of the Big Island, this afternoon. Very few showers have made it to leeward areas, but a good amount of cloud cover has moved in from time to time. Winds were generally out of the northeast at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts, but some leeward areas had west winds coming in off the ocean. These showers will decrease in the Kona region this evening, but otherwise should continue into the night.
With the upper low to our northeast finally moving away, upper level ridging will be able to strengthen. This will keep moderate to occasionally breezy trade winds with us through Monday as surface high pressure systems to our NE and NW move east across the Pacific. A weak trough (dying cold front) will move toward the area Monday, and pressure falls associated with its approach will veer winds to southeasterly Monday night. Light north to northeast winds behind the trough are expected to develop over western islands Wednesday, perhaps reaching as far east as Maui Wednesday night. With light winds Tuesday through Thursday, expect a few more clouds than normal over leeward areas, and perhaps a brief shower.
Winds will then return to southeasterly Thursday and remain that way into next weekend. PW values will be relatively low throughout the next week. The only day of values noticeably above 1″ will be Wednesday, when convergence from the surface trough will peak. Trades may return next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy easterly trades will persist through Sunday, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward sites. Expect periods of MVFR conditions in showers, otherwise widespread VFR is expected.
No AIRMETS are in effect.

Marine

No changes to the forecast this evening, and not expecting any significant changes with the morning package.
High pressure to the north-northeast will maintain trade winds through the remainder of the weekend. A front to the northwest will move to the east and help to weaken the ridge to the north. As a result, expect trades to steadily weaken, becoming light and variable by the middle of the week.
The current northwest swell (310-320 degrees) will gradually fade over the remainder of the weekend. Another small swell is expected to arrive late Sunday night/early Monday morning, and will help to maintain elevated surf along north and west facing shores. A storm low near Japan is expected to move to the east and will send a long period northwest swell to the islands. This swell (320 degrees) is expected to arrive Thursday, but currently expected to peak below advisory levels.
The current south swell will hold through the remainder of the weekend, and then gradually decline. As trades steadily weaken, wind waves and trade wind swell will follow with diminishing surf expected along east facing shores during the next several days.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov

A regular Hawaii flyer who reads BOH just put words to what longtime travelers are now seeing when booking flights. Fares have surged, planes are half empty, and the carrier that promised to break the monopoly just rolled out a loyalty program instead of keeping fares low.

Jim flies between islands often enough to know when something feels off. He told us he can afford to fly but is choosing not to, and maybe that says more than anything else right now. His focus was not on his own travel. He kept coming back to families and what it looks like when four people try to book a simple Hawaii flight from Honolulu and see totals pushing past $1,000 round trip for twenty-minute flights. He tied last week’s Hawaiian final integration by Alaska directly to the timing, with changes rushing in at once because something about the pricing suddenly felt less stable.

He did not soften it and said the Aloha spirit has been replaced by what he called a greedy eye for profit. Jim asked Alaska to explain what was happening, and he is not alone. He is just someone who said it clearly.

Fares up, planes not full, but the math no longer works for anyone.

Fuel is the obvious headline, but it does not completely explain what visitors and residents are seeing. The Middle East conflict pushed jet fuel to over $200 in a matter of weeks, hitting an industry where fuel now accounts for an unacceptably high percentage of operating expenses. US carriers largely folded that increase into base fares rather than as a separate charge, which helps explain some of the jump but not the entire pricing behavior now showing up on Hawaii interisland flights.

Federal Department of Transportation data covering the 12 months through August 2025 showed Southwest filling just 51.9% of its Hawaii flights between islands, while Hawaiian sat near 74% over that same period. That disparity has held for years now, and planes that are half full usually do not support higher fares because airlines lower prices to fill empty seats. That is how this business works when carriers actually compete.

We checked it ourselves this week. Lihue to Honolulu for meetings in June came back at about $230 round trip per person before any seat selection or other fees, and the flights were wide open on both Hawaiian/Alaska, and on Southwest across the day, with plenty of seats and seemingly no pressure on availability. High fares alongside empty inventory are telltale. This is not a capacity problem; it is a pricing decision.

Southwest came to Hawaii to break the monopoly then finally stopped trying.

Southwest entered Hawaii in 2019 with a simple pitch. Break the Hawaiian Airlines monopoly and keep fares honest. The $39 fare sales became the symbol of that promise, and people remember those numbers because they reset expectations overnight.

Those fares are gone. They did not just fade slowly; they stopped showing up. Southwest never got its Hawaii loads where it needed them, and even after cutting capacity twice in 2025 to shrink its operation, the planes stayed underfilled. Hawaiian held steady in the mid-70% range on the last count, while the competitive pressure that was supposed to keep prices in check no longer seems to matter.

Now both carriers are moving in the same direction on price, and fuel gave them a great reason to move together. No one needed to say anything publicly. The result is the same: the discount era has ended, and nothing valuable has replaced it on the fare side.

Airline points programs are not fare sales.

This week, Southwest expanded its Ohana Rewards program for Hawaii residents, and the pitch sounds familiar. Hawaii residents earn 1,000 points per one-way flight, awards starting at 4,000 points, two free checked bags, and a quarterly 10% discount code.

So two full-fare round-trip tickets earn one free one-way ticket. Is that a deal when the cost per flight is so much higher than it has been before? It asks residents to pay full price repeatedly to earn back a fraction of a trip, and for Hawaii visitors its even worse.

Southwest used to advertise fares that moved the market. Now it advertises points that require multiple paid trips to unlock a limited return. Hawaiian’s Huakai program runs essentially the same playbook on the other side. The headline is up to 20% off one neighbor island booking per quarter, but that’s only for holders of the old Hawaiian Airlines Mastercard. Regular members get 10%. The discount code applies to up to 6 companions on the same reservation. Perks sit atop high prices, with rules that make them hard to use.

When Southwest, which built its reputation on cheap fares to Hawaii, shifts to selling loyalty points, the signal is clear. The focus moved from filling seats with lower prices to holding prices high and offering rewards later, and reader Jim saw that shift when booking, before any press release explained it.

Residents bear the highest cost when flights to Hawaii become a luxury.

Mainland visitors experience it differently. If they book a direct flight to Maui, Kauai, or Kona and stay put, there is no impact. And that direct to neighbor island flight shift has been building for years as mainland carriers added more nonstop routes to Maui, the Big Island, and Kauai. Flying between the Hawaii islands is no longer a key part of many visitors’ itineraries.

The people left flying between islands are residents, and some visitors, those visiting multiple islands, and those going to see family, attend meetings, handle medical appointments, show up for events, or support kids playing sports and music across the islands. Many of these are not optional trips. There is no ferry, there is no road, and flying Southwest or Alaska is the only way.

When fares double and stay there, the choice becomes simple and hard at the same time. Pay it or do not go. Jim chose not to go because he could make that call, but many could not.

The group with the least flexibility is paying the highest prices, and the carriers serving that market have stopped competing on airfare. What they are offering is Hawaii resident loyalty programs of far less value than better airfares.

Jim said it plainly. That is not Aloha when, in a Hawaii flight market, the people who need the service most are the ones with the fewest options.

The shift arrived suddenly.

Two airlines that once competed hard on price are now moving together, and loyalty program enhancements are landing at the same time as clear airfare spikes. Fuel is the reason everyone can easily point to, but the alignment on pricing is the piece that people feel, and that we are writing about. Jim asked Alaska to explain itself, and he has not heard anything that answers his question.

What are you seeing when booking Hawaii flights now? Please tell us in the comments below.

Photo Credit of Waikiki from Diamond Head: © Beat of Hawaii.

Forecast for Big Island Windward and Southeast

Forecast for Big Island Leeward

An incoming northwesterly swell will bring rising surf to north and west shores overnight, with surf peaking near advisory levels, before gradually easing through the weekend. Another, slightly smaller northwest swell is expected early next week, and another long-period northwest swell may arrive late next week. Surf along south facing showers will trend upwards over the weekend with the arrival of a long-period south-southwest swell. Surf along east facing shores will trend downward over the weekend as the trade winds weaken.

NORTH EAST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Semi choppy with ESE winds 5-10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph in the afternoon.

NORTH WEST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Clean in the morning with ESE winds less than 5mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting W 5-10mph.

WEST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Light sideshore texture in the morning with NNW winds 5-10mph. Bumpy/semi bumpy conditions for the afternoon with the winds shifting to the WNW.

SOUTH EAST

am        pm  

Surf: Minimal (ankle high or less) surf.

Conditions: Sideshore texture/chop with NE winds 10-15mph.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov and SwellInfo.com