Hilo

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Haze. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 69 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Saturday: Sunny…breezy and haze. Highs 83 to 91 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows around 73 near the shore to 51 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Synopsis

Trade winds will persist through the week and will be breezy and gusty Saturday through Tuesday. Showers will be focused along typical windward and mauka areas, as well as the Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon.

Discussion

Rather typical June trade wind conditions are in place. Broad high pressure north of the state is driving moderate to locally breezy trade winds, and a mid-level ridge overhead is producing very stable conditions with an inversion based between 5,000 and 6,500 ft. As a result, modest showers of mostly a quarter of an inch or less have been focused along windward areas since less night, with the highest totals on the Big Island and Maui. Expect minimal windward rainfall today, and aside from scattered afternoon and evening showers along the Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will be dry. A weak upper-level low centered west of Kauai will send thin high clouds overhead but will otherwise have no impact on local weather today.
An uptick in the trades will occur during the weekend as high pressure builds north of the islands. Breezy and gusty winds will gradually increase Saturday and peak Sunday. Little change in the shower pattern is expected over most islands, though a modest increase in rainfall is possible over Kauai as the above mentioned upper-level low drifts closer.
Trade winds and a typical pattern of mainly windward showers will persist next week. Breezy and gusty trades will hold through Tuesday then drop slightly midweek. Stable conditions will persist with no significant sources of enhanced moisture noted in the guidance.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will focus incoming low clouds and showers over windward and mauka areas. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur overnight along the windward slopes, with the possibility of AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscurations. VFR conditions expected elsewhere through Saturday.
AIRMET Tango is posted for tempo moderate turbulence leeward of mountains across all islands. This will likely continue through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

Marine

High pressure will build far north of the islands this weekend and will strengthen the trade winds a notch especially Sunday into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Sunday, but will likely need to be expanded in coverage and extended as the trades strengthen.
Surf along south facing shores will be small through Saturday. A series of small, long period, south swells originating from fetches near New Zealand will help boost surf heights near the summer average (5 feet) throughout next week. The first boost should fill in Sunday into Monday, followed by another bump Wednesday into Thursday of next week.
Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores are expected to slightly increase this weekend into early next week due to trade winds strengthening. Surf will remain at seasonable levels (nearly flat) along north facing shores throughout the forecast period. Some select exposures could see some tradewind swell wrap.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov