Denver, CO

Improving Investor Behavior: Market forecasting is a loser’s game

Published

1 year ago

August 18, 2024

It’s Friday, Aug. 2, and I’m writing this article with CNBC open on my browser. The headline shouts, “Dow Loses 750 Points, Nasdaq Enters Correction After Weak Jobs Report.” The week was rough, with markets retracting from what felt like a month of steady new highs. A scant few weeks ago, investors were piling cash into highly valued tech stocks. Now they can’t seem to exit fast enough. Fear and greed pervade.

For frequent readers of this column, a correction should come as no surprise. They happen every 12 to 18 months as a “normal” part of financial markets reacting to economic and market growth. Corporate earnings, the most recent jobs report, and the wait-and-see Federal Reserve seem to be contributing factors, but focusing on these each month is akin to analyzing the bugs on your windshield: watch too closely, and you’re likely to crash. For long-term investors, “corrections” (I still dislike that word) are a mere hiccup on the path to a bigger future.

Steve Booren (handout)

But news broadcasters, of course, have a different perspective. The week’s headlines touted “Investor Recession Fears,” “Sharpest Weekly Losses.” In the next breath we read “Earnings Flurry Boosts Indexes,” and “Dow Closes Higher Buoyed by Bullish Inflation Report.” Bull or bear, it’s been a dramatic couple of weeks. As Dickens wrote, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

The news is inherently reactive. Anchors have the unenviable task of filling 24 hours of on-air time daily, so besides reporting on the event, they also feel the need to attempt to explain why it happened (or add some drama). Sometimes this is straightforward; other times — especially around financial markets — it’s downright impossible.

Daily market movements are random. Period. For fun, start each day by guessing whether your favorite index is going to finish the day up or down. Write down your guess. Do it for a month, and see how many days you get it right. The reality is that daily market movements are affected by so many variables that choosing up, down, or flat follows the same probability as a coin flip. What’s comical is financial media’s need to explain why the coin landed heads up.

Remember: volatility drives the narrative; the narrative does not drive volatility. When markets go down, “professionals” attempt to explain why. Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong, but we can never measure their accuracy. So why do we listen to them?

As humans, we want answers. Cause and effect. The market went down 800 points; why? Markets are hugely amorphous, so we turn to “professionals” to explain the details. They give us a “reason,” and we wonder how we could be so silly to have missed the signs.

Taking a step back shows us how crazy it is to believe one person could flawlessly understand why markets moved on any given day. This is akin to someone explaining that the coin landed heads up because the wind blew. It’s insanity, yet we expect it, accept it, and worse yet, get on board with it. Human behavior craves certainty and stability, yet these are mere mental mirages crafted by those seeking to keep our attention.

This leads to an even bigger problem: predictions. Given an audience, reporters may feel empowered to start guessing the outcome of the coin flip before it even starts. Viewers might like to understand why something happened, but if they could know the outcome ahead of time? Well, that’s the promised land. And the media loves to give the viewer what they want, even if it’s completely wrong.

This is nothing new. In the mid-1980s, as a fresh-faced adviser working for a large firm, I once picked up a renowned economist from Stapleton Airport. My job was to drive him to Breckenridge for a research conference where he’d present his future predictions. At the time, interest rates were climbing, inflation was high, and he believed emphatically that mortgage rates were going to keep rising and never come back down.

That guess was wrong. Very wrong. Later in his career, he said Y2K was going to cause a worldwide recession, comparing it to the energy crisis of the early 1970s. Wrong again. Today he (naturally) owns a huge market research firm. As our compliance department says, “Past performance is not indicative of future success.”

Though we may wish for accurate forecasting, the truth is we have no facts about the future. We don’t know what will happen or how markets will react. Humans tend to make decisions with emotion instead of common sense, and we ignore mistakes and the wisdom they bring. That’s why human nature is a poor investor.

Choosing to do the right thing — the hard thing — takes effort and discipline. It also takes a perspective that feels unnatural but makes sense when taken at face value. Invest for the long term. Remove the guesswork, and ignore those who try to convince you they have an edge. Fall back on humility as a key character trait, recognizing that your knowledge and assumptions have limits. Above all, ask why. Not why something happened; in markets that answer isn’t knowable. Instead ask why someone is trying to explain the unexplainable. You’ll find far more insight.

Steve Booren is the founder of Prosperion Financial Advisors in Greenwood Village. He is the author of “Blind Spots: The Mental Mistakes Investors Make” and “Intelligent Investing: Your Guide to a Growing Retirement Income.” He was named by Forbes as a 2021 Best-in-State Wealth Advisor, and a Barron’s 2021 Top Advisor by State. This column is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations.

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Denver, CO

Denver Broncos Week 18 opponent just lost a huge defensive contributor

Published

4 hours ago

December 22, 2025

Press Room

Denver Broncos Week 18 opponent just lost a huge defensive contributor

The Denver Broncos saw their 11-game winning streak end thanks to the Jacksonville Jaguars. It was a pretty brutal performance all the way around from Denver, but thanks to that 11-game winning streak, the Broncos were actually able to lose a game – they could afford a loss, if that makes sense.

Even with the Bills, Chargers, and Patriots all winning in Week 16, the 12-3 Broncos are still atop the AFC West and atop the AFC. All Denver has to do is win their final two games, and both things will be clinched. With Denver slowly beginning to battle key injuries, getting that first-round bye could be massive for the health of the team.

With the Kansas City Chiefs likely starting a third-string QB in Week 17, you would like to think that Denver can take care of business and get to 13-3, which could set up a massive showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers for the division title. Well, that game just got a bit more interesting, as a key Chargers’ defensive player was just suspended.

Chargers lose starting linebacker Denzel Perryman to a two-game suspension

Here is the update from Tom Pelissero:

Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman has been suspended without pay for two games for repeated violations of playing rules intended to protect the health and safety of players, including during Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 22, 2025

Denzel Perryman is a starting linebacker for the Los Angeles Chargers and was essentially suspended two games for not playing a clean, safe version of football. This obviously means that Perryman is not suiting up for the remainder of the regular season, but will be back in time for the playoffs.

Perryman, 33 years old, is on his second stint with the Chargers and has now played in 10 games this year. In those 1- games, he’s racked up three passes defended, 47 total tackles, and four tackles for loss. Perryman is definitely more of a tone-setter on the defensive side of the ball and not someone who is going to make those hyper-athletic splashy plays that some linebackers can make.

This is huge for the Chargers’ defense, a very good unit thanks to defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, but the personnel on that side of the ball aren’t super talented. The Chargers are one of those teams that honestly benefit more from great coaching than they do having more talent than the opponent.

The Bolts can still win the AFC West, but they would have to win their final two games. Not having Denzel Perryman for a massive Week 18 showdown in Denver is flat-out massive and a huge blow to their defense.

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Denver, CO

Win over Broncos should allow Jaguars to think about ‘super’ heights

Published

16 hours ago

December 22, 2025

Press Room

Win over Broncos should allow Jaguars to think about ‘super’ heights

The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the Denver Broncos 34-20, ending the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak.
Jacksonville’s victory has positioned them as a potential Super Bowl contender in the AFC.
Coach Liam Coen used comments from Broncos coach Sean Payton about Jacksonville being a “smaller market” as motivation.

DENVER — Time to recalibrate our expectations for this Jacksonville Jaguars team. Time to set a higher bar. Time to think about bigger things. Time to talk about goals beyond an AFC South title.

Like Super Bowl things.

How can you not after watching the Jaguars beat the Denver Broncos 34-20 at the cauldron known as Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, Dec. 21? It was impressive and thorough and workmanlike, how the Jaguars ended the Broncos’ 11-game winning streak and handed them their first home loss in more than a year.

The Jaguars should believe a division title — they lead the Houston Texans by a game — isn’t enough.

The Jaguars should feel winning a first-round playoff game is only the beginning of a magical run in January/February.

And the Jaguars should be confident regardless of whether they have to return to Denver or play at New England next month.

“The fight of this team,” veteran receiver Tim Patrick said as he shook his head. “It was our first time this year going back and forth against somebody and battling and the continued will to execute at a high level when the pressure was on, I’m definitely proud of the guys.”

Welcome to the party, Jaguars. The Super Bowl Contender Party.

Hey, New England, Denver and Buffalo in the AFC and the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle, Philadelphia and Chicago in the NFC, make a place at the table for the Jaguars, who have won 11 games in a season for the first time since 2007 and have a six-game heater for the first time since 1999.

They … have … arrived.

“It’s not about ‘arriving’ — I knew what we had in OTAs (last spring),” cornerback Jourdan Lewis said. “I guess the rest of the league (now) understands who we are.”

Coen doesn’t care about narrative

Opponents should understand the Jaguars are hitting a new stride in their passing game (three touchdowns for quarterback Trevor Lawrence), have myriad play-makers (take a bow, receiver Parker Washington) and are all kinds of opportunistic on defense (two more takeaways).

But maybe to spice things up and feed the internal narrative that nobody believe in them, Jaguars coach Liam Coen found a new target last week: Broncos coach Sean Payton.

During the week, Payton said of the Jaguars: “It’s a smaller market, but you see a real good team.”

Not sure what being a smaller market has to do with winning in the NFL with revenue sharing and the salary cap, but Payton tends to stir the pot, even if it isn’t on purpose.

You really never know where Coen is going to take a press conference. To get the briefing going, I threw out an innocuous, big-picture question about all three phases contributing to the win. (And they did. The special teams was lights out.)

“Great team effort,” Coen began.

But then, he couldn’t help himself.

“Just thankful that a small-market team like us can come into a place like Mile High and get it done,” Coen continued.

Boom. I asked Coen if it really was a rallying cry.

“You know … yes. Yeah,” he said.

Whatever works. Back in Week 4, San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh was the figurative bullseye. Being a home underdog to Indianapolis two weeks ago was noted. Entering this game, it was Payton.

Manufactured motivation has been a part of sports at all levels since the first newspaper was published and first microphone was turned on to gather audio.

Look, as I talked to a long-time team employee earlier this month about, the Jaguars won’t get their desired respect even if they won the Super Bowl. The headlines outside Jacksonville the next morning would be more about the losing team.

Coen kinda embraces it, but sorta not.

“We don’t really care about the narrative,” he said. “I want that narrative to keep coming. It’s only helping us.”

Team getting better each week

You know what’s really helping the Jaguars? They’re a darn good team. A team improving each week.

This is why I won’t make a habit of writing the “Nobody believes in us. Nobody respects us,” card. I’ll leave that to players, coaches and fans.

What should be the focus is how the Jaguars took the lead over Denver for good with 4:33 left in the second quarter, part of a stretch where they outscored the Broncos 27-7.

Against the Broncos’ league-best red zone defense, the Jaguars went 4 of 5.

Against the Broncos’ league-best third down defense, the Jaguars went 8 of 15.

And against the Broncos’ league-best pass rush, the Jaguars gave up five sacks, but for a total of 14 lost yards.

The Jaguars offense is borderline unstoppable with a league-high 12 games of at least 25 points.

After consecutive punts to open the game, the Jaguars went touchdown, punt, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown and field goal to take control.

After allowing a Denver touchdown, the Jaguars’ defense went field goal, punt, touchdown, punt, fumble, field goal and interception over the next seven possessions.

As we head toward Christmas, this Jaguars season — unexpectedly entertaining and successful — is presenting you, the fans, the best kind of present. And it’s a ride that may not end until mid-February in Santa Clara, Calif.

“My expectations were already high,” Patrick said. “This was just another stop.”

Just another stop, but a huge stop on the way to the Super Bowl.

Contact O’Halloran at rohalloran@gannett.com

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Denver, CO

Broncos vs. Jags first quarter recap

Published

1 day ago

December 21, 2025

Press Room

The Denver Broncos won the opening coin toss and deferred to the second half to bring out Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense to start the game. Interestingly, the Jaguars only sent out former-Broncos wide receiver Tim Patrick as their lone team captain on the coin toss.

Jonathon Cooper almost got a sack on the first play, but Lawrence was able to dump it off for an incompletion instead. Two plays later on third and four, Riley Moss chased Lawrence down for a sack to force a quick three-and-out. Denver wouldn’t do anything with their possession due to a dropped pass by RJ Harvey and a false start on Garett Bolles, so the Jaguars would get the ball right back.

The Broncos defense wasn’t playing to start the game. Talanoa Hufanga and Jonah Elliss made create open field tackles for minimal gains, then John Franklin-Myers broke through inside to sack Lawrence to force another three-and-out early in the first quarter.

On the first play of their next drive, Jaleel McLaughlin nearly broke one for an 80+ yarder but was caught by a shoestring tackle for just a 16-yard gain instead.

Two plays later, McLaughlin ripped off another nice gain of nine, then on third and one, Nix was stuffed on a quarterback keeper. They decided to go for it on fourth and inches where Harvey just barely dove forward to pick up the first down. The Jaguars would challenge the spot, but the call stood for the critical first down on their own side of the field.

Bo Nix then fired a sideline pass to Courtland Sutton who toe-tapped for a 17-yard gain into Jaguars territory. Nix went right back to Sutton for another quick pass for a 14-yard gain into field goal range.

They’d stall out from there, however, and had to settle for a 44-yard field goal attempt by Wil Lutz that doinked off the right upright to keep the game scoreless.

The defense seemed to keep the pressure going with Lawrence a bit skittish in the pocket and quickly found themselves in a third and nine. But he settled in on third down with a last second throw after having all day to find Parker Washington for a first down and a 21-yard gain.

After a nice pass breakup by Riley Moss on first down and a stuffed run, Lawrence was again in a third and long. The Broncos got another sack and fumble, but the play was blown dead. P.J. Locke was charged with a penalty because he didn’t hear the dead ball whistle to give the Jaguars another first down.

The crowd noise hurt the Broncos on that play to put Jacksonville into field goal range.

The first quarter wound down with the Jaguars scoring a touchdown on a Lawrence third down throw to Washington for 12 yards.

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