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Improving Investor Behavior: Market forecasting is a loser’s game

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Improving Investor Behavior: Market forecasting is a loser’s game


It’s Friday, Aug. 2, and I’m writing this article with CNBC open on my browser. The headline shouts, “Dow Loses 750 Points, Nasdaq Enters Correction After Weak Jobs Report.” The week was rough, with markets retracting from what felt like a month of steady new highs. A scant few weeks ago, investors were piling cash into highly valued tech stocks. Now they can’t seem to exit fast enough. Fear and greed pervade.

For frequent readers of this column, a correction should come as no surprise. They happen every 12 to 18 months as a “normal” part of financial markets reacting to economic and market growth. Corporate earnings, the most recent jobs report, and the wait-and-see Federal Reserve seem to be contributing factors, but focusing on these each month is akin to analyzing the bugs on your windshield: watch too closely, and you’re likely to crash. For long-term investors, “corrections” (I still dislike that word) are a mere hiccup on the path to a bigger future.

Steve Booren (handout)

But news broadcasters, of course, have a different perspective. The week’s headlines touted “Investor Recession Fears,” “Sharpest Weekly Losses.” In the next breath we read “Earnings Flurry Boosts Indexes,” and “Dow Closes Higher Buoyed by Bullish Inflation Report.” Bull or bear, it’s been a dramatic couple of weeks. As Dickens wrote, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”

The news is inherently reactive. Anchors have the unenviable task of filling 24 hours of on-air time daily, so besides reporting on the event, they also feel the need to attempt to explain why it happened (or add some drama). Sometimes this is straightforward; other times — especially around financial markets — it’s downright impossible.

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Daily market movements are random. Period. For fun, start each day by guessing whether your favorite index is going to finish the day up or down. Write down your guess. Do it for a month, and see how many days you get it right. The reality is that daily market movements are affected by so many variables that choosing up, down, or flat follows the same probability as a coin flip. What’s comical is financial media’s need to explain why the coin landed heads up.

Remember: volatility drives the narrative; the narrative does not drive volatility. When markets go down, “professionals” attempt to explain why. Maybe they’re right, maybe they’re wrong, but we can never measure their accuracy. So why do we listen to them?

As humans, we want answers. Cause and effect. The market went down 800 points; why? Markets are hugely amorphous, so we turn to “professionals” to explain the details. They give us a “reason,” and we wonder how we could be so silly to have missed the signs.

Taking a step back shows us how crazy it is to believe one person could flawlessly understand why markets moved on any given day. This is akin to someone explaining that the coin landed heads up because the wind blew. It’s insanity, yet we expect it, accept it, and worse yet, get on board with it. Human behavior craves certainty and stability, yet these are mere mental mirages crafted by those seeking to keep our attention.

This leads to an even bigger problem: predictions. Given an audience, reporters may feel empowered to start guessing the outcome of the coin flip before it even starts. Viewers might like to understand why something happened, but if they could know the outcome ahead of time? Well, that’s the promised land. And the media loves to give the viewer what they want, even if it’s completely wrong.

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This is nothing new. In the mid-1980s, as a fresh-faced adviser working for a large firm, I once picked up a renowned economist from Stapleton Airport. My job was to drive him to Breckenridge for a research conference where he’d present his future predictions. At the time, interest rates were climbing, inflation was high, and he believed emphatically that mortgage rates were going to keep rising and never come back down.

That guess was wrong. Very wrong. Later in his career, he said Y2K was going to cause a worldwide recession, comparing it to the energy crisis of the early 1970s. Wrong again. Today he (naturally) owns a huge market research firm. As our compliance department says, “Past performance is not indicative of future success.”

Though we may wish for accurate forecasting, the truth is we have no facts about the future. We don’t know what will happen or how markets will react. Humans tend to make decisions with emotion instead of common sense, and we ignore mistakes and the wisdom they bring. That’s why human nature is a poor investor.

Choosing to do the right thing — the hard thing — takes effort and discipline. It also takes a perspective that feels unnatural but makes sense when taken at face value. Invest for the long term. Remove the guesswork, and ignore those who try to convince you they have an edge. Fall back on humility as a key character trait, recognizing that your knowledge and assumptions have limits. Above all, ask why. Not why something happened; in markets that answer isn’t knowable. Instead ask why someone is trying to explain the unexplainable. You’ll find far more insight.

Steve Booren is the founder of Prosperion Financial Advisors in Greenwood Village. He is the author of “Blind Spots: The Mental Mistakes Investors Make” and “Intelligent Investing: Your Guide to a Growing Retirement Income.” He was named by Forbes as a 2021 Best-in-State Wealth Advisor, and a Barron’s 2021 Top Advisor by State. This column is not intended to provide specific investment advice or recommendations.

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David Fountaine Black Obituary | The Denver Post

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David Fountaine Black Obituary |  The Denver Post



David Fountaine Black


OBITUARY

Dave and Martha and their three boys moved to Denver in 1974 when Dave started work at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal. He and a business partner later purchased Mid-America Plating Company. Dave operated Mid-America for 36 years and finally retired in 2018.

He was a great golfer and natural athlete. Dave was an avid runner, and for many years, he woke up before the sun to get his miles in before work. He and Martha loved playing bridge with friends, gardening – growing fruit and flowers – and spending time outside relaxing and walking on the High Line Canal Trail and in Bible Park. Dave and Martha enjoyed getting back to Arizona during the winter at their Tucson home. They loved spending time with their family.

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Dave passed away on February 20, 2026. He is loved by family and friends and will be missed. Dave was a hard-working, kind, optimistic, and thoughtful person who leaves the world a better place. He is survived by his wife, Martha, and his three sons, Dave (Robin), Tom (Debbie), Eric (Kendra), as well as six grandchildren and three great grandchildren, Casey (Nicole), Jake (Ashleigh and great granddaughter Faye), Hailey (Robby and great granddaughter Jensen), Keenan (Nicole and great granddaughter Olivia), Griffin, and Addie (Erik).



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10 takeaways from the Celtics looking a step behind in Denver

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10 takeaways from the Celtics looking a step behind in Denver


Sometimes in life, you feel like you’re a step behind. Nothing big, but yet, it creates a difference between where you should be and where you are, and this small difference has consequences. Well, that’s how it felt looking at the Celtics’ off-ball defense last night.

This first bucket from the Nuggets is a great example of the Nuggets being a step ahead. The screen from Cam Johnson causes a bit of chaos as Derrick White and Jaylen Brown don’t switch, leaving a lot of space for Jamal Murray to cut to the rim. A few possessions later, it’s Brown again who is half a second late when Johnson starts moving, and that’s enough for the Nuggets to punish the Celtics.

Denver is a very smart, very well coached team. It isn’t a surprise they involved Jordan Walsh’s matchup in the screen because the young wing has a tendency to overpressure off-ball. Therefore, with all the screens and movement the Nuggets are creating, it is hard for him to keep up.

This game was a great example of what makes a team like Denver so good. They can find a breach in a great defense by targeting players’ tendencies. Like the Celtics, they scout, they learn, and they adapt their approach to the opponent, and it worked out pretty well, even in garbage time.

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#2 – The offense broke under pressure

On offense, the Celtics lost the ball on more than 15% of their possessions. When this happens, the Celtics have a 50% win rate. Taking care of the ball is one of the foundations of that team, and they couldn’t deliver last night. Led by Bruce Brown and Spencer Jones, the Nuggets put a lot of pressure on the Celtics’ ball-handlers.

They also didn’t hesitate to bring a second defender to force a quicker decision and generated some mistakes from Boston. With that appetite for steals and the domination on the offensive glass, the Denver Nuggets were able to generate 10 more field-goal attempts than the Celtics. And when the Celtics lose the possession battle, it becomes a lot harder to compete against the best teams in the league.

It was a different sight than usual on defense for the Denver Nuggets. We are used to seeing Jokic hedging on the pick-and-roll to force a pass and put pressure on the ball-handler, but this wasn’t the case last night. The guards put a lot of pressure while the Serbian was commanding from the back.

It was an interesting way to take away the paint from the Celtics while showing bodies beyond the three-point line. While Jokic was in the paint behind the pick-and-roll, the Nuggets’ closest defender next to the screen would come to disrupt the action.

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Thanks to that, Jokic had less effort to expend on defense and could compensate on offense. In some possessions, Jokic would come up to surprise the ball-handler and create some chaos, like here:

But overall, the 3-time MVP remained in a drop position, and this explains why the Celtics had so much trouble getting to the paint last night.

#4 – Denver daring Ron Harper Junior to shoot

The young wing is discovering the NBA and what it is like to be scouted by the best teams in the world. After a standout performance against the Suns, he was back on the bench to start the game. Yet, like every other player on the roster, the Nuggets scouted him and had a plan in mind for when he would come onto the court.

As the defensive plan was to protect the paint at all costs, they decided to leave him alone beyond the line to make sure the Celtics touched the paint as little as possible.

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The Celtics tried to get him involved in the screening action, hoping he would draw some attention from the defense, but the Nuggets couldn’t care less about his shooting threat.

In the end, that approach worked out pretty well for Denver as Harper shot one for seven from deep in 10 minutes. This also took away part of his offensive impact, and the Celtics had to adapt their rotation.

Because the Nuggets were willing to leave non-shooters open, the Celtics tried their double-big lineup again. If the opponent isn’t going to respect your shooters, you might as well play big. And the idea makes sense.

Because the Celtics played with two bigs and the non-shooter of the two is Neemias Queta, Vucevic was matched up with a smaller player. Therefore, it was easier for him to get a mismatch in the post. However, it was also easier for Jokic to come help from behind because of Queta’s presence in the paint.

To make this work on offense, I think the Celtics need to work on high-low offense with more movement from the off-ball players around the two centers. Defensively, it brought more rebounding stability and rim protection. The Celtics could target non-shooting threats like Christian Braun so the paint remained stacked.

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If the Celtics can build some offensive synergy between Queta and Vucevic, things could be really fun and bring a great balance against big teams like Denver.

Because Denver was so aggressive when it came to protecting the paint, the Celtics decided to start their actions from the half-court line to stretch the Denver defense.

Here, a zoom action for Derrick White starts from half court, with Sam Hauser screening at the logo and Queta handing off at the three-point line. Because of that space and the distance of the screen, Jones has more difficulty containing White. This created a little bit of chaos in the defense and worked pretty well.

Yet, starting from deep isn’t enough, and using screens correctly remains one of the most important parts of off-ball actions. Here, look how easy it is for the Denver Nuggets defenders to stay connected to their matchup despite the various screens.

The idea was great, the execution not so much. Yet, it gives some perspective on how the Celtics offense can adapt when the spacing is missing.

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#7 – More volume for White?

Looking at the stats from cleaningtheglass.com, I’m left with a couple of questions.

First, why didn’t White have more opportunities with the shot? He was really efficient with 1.25 points per shot attempt, created chaos with his speed and passing, and yet his usage was pretty average.

In the meantime, Jaylen Brown’s usage was once again close to 40% despite really low efficiency. When the defense shrinks the space like last night, I would like to see more possessions for White to unlock Jaylen Brown off-ball.

Against such a smart defense, isolation and drives in a crowded paint won’t work as much as usual, and the Celtics need to readjust how JB plays against elite teams to make sure to maximize him next to a great connector like Derrick White. The former Colorado guard scored 18 points in the second quarter but couldn’t get anything going after that.

#8 – More minutes for Hauser?

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A second question I would have asked is why Sam Hauser didn’t get more minutes. As we saw earlier, the Nuggets were willing to leave a shooter open to protect the paint – even if that shooter was Sam Hauser.

So, when Sam was the guy next to the ball on the pick-and-roll, it created great things for the Celtics because the help defender couldn’t fully commit. And if he did, the Celtics could swing the ball to the wing.

Even if he didn’t make all the shots, the added value in spacing was so crucial that it was vital for the Celtics to keep him on the court to have the best chance on offense.

#9 – Be patient with Vucevic

It took seven games for someone to raise the question – let’s be patient. And also let’s take a step back and remember that Vucevic isn’t the Celtics’ savior. He never has been an efficient scorer, never been a great interior defender. But he is a smart player with great passing for a 7-footer.

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If you are expecting Nikola Vucevic to reach Kristaps Porzingis’ numbers in rim protection and scoring efficiency, well, be prepared to wait for a while because it never was the case. However, Vucevic can bring a push in the possession battle while providing spacing and great secondary passing once he gets more comfortable in the Celtics offense.

Let’s be nice, let’s be patient, this roster isn’t changing anytime soon.

#10 – Out of gas, out of air

Three games in four days, the last one 5280 feet above sea level, and the Celtics were out of gas and out of air.

This month, they played six games on the road, a lot of time away from home. March should be far more comfortable with nine games at TD Garden.

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Might be the perfect timing for Jayson Tatum to come back (and for me to book a ticket from France to cover some games from the ground).”



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Nuggets get a morale boost from season-best defensive effort: ‘When we play like that, we’re the best in the league’

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Nuggets get a morale boost from season-best defensive effort: ‘When we play like that, we’re the best in the league’


Abandoned by their reliable offense, infiltrated in their home by Boston sports fans as they so often are, the Nuggets had to bounce back the hard way.

With defense. Rebounding. Discipline, elbow grease, etc.

“Usually, maybe we win with the offense,” Nikola Jokic said, “but today we won with the defense.”

And when that happens, it’s a point of pride. The Nuggets know they can score. They’re not known for their rock fights. They did what they had to do Wednesday for a rewarding 103-84 victory over the Celtics, who came into Ball Arena with nine wins in their last 10 games. Despite shooting 42% from the field and 35% from the 3-point line, Denver kept an opponent out of triple digits for only the third time this season. Boston’s 84 points were the fewest the Nuggets have allowed.

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“We have gotten to this point with our win total because of our offense. That’s the bottom line,” coach David Adelman said, putting a finer point on Jokic’s comment. “But for us to do anything uniquely special this season, our defense has to come along.”

The Nuggets (37-22) outscored their visitors 42-28 in the paint, 23-9 on second-chance points and 14-6 on fast breaks. Nikola Jokic led them with 30 strenuous points, 12 rebounds and six assists. Tim Hardaway Jr. added 14 off the bench. The heroes were Bruce Brown for his relentless ball pressure, Spencer Jones for his pesky physicality and Cam Johnson for his heady defensive impact as much as Jokic for his typical box score theatrics.

Torched by the Warriors from 3-point range last Sunday, Denver limited the trigger-happy Celtics to a 12-for-43 clip downtown. Nikola Vucevic — another veteran pick-and-pop big man like Golden State’s Al Horford — didn’t knock down a 3-pointer all night.

“Took away the corners,” Adelman said. “Made them drive it back into the defense. The full rotation to Vucevic was really good. Just (happy with) some things that I thought in Golden State, we talked about doing and didn’t do well enough.”

Boston’s primary scorer was neutralized as well. Jaylen Brown has elevated his offense to — in the opinion of LeBron James, at least — an MVP level this season with running mate Jayson Tatum rehabbing from a torn Achilles tendon. Brown was held to 23 points on 21 field goal attempts in Denver, committing four turnovers against higher pickup points than Denver usually applies. Bruce Brown grilled him the most, pick-pocketing the star wing a handful of times.

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“He’s a game-breaker,” said Julian Strawther, who scored 12 points in another start. “Get a couple steals. Get the crowd engaged. Get everybody going. Once he does it, everybody on the team wants to get involved, too.”

“The whole film session with Golden State was, they were starting their offense wherever the hell they wanted to start it,” Adelman said. “It was guys dribbling to the elbow without being touched into dribble handoffs. It just wasn’t good enough. … In our league right now, that’s the area where you can get physical. You have to toe the line a little bit. And then obviously discipline comes into play when they attack the basket.”

Before Wednesday, the Nuggets had held 17 of their opponents to fewer than 110 points. Only four of those teams have winning records, including Toronto (the NBA’s 18th-ranked offense) and Golden State (14th).

This was perhaps their most worthy defensive performance of the year against a serious team. Boston touts the second-best offensive rating in the league, behind Denver’s. It was the second night of a back-to-back for the Celtics after they played Tuesday in Phoenix, but Jaylen Brown had sat that game out.

“In the third quarter, we fouled them four times in two minutes, and then we kind of set the tone for the rest of the game,” said Jokic, whose most recent crusade has been for the Nuggets to foul more often.

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“When we play like that,” Bruce Brown said, “we’re the best in the league.”

Jamal Murray was feeling under the weather when he arrived for work Wednesday, but he decided to try playing through it. He didn’t last long. After logging eight minutes, he went to the locker room and didn’t return. The Nuggets officially ruled him out at halftime, after attempting to treat the point guard with “all the medication,” according to Adelman.

“All kinds of bodily things were happening,” the first-year head coach said.

Jalen Pickett was out due to right knee soreness. The availability of both point guards is unknown going into Friday’s showdown in Oklahoma City.

In the meantime, Adelman had to get creative, extending his rotation to account for Murray’s illness and Jones’ foul trouble after he picked up his third in nine minutes. Zeke Nnaji filled in for a stint at power forward. KJ Simpson played his first meaningful minutes since joining the team on a two-way contract last week. His fast-break flush late in the third quarter capped an 11-0 Nuggets run and sent them to the fourth with a 77-67 lead, the first double-digit margin of the night.

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