California
Six earthquakes hit Southern California in one week. Does that mean ‘The Big One’ is coming?
In recent days, Southern California has experienced one earthquake after another. A 3.6 in Ojai on May 31. Two of a similar magnitude under the East Los Angeles area of El Sereno. Another three quakes near Newport Beach and Costa Mesa.
While these quakes were far weaker than historic temblors like the 6.7 Northridge Earthquake of 1994, which caused an estimated $20bn in damage and killed over 57 people, do they herald the arrival of the so-called Big One in a state sitting on multiple, highly active faultlines?
There’s the notorious 800-mile-long San Andreas, which runs from near the Mexico border, east past Los Angeles, then up the coast north of Sacramento.
Major quakes occur along the fault every 180 years or so, and the San Andreas hasn’t had a majorly powerful one since 1906. The US Geological Survey estimates it has a 60 percent chance of causing a magnitude 6.7 or greater in the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years.
Of even greater concern is the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which runs from Northern California to British Columbia, Canada. It’s overdue for an even larger quake compared with historical averages.
So, are the recent earthquakes an ominous omen of something larger, or business as usual in a state with an estimated 35 quakes a day?
The El Sereno quakes, for example, happened just under the Puente Hills thrust fault, which runs beneath downtown Los Angeles and Orange County. The 10-mile deep fault angles like a ramp and gets closest to the surface near the LA campus of the University of Southern California. If a quake along this fault hits the loose earth of the Los Angeles Basin, it could amplify the intensity of an earthquake by up to ten times compared to areas located on bedrock.
The Newport Beach-Costa Mesa temblors, meanwhile, took place near the Compton thrust fault, which could raise the LA River by up to 5 feet in a strong quake, wreaking havoc on city sewer systems. There have been six quakes above magnitude 7 along the fault in the last 12,000 years, according to geologists.
Scientists argue that instead of focusing solely on the largest quakes by magnitude, the key consideration is how much damage they could do to densely settled areas. The San Andreas, despite its famous reputation, runs for large sections through sparesly populated desert.
“In some respects, the ‘big one’ in terms of damages and deaths would be ones running through town rather than one that’s a long distance away,” Dr. Pat Abbott, professor of geology emeritus at San Diego State University, told KSWB last year. “There’s the size of the earthquake, and then also where you are situated compared to where the fault’s moving.”
He pointed to major quakes like the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas earthquakes, as well 1994’s Northridge earthquake, all of which were under the 8.0 magnitude contemplated in “Big One” scenarios but which still caused “horrendous” damage.
“Unfortunately, earthquake prediction remains an extremely challenging endeavor,” according to the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services website. “While scientists can monitor fault lines and detect patterns of seismic activity, they cannot predict exact earthquakes reliably.”
Instead, scientists deal more in the realm of long-term probability, which can inform what high-risk areas can do to prepare for the day when the hard-to-predict prospect of a major quake arrives.
For instance, the USGS estimates that there’s a 72 per cent chance a 6.7 or greater magnitude quake will hit the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years.
Finding a greater level of precise prediction is the “holy grail” of earthquake science, University of Washington seismologist Harold Tobin wrote last year.
“Science has not yet found a way to make actionable earthquake predictions,” he wrote. “A useful prediction would specify a time, a place and a magnitude – and all of these would need to be fairly specific, with enough advance notice to be worthwhile.”
In the meantime, until that magic predictor code is unlocked, governments can push for preparedness measures like digital alert systems, practice drills, and building retrofits, while individual citizens are advised to have emergency kits in place and drop to their knees, cover their head and neck, and hold onto something stable when a quake begins.
A California man was arrested on suspicion of committing lewd acts and exploiting minors through online platforms.
The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office identified the suspect as Edward “Eddie” Alessandro Zarate, 20, of Santa Maria.
On May 28, authorities began investigating Zarate over allegations that he was communicating with underage girls online and exchanging sexually explicit material with them.
Detectives later learned that Zarate allegedly communicated with minor victims through mobile phone apps such as Whipd, Purp, Wizz and Snapchat, along with exchanging text messages.
Zarate’s profiles appeared to portray him as a juvenile.
“Once he established communication with minors, he would often encourage them to move conversations off the platform and continue communicating via text message,” the sheriff’s department said. “During these conversations, Zarate would disclose his true age and identity.”
So far, authorities are aware of two female juveniles who have met with Zarate in person and reportedly engaged in lewd acts.
He is accused of communicating with minors in multiple states including California, Florida and Illinois. In California alone, detectives believe Zarate contacted minors from Los Angeles, Oxnard, Santa Barbara, San Diego, Santa Maria, Lompoc, Paso Robles, Nipomo, Arroyo Grande and San Francisco.
“Based on the scope of the investigation, detectives believe there may be additional survivors who have not yet been identified,” authorities said.
On June 10, Zarate was arrested and booked on multiple felony charges including oral copulation with a person under 18 years of age, unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor, sending harmful matter to a minor, and two counts of possession of obscene material depicting a minor.
Anyone who may be a victim, has communicated with Zarate online or through text or has information on the case is asked to call Sheriff’s Detectives at 805-681-4150. Anonymous tips can be provided to the SBSD’s tipline at 805-681-4171 or online at SBSheriff.org.
Top universities reject Trump’s ‘compact’ over academic freedom
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Brown University, University of Pennsylvania, and University of Southern California rejected Trump’s “compact.”
To the surprise of perhaps no Californians, several California universities appeared in the top rankings of the world’s best universities in the latest U.S. News and World Report rankings released on June 16.
Of the more than 2,250 worldwide research institutions that U.S. News & World Report evaluated for this list, six California universities ranked in the top 50 globally, with an even split among Northern and Southern California institutions.
The 2026 list includes universities from more than 100 countries, with the following countries receiving the most schools in the overall rankings:
- China: 409
- United States: 275
- India: 123
- United Kingdom: 93
- Japan: 86
Did your California alma mater appear among the top global universities?
U.S. News and World Report methodology
When determining a university’s placement on the list, U.S. News & World Report considered factors more relevant to research-oriented institutions than to undergraduate-focused metrics like bachelor’s degree graduation rates.
It focused on aspects like academic institutions’ research and reputation, number of publications, the quality of publications and citations. It considers other factors, including location, campus culture, the strength of particular programs, and cost, which are also very important.
“For students seeking universities with strong academic excellence and global recognition, the Best Global Universities rankings offer an essential comparative resource,” said LaMont Jones, Ed.D., managing editor for Education at U.S. News.
“Our methodology focuses on a school’s research mission and scholarly impact, helping students identify institutions that are truly at the forefront of global knowledge creation.”
Out of the top 10 global universities, two California institutions made the list:
- Harvard University
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
- Stanford University
- University of Oxford
- University of Cambridge
- Tsinghua University
- University of California Berkeley
- Yale University
- University College London
- Columbia University
How did California colleges rank in U.S. News and World Report’s Best Global Universities 2026 list?
Outside of the top 10 universities, California saw a handful of other institutions rank highly on U.S. News & World Report list.
Notably, the University of California – Los Angeles just missed the top 10 list, ultimately ranking as the 11th-best global university and the second-best public institution on the list. It was beaten out as the best public institution by its academic counterpart, the University of California, Berkeley, which was ranked the 7th-best global university.
Additionally, a number of University of California schools made the top of the list, ultimately reaffirming the quality of the institutions’ public campuses across the state.
“Research from the University of California is vital to work that benefits all Americans, from breakthroughs in the treatment of Parkinson’s to the science behind previously unimagined successes in fighting cancer and the development of quantum computers that will enable the critical advances of the 21st century,” the University of California said in a press release about its rankings.
Here’s the list of California universities that made the top 100 list:
- 3. Stanford University
- 7. University of California Berkeley
- 11. University of California – Los Angeles
- 22. University of California – San Francisco
- 23. (Tied) California Institute of Technology
- 23. (Tied) University of California – San Diego
- 74. University of Southern California
- 95. University of California – Davis
- 99. University of California – Irvine
- 100. University of California – Santa Barbara
Noe Padilla is a Northern California Reporter for USA Today. Contact him at npadilla@usatodayco.com, follow him on X @1NoePadilla or on Bluesky @noepadilla.bsky.social. Sign up for the TODAY Californian newsletter or follow us on Facebook at TODAY Californian.
The most significant seismic event in California’s history – an earthquake of 7.9 magnitude – occurred in 1857 and ruptured about 225 miles on the San Andreas Fault. That earthquake, dubbed the last “Big One,” killed two people and produced shaking that lasted between one and three minutes.
Since then, California has exploded in population and been has been rattled by many major earthquakes. But Californians have also grown familiar with the existential dread of another “Big One” looming.
Researchers have long warned there will be another massive earthquake in Southern California. They just don’t know when.
A recent study says warning signs continue to grow in 2026. The San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems have reached the highest stress levels seen in the past 1,000 years, according to a study conducted at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.
The San Andreas fault runs throughout the state, passing through San Francisco and San Bernardino, while the San Jacinto fault is in Southern California and runs through Riverside, San Diego and Imperial Counties.
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Why the San Andreas Fault is so risky
Faults rupture on the San Andreas Fault approximately every 150 years, according to UCLA professor Jonathan Stewart, who studies earthquake engineering.
But it’s been over 300 years since the last “large rupture” occurred south of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, Stewart said. “As far we know it didn’t produce a large rupture since around 1690. To the present that’s a lot more than 150 years, so there’s a lot of build-up. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen immediately, it just means there is more stress built-up.”
When the earthquake happens, it is likely to cause a lot of damage. One major concern is the state’s water systems.
“An earthquake like this would rupture most, if not all of the major aqueducts bringing water into Southern California,” Stewart said. “Most people will not be in a collapsed structure after this earthquake, but everybody’s going to be affected by water problems.”
Study highlights longstanding risk
To investigate the probability of an earthquake occurring, researchers built a physics-based simulation and fed it the earthquake history from the region. By doing so, they were able to estimate how much stress has built up along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems.
The results suggest that catastrophe may be near.
“Right now, with stress at historically high levels across the region and more than 160 years elapsed since the last major rupture, the system is in a critically loaded state,” lead author Liliane Burkhard said.
Most importantly, the Cajon Pass, at the junction of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, could facilitate a joint rupture of the two faults. This scenario, according to the study, would probably be “significantly more damaging” than a single-fault event.
How is earthquake safety considered?
Seismic hazard assessments are critical for the safety of the millions of residents in California’s densely-populated and earthquake-prone areas.
Seismic Hazard maps show the relative hazard associated with earthquakes using information on past faults, the behavior of seismic waves and the near-surface conditions of specific locations, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Larger values indicate a stronger level of earthquake shaking. A peak ground velocity of 269 cm/sec would correspond to extreme shaking and heavy damage. For reference, the largest ground velocity recorded in Taiwan’s 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake reached 318 cm/sec and had a magnitude of 6.7.
That earthquake killed more than 2,000 people and incurred approximately $14 billion in damage.
How do the fault lines rupture?
The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults are strike-slip faults, which typically cause horizontal displacement. Both faults comprise the geologic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate.
If a major earthquake occurs on the San Andreas fault, it is likely to produce surface rupture, which occurs when a fault breaks through to the surface. Most earthquakes, however, do not produce surface rupture, according to USGS.
In a major rupture, strong shaking could cause severe damage near the fault and in areas built on soft or water-saturated soils, which can amplify shaking. Rupture can directly offset roads, buildings, and other structures that span the fault trace.
Although the study helps explain the risk associated with the California fault lines, Burkhard emphasized that it shouldn’t serve as a forecast.
“This is not a prediction of when an earthquake will happen,” Burkhard said. “However, studies like this are important contributions to national and global earthquake hazard research in that we are using rigorous, quantitative science to better understand the risk facing millions of people.”
Contributing: Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK
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