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Republicans’ next target—California

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Republicans’ next target—California


After making gains in almost every state in the 2024 elections, Republicans are now setting their sights on a new battleground: California.

Why It Matters

California has historically been a heavily Democratic state, selecting a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. But recent polls have indicated the tide could be turning on the Democrats in the Golden State. It comes after the state shifted toward the GOP by 12 points in 2024 compared to 2020, with Donald Trump increasing his vote share in nearly every county in the state. The Republicans also flipped three seats in the state Legislature last year.

If the Democratic Party loses ground in California, it could reshape the state’s leadership as early as 2026, when the next governor will be elected and most of California’s state Legislature will be up for election.

People walk around the California State Capitol on August 5, 2024, in Sacramento.

Juliana Yamada/AP

What To Know

Amid the GOP’s recent success in the state, the California Republican Party is now seeking to capitalize on that momentum and break the Democratic supermajority.

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A supermajority means holding at least two-thirds of the seats in a legislative body. The Democrats currently hold 90 seats across California’s state Assembly and Senate, amounting to 75 percent of the 120 seats. That means that the Republicans need to pick up seven seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate to break the Democratic supermajority.

Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher of Yuba City told CalMatters that Republicans could target as many as eight Assembly districts in the Central Valley and Southern California to flip next year.

To do that, newly elected California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin said at a party convention in Sacramento last weekend that the party will be “going on the offense” and expanding efforts to convert voters in Democratic strongholds like Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area.

That will involve a stream of messaging that blames Democrats for violent crime, which data from California’s Department of Justice shows increased by 3.3 percent in 2023, as well as the cost-of-living crisis. The party will also seek to campaign on ballot initiatives where voters have at times been willing to side with Republicans, including raising criminal penalties for some drug and theft offenses.

But the most important part of the strategy will be disassociating the deep-blue state’s Republican Party from Trump. A recent poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) between February 4 and 11 among 1,589 respondents in the state showed that only one in three Californians approve of the president’s job performance. Among them, 84 percent of Republicans, 7 percent of Democrats and 28 percent of independent voters approve. But that still makes Trump less popular among Californians than any other president since before 2005.

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For GOP consultant Mike Madrid, it is important that California Republicans do not associate with Trump because doing so could be especially damaging amid economic uncertainty in the country, he told CalMatters. It comes after Trump this month proceeded with plans to impose additional tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, which some experts say could increase inflation.

Goldman Sachs previously estimated that the tariffs could push inflation by 1 percent while squeezing U.S. company profits and provoking retaliatory measures from other countries. Canada, for example, has announced billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, inflation is already affecting the economy, as a Labor Department report for January saw the largest consumer price increase in nearly 18 months.

Recent polls have shown that Trump’s handling of the economy is a key factor in his declining popularity on a national level. And that has also been apparent in California. PPIC’s recent poll showed that when respondents were asked if they thought during the next 12 months the United States will have good times financially or bad times, only 27 percent said good times, while 72 percent said they think the U.S. will see bad times.

Nonetheless, outgoing California Republican Party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson told CalMatters that it is important the party is able to motivate Trump supporters if they want to break the Democratic supermajority.

“We need to make sure we are motivating those Trump voters and I don’t know that anyone has found that secret sauce yet,” she said. “We welcome all voices. We’re focused on California and Californians….People are desperately looking for options.”

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It comes as polls have indicated that Californians may be turning on the Democratic Party. According to polling by Capitol Weekly, published on February 6, when asked “Do you think the Democratic Party has shown an ability to present an effective case against the Trump administration?” only 11 percent said yes, with 79 percent of voters saying that the party has not shown this ability. Among Democrats, the numbers didn’t improve much—with 19 percent expressing confidence in their party, and 68 percent saying “no.” The poll surveyed 1,198 voters in California.

Voters were also asked to give one word to describe the Democratic Party, and the responses were bleak. The most common words voters chose were “lost,” “ineffective” and “weak.” Other words included “toothless,” “ineffectual” and “floundering.” Some voters were more positive, describing the party as “determined,” “optimistic” and “caring.”

Meanwhile, Republican registration in California has ticked back up slightly to 25 percent of registered voters in 2024 but is still far behind the 46 percent who support the Democratic Party. About 22 percent are registered as independents, according to the PPIC.

As California Republicans head into a future under Trump, they are optimistic about their prospects.

“Change is coming to California. It’s time to end the Democrats’ one-party rule and make California great again,” Rankin told delegates after winning the leadership post.

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What People Are Saying

California Republican Party Chair Corrin Rankin: “Change is coming to California. It’s time to end the Democrats’ one-party rule and make California great again. We’re going on the offense. We need to expand the battlefield and to take the fight to every corner of our state.”

What Happens Next

The next California State Legislature elections will be held on November 3, 2026, during the midterms. All 80 seats in the California State Assembly (which has two-year terms) will be up for election. And 20 of the 40 seats in the California State Senate (which has four-year terms) will also be contested, as Senate seats are staggered with half up for election every two years.



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California may take weeks to finalize primary results. ‘This is normal’

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California may take weeks to finalize primary results. ‘This is normal’


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Although results from California’s primary election began rolling in on Tuesday, June 2, it could take days or even weeks before the final counts are certified. 

“This is normal … We have a process that by law ensures both voting rights and the integrity of elections, so I would call on all Californians to be patient,” Secretary of State Shirley N. Weber said in a June 2 news release.

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The Golden State’s lengthy vote-counting process has “become a national narrative about California elections,” according to Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.

“In California, it takes a long time to certify votes, to verify the signatures, to then count the ballots; all of that process takes a while,” Kousser said in an interview last week. “It may take a while for us to learn who the top candidates who emerge are.”

Here are some factors behind California’s lengthy vote-counting process. 

Mail-in ballots come with added verification step 

With each mail-in ballot cast, elections officials must compare the signature on a returned vote-by-mail envelope to the voter’s signature on their voter registration card. Various factors go into determining whether the signatures match, including the slant of the signature, whether it is printed or written in cursive, and the size, proportions, or scale. 

Vote-by-mail ballots were Californians’ preferred voting method in both the 2024 primary and general elections, with drop-off locations — such as ballot drop boxes and voting centers — the most popular way to return mail-in ballots. 

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During California’s 2024 primary, more than 7.7 million votes were cast statewide, and 90 percent of those were mail-in ballots. This means election officials had to verify the signatures on more than 6.8 million ballots before they could be counted. For the November 2024 general election, 80% of cast ballots, or about 13 million, were vote-by-mail. 

Reviewing conditional voter and provisional ballots 

California also allows for same-day voter registration, also known as conditional voter registration. Voters who need to register, or re-register, within 14 days of an election can do so at their county elections office, polling place, or vote center. These ballots will be processed and counted after the county elections office has completed the voter registration process. 

In addition to conditional voter ballots, there are provisional ballots that must be verified before they are counted. Voters cast provisional ballots for a wide array of reasons, including if their name does not appear at a polling place or if they’ve made a mistake on their ballot. After a voter casts a provisional ballot, it will not be counted until election officials have confirmed that the voter is registered to vote in that county and has not already voted in that election. 

Vote-by-mail ballots can be sent on Election Day 

Though state officials recommend voters mail their ballots sooner rather than later, state law allows vote-by-mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive within a specified window afterward, thereby extending the tallying process. 

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For the primary, ballots needed to be postmarked on or before June 2 and received by county elections office no later than June 10.  

California is, well, big 

California is the most populous state in the nation. And, as of May 18, a record total of 23,155,447 Californians were registered to vote. 

While not all registered voters are expected to have voted, county election officials estimate that more than 5 million ballots were cast statewide. 

When to expect final results 

Under state law, county elections officials are required to report the results for most ballots by June 15, or 13 days after the election, according to Weber. However, some ballots can take counties up to 30 days to count every ballot and then conduct a post-election audit. 

State law requires county elections officials to report final official results to state officials July 3. State officials then have until July 10 to certify the results of the election.

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California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues

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California’s race for governor and other key primaries remain unsettled as vote count continues


California’s crowded, protracted gubernatorial primary is going to take a little more time to settle.

The race remained too early to call Wednesday morning with 50% of the expected vote counted, according to NBC News’ Decision Desk. Three main candidates — former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, and two Democrats, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer — are competing for two spots in the general election, with the candidate in fourth place, Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, running well behind.

Hilton had 27% support in the all-party primary with about half of votes still left to count, while Becerra had 26% and Steyer had 20%. Bianco was the only other candidate in double digits, at 11%.

In California, all candidates run on the same primary ballot in the primary and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election.

It’s difficult to say when it will be clear which two candidates advance to the November general election, however, due to the state’s protracted vote counting.

And with millions of ballots left to count, other key races in California remain uncalled as well, including the second runoff spot to face Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass one on one in November, several House races that could help determine the majority next year, and more.

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In the governor’s race, all three candidates rallied supporters around the state as the evening drew on.

“We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good,” Hilton told allies. “It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction, a fresh start for our state, which is long overdue.”

But while Hilton was narrowly in first place when he spoke, Democratic candidates were capturing the majority of the votes.

Becerra looked back at his own “underdog story,” from his immigrant relatives to his bid for governor, which took some time to catch fire.

“Almost immediately, he’s counted out, an afterthought, overlooked by many, outspent by a ton, even called along the way to drop out and save us the trouble,” Becerra recounted to his supporters. “Well, guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up.”

Steyer struck a hopeful note in his election night speech despite a deficit in the vote count.

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“It might take some time to figure out where this is going, we’re going to wait till every ballot is counted, we’re going to give democracy a time to work, and we know we finished really strong,” Steyer said.

Major battleground districts

GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district has been one of Democrats’ top targets for years, but two Democrats are locked in a close race for the second spot in the November general election against the incumbent.

School board member Randy Villegas, who won support from national progressives, has a slight lead over state legislator Jasmeet Bains, 30% to 26%, with less than half of the expected vote tallied in the 22nd District. Valadao is comfortably in first place.

And in Northern California’s 6th District, Rep. Kevin Kiley — who was elected as a Republican and switched to become an independent this election cycle, as he runs in another newly redrawn district — is bunched up in a tight race that includes Democrat Richard Pan, a former state legislator, and Republican Michael Stansfield. Currently, Stansfield is running ahead of Pan; they spent much of Tuesday night and Wednesday morning trading the lead, which could have significant general election implications.

Meanwhile, outside California, Democrats think they might be able to challenge for one of Montana’s red-tinted congressional districts this fall, after Rep. Ryan Zinke decided to retire. But less than 2 percentage points separate Democrats Sam Forstag and Ryan Busse with more than 85% of the expected vote tallied in their primary in Montana’s 1st District.

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Read more about Tuesday’s House primaries here.

A safe seat battle to watch

Plenty of other House districts in California — and a few elsewhere — still have unsettled primaries, but one attracted particular attention due to how nasty the campaign got.

In Southern California, where two Republican incumbents are facing off in one district due to redistricting, Rep. Ken Calvert has advanced to the general election, but Rep. Young Kim is still battling for the second spot. She leads Democrat Esther Kim-Varet in the race for second, 22% to 16%, with about half of the vote in.

Who will face Bass in Los Angeles?

While Bass is projected to advance to a November runoff in Los Angeles, it’s not yet clear whether she’ll face Republican Spencer Pratt or Democrat Nithya Raman.

Bass has about 37% of the vote to 29% for Pratt and 21% for Raman so far, with approximately half of the expected vote tallied.

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Speaking to supporters on election night, Raman, a member of the Los Angeles City Council, said that “tonight may not give us a final answer on this race.”

“Many thousands of votes will be counted in the days ahead, and we may not get an answer we like, but regardless of what happens next, nobody, nobody can take away what all of us have built together,” she continued.

Pratt, meanwhile, was looking ahead to a potential matchup with Bass when he spoke to reporters.

“Now I have five months to get deep into every community that hasn’t heard my message to make them safe,” said Pratt, a former reality TV star. “So I’m actually very excited, because I felt very rushed. It’s a big city, and I was not able to talk to as many people as I look forward to talking to.”

Bass also projected optimism, telling her backers, “We got a lot more to go, but so far it’s looking good.”

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Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots

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Midterm primaries 2026 live: results and reaction after six states including California and Iowa cast ballots


Lucy Campbell

Millions of voters across the country are heading to the polls today in crucial primaries in a slew of key gubernatorial, Senate and House races.

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Here’s a quick rundown of what we’re watching:

California
Voters are casting ballots on who should lead the nation’s most populous state (and the world’s fourth largest economy), where there is no clear leader among candidates vying to advance in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic governor Gavin Newsom. The race for Los Angeles mayor is also on the ballot, along with a series of high-stakes US House contests in the state’s newly redrawn congressional districts – which are set to play an outsized and potentially decisive role in the battle for power in Washington in November’s midterm elections. My colleague Lauren Gambino has more:

Iowa
Per my colleague Chris Stein, with Trump’s approval ratings deep underwater, gas prices high and historical political trends favoring the party out of power, Democrats this year are considering a comeback in Iowa, putting the state at the center of their campaigns to win back control of both the US House and the Senate. That effort for a “once-in-a-generation” breakthrough in the GOP-dominated state is being led by pro-hunting Democrat Rob Sand, who is running for governor. Chris wrote about him below. Democrats also believe they have a shot at winning three of the state’s US House seats and a competitive chance at securing a US Senate seat, where the GOP frontrunner recently called Trump’s war on Iran a “political liability”.

New Jersey
One of this year’s most closely watched House midterms will take place in the battleground district currently represented by now-infamous Republican Tom Kean Jr, who has drawn public scrutiny and concern after missing more than 100 House votes due to an undisclosed illness. Voters are deciding which Democrat will run against him in November – and the seat is a must-win for the party. The frontrunner, veteran army trauma surgeon and political newcomer Adam Hamawy, has secured endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. My colleague Joseph Gedeon has more:

New Mexico
Contests in the state include primaries for congressional seats, a US Senate seat and a long list of statewide offices, but the governor’s race is the main event. Deb Haaland, who was Joe Biden’s interior secretary, is running for the Democratic nomination, which could put her on a historic path for Native American leaders.

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Montana
In Montana, a five-way Democratic fight is under way for the retiring Republican senator’s seat. Independent Seth Bodnar, former president of the University of Montana, is outraising them all at the moment but they’re refusing to step aside, Politico reports this morning.

South Dakota
The race is on for state governor, Sioux Falls mayor, a US Senate and House seat, a Republican primary for local lawmakers. The incumbent GOP governor Larry Rhoden faces three primary challengers in his first run for a full term. He stepped up into the role from the lieutenant governorship when the former governor, the since-ousted Kristi Noem, left to lead the Department of Homeland Security.

The Associated Press contributed reporting

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Key events

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Joseph Gedeon

On the day Donald Trump endorsed him as a tireless advocate for New Jersey’s seventh district, the representative Tom Kean Jr was, as he has been since early March, nowhere to be found.

Kean, a New Jersey Republican, was last seen when he cast a House floor vote on 5 March, and he is running unopposed in Tuesday’s Republican primary. The Democratic race in his district, meanwhile, has attracted multiple candidates and ample fundraising.

In late April, his office said he was dealing with a “personal medical issue” and would be back “very soon”. He told the New Jersey Globe last month he expected to return within “the next couple of weeks”. In the meantime, Kean’s social media accounts have continued posting regularly, with staff attending ribbon-cuttings and graduation ceremonies on his behalf.

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