Uncommon Knowledge
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Extreme snowfall will become less common in California by 2100, a new study found.
Scientists understand how a lack of snow or “snow drought” can affect a region, especially in the midst of a warming climate. However, before now, they did not understand the impact of unusually high levels of snow. And this is becoming more important, as California has just emerged from its second winter of high snowfall.
A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences used the 2023 winter as a case study to learn more. Computational hydrologist Adrienne Marshall and colleagues from the Colorado School of Mines dubbed the term “snow deluges” to describe the phenomenon recently seen in California.
To reach their findings, they analyzed the unusual snow deluge across the Sierra Nevada mountains in 2023 to assess the impact of “high snow years.”
In 2023, California saw an extremely high amount of snow accumulation, with record snowpack levels. Observations showed the accumulations were a “once-in-54-years event,” with some areas reporting “once-in-320-years accumulations,” the study reported.
By looking at climate projections, scientists found that years like these with the so-called “snow deluges” are set to decline by 58 percent by the end of this century. Years with median levels of snowfall are also estimated to decline by 73 percent, they reported.
“California’s massive snow year of 2023 was record-breaking at 42 percent of snow monitoring sites,” Marshall told Newsweek. “Climate models indicate that in warmer future climates, our biggest snow years will be smaller than our biggest snow years now. Another way of putting this is that a snow deluge like we saw in 2023 would be much more rare in a warmer climate like that we might expect later in the 21st century.”
Similar patterns will also be seen across the wider Western U.S., the study reports.
The findings “underscore the significance of uncovering the impact of climate change on the dynamics of snow deluges and snow droughts in mountainous regions,” the study reports.
“These findings align with a bigger scientific picture that shows declining average snowpack and more frequent snow droughts in California and throughout the West,” Marshall said. “Our new findings suggest that we shouldn’t count on big snow years like the one we had last year to save us in warmer climates.
“This is important because snow acts as a natural reservoir in the mountains that stores water until the late spring and summer when we need it most. Our best opportunities to avoid the worst consequences of this snow loss lie in reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and finding ways to adapt to adapt to changing snow and water availability.”
The study notes that snow deluges can be “both destructive and beneficial” meaning better understanding of the phenomenon can improve management of “snow-dependent ecosystems and economies.”
The 2023 snow deluge in California, in many ways, could be seen as good thing. Before it occurred, the state had been suffering from prolonged drought conditions. As a result, there was a severe lack of snowpack in the surrounding mountains, meaning less water was feeding the state’s reservoirs.
The large snow build-up, however, meant that come spring, it melted into rivers and reservoirs, saving the state from a water crisis. In fact, drought conditions in the state officially ended.
However, the heavy snowfall indicates that climate change is worsening, as weather patterns become more unpredictable and extreme. While the drought has ended for now, climate change could cause another prolonged dry period in the future.
“Snow is important for both ecosystems and water resources, and there’s a lot still to learn about how our biggest snow years—or the loss of them—impact these systems,” Marshall said. “The present study focuses on annual-scale snow deluges, but the largest individual snowfall events could change in different ways.
“We focused on a moderate warming scenario in California and the Western U.S., but it would also be helpful to learn more about how different climate scenarios could affect snow deluges in other parts of the world.”
Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about California snowfall? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
The U.S. Forest Service has issued a warning regarding an increase in rattlesnake sightings in Southern California, especially after two deadly bites were reported in the last few weeks.
In a social media post, the USFS San Bernardino National Forest rangers reminded hikers and outdoor enthusiasts to be wary while exploring nature due to the increased temperatures and arrival of spring weather.
“As temperatures rise, rattlesnakes become more active in the forest,” the USFS’s post said. ” Stay alert, watch where you step and keep pets close.”
Since the beginning of the year, hikers have already reported rattlesnake encounters near a Moreno Valley hiking trail in Riverside County, where someone was bitten and required hospitalization.
There have been deadly incidents reported in both Orange County, where a man was bitten while mountain biking in Irvine, and Ventura County, where a 46-year-old woman died from “rattlesnake venom toxicity in an accidental manner.”
“If you encounter a rattlesnake, give it plenty of space and calmly move away,” the social media post said. “Never attempt to touch or disturb wildlife.”
USFS officials credited the increase in encounters to elevated temperatures and abnormally sunny conditions as opposed to the typical winter weather that Southern California sees.
They said that snakes can use their full length to strike, sometimes equating to more than five feet.
Officials advised anyone bitten by a rattlesnake to:
They also urged people to avoid using a tourniquet, slashing at the wound with a knife, sucking out the venom, using ice or immersing the wound in water, drinking alcohol as a painkiller or drinking caffeinated beverages.
Officials warned that people should not wait for symptoms of a bite to appear before seeking medical attention. However, they provided a list of different signs that someone may see if they are bitten by a rattler, including:
While Southern California is home to several species of rattlesnake, the most common are typically the Western Diamondback and Southern Pacific Rattlesnakes, according to the California Department of Fish and Wildlife.
Aside from their infamous rattle, rattlesnakes can be identified by their broad and diamond-shaped head. They usually have spotched markings that appaer separated by lighter colored stripes that become smaller and narrower towards the tail, which is tipped with a paper-like noise-producing rattle, USFS officials said.
While they typically hide during the cold winter months, snakes venture out during warm weather. They usually hide in shady spots during the hottest parts of the day and begin hunting either in the early morning or evening. Officials advised that rattlesnakes can swim as well.
In order to avoid rattlesnakes, USFS rangers said that people should not tease or harass any wildlife, keep a distance of at least six feet if a rattler is spotted, stay on trails and watch where stepping or placing your hands when hiking or climbing over obstacles, avoid tall grass and piles of leaves and wear long pants and proper foot gear.
How Many More Records Could Fall This Week?
The most prolific March heat wave in at least 14 years has already smashed monthly records in almost 180 cities from the Southwest to the Plains and East, and will have staying power in the Southwest and Plains this week.
(MAP: Temperatures Right Now)
First, let’s recap the incredible records we’ve seen shattered so far. Then we’ll look and see how long this heat will last.
Before this heat wave, the hottest March temperature on record anywhere in the U.S. had been 108 degrees in Rio Grande City, Texas, on March 30, 1954, and on March 14, 1902.
But at least one location in the U.S. tied or exceeded that March national record four days in a row from March 18 through 21.
On March 20, four reporting stations in the lower deserts of southeast California and southwest Arizona hit 112 degrees, shown in the map below. You can’t make it up that one of these stations was near the town of Winterhaven.
These highs were only one degree shy of tying the April U.S. record high set at Death Valley, California, according to weather historian Christopher Burt. And that happened in late April — April 22, 2012 and April 24, 1946.

It also appears that the hottest March temperatures on record in 14 states were either tied or broken.
We touched on the California and Arizona records above (112 degrees) as national records, but among some other state records that appear to have been tied or set include:
The other states are shown on the map below.
For bigger state or national records like these, an ad hoc committee of meteorologists and climatologists is usually convened to examine the data and the reporting station before it becomes a new, official record.

Almost 180 locations with data since the 1960s or earlier have tied or set new March records from California to Pennsylvania to South Carolina during this heat wave.
Some of those records are shown in the map below from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
Phoenix only had one March day of triple digit heat on record prior to this heat wave. They hit the 100s seven days in a row from March 18-24, topping out at 105 degrees on March 20 and 21. Incredibly, that’s equal to their April monthly record, which was set almost a month later in the calendar on three dates ranging from April 20-29 in three past years.
Other major cities that tied or set new March records included San Francisco’s first March 90-degree high downtown, Las Vegas (97 degrees), Salt Lake City (84 degrees), Boise (83 degrees) and Denver (85 or 86 degrees for three straight days).
It wasn’t just a western heat wave.
March records were tied or set in Lubbock, Texas (98 degrees), Kansas City (93 degrees), Des Moines, Iowa (91 degrees), Nashville, Tennessee (89 degrees), Louisville, Kentucky (89 degrees), Indianapolis, Indiana (88 degrees), Columbus, Ohio (86 degrees), Pittsburgh (84 degrees), and Charleston, South Carolina (90 degrees).
Perhaps the most extraordinary record heat east of the Rockies happened in Nebraska on March 21.
Both Lincoln and Omaha not only demolished their March record, after reaching 97 degrees in Lincoln and 96 in Omaha, but it also tied their April record.
Many of these almost 180 cities tied or topped their previous March records multiple days in a row. Flagstaff, Arizona, reached or topped their previous March record of 73 degrees a staggering eight days in a row from St. Patrick’s Day through Tuesday. Las Vegas did that seven days in a row through Tuesday.
Several of these cities reached the 80s, 90s, or 100s for the first time in their recorded history.
Last weekend, parts of the Plains, were as much as 45 degrees warmer than average.
This is likely the most significant, long-lived March heat wave the nation has experienced since the March 2012 heat wave rewrote the record books in the central U.S. and Canada.

A sign warns hikers of trail closures due to extreme heat at Camelback Mountain on Thursday, March 19, 2026, in Phoenix.
(AP Photo/Rebecca Noble)
This heat wave isn’t over.
Another pulse of heat is surging into parts of the Plains and South this week, while continuing to bake the Southwest.
We’re expecting many dozen more daily record highs from California possibly as far east as parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Incredibly, some new March records could be set in a few areas, though last week’s heat set a much higher bar.
Some cities that could once again flirt with March record highs include Cheyenne, Denver and Amarillo. On Thursday, St. Louis could approach its March record (92 degrees) on Opening Day, no less, a record set 97 years ago.
(MORE: Heat Safety And Preparation)

How hot are we talking about?
Triple-digit highs: Parts of the Desert Southwest, including Phoenix, and the lower Colorado River Valley could again see triple digit heat through much of this week. A few of the hottest spots in western Texas, possibly southwest Oklahoma, could reach 100 degrees around Thursday.
90s: This searing heat will spread out from the Desert Southwest into the Plains from Nebraska to Texas to parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley through Thursday.
(MAPS: 10-Day US Forecast Highs, Lows)
Yes, there is finally relief in sight.
A late week cold front should remove the heat from the Plains and Rockies, however, above-average warmth will rebuild back into the Plains, South and Midwest this weekend.
The Southwest will have to be more patient. While daily record warmth is possible through the weekend, a pattern of somewhat cooler temperatures, even some rain and showers are possible in the West, including California and Arizona, next week.

Long-Range Temperature Outlook (NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center)
The reason for this heat wave in particular has to do with the ridge of high pressure, also known as a heat dome, that was parked over the West.
This heat dome is record-breaking for March, comparable in strength to ones we see in June. You can see the general position of the high pressure on the satellite loop below in the darker shading.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
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