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California is the key to control of Congress

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California is the key to control of Congress


California will decide whether or not Democrats retain their majority within the Home of Representatives. Typical knowledge holds that the result of the midterm elections is a fait accompli through which Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will give up her gavel to fellow Californian Republican Chief Kevin McCarthy, however the precise end result is way much less foreordained, and the Golden State may have a giant say through which Californian presides over the chamber in January 2023. 

The explanation so many consider that Democrats are doomed to lose energy is the historic development through which the celebration that controls the White Home usually loses seats in midterm elections. California is on the leading edge, nonetheless, of a countervailing nationwide development — the nation’s demographic revolution — and that development is poised to scramble the midterm electoral calculus.

Republicans have to oust 4 Democratic incumbents this fall to be able to seize management of the Home. California adjustments the maths — as a result of it has 5 Republican incumbents in racially various districts the place Democrats have a wonderful alternative to win. By concentrating on and flipping these seats, Democrats might put the elusive prize of energy additional out of Republican attain and require Republicans to win greater than twice as many seats throughout the remainder of the nation.

An enormous a part of the rationale that pundits underestimate the importance of the California contests is that they fail to issue within the implications of the demographic revolution. It’s a easy statistical proven fact that years of exit polling information affirm the fact that three-quarters of individuals of colour nationally persistently vote Democratic (a truth which isn’t stunning when the opposing political celebration’s energy is based on stoking white racial resentment). In California, the vast majority of eligible voters — 55 % — are folks of colour, and Biden acquired 78 % of their votes.

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Not one of the main political analysts, nonetheless, incorporate racial realities into their assessments and predictions. The race-neutral method of Cook dinner Political Report, for instance, has resulted within the willpower that simply two California Republican-held seats are toss-ups (out of seven nationally), whereas in addition they put two Democratic Golden State seats in that class (out of 26 nationally).

I’ve spent the previous a number of months working with a proficient staff of knowledge scientists to plot a rating system, the New Majority Index (NMI), that deepens the information pool by additionally analyzing the racial composition of a district and the voter turnout patterns by racial group. The NMI exhibits a unique image that’s rather more promising for Democratic prospects — in the event that they take a sensible and race-conscious method. When range information is included, it exhibits that 5 Republican-held seats might actually be flipped this November if voter turnout is maximized.

Given the racial range of California, success in its electoral contests requires important cultural competence and a deep understanding of the priorities and pursuits of the respective teams of colour that comprise the state’s inhabitants. In two of the weak Republican seats, Asian Individuals will play pivotal roles. Orange County, California — the political launching pad for Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan — was lengthy a Republican stronghold when it was a majority white. However — depictions in fashionable tv exhibits apart — whites are actually a definite minority, simply 38 %, of the county’s inhabitants. In California as a complete, 76 % of Asians backed Biden, however in two congressional races, Calif.-40 and Calif.-45, Asian American voter turnout was decrease than that of whites. Addressing that racial voter turnout hole might be key to Democrats capturing these two seats.

Notably, Republicans have proven better consciousness of racial dynamics and acted on that data by backing a Vietnamese lady, now-Congresswoman Younger Kim (R-Calif.), as their standard-bearer within the area.

Within the different three Republican-held aggressive seats, it’s the Latino vote that can play kingmaker. Latinos forged 75 % of their votes for Biden, however in these seats, the racial voter turnout hole is kind of pronounced, with whites voting at the next fee by a median of 11 %. That’s tens of 1000’s of potential Latino votes not coming into play in every of the aggressive seats, two of which have been determined by lower than 1 % in 2020. This racial vote hole factors the trail to energy for Democrats if they may open their eyes and have a look at the information.

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Though the potential is clear, like a backyard that might yield bountiful fruit, it requires the deployment of great time, power and assets to get the backyard to blossom. Sadly, too few within the Democratic institution perceive the maths or map to flipping the Home. The usual Democratic modus operandi is to craft and broadcast advertisements that proceed from the premise that almost all voters have fickle political allegiances which are inclined to commercials extolling the virtues of President Biden and the Democrats. Home Majority PAC has introduced plans to spend $121 million, however nearly all of its cash is concentrated on operating tv advertisements centered on attempting to battle for the love of the largely white cluster of voters seen as “swing voters.”

Basically, good spending means transferring thousands and thousands of {dollars} to the organizations and leaders with sturdy observe information of transferring voters of colour to the polls.

The historical past of political races involving Republican Rep. David Valadao, who represents the state’s closely Latino Central Valley, is instructive. In 2018, progressive donors moved a whole bunch of 1000’s of {dollars} to Communities for a New California (CNC), a corporation with roots within the state’s vaunted farmworker motion, and CNC employed groups of community-based canvassers to knock on doorways and make telephone calls to 40,000 voters, most of whom have been Latino. Because of this, Valadao was ousted, by a margin of 862 votes. Two years later, the urgency had dissipated, the progressive investments dried up, and Valadao was in a position to recapture the seat, profitable by lower than 1 %. This 12 months, he’s operating in a district that’s 59 % Latino and going through a Latino opponent, Rudy Salas.

The excellent news for progressives is that California has a strong civic engagement infrastructure throughout the state with sturdy electoral organizations within the counties the place the weak Republican members are — Orange County, San Bernardino, the Central Valley and even Los Angeles. Along with CNC, organizations equivalent to OC Motion, IE United, CHIRLA Motion Fund have deep ties, lengthy histories and stable observe information of serving to voters of colour overcome the myriad obstacles to voting.

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If the celebration and the nation’s Democratic donors spend money on bringing that infrastructure to scale and celebration leaders unapologetically champion their help for and protection of multi-racial democracy, they’ll flip the seats in California that can allow the celebration to maintain management of Congress. 

Steve Phillips is the host of Democracy in Colour with Steve Phillips, a color-conscious podcast about politics. He’s writer of the New York Instances bestseller “Brown Is the New White.” His new e-book, “How We Win the Civil Conflict,” is due out in October.



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STEVE HILTON: Five things California Democrats still don't get

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STEVE HILTON: Five things California Democrats still don't get


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Along with most other Democratic politicians in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom still doesn’t seem to understand what happened in the 2024 election.

For years, Newsom, along with California cronies like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and, of course, Vice President Kamala Harris, bragged about their state being a “model for the nation.”

In one sense–not the one they intended, of course–that’s true. California became a model of what not to do.

CALIFORNIA VOTERS NARROWLY REJECT $18 MINIMUM WAGE; FIRST SUCH NO-VOTE NATIONWIDE SINCE 1996

The terrible combination of elitism and extremism that has defined Democratic policymaking in my home state for at least the last decade has delivered failure on every front.

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Despite having the highest taxes in the nation, despite the state’s budget nearly doubling in the last ten years (even as our population has been falling, in the exodus from blue state misrule), California has the highest rate of poverty in America. We have the highest housing costs, the lowest homeownership, highest gas and utility bills, and the worst business climate–ten years in a row.

This record of failure is exactly why Democrats lost so badly on November 5th. Voters had a clear choice: between more of the same Democrat policies that raised the cost of living and lowered their quality of life, or a return to the peace and prosperity of the Trump years.

GAVIN NEWSOM TO MEET WITH BIDEN AFTER VOWING TO PROTECT STATE’S PROGRESSIVE POLICIES AGAINST TRUMP ADMIN

In many ways, the contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris represented a battle between the ‘blue state model’ championed by Gavin Newsom in California, and the ‘red state model’ that has driven people and businesses out of California and into the arms of more welcoming states like Texas, Tennessee and Florida.

Of course, the red state model won and the blue state model was roundly rejected. 

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You would think that would make blue state leaders like Newsom pause and reflect. But the exact opposite has happened. Gavin Newsom immediately called a “special session” of the California legislature to “Trump-proof” his state.

What California really needs is “Newsom-proofing.” 

Instead, California Democrats are doubling down on the exact same agenda that was defeated across the country – including in California, which saw the biggest shift from Democrats to the GOP in decades.

Here are the five things California Democrats still don’t get:

1. People want results, not lectures

Democrats and their media sycophants can do all the self-righteous, sanctimonious bloviating they like about “our democracy” and “equity”, but in the end people want the basics of the American Dream: a good job that pays enough to raise your family in a home of your own in a safe neighborhood with a good school so your kids can have a better life than you. No amount of moral superiority from the people in charge will make up for that if they fail to provide it.

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2. Enough with the ‘climate’ extremism

“Climate” has become a religion for Democrats, and you see that especially clearly in California. But when you look at the main reason life is so unaffordable for working people, whether that’s gas prices, utility bills or housing costs, extreme climate policies are to blame. Working-class Americans can’t afford these ‘luxury beliefs.’

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3. Who cares about Hollywood? 

This election destroyed forever the myth that fancy celebrities can sway votes. Oprah, Beyonce, George Clooney, Taylor Swift…nobody cares! The new cultural powerhouses are the podcast hosts, comedians…the raw power of UFC is where it’s at, not the decadent Hollywood elite who won’t even turn up to support “their” candidate without a multimillion dollar paycheck.

Producer and actress Oprah Winfrey holds up Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ hand as she arrives onstage during a campaign rally on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on November 4, 2024.  (Getty Images)

4. ‘Little tech’ beats Big Tech

Democrats may console themselves with the knowledge that California’s Big Tech monopolies are on their side. But in this election we saw the rise of what famed Silicon Valley investor Marc Andressen calls “little tech”, the upstarts and rebels who reject leftist groupthink. They got engaged in this election in a way we’ve never seen before. It’s a massive shift and will be a huge force for the future.

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5. Working class beats the elite 

Back in 2016, after the Brexit vote, and then Donald Trump’s victory here, shocked the world, I predicted that the Republican Party had the opportunity to become a “multiracial working class coalition.” Trump’s 2024 victory has delivered that — a revolutionary shift in our political landscape. The other part of my prediction? Democrats will be left as the party of the “rich, white and woke.”

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Unless Democrats come to terms with these realities and change course, they can expect to lose elections for years to come. The reaction in California – epicenter of today’s Democrat elite — shows that there is zero sign of this happening. 

They just don’t get it.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM STEVE HILTON

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California proposes its own EV buyer credit — which could cut out Elon Musk's Tesla

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California proposes its own EV buyer credit — which could cut out Elon Musk's Tesla


  • Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to revive California’s EV rebate if Trump ends the federal tax credit.
  • But Tesla, the largest maker of EVs, would be excluded under the proposal.
  • Elon Musk criticized Tesla’s potential exclusion from the rebate.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is preparing to step in if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills his promise to axe the federal electric-vehicle tax credit — but one notable EV maker could be left out.

Newsom said Monday if the $7,500 federal tax credit is eliminated he would restart the state’s zero-emission vehicle rebate program, which was phased out in 2023.

“We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California,” Newsom said in a statement. “We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future — we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.”

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The rebates for EV buyers would come from the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is funded by polluters of greenhouse gases under a cap-and-trade program, according to the governor’s office.

But Tesla’s vehicles could be excluded under the proposal’s market-share limitations, Bloomberg News first reported.

The governor’s office confirmed to Business Insider that the rebate program could include a market-share cap which could in turn exclude Tesla or other EV makers. The office did not share details about what market-share limit could be proposed and also noted the proposal would be subject to negotiations in the state legislature.

A market-share cap would exclude companies whose sales account for a certain amount of total electric vehicle sales. For instance, Tesla accounted for nearly 55% off all new electric vehicles registered in California in the first three quarters of 2024, according to a report from the California New Car Dealers Association. By comparison, the companies with the next highest EV market share in California were Hyundai and BMW with 5.6% and 5% respectively.

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Tesla sales in California, the US’s largest EV market, have recently declined even as overall EV sales in the state have grown. Though the company still accounted for a majority of EV sales in California this year as of September, its market share fell year-over-year from 64% to 55%.

The governor’s office said the market-share cap would be aimed at promoting competition and innovation in the industry.

Elon Musk, who has expressed support for ending the federal tax credit, said in an X post it was “insane” for the California proposal exclude Tesla.

The federal electric vehicle tax credit, which was passed as part of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, provides a $7,500 tax credit to some EV buyers.

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Musk, who is working closely with the incoming Trump administration, has expressed support for ending the tax credit. He’s set to co-lead an advisory commission, the Department of Government Efficiency, which is aimed at slashing federal spending.

The Tesla CEO said on an earnings call in July that ending the federal tax credit might actually benefit the company.

“I think it would be devastating for our competitors and for Tesla slightly,” Musk said. “But long-term probably actually helps Tesla, would be my guess.”

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BI’s Graham Rapier previously reported that ending the tax credit could help Tesla maintain its strong standing in the EV market by slowing its competitors growth.

Prior to the EV rebate proposal, Newsom has already positioned himself as a foil to the incoming Trump administration. Following Trump’s election win the governor called on California lawmakers to convene for a special session to discuss protecting the state from Trump’s second term.

“The freedoms we hold dear in California are under attack — and we won’t sit idle,” Newsom said in a statement at the time.





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California Gov. Gavin Newsom says state will provide rebates if Trump removes tax credit for electric vehicles

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom says state will provide rebates if Trump removes tax credit for electric vehicles


California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state will provide rebates to residents if President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration does away with a federal tax credit for electric vehicles.

In a news release issued Monday, Newsom said he would restart the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, which provided financial incentives on more than 590,000 vehicles before it was phased out late 2023.

“We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California,” Newsom said. “We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future — we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.”

The federal rebates on new and used electric vehicles were implemented in the Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law in 2022. When Trump’s second term in office begins next year, he could work with Congress to change the rules around those rebates. Those potential changes could limit the federal rebates, including by reducing the amount of money available or limiting who is eligible.

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Limiting federal subsidies on electric vehicle purchases would hurt many American automakers, including Ford, General Motors and the EV startup Rivian. Tesla, which also builds its automobiles in the United States, would take a smaller hit since that company currently sells more EVs and has a higher profit margin than any other EV manufacturer.

Newsom also announced earlier this month that he will convene a special session “to protect California values,” including fundamental civil rights and reproductive rights, that he said “are under attack by this incoming administration.”

“Whether it be our fundamental civil rights, reproductive freedom, or climate action — we refuse to turn back the clock and allow our values and laws to be attacked,” Newsom said on X on Nov. 7.

A spokesperson for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

This isn’t the first time California will be taking action against the Trump’s administration concerning clean transportation legislation.

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In 2019, California and 22 other states sued his administration for revoking its ability to set standards for greenhouse gas emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, The Associated Press reported.

California sued the Trump administration over 100 times during his first term, primarily on matters including gun control, health care, education and immigration, the Los Angeles Times reported.



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