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Beach erosion will make Southern California coastal living five times more expensive by 2050, study predicts

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Beach erosion will make Southern California coastal living five times more expensive by 2050, study predicts


Multi-date shoreline evolution analysis using the DSAS model. a Shoreline evolution analysis from 1992 to 2018 for the beaches of the Gulf of Santa Catalina in Southern California, U.S., projected over the 2014 ESRI scene. b Shoreline evolution in the validation site of Corona del Mar State Beach (CA, U.S.). c Shoreline evolution of the validation site of Hammamet North Beach, Tunisia. The net shoreline movement in both validation sites, from 1992 to 2018, is −35 m for Corona Del Mar and −90 m for Hammamet North Beach. Credit: Communications Earth & Environment (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01388-6

Rising sea levels and urban development are accelerating coastal erosion at an alarming rate in Southern California with significant ripple effects on the region’s economy, a USC study reveals.

The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, predicts that Southern California’s coastal living costs will surge fivefold by 2050 as a direct result of beach erosion. This erosion will require more frequent and costly beach nourishment projects to maintain the state’s treasured shorelines, consequently driving up the cost of living along the coast.

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“Our study presents compelling evidence of the rapid deterioration of Southern California’s coastal landscapes,” said Essam Heggy, a geoscientist in the Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering/Electrophysics at the USC Viterbi School of Engineering and the study’s corresponding author.

“The challenges facing Southern California mirror a growing threat shared by coastal communities worldwide. The environmental and economic implications of coastal erosion reach far beyond California’s shores and demand interdisciplinary, global solutions,” he said.

Coastal erosion: Cost of living sure to surge as sandy beaches disappear

To predict future changes along California’s sandy coastlines, the researchers focused on the Gulf of Santa Catalina, which stretches over 150 miles from the Palos Verdes Peninsula in Los Angeles County to the northern tip of Baja California in Mexico.

They used a combination of historical and recent satellite images as well as advanced algorithms to analyze coastline movement and predict future erosion based on different trends and environmental factors.

The study predicts a tripling of erosion rates by 2050, increasing from an average of 1.45 meters per year to 3.18 meters by 2100. Consequently, the annual sand requirement for beach nourishment could triple by 2050, with costs rising fivefold due to the global increase in sand prices. This will exacerbate economic and logistical pressures on coastal communities.

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Beach nourishment is adding sand to an eroded beach to rebuild it and create a wider barrier against waves and storms.

“Our investigation suggests that coastal problems start inland due to the rapid growth of cities along the coast, which compromise inland sediment replenishment of sandy beaches,” said Heggy, whose research focuses on understanding water evolution in Earth’s arid environments.

“As our beaches shrink, the cost of maintaining them will rise. Finding innovative solutions is key to securing a sustainable future for our shores and local economies,” he said.

Coastal erosion in California: A case study for a global problem

Coastal cities in Southern California and those in North Africa bordering the Mediterranean Sea face a common challenge: a semi-arid climate year-round coupled with the growing threats of rising sea levels and eroding shorelines.

A significant portion of Earth’s landmass, roughly 41%, falls under arid or semi-arid classifications, and these areas support over a third of the global population.

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To understand this global challenge, the researchers focused on two specific locations: Corona del Mar in Orange County, Calif.—an example of the typical Southern California coastline—and Hammamet North Beach in Tunisia. Both are densely populated and share similar climates, prone to increasing droughts, flash floods and unpredictable rainfall patterns. These characteristics mirror the challenges faced by countless coastal communities worldwide.

The findings showed that the average rate of shoreline retreat in these areas varies. In Southern California, beaches are receding between 0.75 and 1.24 meters per year. In Hammamet North Beach, the retreat rate ranges from 0.21 to about 4.49 meters annually.

“While beach nourishment can temporarily combat erosion, however, it presents significant challenges for developing countries,” said Oula Amrouni, a sedimentologist at the National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies at the University of Carthage, Tunis, Tunisia, and one of the study’s co-authors.

“The high cost of acquiring the right sand, with the specific grain size, quality and composition, and the technical complexity of extracting and laying it are major hurdles. Additionally, worsening erosion in previously stable areas compels more frequent nourishment projects, straining already limited budgets and leading to unplanned expenditures for many communities.”

More information:
Oula Amrouni et al, Shoreline retreat and beach nourishment are projected to increase in Southern California, Communications Earth & Environment (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01388-6

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Beach erosion will make Southern California coastal living five times more expensive by 2050, study predicts (2024, May 22)
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California DOJ cracks down on hospice fraud. Takes shot at Trump Administration

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California DOJ cracks down on hospice fraud. Takes shot at Trump Administration


From one crackdown on hospice fraud to another.

A few weeks ago, the FBI arrested multiple people in Southern California that were accused of defrauding the government for millions of dollars.

In a more recent announcement last Thursday, California’s State Attorney General Rob Bonta held a press conference to announce a fraud bust of their own.

“Operation Skip Trace uncovered and ended a hospice fraud scheme that defrauded Medi-Cal of $267 million,” Bonta said. “So just to be clear, a quarter billion dollars over funds that are paid for by California taxpayers, funds that are meant to provide care to Californians in need. It is unacceptable. It is illegal and we will not stand for it.”

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The operation saw a total of 21 suspects charged as a result and dismantled a major hospice fraud scheme, with two handguns and over $750 thousand in cash seized as well.

According to the state’s attorney general, this is just one of the many cases over the years the state has cracked down on.

“This is just the latest example of the California DOJ’s longstanding ongoing and successful efforts to combat hospice and medical fraud,” Bonta said. “We have been doing this work for years. We’ve been doing it successfully before certain people in this country decided to think about it for the first time. We will continue to do this work. Heads down, sleeves rolled up, important investigative work, prosecutorial work.”

He added to that by taking a shot at the Trump Administration’s latest fraud operations.

“While healthcare fraud might be President Trump’s shiny new political talking point, the California DOJ has been going after healthcare fraud since 1979,” Bonta said. “For decades, Trump is late to the party. Protecting taxpayer dollars and protecting programs sick and vulnerable Californians rely on have been our priority for nearly five decades.”

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Governor Gavin Newsom also spoke out about this latest crackdown while taking a shot of his own at President Trump.

In a post to “X” the Governor’s Press Office wrote in part quote…

“California has been cracking down on hospice fraud long before Trump gutted oversight and pardoned the architect of the biggest health care fraud scheme in U.S. history.”

State Republicans have responded to this latest announcement from Attorney General Bonta, calling for a special session to demand accountability from the Governor on widespread fraud.



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Xavier Becerra surges in poll after Eric Swalwell drops out of California governor’s race

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Xavier Becerra surges in poll after Eric Swalwell drops out of California governor’s race


A new poll shows a major shift in the California governor’s race after former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who was once a frontrunner, dropped out of the election following several allegations of sexual misconduct.

“This definitely throws this race into even more volatility, creates a huge vacuum,” Pomona College politics professor Sara Sadhwani said. 

According to the new numbers, Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and Health and Human Services Secretary under President Biden, is surging in popularity. 

In Emerson College’s Inside California Politics poll, Becerra is now polling at 10%, a seven-point jump since March.

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Republican Steve Hilton remains in the lead with 17%, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14%.

Among Democrats, billionaire Tom Steyer leads the pack with 14%, followed by Becerra and former Rep. Katie Porter at 10% each. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan sits at 5%.

The poll showed that 23% of voters remain undecided.

“Xavier Becerra should be the happiest of them all because he’s the biggest move in this survey,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs.

Emerson College conducted the poll right after Swalwell dropped out of the race and President Trump endorsed Hilton.

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“I believe over time, because Trump has endorsed Hilton for the governorship, that Hilton will continue to edge up and Bianco by definition will have to go down,” Yaroslavsky said. 

Last weekend, the California GOP held its convention, and, similar to the Democrats, the party did not make an endorsement. However, Bianco received the most votes from the GOP delegates.

“We’re extremely happy with how it came out,” Bianco said. “There was a lot of effort put in by my opponent. Hundreds of thousands of dollars to try and win this election.

With the large number of undecided voters, Yaroslavky believes that the race is still in the air. 

“It’s still early,” Yaroslavsky said. “It’s a little less than seven weeks before the election. The ballots go out at the beginning of next month. People, at least 30%, still haven’t made up their mind.”

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In the state’s primary system, only the top two vote-getters in the June primary will advance to the November general election.   



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Here are the candidates in the running to be California’s next governor

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Here are the candidates in the running to be California’s next governor


The race to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who terms out after this year, is ramping up with voters able to cast ballots soon.

The stunning collapse of Eric Swalwell’s campaign has upended the wide-open contest where no Democratic candidate has emerged as a clear frontrunner and mail-in voting is scheduled to start in May

California has an unpredictable top-two primary system that puts all candidates on one ballot, with only the top two vote-getters advancing to November, regardless of party. Despite their party’s dominance in the state, Democrats fear their crowded pool of candidates will divide the party’s vote and allow two Republicans to advance.

Here’s a look at the prominent candidates:

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