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A Preview of California House Races, 2022 Midterm Elections | Foley & Lardner LLP

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A Preview of California House Races, 2022 Midterm Elections | Foley & Lardner LLP


Up to date as of September 26th, 2022. Rankings are from FiveThirtyEight and Prepare dinner Political Report

Because it has prior to now, California has confirmed to be one of many key states that in the end determines management of the Home. This yr is not any totally different, with aggressive races within the Central Valley and Orange County, each events look to choose up seats in a yr that’s proving to be extraordinarily aggressive. See beneath for an election breakdown of every congressional district for the 2022 Midterm Elections.

District 1:

  • District is rated Sturdy Republican (R+24)
    • Republican: Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 1st district.
    • Democrat: Max Steiner (D)

District 2:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+50)
    • Democrat: Rep. Jared Huffman (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twond district.
    • Republican: Douglas Brower (R)

District 3:

  • Open seat. District is rated as Doubtless Republican (R+7.8)
    • Republican: Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R)
    • Democrat: Kermit Jones (D)

District 4:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+42)
    • Democrat: Rep. Mike Thompson (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 5th district.
    • Republican: Matt Brock (R)

District 5:

  • District is rated as Strong Republican (R+23)
    • Republican: Rep. Tom McClintock (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 4th district.
    • Democrat: Michael Barkley (D).

District 6:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+20)
    • Democrat: Rep. Ami Bera (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents 7th district.
    • Republican: Tanika Hamilton (R)

District 7:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the sixth district.
    • Republican: Max Semenenko (R)

District 8:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+50)
    • Democrat: Rep. John Garamendi (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the threerd district.
    • Republican: Rudy Recile (R)

District 9:

  • District is rated as Doubtless Democrat (D+5.8) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Rep. Josh Tougher (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the tenth district.
    • Republican: Tom Patti (R) – San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors
    • Incumbent Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) is retiring
  • Prepare dinner Political has this race rated “Lean Democrat”

District 10:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+34)
    • Democrat: Rep. Mark DeSaulnier (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the eleventh district.
    • Inexperienced Celebration: Michael Ernest Kerr

District 11:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+76)
    • Democrat: Speaker of the Home Nancy Pelosi (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents CA-12.
    • Republican: John Dennis (R)

District 12:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+80)
    • Democrat: Rep. Barbara Lee (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirteenth district.
    • Republican: Stephen Slauson (R)

District 13:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+3.8) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Assemblyman Adam Grey (D).
    • Republican: John Duarte (R) – Businessman
  • Prepare dinner Political has this race rated as a “Toss-up”

District 14:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+45)
    • Democrat: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the fifteenth district.
    • Republican: Not but decided

District 15:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+54)
    • Main Democrat: State Meeting Speaker Professional Tempore Kevin Mullin (D)
    • Democrat: David Canepa (D)
  • Incumbent Rep. Jackie Speier (D) is retiring, Mullin may be very favored to win.

District 16:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Anna Eshoo (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 18th district.
    • Republican: Not but decided

District 17:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+45)
    • Democrat: Rep. Ro Khanna (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the seventeenth district.
    • Democrat: Rishi Kumar (D)

District 18:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+42)
    • Democrat: Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the nineteenth district.
    • Republican: Peter Hernandez (R)

District 19:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+42)
    • Democrat: Rep. Jimmy Panetta (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twentieth district.
    • Republican: Jeff Gorman (R)

District 20:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Republican (R+31)
    • Republican: Home Minority Chief Kevin McCarthy (R) – at the moment represents 23rd district.
    • Democrat: Marisa Wooden (R)

District 21:

  • Open Seats, District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+16)
    • Democrat: Rep. Jim Costa (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the sixteenth district.
    • Republican: Michael Maher (R)
    • Former State Meeting Member Connie Conway (R) gained the particular election to interchange Rep. Devin Nunes. Conway will vacate the seat.

District 22:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (D+1) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)
    • Republican: Rep. David Valadao (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents 21st district

District 23:

  • District is rated as Doubtless Republican (R+21)
    • Republican: Rep. Jay Obernolte (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 8th district
    • Democrat: Derek Marshall (R)

District 24:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Salud Carbajal (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twenty fourth district.
    • Republican: Brad Allen (R)

District 25:

  • District is rated as Doubtless Democrat (D+15)
    • Democrat: Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirty sixth district.
    • Republican: Brian Hawkins (R)

District 26:

  • District is rated as Strong Democrat (D+17)
    • Democrat: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twenty sixth district.
    • Republican: Matt Jacobs (R)

District 27:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (R+1) – Key Race
    • Republican: Rep. Mike Garcia (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twenty fifth district.
    • Democrat: Christy Smith (D) – ran towards Garcia in 2018 and 2020.

District 28:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Judy Chu (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twenty seventh district.
    • Republican: Wes Hallman (R)

District 29:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+50)
    • Main Democrat: Rep. Tony Cardenas (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twenty ninth district.
    • Democrat: Angelica Maria Duenas (D)

District 30:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+50)
    • Main Democrat: Rep. Adam Schiff (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the twenty eighth district.
    • Democrat: G. Pudlo (D)

District 31:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Grace Napolitano (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 32nd district.
    • Republican: Daniel Bocic Martinez (R)

District 32:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+43)
    • Democrat: Rep. Brad Sherman (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirtieth district.
    • Republican: Lucie Lapointe Volotzky (R)

District 33:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+25)
    • Democrat: Rep. Pete Aguilar (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirteenth district.
    • Republican: John Mark Porter (R)

District 34:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+63)
    • Main Democrat: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirty fourth district.
    • Democrat: David Kim (D)

District 35:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Norma Torres (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirteenth district.
    • Republican: Mike Cargyle (R)

District 36:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+33)
    • Democrat: Rep. Ted Lieu (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 33rd district.
    • Republican: Joe E. Collins III (R) – Veteran

District 37:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+72)
    • Main Democrat: State Senator Sydney Kamlager (D)
    • Democrat: Jan Perry (D)
  • Incumbent Rep. Karen Bass (D) has introduced that she’s going to retire to run for mayor of Los Angeles.

District 38:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+25)
    • Democrat: Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirty eighth district.
    • Republican: Eric J. Ching (R)

District 39:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+25)
    • Democrat: Rep. Mark Takano (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirty ninth district.
    • Republican: TSgt. Aja Smith (R) – Veteran

District 40:

  • District is rated as Doubtless Republican (R+13) – Key Race
    • Republican Rep. Younger Kim (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirty ninth district.
    • Democrat: Asif Mahmood (D)
  • This district will mix with the 47th district and kind the 42nd congressional district.
    • Incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) is retiring.

District 41:

  • District is rated as Doubtless Republican (R+8) – Key Race
    • Republican: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 42nd district.
    • Democrat: Will Rollins (D)

District 42:

  • Open Seat, District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+37)
    • Democrat: Robert Garcia (D) – Lengthy Seashore Mayor.
    • Republican: John Briscoe (R)
  • This district is now made up of each the 40th and the 47th congressional district. Each incumbents retiring.

District 43:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+61)
    • Democrat: Rep. Maxine Waters (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 43rd district.
    • Republican: Omar Navarro (R)

District 44:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+55)
    • Democrat: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the forty fourth district.
    • Republican: Paul Jones (R)

District 45:

  • District is rated as Toss-up (R+5) – Key Race
    • Republican: Rep. Michelle Metal (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the forty eighth district.
    • Democrat: Jay Chen (D) – Veteran

District 46:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+33)
    • Main Democrat: Rep. Lou Correa (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the forty sixth district.
    • Republican: Christopher J. Gonzalez (R)

District 47:

  • District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+7) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Rep. Katie Porter (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the thirteenth district.
    • Republican: former State Assemblyman and Republican Chief Scott Baugh
  • This district will mix with the 40th congressional district to kind the 42nd district.
    • Incumbent Alan Lowenthal (D) is retiring.

District 48:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Republican (R+19)
    • Republican: Rep. Darrell Issa (R) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the fiftieth district.
    • Democrat: Stephen Houlahan (D)

District 49:

  • District is rated as Lean Democrat (D+10) – Key Race
    • Democrat: Rep. Mike Levin (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the forty ninth district.
    • Republican: Brian Marryott (R)

District 50:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Scott Peters (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 52nd district.
    • Republican: Cory Gustafon (R)

District 51:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+30)
    • Democrat: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 53rd district.
    • Republican: Stan Caplan (R)

District 52:

  • District is rated as Sturdy Democrat (D+40)
    • Democrat: Rep. Juan Vargas (D) – Incumbent, at the moment represents the 52nd district.
    • Republican: Tyler Geffeney (R)

 

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California

California may exclude Tesla from EV rebate program

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California may exclude Tesla from EV rebate program


California Gov. Gavin Newsom may exclude Tesla and other automakers from an electric vehicle (EV) rebate program if the incoming Trump administration scraps a federal tax credit for electric car purchases.

Newsom proposed creating a new version of the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program, which was phased out in 2023 after funding more than 594,000 vehicles and saving more than 456 million gallons of fuel, the governor’s office said in a news release on Monday.

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“Consumers continue to prove the skeptics wrong – zero-emission vehicles are here to stay,” Newsom said in a statement. “We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future – we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.”

The proposed rebates would be funded with money from the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is funded by polluters under the state’s cap-and-trade program, the governor’s office said. Officials did not say how much the program would cost or save consumers.

NEBRASKA AG LAUNCHES ASSAULT AGAINST CALIFORNIA’S ELECTRIC VEHICLE PUSH

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday proposed creating a new version of the state’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program if the incoming Trump administration scraps a federal tax credit for electric car purchases. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images, File / Getty Images)

They would also include changes to promote innovation and competition in the zero-emission vehicles market – changes that could prevent automakers like Tesla from qualifying for the rebates.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who relocated Tesla’s corporate headquarters from California to Texas in 2021, responded to the possibility of having Tesla EVs left out of the program.

Tesla automobile plugged in and charging a Supercharger rapid battery charging station for the electric vehicle company Tesla Motors, in the Silicon Valley town of Mountain View, California, August 24, 2016.

Tesla and other automakers may not qualify for the proposed tax credits, according to the governor’s office. (Getty Images, File / Getty Images)

“Even though Tesla is the only company who manufactures their EVs in California! This is insane,” Musk wrote on X, which he also owns.

BENTLEY PUSHES BACK ALL-EV LINEUP TIMELINE TO 2035

Those buying or leasing Tesla vehicles accounted for about 42% of the state’s rebates, The Associated Press reported, citing data from the California Air Resources Board.

Newsom’s office told Fox Business Digital that the proposal is intended to foster market competition, and any potential market cap is subject to negotiation with the state Legislature. 

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“Under a potential market cap, and depending on what the cap is, there’s a possibility that Tesla and other automakers could be excluded,” the governor’s office said. “But that’s again subject to negotiations with the legislature.”

Newsom’s office noted that such market caps have been part of rebate programs since George W. Bush’s administration in 2005.

Democrat California Gov. Gavin Newsom

Newsom has pushed Californians to replace gas-powered vehicles with zero-emission vehicles. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Federal tax credits for EVs are currently worth up to $7,500 for new zero-emission vehicles. President-elect Trump has previously vowed to end the credit.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

California has surpassed 2 million zero-emission vehicles sold, according to the governor’s office. The state, however, could face a $2 billion budget deficit next year, Reuters reported, citing a non-partisan legislative estimate released last week.

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STEVE HILTON: Five things California Democrats still don't get

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STEVE HILTON: Five things California Democrats still don't get


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Along with most other Democratic politicians in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom still doesn’t seem to understand what happened in the 2024 election.

For years, Newsom, along with California cronies like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and, of course, Vice President Kamala Harris, bragged about their state being a “model for the nation.”

In one sense–not the one they intended, of course–that’s true. California became a model of what not to do.

CALIFORNIA VOTERS NARROWLY REJECT $18 MINIMUM WAGE; FIRST SUCH NO-VOTE NATIONWIDE SINCE 1996

The terrible combination of elitism and extremism that has defined Democratic policymaking in my home state for at least the last decade has delivered failure on every front.

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Despite having the highest taxes in the nation, despite the state’s budget nearly doubling in the last ten years (even as our population has been falling, in the exodus from blue state misrule), California has the highest rate of poverty in America. We have the highest housing costs, the lowest homeownership, highest gas and utility bills, and the worst business climate–ten years in a row.

This record of failure is exactly why Democrats lost so badly on November 5th. Voters had a clear choice: between more of the same Democrat policies that raised the cost of living and lowered their quality of life, or a return to the peace and prosperity of the Trump years.

GAVIN NEWSOM TO MEET WITH BIDEN AFTER VOWING TO PROTECT STATE’S PROGRESSIVE POLICIES AGAINST TRUMP ADMIN

In many ways, the contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris represented a battle between the ‘blue state model’ championed by Gavin Newsom in California, and the ‘red state model’ that has driven people and businesses out of California and into the arms of more welcoming states like Texas, Tennessee and Florida.

Of course, the red state model won and the blue state model was roundly rejected. 

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You would think that would make blue state leaders like Newsom pause and reflect. But the exact opposite has happened. Gavin Newsom immediately called a “special session” of the California legislature to “Trump-proof” his state.

What California really needs is “Newsom-proofing.” 

Instead, California Democrats are doubling down on the exact same agenda that was defeated across the country – including in California, which saw the biggest shift from Democrats to the GOP in decades.

Here are the five things California Democrats still don’t get:

1. People want results, not lectures

Democrats and their media sycophants can do all the self-righteous, sanctimonious bloviating they like about “our democracy” and “equity”, but in the end people want the basics of the American Dream: a good job that pays enough to raise your family in a home of your own in a safe neighborhood with a good school so your kids can have a better life than you. No amount of moral superiority from the people in charge will make up for that if they fail to provide it.

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2. Enough with the ‘climate’ extremism

“Climate” has become a religion for Democrats, and you see that especially clearly in California. But when you look at the main reason life is so unaffordable for working people, whether that’s gas prices, utility bills or housing costs, extreme climate policies are to blame. Working-class Americans can’t afford these ‘luxury beliefs.’

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

3. Who cares about Hollywood? 

This election destroyed forever the myth that fancy celebrities can sway votes. Oprah, Beyonce, George Clooney, Taylor Swift…nobody cares! The new cultural powerhouses are the podcast hosts, comedians…the raw power of UFC is where it’s at, not the decadent Hollywood elite who won’t even turn up to support “their” candidate without a multimillion dollar paycheck.

Producer and actress Oprah Winfrey holds up Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ hand as she arrives onstage during a campaign rally on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on November 4, 2024.  (Getty Images)

4. ‘Little tech’ beats Big Tech

Democrats may console themselves with the knowledge that California’s Big Tech monopolies are on their side. But in this election we saw the rise of what famed Silicon Valley investor Marc Andressen calls “little tech”, the upstarts and rebels who reject leftist groupthink. They got engaged in this election in a way we’ve never seen before. It’s a massive shift and will be a huge force for the future.

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5. Working class beats the elite 

Back in 2016, after the Brexit vote, and then Donald Trump’s victory here, shocked the world, I predicted that the Republican Party had the opportunity to become a “multiracial working class coalition.” Trump’s 2024 victory has delivered that — a revolutionary shift in our political landscape. The other part of my prediction? Democrats will be left as the party of the “rich, white and woke.”

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Unless Democrats come to terms with these realities and change course, they can expect to lose elections for years to come. The reaction in California – epicenter of today’s Democrat elite — shows that there is zero sign of this happening. 

They just don’t get it.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM STEVE HILTON

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California proposes its own EV buyer credit — which could cut out Elon Musk's Tesla

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California proposes its own EV buyer credit — which could cut out Elon Musk's Tesla


  • Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to revive California’s EV rebate if Trump ends the federal tax credit.
  • But Tesla, the largest maker of EVs, would be excluded under the proposal.
  • Elon Musk criticized Tesla’s potential exclusion from the rebate.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom is preparing to step in if President-elect Donald Trump fulfills his promise to axe the federal electric-vehicle tax credit — but one notable EV maker could be left out.

Newsom said Monday if the $7,500 federal tax credit is eliminated he would restart the state’s zero-emission vehicle rebate program, which was phased out in 2023.

“We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California,” Newsom said in a statement. “We’re not turning back on a clean transportation future — we’re going to make it more affordable for people to drive vehicles that don’t pollute.”

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The rebates for EV buyers would come from the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, which is funded by polluters of greenhouse gases under a cap-and-trade program, according to the governor’s office.

But Tesla’s vehicles could be excluded under the proposal’s market-share limitations, Bloomberg News first reported.

The governor’s office confirmed to Business Insider that the rebate program could include a market-share cap which could in turn exclude Tesla or other EV makers. The office did not share details about what market-share limit could be proposed and also noted the proposal would be subject to negotiations in the state legislature.

A market-share cap would exclude companies whose sales account for a certain amount of total electric vehicle sales. For instance, Tesla accounted for nearly 55% off all new electric vehicles registered in California in the first three quarters of 2024, according to a report from the California New Car Dealers Association. By comparison, the companies with the next highest EV market share in California were Hyundai and BMW with 5.6% and 5% respectively.

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Tesla sales in California, the US’s largest EV market, have recently declined even as overall EV sales in the state have grown. Though the company still accounted for a majority of EV sales in California this year as of September, its market share fell year-over-year from 64% to 55%.

The governor’s office said the market-share cap would be aimed at promoting competition and innovation in the industry.

Elon Musk, who has expressed support for ending the federal tax credit, said in an X post it was “insane” for the California proposal exclude Tesla.

The federal electric vehicle tax credit, which was passed as part of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, provides a $7,500 tax credit to some EV buyers.

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Musk, who is working closely with the incoming Trump administration, has expressed support for ending the tax credit. He’s set to co-lead an advisory commission, the Department of Government Efficiency, which is aimed at slashing federal spending.

The Tesla CEO said on an earnings call in July that ending the federal tax credit might actually benefit the company.

“I think it would be devastating for our competitors and for Tesla slightly,” Musk said. “But long-term probably actually helps Tesla, would be my guess.”

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BI’s Graham Rapier previously reported that ending the tax credit could help Tesla maintain its strong standing in the EV market by slowing its competitors growth.

Prior to the EV rebate proposal, Newsom has already positioned himself as a foil to the incoming Trump administration. Following Trump’s election win the governor called on California lawmakers to convene for a special session to discuss protecting the state from Trump’s second term.

“The freedoms we hold dear in California are under attack — and we won’t sit idle,” Newsom said in a statement at the time.





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