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Winter is coming, Arizona. Here’s what NOAA, AccuWeather, almanac are predicting

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Winter is coming, Arizona. Here’s what NOAA, AccuWeather, almanac are predicting


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  • NOAA predicts a warm and dry winter for Arizona during the 2025-2026 season.
  • AccuWeather forecasts historically higher temperatures and a dry season, with potential for late-season rainfall in January.
  • The Old Farmer’s Almanac anticipates a warm winter but with rain and above-average mountain snow in some areas.

Winter starts Dec. 21, and as those colder months creep closer, Arizonans want to know what they should anticipate.

Before you start breaking out your sweaters and making your northern Arizona ski trip plans, you need to know what this winter has in store.

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The Old Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have released their predictions for what the following winter months should bring, including snowfall, rain and temperatures.

To best understand what Arizona weather should bring for this winter season, 2025 to 2026, here’s everything to know about the Old Farmer’s Almanac, AccuWeather and the NOAA predictions.

When is the first day of winter 2025?

Winter starts on Sunday, Dec. 21, 2025.

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NOAA predicts winter will be dry and warm

NOAA predicts that most of Arizona will be 60-70% above normal temperatures for the months of November, and December. Although the southwest corner of Arizona shows it will be 40-50% above normal temperatures.

For the months of January, February and March, central and southern Arizona shows the temperature would be 40-50% above normal, while northern parts of Arizona would be 33-40% above normal temperatures.

For the months of November and December, precipitation for the western half of the state was expected to be 33-40% lower than usual according to NOAA. While the eastern part of Arizona similarly shows a 40-50% lower than normal precipitation prediction.

January, February, and March precipitation predictions remain similar, with the central and southern parts of Arizona having 40-50% lower-than-normal precipitation and the northern part predicted to have 33-40% lower-than-normal precipitation, according to NOAA.

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This will make for a dry winter with little snow due to the lack of moisture in the air and warm temperatures.

AccuWeather predicts a warmer winter with late season rainfall

The Southwest’s temperatures should run historically higher than usual due to warmth in the Pacific Ocean. According to AccuWeather’s map, central and southern Arizona’s temperatures will run at about three degrees or more above average based on historical temperatures in this region.

The warmth from the Southwest will also create a drier-than-usual season with precipitation expected to be 50-74% lower than usual, making out-of-season wildfires possible, according to AccuWeather.

Yet, January will most likely bring rainfall for the Southwest. However, come February, Arizona will return to being warm and dry, potentially bringing near-record temperature highs for February.

Lower than average snow was also expected in northern Arizona, according to AccuWeather. However, an early burst of winter storms was expected, with a lull of snow in the mid-winter season, then a resurgence in the late months of winter.

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Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warm winter with rain, snow in mountains

Phoenix and Tucson should expect warmer winter weather. The coldest temperatures were expected mid-November to early January, according to the almanac, with rain and mountain snow hitting various areas.

High elevation areas should prepare for snow in early December and January.

Snowfall was predicted to be above average in eastern parts of the desert Southwest region such as Show Low, with the snowiest periods being early December to mid-January, according to the almanac.

Flagstaff also should expect above normal snowfall and temperatures, and slightly-above-normal precipitation. According to the almanac the snowiest periods were set for late January to late March.

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Autopsies show Arizona teens were both shot in the head while camping

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Autopsies show Arizona teens were both shot in the head while camping


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  • Two teenagers were fatally shot while camping northeast of Phoenix in May 2025.
  • Both Evan Clark, 17, and Pandora Kjolsrud, 18, were shot in the head, autopsy reports said.
  • A 31-year-old man was arrested and indicted on two counts of first-degree murder in connection with the deaths.

A 17-year-old boy who was fatally shot while camping with a female classmate northeast of Phoenix died from gunshot wounds to the head, according to the first page of his autopsy report.

Evan Clark, 17, and Pandora Kjolsrud, 18, were camping just off State Route 87 near Mount Ord when the two were shot and killed. Investigators discovered their bodies, which had been moved into nearby brush to conceal them, on May 26, 2025.

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The first page of Clark’s autopsy report, which The Arizona Republic obtained March 3, found that his death was a homicide with multiple gunshot wounds to the head. The first page of Kjolsrud’s autopsy report also ruled her death a homicide with her cause of death being gunshot wounds to the head and upper body.

Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office detectives ultimately arrested Thomas Brown, 31, of Chandler on Oct. 2, 2025, in connection with their deaths. Brown was indicted on two counts of first-degree murder and remained in jail on a $2 million cash-only bond.

Detectives found Brown’s DNA on gloves inside Clark’s SUV that had Kjolsrud’s blood on them as well, the Sheriff’s Office said.

Partial autopsy reports made available following legal fight

While The Republic has obtained the first pages of both Clark’s and Kjolsrud’s autopsy reports, the remaining pages appeared to remain sealed as of March 3 since Simone Kjolsrud, Pandora’s mother, petitioned to have the autopsy reports sealed or redacted. Simone Kjolsrud argued that various details about her daughter and aspects of her personal life, potentially included in such documents, should remain private and outweigh the public’s right to know.

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A Sept. 25, 2025, motion that sought to block the report’s release argued the report could contain information law enforcement hasn’t yet shared and could impair the ongoing criminal investigation.

“Simone Kjolsrud fears that, if released, her daughter’s Medical Examiner’s Report may end up on the internet or be broadcast on the news, which would undoubtedly cause additional trauma and even jeopardize her constitutional right to justice in this case,” the motion stated.

Kjolsrud asked that Clark’s autopsy be sealed as well, arguing that it would likely contain details similar to her daughter’s.

Matthew Kelley, an attorney representing The Republic and other Arizona media outlets, previously objected to the autopsies being sealed and asked that the temporary protective order be vacated.

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“To be sure, these killings are particularly traumatic for a surviving family member,” Kelley wrote in his objection. “But the pain felt by a family member cannot override the public’s right to inspect public records reflecting the performance of law enforcement and other public agencies entrusted with investigating such crimes. A veil of secrecy only raises unnecessary speculation about such public performance.”

It was not immediately clear whether Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Geoffrey Fish, who initially ordered the autopsies remain sealed as he reviewed their contents, would unseal additional pages in their entirety or with redactions.

Reach the reporter Perry Vandell at perry.vandell@arizonarepublic.com or 602-444-2474. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @PerryVandell.





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No. 2 Arizona tops Iowa State to win outright Big 12 title

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No. 2 Arizona tops Iowa State to win outright Big 12 title


TUCSON, Ariz. — Jaden Bradley scored 17 points, Motiejus Krivas had 13 and No. 2 Arizona clinched the outright Big 12 regular-season title with a 73-57 win over No. 6 Iowa State on Monday night.

The Wildcats (28-2, 15-2) secured at least a share of the conference crown by using big runs in each half to beat No. 14 Kansas 84-61 on Saturday.

Arizona earned it outright by smothering Iowa State defensively to give Tommy Lloyd his 140th victory, most in NCAA history in a coach’s first five seasons.

“The Big 12 is the best basketball conference in the country,” Lloyd said while addressing the home crowd after the game, “and to win it by a couple of games, it’s pretty impressive. So take your hats off to these guys right here.”

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Coming off their first home loss of the season, the Cyclones (24-6, 11-6) labored against Arizona’s physical defense, shooting 29% from the field, including 7-of-30 from 3-point range.

During his postgame news conference, Lloyd called out the narrative surrounding his team when discussing the Wildcats’ toughness and physicality.

“I think the narrative that we were soft is lazy. I mean, look at our stats, look at our analytics — we’ve always been a great rebounding team, we’ve always pounded the paint,” Lloyd said. “If you want to just be lazy and not pay attention and say we’re soft because we’re on the West Coast, be lazy, and I’d love to play against you.”

Tamin Lipsey led Iowa State with 17 points, but leading scorer Milan Momcilovic was held to five points on 2-of-8 shooting. The nation’s best 3-point shooter at 51%, Momcilovic went 1-for-5 from beyond the arc.

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Neither team could make much of anything, due to good defense and poor shooting.

Iowa State shot 9-of-33 from the field and 4-of-20 from 3 in the first half.

Arizona labored most of the half as the Cyclones focused on defending the paint before the Wildcats closed on a 15-3 run to lead 37-25 at halftime.

It only got worse for Iowa State to start the second half. The Cyclones missed their first eight shots as Arizona stretched the lead to 16.

Iowa State briefly found an offensive rhythm, using a 10-1 run to pull to within 44-37, but didn’t hit a field goal for more than five minutes as Arizona stretched the lead back to 15.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.



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Arizona NAACP responds to ‘Simon Says’ case, calls for police accountability

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Arizona NAACP responds to ‘Simon Says’ case, calls for police accountability


PHOENIX — The Arizona NAACP is responding to the violent arrest of Israel Devoe, a Phoenix man who was acquitted of all charges stemming from a 2024 traffic stop in which officers punched, kneed, and elbowed him.

Sarah Tyree, president of the Arizona NAACP State Conference, said the case is part of a broader and familiar pattern.

“What happened here reflects a pattern our communities know all too well. Time and again, we see policing tactics that are dangerous and deeply harmful to civilians, yet are later justified as ‘within policy’ through carefully crafted reports and the broad protections afforded under Graham v. Connor,” Tyree wrote in an emailed statement following an ABC15 investigation.

RELATEDPhoenix man to file lawsuit after dangerous game of ‘Simon Says’ with police

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Phoenix police officials found all four officers involved in Devoe’s arrest to have acted within policy, records show.

After a two-day trial, jurors unanimously found Devoe not guilty on all four of the felony charges against him — including aggravated assault on officers and resisting arrest.

In her statement, Tyree said true accountability is not possible without changing state law.

“Accountability remains out of reach in Arizona because the Peace Officers’ Bill of Rights continues to insulate misconduct from meaningful oversight, too often shifting blame onto the very communities most impacted by these encounters,” she wrote. “We also encourage Arizona voters to engage their state legislators and advocate for the repeal or amendment of the Peace Officers’ Bill of Rights to ensure systems of public safety are truly accountable to the public they serve.”

Devoe’s case again highlights problems with policing in Phoenix, which has been under scrutiny following a Department of Justice investigation that found the city had a pattern and practice of using excessive force, discrimination, and weak oversight.

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The push for federal oversight ended in 2025 after the Trump administration ended such efforts across the country.

Devoe’s civil attorney, Jesse Showalter, also represents Tyron McAlpin, a deaf Black man with cerebral palsy who was violently arrested by Phoenix officers in July 2024. Showalter has said both cases reflect what he described as an accepted norm of extreme violence within the Phoenix Police Department.

A Phoenix police spokesperson said the department declines to comment because Devoe is set to file a lawsuit against the city.

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This digital article was produced with the assistance of AI and converted to this platform based on the broadcast story written and reported by ABC15 Chief Investigator Dave Biscobing (Dave@abc15.com). Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy. 





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