From penthouse to outhouse. That’s about the simplest way to explain Arizona’s 2024 season, particularly in comparison to the year before.

At this point last year the Wildcats were awaiting their bowl destination and matchup, riding what would become the longest active win streak in the country and at one of the highest points in program history, but six weeks later they were in need of a head coach after Jedd Fisch bolted to Washington and took a few of starters and recruits with him.

Enter Brent Brennan, a finalist for the UA gig in 2020 who had done a solid job at San Jose State but had never been more than a position coach at the power-conference level. The former Arizona graduate assistant managed to convince the bulk of the roster to stick with him, most notably the offensive duo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan and some top defensive veterans.

But that didn’t translate into anywhere near the kind of 2024 season anyone expected, with Arizona losing seven of its last eight and finishing with a 4-8 record, 2-7 in its first season in the Big 12 Conference.

Now comes an incredibly important offseason, one in which Brennan—who will be back for a second season, athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois confirmed Sunday—must retain his team’s best talent while also load up on instant help from the NCAA transfer portal.

Here’s our assessment of how things look for the program going into the offseason:

The projected roster

Arizona’s current roster includes just 12 players who are out of eligibility, most notably kicker Tyler Loop and leading rusher Quali Conley. But there will be far more departures, and not just from the players turning pro.

Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, offensive tackle Jonah Savaiinaea and cornerback Tacario Davis, all juniors, are expected to declare for the 2025 NFL Draft. T-Mac, the school career receiving leader, is a surefire 1^st round pick while Savaiinaea could go in the first few rounds and Davis has been high on draft boards despite an up-and-down 2024 season.

Those are the known exits. It’s the unknown ones that could have the biggest impact, and those could start trickling out this week though the portal doesn’t officially open until Dec. 9. The exodus began Sunday with redshirt freshman quarterback Brayden Dorman, who did not appear in a game the last two seasons, announced he is going to transfer.

It’s anyone’s guess who might choose to move on after experiencing one season under Brennan. Asked about how he was going to be able to convince existing players that 2025 and beyond will be better than what they just experienced, he said that may require a “leap of faith” that Brennan can turn things around.

“But they have been around us, they have been around our coaches,” Brennan said after the Territorial Cup. “They know our level of ability to teach and coach. I do feel like we have a great relationship with these players. I do think that is strong. I think the culture is healthy. And I think if you want to be a part of building something, great. If you want to go try and jump on a bandwagon somewhere else, if that’s who you are, go. I think we’ll be in a good spot with retention.”

The bulk of the departures are likely to come from players who didn’t contribute much (or all) in 2024, but a few key pieces could also leave. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Fifita look elsewhere after appearing to regress in the new offense, and with his best friend T-Mac off to the NFL.

Other starters/rotation players who could be candidates to transfer include offensive lineman Wendell Moe, tight end Keyan Burnett, running back Rayshon ‘Speedy’ Luke, wide receiver Chris Hunter, defensive lineman Ta’ita’i Uiagalelei and cornerback Emmanuel Karnley. Hunter, who emerged as the No. 2 receiving target behind T-Mac, could be someone that other schools would throw a lot of money at to acquire.

The staff

Arizona changed offensive play callers in the first month of the season, replacing offensive coordinator Dino Babers with tight ends coach/passing game coordinator Matt Adkins. It didn’t make a difference, as after scoring 61 points against New Mexico in the season opener the Wildcats averaged 18.1 points the rest of the way.

Bringing in an offensive coordinator is first and foremost on Brennan’s non-roster to-do list, and it has to be someone that shows creativity. Babers hadn’t called plays for several years while serving as Syracuse’s head coach, while Adkins’ previous experience in that area was in the Swedish Football League. Babers was also on a 1-year contract, so he won’t be back in 2025.

Defensive coordinator Duane Akina did the best he could with all of the injuries his unit sustained—all three captains underwent knee surgery, taking with them 86 starts—but that role may have been intended only as a stopgap, a way of maintaining some continuity with the previous staff in order to help keep many of Arizona’s top defensive players. Akina is best suited coaching the secondary, so a new coordinator may also be coming in for the defense.

Some changes could come to the position coaches, too, but in many cases that would require Brennan to move on from longtime assistants he brought with him from San Jose. Doing that would show a commitment to turning Arizona around, while staying loyal to old friends would send the opposite message.

Offseason needs

Arizona has 19 known commitments in the 2025 recruiting class, which can begin signing on Wednesday, and it had a few other prospects on official visits this past weekend. The class currently ranks 53^rd in the country, per 247Sports, and 10^th in the Big 12, though it was ranked in the upper 30s before seeing a few decommitments including top commit Terry Shelton, a 4-star receiver who flipped to TCU.

The class could include some instant contributors, like 4-star receiver Isaiah Mizell, but where Arizona will look to fill most of its biggest holes will be in the portal.

Brennan and his staff had to spend more time keeping Wildcats from entering the portal than recruiting from it when they first came on, with most of the transfer additions coming from the spring portal window. That group was a mixed bag, but this time around as a school that’s not going bowling the UA will get to focus their full attention on the portal when it opens in a week.

The offensive and defensive line will be the main priorities, as Arizona was too beat up on the former and too small on the latter to compete in the Big 12. Replacing all of the lost production from T-Mac will also need to be addressed, as will running back depth, while the secondary needs will depend on whether Gunner Maldonado and Treydan Stukes opt to use their redshirts as both only played four games in 2024.

Assuming Arizona devotes the resources needed to player acquisition, Arizona should add at least 20 transfers and likely more.

The 2025 schedule

On paper, Arizona’s 2024 schedule looked pretty manageable. It ended up being a lot more difficult than expected, and the Wildcats’ own regression only exacerbated the results.

The UA’s opponents ended up going a combined 85-60, with seven winning at least eight games (including NAU, which reached the FCS playoffs) and seven set to play in bowls. ESPN’s FPI ranked Arizona’s schedule as the 48th-toughest in the country, 8th-hardest in the Big 12.

Looking at the 2025 slate, Arizona is set to play six bowl-bound teams including all four that tied for the Big 12 regular season title. Only one of those will be at home, as BYU is part of the 7-game home schedule while the Wildcats will visit ASU, Colorado and Iowa State.

The 11 FBS opponents on next year’s schedule, including Hawaii and another nonconference tilt with Kansas State, are currently a combined 77-68.

The full 2025 schedule is expected to be released in January.