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Key Senate race in Arizona could hinge on voters who back Trump and the Democratic candidate

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Key Senate race in Arizona could hinge on voters who back Trump and the Democratic candidate


PHOENIX (AP) — If Ruben Gallego is going to give Democrats their fourth straight U.S. Senate victory in Arizona, he’s probably going to need support from an unlikely group: Donald Trump voters.

Gallego and his GOP rival, former television news anchor Kari Lake, are both targeting undecided Republicans in a contest that will test the strength of Trump’s coattails. Ticket-splitting voters are increasingly rare in an era when partisan loyalty reigns, but they could be central in determining which party controls the Senate.

For Gallego, that means winning over voters like Winfield Morris, a 62-year-old Republican farmer and rancher who plans to vote for Trump for president but can’t get behind his loyal ally in the Senate race.

“I don’t like Kari Lake and I’m not going to vote for her,” said Morris, who lives in southern Arizona and has businesses across the state. “I don’t think she has what it takes.”

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Morris supported former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley over Trump and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb over Lake in the GOP primaries. He said he was furious to see Lake attack the late Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain in her failed 2022 campaign for governor. Trump also has attacked McCain, but Morris said he doesn’t see Democrat Kamala Harris as a viable alternative.

Morris said he likes that Gallego was a Marine and may vote for him but wants to learn more about him. He’s also considering writing in a Republican he respects, such as Lamb, who got 40% of the vote in the Senate primary despite being vastly outspent and overshadowed by Lake.

Democrats have a difficult path to keep the Senate

Democrats’ difficult path to retaining control of the Senate relies on winning over Republicans in states so red, neither presidential candidate is putting much effort into winning them. But some of those races involve established incumbents who already have a record to run on.

An ad supporting Montana Sen. Jon Tester — one of the most endangered Democrats in the Senate, who has declined to endorse Harris — showcases Republicans crossing party lines.

“Jon got over 20 bills signed into law by President Trump,” one man says in the ad.

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Trump is well positioned in Ohio, but the race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican challenger Bernie Moreno could be more competitive.

The effort to win over ticket-splitters is harder for less established candidates, but some are trying. In North Dakota, longshot Democratic Senate candidate Katrina Christiansen released an ad this week narrated by a rancher who says he’s voting for Trump but not for Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer.

In swing-state North Carolina, where Republican Mark Robinson’s campaign for governor is struggling following a CNN report linking him to disturbing posts on an online porn site, the Trump campaign is counting on ticket-splitting in the opposite direction, hoping GOP voters who bail on Robinson will stick with the former president in a state he badly needs to win.

In Arizona, meanwhile, Gallego is hoping to replicate the model that has propelled Democrats to narrow statewide victories since Trump’s first victory, including Sens. Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly and Gov. Katie Hobbs, who defeated Lake in 2022.

He’s getting plenty of help. Democrats so far have outspent Republicans on advertising by a wide margin on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending. As of Thursday, Democrats had spent $60.7 million on the race, compared to $16.4 million spent by Republicans. Democrats also have $35.7 million in spots reserved between now and Election Day, compared to $11.7 million reserved by GOP-affiliated groups.

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What to know about the 2024 Election

Gallego’s strategy relies on Democrats keeping their own supporters united, getting a majority of independents and picking up a small but decisive share of Republicans by appealing to conservatives who dislike Trump.

“Especially in modern times, to have ticket splitters that big is extraordinary. But I think it’s entirely accurate,” said Mike Madrid, a California-based Republican strategist who has worked to defeat Trump. “They’re sticking more to Trump because he’s the top-of-the-ticket nominee, and losing the presidency is a lot different than losing a Senate seat.”

Republicans have had a hard time replicating Trump’s coalition

Celebrity candidates who are close to Trump but lack strong ties to the GOP establishment have had a hard time replicating Trump’s coalition, Madrid said. Television doctor Mehmet Oz and football legend Herschel Walker both lost Senate races two years ago. As a well-known local news personality, Lake fits the mold.

Both Lake’s and Gallego’s messaging reflect the importance of undecided Republicans to the outcome of the race.

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Both are running ads focused on border security, almost exclusively so in Lake’s case. Gallego even gently rebukes the Biden-Harris administration in one ad playing in heavy rotation, saying, “Arizonans know — on the border, there is no plan.” He did not appear with Harris when she visited the Arizona-Mexico border on Friday.

And both Gallego and Lake are showcasing support from Republicans. For Gallego, it’s a businessman who says in ads he’s a Republican and calls the congressman a “man of principles.” For Lake, it’s Trump himself, as she reminds his supporters that he’s backing her. She’s been one of his most steadfast allies, embracing his lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him due to widespread fraud.

The cross-currents of divided loyalties among traditionally Republican groups often surface at campaign events. For example, the Arizona Police Association, which represents thousands of officers in the state, endorsed Gallego, citing his background as a Marine combat veteran. Just three days earlier, Trump called the group’s president, Justin Harris, to the stage to bestow an endorsement on the former president at a rally outside Phoenix.

Gallego hopes there’s more where that came from, and there’s some history to suggest that’s possible.

In 2020, Republican Senate candidate Martha McSally privately fretted that she was running behind with Trump voters, which turned out to be the case. While Trump lost Arizona by 10,457 votes — .03 percentage points — McSally lost by 78,806 to Kelly, indicating tens of thousands of voters split their tickets.

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Some observers say Gallego fits the profile of the kind of candidate who could replicate the path forged by Kelly, a tough-talking former astronaut.

“Ruben is a legitimate tough guy,” said Stacy Pearson, a Phoenix-based Democratic strategist, who ran the successful 2016 campaign to oust Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, which relied on voters who backed Trump at the top of the ticket. “He’s an Iraq War vet. He is a person who sincerely pulled himself up by his bootstraps, and that resonates very much with this Western state.”

___

Associated Press writers Jack Dura in Bismarck, North Dakota, and Amy Beth Hanson in Helena, Montana, contributed to this report.





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Cardinals embarrassed by Commanders in Kingsbury's return

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Cardinals embarrassed by Commanders in Kingsbury's return


GLENDALE –Embarrassment. That was the word best associated with the end of the Kliff Kingsbury era with the Arizona Cardinals.

Whether it be the product on the field — especially at home — or the mountain of distractions off of it, there was no escaping it for the franchise.

Fast forward to two seasons later, and embarrassment was again coursing through State Farm Stadium with Kingsbury in attendance, albeit for a completely different reason.

In his return to Arizona as the Washington Commanders offensive coordinator, Kingsbury and former Arizona State Sun Devil Jayden Daniels again had their offense rolling, carving up the Cardinals to the tune of 42-14 on Sunday.

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“We got a couple stops on defense. We scored some points, but not a lot (of positives),” head coach Jonathan Gannon said postgame. “This league is very humbling and we got humbled today.”

Even with Washington’s scoring and turnover streaks coming to an end, the Commanders had more than enough offense to get the job done on Sunday.

As a team, Washington amassed 449 yards of offense and scored on all but two of its drives throughout the afternoon.

Outside of an early interception, the Cardinals defense really had no answer for Daniels, who completed 86.7% of his passes (26-for-30) for 233 yards and a touchdown. He was not sacked.

“He’s a good player. He’s dynamic,” head coach Jonathan Gannon said postgame. “We had him wrapped up a couple times and he got out of it and made some plays with his legs. He gets the ball out and he’s accurate.

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“I give him a lot of credit, but we’ve got to do a better job of affecting the quarterback.”

Washington’s run game had little resistance, too, rushing for 216 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries. Daniels had his handprints in the run game, too, behind 47 yards and a touchdown on eight carries.

The Commanders offense absolutely took it to the Cardinals on Sunday. But it was Kingsbury’s victory laps down the sideline on seemingly every Washington touchdown scored — getting a peek at the Arizona sideline every now and again — that was the proverbial twist of the knife for Cardinals fans.

And for as bad as the defense looked, the offense wasn’t much better.

In what’s become a common theme for the Cardinals this season, they had little trouble scoring on their opening drive behind a quarterback Kyler Murray two-yard touchdown pass to rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

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Much like last week, though, Arizona’s offense couldn’t back up the quick start. After going 55 yards for the score on the opening drive, the Cardinals registered just 51 yards across the next five possessions before eventually finding the end zone for a final time late in the third quarter.

Among the most glaring issues for the Cardinals offense was the inability to move the chains on third down, converting four times out of 11 tries (36%).

The poor third-down conversion rate has been a recurring theme in recent weeks, with the Cardinals going 1-for-9 on third down in last week’s loss to the Lions.

“We gotta be able to stay on the field,” Murray said postgame. “That’ll take a lot of the pressure off the defense. We all work together. When you can’t stay on the field on third down and the defense is always on the field, they get worn down and vice versa. As a team, we have to be better.”

Seeing Kingsbury back on the sidelines of State Farm Stadium was bound to bring back some memories for Cardinals fans.

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They probably didn’t expect the Cardinals to pay homage to Kingsbury’s last ride in Arizona with that kind of performance, though.

A positive in waiting?

If you can find a positive outside of two defensive stops and a pair of touchdowns, take a bow. That’s harder than finding Waldo.

But while the negatives are front and center, how Arizona responds in the aftermath of the beatdown will speak a lot to the makeup of this team.

“We’ll get back to it and the positive will be what we get out of this tape tomorrow, the adjustments that we make, the corrections that we make and we’ll get better from it,” Gannon said. “That’ll be the positive from it.”

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Former GOP Arizona senator Jeff Flake endorses Kamala Harris – Washington Examiner

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Former GOP Arizona senator Jeff Flake endorses Kamala Harris – Washington Examiner


Flake has distinguished himself as one of Trump’s most vocal Republican critics. He previously endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020, and served as the administration’s ambassador to Turkey, before resigning in September. The Arizona Republican issued his official endorsement of Harris on Sunday morning, appearing on ABC News’s “This Week” shortly after to explain his reasoning, and why other Republicans should join his lead.

“Well, I think Republicans believe in the rule of law in particular, and it’s difficult to support a candidate who, having lost an election, tries to use the powers of the presidency to overturn that election that is anything but respect for the rule of law,” Flake said. “So I know that a lot of conservative Republicans feel the way I do, that you just can’t support a candidate like that.”

On terms of foreign policy, he said that Harris is “ready,” and “understands what’s going on.”

“She understands that we have real enemies abroad, but in particular, we have indispensable allies as well, and we need to support them and work with them if we’re to defeat Russia, certainly, and the growing threat of China,” Flake said. “It was really stark watching the debate the other day and hearing the former president not be able to even cheer for Ukraine.”

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Host Martha Raddatz then pressed him on immigration, saying that polling showed Harris’s stance was “simply not resonating with voters.” She asked how Harris could change voters’ minds before election day.

“I think she’s doing that,” Flake responded. “And she outlined a couple of policies where she would be more, she would be tougher on the border, particularly with asylum policies. We’ve got to have a situation where we have comprehensive reform.”

“One thing that she brings to the table is that she knows how to work on a bipartisan basis, and if we do immigration reform that endures, it’s going to have to be bipartisan,” he continued. “So I’m obviously very pleased that she would sign the legislation that was worked up in the Senate. That’s what we need to do. It needs to be bipartisan in order for it to be lasting.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Flake served as an Arizona senator from 2013 to 2019, choosing not to run for reelection after consistently low approval ratings.

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He could be vying for a Cabinet position, a possibility floated by Politico. He was appointed by Biden to be ambassador to Turkey in 2022, a post he left this month. Harris previously vowed to appoint a Republican to a Cabinet position.



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‘Awful, awful’: No. 10 Utah’s red-zone woes, second-half offensive struggles lead to 23-10 loss to Arizona

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‘Awful, awful’: No. 10 Utah’s red-zone woes, second-half offensive struggles lead to 23-10 loss to Arizona


Two third-and-11 conversions were key as Arizona handed No. 10 Utah its first loss of the season on Saturday night by a score of 23-10.

With less than 10 minutes left, right after a Tao Johnson interception led to an Isaac Wilson touchdown drive to cut the Arizona lead to just six points, Utah’s defense ran out onto the field for its most consequential series of the game.

The Utes’ defensive players whipped the sold-out Rice-Eccles Stadium crowd into a frenzy during a lengthy discussion between the referees about a holding penalty on Arizona on the kickoff, and by the time Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita finally took the field, Utah fans were at ear-splitting levels, especially on a third-and-11 from Arizona’s own 25-yard-line.

No sweat for Fifita.

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As safety-turned-linebacker Johnathan Hall crashed into his legs on the crucial third-down play, Fifita delivered his best pass of the night. The ball traveled nearly 40 yards in the air and was right on target for receiver Devin Hyatt, who snagged it for a key first down.

Two plays later, after Utah’s defense had forced another third-and-11, Fifita made an incredible on-the-run throw to an open Keyan Burnett in the back of the end zone for a 35-yard touchdown.

After the PAT, it was 23-10, and with the way Utah’s offense had played in the second half, Fifita’s touchdown toss basically sealed the game.

There were some glaring deficiencies on defense for the Utes, starting with the two third-and-11 conversions, some poor run defense in the first half (Kedrick Reescano had some strong runs) and way too many missed tackles — 15 or more, per Utah coach Kyle Whittingham’s count.

Even with those mistakes, holding an offense of Arizona’s caliber to just 23 points while missing two of your top players — linebacker Karene Reid and defensive end Connor O’Toole — would be a decent defensive performance.

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Aside from some of the defensive miscues, the Utes were doomed by an ineffective offensive performance full of missed chances in the red zone and way too many empty second-half drives.

After Utah’s win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Whittingham said that if the red zone woes continued, that it would “catch up with us.”

On Saturday, that’s exactly what happened.

Starting for the third consecutive time, true freshman quarterback Wilson led the Utes on three straight trips to the red zone to open the game.

Between the 20s, Utah’s offense was humming right along under the true freshman’s guidance, as he found former Arizona receiver Dorian Singer over and over to the tune of seven receptions for 104 yards before the first half was over.

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Micah Bernard also provided a few timely runs, showing nice field vision and speed, to complement Utah’s passing attack.

Time and time again, however, when the Utes’ offense rolled into the red zone, the play calling that led them there dried up and the execution left much to be desired.

Utah scored just three points in three trips to the red zone, going away empty on their first two possessions.

Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig gambled on the first two drives of the game instead of taking the points, electing to go for it on fourth-and-2 both times instead of taking the field goals.

On the first trip inside the 20, Ludwig called for five straight runs, and after Mike Mitchell only got a yard on third-and-3, Utah’s offensive coordinator went right back to him. On the sixth consecutive run by the Utes, Mitchell was stuffed for a turnover on downs.

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On the second drive, following a three-yard Bernard run, an incomplete Wilson pass and a four-yard Wilson scramble on third-and-6, it set up fourth-and-2.

Wilson tried a pass to Caleb Lohner — a play that has worked well in the past — but it was broken up by Tacario Davis, and the Utes left empty-handed again.

While Utah came away with three points on its third drive of the game, the 52,898 fans at sold-out Rice-Eccles Stadium grew anxious as the team crossed the 20-yard line.

They had reason to, as despite a couple of strikes from Wilson to Singer to get the Utes into scoring position, the offense fizzled once again, with a QB keeper from Wilson, a run from Bernard that went nowhere and an incomplete pass from Wilson to Money Parks.

Utah had to settle for a field goal.

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“Left points out there. We were horrible in the red zone. Awful, awful, and until we get that fixed, we’re going to continue to have problems,” Whittingham said.

Instead of potentially heading to the locker room up 21-10 if everything had gone right in the red zone, or even 17-10 if the Utes had scored touchdowns on two of the three trips, it was instead a 10-3 deficit.

“It starts with me. You got to have a better red zone package. The buck stops right here and so if we don’t have a good enough arsenal in place, enough creativity down there, then that’s something we got to look at,” Whittingham said.

“Execution — I’m not going to blame the players though, but sometimes it goes down to being a little off with your timing or just a little bit off with your execution.”

Aside from a fourth-quarter drive wherein Wilson stepped up into the pocket and delivered a 37-yard strike to Singer, which was followed by a 20-yard pass to Lohner for Utah’s lone touchdown of the night, Utah’s second-half offensive execution was poor.

Forget the first-half red zone problems — the Utes couldn’t even sniff the inside of Arizona’s 20-yard line on six of their seven second-half drives.

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Singer, who had been so productive in the first half, was mostly shut down by Arizona in the second half, with just two catches (for 51 yards) on eight targets.

“They cheat the safety to him and (Tacario Davis) shadowed him for quite a bit of the game and just like we did with Zemaiah Vaughn on (Tetairoa McMillan). They had more success doing that than we did,” Whittingham said.

Wilson struggled in the second half, completing 8 of 20 passes for 115 yards. He threw a touchdown and had two interceptions — one deep in Utah territory that led to an Arizona field goal and the other one on the final drive of the game.

“Converting in those red zones. I know better on those interceptions. I know better,” Wilson said. “I shouldn’t put the team in that situation. I felt like we were driving the ball up and down the field the whole time — run game, pass game, but red zone.”

Wilson’s final line was 20 for 40 for 280 yards, a touchdown pass and two interceptions.

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Bernard had a solid game, with 91 yards on 16 carries, but he only rushed it six times in the second half.

Postgame, like all the players, Bernard was visibly frustrated.

“I don’t get too upset, I don’t get too mad. I just almost want to just smack something right now, so I’m going to use that this whole next two weeks and when we go to (Arizona State), they gonna feel me. They gonna feel me.”

Once again, Cam Rising, still limited by his ring finger, came out for early warmups with a glove on his hand.

Rising tested out his hand by throwing the ball around about 90 minutes before kickoff, but the decision by Utah’s coaches to start Wilson came much earlier this time.

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As opposed to last week, when Wilson was informed that he would be the starter 20 minutes before game time, when Utah took the field for final, padded, warmups 45 minutes before the game Saturday, Wilson starting was seemingly set in stone.

While Rising threw the ball a little bit during Utah’s final warmups, when the time came for the quarterbacks to work with the offensive line, it was Wilson taking the No. 1 reps and sophomore Brandon Rose, who appeared to be Wilson’s backup on Saturday night, taking the second-team reps.

Though he was dressed in his full uniform with a glove and wearing his usual knee brace, Rising didn’t throw much, if at all, during the final walkthrough. From at least an hour before the game, if not more, it was clear — this was going to be Wilson’s game.

Postgame, Whittingham said Rising was “really close” to playing, but that didn’t provide much comfort to Utah fans following the first loss of the season.

While one loss doesn’t derail Utah’s Big 12 championship hopes, it makes the margin of error in the remaining seven games that much narrower.

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Wilson has kept Utah afloat during 2.5 of the 3.5 games Rising has missed, but for this team to achieve its ultimate goal, it needs its veteran quarterback back under center.

“If there is a silver lining here, we’ve got a week off and hopefully he’s ready to go by then,” Whittingham said.

We’ll see if Rising is back at quarterback in two weeks, as Utah takes on Arizona State after a much-needed bye week.



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