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Kari Lake closing gap in new Arizona Senate poll

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Kari Lake closing gap in new Arizona Senate poll


Republican Kari Lake is closing in on Democrat Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, according to the results of a poll released just days before Election Day.

The poll released on Friday by YouGov/The Times of London/SAY24 finds Lake trailing Gallego by 5 percentage points. A 49 percent plurality of registered Arizona voters said that they were backing Gallego, while 44 percent chose Lake. The poll was conducted from October 25 to October 31 and has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Lake was performing considerably worse in a poll released by YouGov/CBS News on October 18, with the Republican candidate trailing the Democrat by 9 points among likely voters—54 percent of respondents said they would vote for Gallego and 45 percent preferred Lake. The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 16 and has a 3.3 percent margin of error.

Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, still has a lead over Lake in the vast majority of polls. However, the congressman has seen his advantage shrink in the closing weeks of the contest, with some recent surveys suggesting that the race is effectively tied.

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Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake is pictured during an event in Morristown, Arizona, on October 5. Recent polls suggest that Lake is closing the gap with Congressman Ruben Gallego, her Democratic Senate election opponent.

REBECCA NOBLE/AFP via Getty Images

An AtlasIntel poll conducted on October 30 and October 31 and released on Friday showed Lake with a tiny 1 point advantage among likely voters. However, the survey was one of only three public polls showing the Republican with an advantage during the entire election cycle, all by just 1 point.

In comparison, Gallego has had 15 different polls showing him with a double-digit lead over Lake. A RABA Research survey released on Monday and conducted from October 25 to October 27 showed the Democratic congressman with a massive 15 point edge among registered Arizona voters.

Newsweek reached out for comment to the Lake and Gallego campaigns via email on Friday night.

A spokesperson for the Lake campaign previously told Newsweek that “the momentum is with” Lake and former President Donald Trump heading into the November 5 election, with the campaign expressing confidence “that Arizonans will deliver both Trump and Lake a victory.”

Lake has polled significantly behind Trump in polls despite frequently touting her devotion to the ex-president. Trump was leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by just 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, in Friday’s YouGov/The Times of London/SAY24 poll.

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After narrowly losing Arizona’s gubernatorial election to Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs in 2022, Lake echoed Trump’s post-2020 election denialism by claiming without evidence that the contest had been “stolen” while launching a series of failed lawsuits to overturn the outcome.

Lake continued to refuse to admit that she lost to Hobbs during an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday, lashing out at Collins for “looking backward” after being asked at least seven times whether she would accept the reality of her defeat.



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The heat is over (fingers crossed). Here’s AZ’s record summer by the numbers

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The heat is over (fingers crossed). Here’s AZ’s record summer by the numbers


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As temperatures in Phoenix finally drop closer to normal — or even below average — for this time of year, the desert heat has likely cooled until next spring. But this year was one for the record books.

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America’s hottest city broke record after record this summer — the hottest summer on record — and well into autumn, some set only a year ago and others just the day before. 

Meteorologists attribute Arizona’s hot summer to weather patterns, a dry monsoon, climate change and Phoenix’s urban heat island — a phenomenon where roads, buildings and infrastructure absorb and re-emit the sun’s heat, making cities hotter. 

“This year, while we may not have had quite extremes in terms of daily high temperatures, we’ve seen the temperatures persist,” said Sean Benedict, the lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Phoenix. “This year we had a record-hot June, so it started early and it persisted.” 

A high–pressure system, sometimes referred to as a heat dome, settled over the Southwest for most of the summer and into the fall, trapping hot air below and reducing cloud cover. The monsoon was also sporadic, providing little rainfall to alleviate temperatures. 

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Phoenix wasn’t alone in breaking records. Arizona cities like Flagstaff, Yuma, Kingman and Winslow had their hottest summers on record and Tucson and Douglas tied with previous records.

Above-normal temperatures have been observed across the U.S. from summer through the fall, with the Southwest observing temperatures from 10 to 20 degrees higher than normal in some cases. 

Climatologists are concerned by the frequency of new records and believe the trend is further evidence of the role climate change plays in above-average temperatures and extreme weather. 

“The things that were rare are becoming less rare,” said Michael Crimmins, climatologist for the University of Arizona. “Everybody knows it’s hot here in the summer, and you think ‘Well, it can’t be that hot again next summer,’ and then it is.”

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Hayleigh Evans writes about extreme weather and related topics for The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Email her with story tips at hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.



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Arizona men’s basketball: Motiejus Krivas questionable for season opener, Emmanuel Stephen could redshirt

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Arizona men’s basketball: Motiejus Krivas questionable for season opener, Emmanuel Stephen could redshirt


Arizona may have its full compliment of scholarship players available for Monday’s season opener against Canisius, something that wasn’t the case for either of its exhibition games or even the Red-Blue Showcase in early October.

Whether the Wildcats want to use all 11, though, is still to be determined.

UA coach Tommy Lloyd said sophomore center Motiejus Krivas, who missed both preseason games due to an ankle injury, has practiced this week and could be available for the opener. The 7-foot-2 Estonian was projected to be in Arizona’s starting lineup this season, and in his absence 6-foot-8 Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka has started at the 5.

“I’m not gonna rush that thing,” Lloyd said Thursday about Krivas, who averaged 5.4 points and 4.2 rebounds in 12.1 minutes per game last season. “When he’s ready, we’re ready for him. If (trainer) Justin (Kokoskie) tells me he could play 25 minutes on Monday, I’d love to have him for 25 minutes. I want him back as soon as we can get him, as long Justin and the doctors feel like he’s built for the long haul, that’s the main thing I’m interested in.”

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With Krivas out, Awaka has started with redshirt sophomore Henri Veesaar being first off the bench at center. Veesaar averaged 15.5 points in the two exhibition games, while Awaka averaged 13 points and 12 rebounds albeit against massively undersized competition.

Also seeing time in the exhibitions was freshman center Emmanuel Stephen, who in a combined 21 minutes showed both his upside and his rawness. It’s that latter trait that has made him a candidate to redshirt the 2024-25 season, a decision that Lloyd said has yet to be made.

“Like anything here, the player is going to have input,” Lloyd said. “We’ll let him make the choice.”

Using redshirts is something Lloyd has made no secret he’s in favor of, sitting out both Veesaar and Dylan Anderson last season though Veesaar’s redshirt was mostly due to a preseason elbow injury. Anderson has since transferred to Boise State, where he’s expected to start.

“I’m happy Dylan Anderson redshirted last year, I really am,” Lloyd said. “I’m so happy for him. He’s got three good years at Boise to make a huge impact. I would have felt horrible if he would have played and only played limited minutes and then burned a year and now he has only two years to play.

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“I wish we would have redshirted Filip (Borovicanin) for him, I wish we would have redshirted Adama (bal) and those guys would have had another year. Anything you can do to lengthen those guys’ careers is a good thing.”

In order for Stephen to redshirt he cannot play in any regular season or postseason games, unlike in football where players can appear in up to four regular season games and still retain a year of eligibility.

“I think it would be great if they could come up with something in basketball,” Lloyd said. “I think eventually they’re going to have to. I mean, obviously football has done and it’s made sense. I just think for health and safety, for personal development. We’re coming out of an era where guys got five years of eligibility. What’s wrong with giving guys whatever, whatever you want to call it, four years plus nine games, whatever the ratio is?”



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Court orders Arizona to release list of voters whose citizenship hasn't been verified

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Court orders Arizona to release list of voters whose citizenship hasn't been verified


PHOENIX — Arizona’s secretary of state office must release a list of tens of thousands of voters who were mistakenly classified as having access to the full ballot because of a coding glitch, a Maricopa County Superior Court judge ruled Thursday.

Secretary of State Adrian Fontes’ office initially denied a public records requests for the list that was filed by America First Legal, a group run by Stephen Miller, a onetime adviser to former President Donald Trump. Fontes’ office cited concerns over the accuracy of the list and the safety of the voters included.

Judge Scott Blaney said the court received no credible evidence showing the information would be misused or encourage violence or harassment against the voters whose citizenship hasn’t been verified. Blaney set a deadline of noon Monday for Fontes’ office to release a list of 98,000 voters and information Fontes relied on when announcing in early October that even more voters had been impacted — for a total of 218,000.

Arizona is among the most closely watched states given its presidential battleground status, and both campaigns have ramped up their presence in recent weeks to court undecided voters. The coding glitch doesn’t impact federal races. But it led to a decision from the state Supreme Court in September that the misclassified voters — representing about 5% of all undecided voters — still could vote the full ballot even though officials haven’t confirmed whether they are U.S. citizens.

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That number of voters could tip the scales in tight local and state races, as well as fiercely competitive ballot measures on abortion and immigration. The voters are nearly evenly registered as Democrats, Republicans or with neither of those parties.

Fontes has said he has the list of 98,000 voters but not a more expansive one despite declaring many more were affected. His office said Thursday that it’s reviewing Blaney’s decision and weighing its options.

Blaney restricted Strong Communities Foundation and its legal counsel, America First Legal, from distributing information they receive from Fontes’ office ahead of Election Day on Tuesday to anyone but county recorders, the Arizona Senate president and speaker of the Arizona House and members of the elections committee.

America First Legal’s counsel, James Rogers, said in a statement Thursday that the group is hopeful the records could be used to verify the citizenship of voters on the list.

“It is unfortunate that Secretary Fontes so aggressively opposed our common-sense efforts to help restore trust in our state’s election system,” Rogers said.

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The ruling also requires Fontes’ office to release communications and data transmissions with a number of government agencies, including the Arizona Department of Transportation and Gov. Katie Hobbs’ office.

The misclassification of voters from federal-only to full-ballot voters was blamed on a glitch in state databases involving drivers’ licenses and the Arizona Motor Vehicle Division.

Arizona is unique among states in that it requires voters to prove their citizenship to participate in local and state races. Those who haven’t but have sworn to it under the penalty of law are allowed to participate only in federal elections.

The state considers drivers’ licenses issued after October 1996 to be valid proof of citizenship. However, the system coding error marked 218,000 voters who obtained licenses before 1996, mistakenly, as full-ballot voters, state officials said.



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