Republican Kari Lake is closing in on Democrat Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, according to the results of a poll released just days before Election Day.
The poll released on Friday by YouGov/The Times of London/SAY24 finds Lake trailing Gallego by 5 percentage points. A 49 percent plurality of registered Arizona voters said that they were backing Gallego, while 44 percent chose Lake. The poll was conducted from October 25 to October 31 and has a 4.4 percent margin of error.
Lake was performing considerably worse in a poll released by YouGov/CBS News on October 18, with the Republican candidate trailing the Democrat by 9 points among likely voters—54 percent of respondents said they would vote for Gallego and 45 percent preferred Lake. The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 16 and has a 3.3 percent margin of error.
Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, still has a lead over Lake in the vast majority of polls. However, the congressman has seen his advantage shrink in the closing weeks of the contest, with some recent surveys suggesting that the race is effectively tied.
An AtlasIntel poll conducted on October 30 and October 31 and released on Friday showed Lake with a tiny 1 point advantage among likely voters. However, the survey was one of only three public polls showing the Republican with an advantage during the entire election cycle, all by just 1 point.
In comparison, Gallego has had 15 different polls showing him with a double-digit lead over Lake. A RABA Research survey released on Monday and conducted from October 25 to October 27 showed the Democratic congressman with a massive 15 point edge among registered Arizona voters.
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Lake and Gallego campaigns via email on Friday night.
A spokesperson for the Lake campaign previously told Newsweek that “the momentum is with” Lake and former President Donald Trump heading into the November 5 election, with the campaign expressing confidence “that Arizonans will deliver both Trump and Lake a victory.”
Lake has polled significantly behind Trump in polls despite frequently touting her devotion to the ex-president. Trump was leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by just 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, in Friday’s YouGov/The Times of London/SAY24 poll.
After narrowly losing Arizona’s gubernatorial election to Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs in 2022, Lake echoed Trump’s post-2020 election denialism by claiming without evidence that the contest had been “stolen” while launching a series of failed lawsuits to overturn the outcome.
Lake continued to refuse to admit that she lost to Hobbs during an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Monday, lashing out at Collins for “looking backward” after being asked at least seven times whether she would accept the reality of her defeat.
Arizona remains one of the fastest-growing states in the country, but new migration data suggests that growth is starting to level out.
According to the latest numbers from U-Haul, Arizona ranked number seven nationwide for growth in 2025. While that is down one spot from the year before, it marks the sixth consecutive year the state has remained in the top ten.
The rankings are based on more than 2.5 million one-way moving transactions for the Arizona-based company.
What stands out in the data is how close those numbers are.
In 2025, 50.3% of U-Haul’s one-way moves came into Arizona, while 49.7% moved out. In practical terms, that means for nearly every family moving into the state, there is another one packing up and leaving.
That does not mean Arizona is losing population. However, it does suggest the margin of growth is getting thinner than it has been in recent years.
Even with that shift, the greater Phoenix metro area continues to be a major driver of growth. Phoenix ranked fifth nationwide among U.S. metro areas, fueled by job creation and new housing across the Valley.
U-Haul leaders point to continued development tied to major employers, including chip manufacturing and data centers, as well as ongoing residential construction, as reasons Phoenix remains a top destination.
Experts who study migration trends say when in-migration and out-migration numbers get this close, it can be a sign that affordability pressures are starting to play a role, especially when it comes to housing.
The latest data does not point to a mass exodus, but it does show Arizona entering a period of transition, balancing opportunity and growth with affordability concerns.
The 2026 Arizona Legacy Races in Buckeye, Ariz., are ringing in a new year for futurity horses December 30 – January 6, at the Buckeye Equestrian & Events Center. Formerly known as the MVP Futurity and Greg Olson Futurity, these two races have been a staple in many professional trainers’ schedules for decades. This year, the two events boast $22,000 in added money.
Linzie Lindsey and Fame Dancin Yola claimed the Round 1 win with a 17.577 for $1,959. Barbara Merrill rode TKW Eye Am Tess to the 2D win.
After finishing out of the 1D money in Round 1, Loralee Ward and Dark Honey ran the fastest time of the futurity with a 17.030 to claim the Round 2 win. The duo also earned the Futurity Reserve Championship for $1,652.
Lindsey and Fame Dancin Yola finished second in Round 2 with a 17.164, adding $1,603 to their futurity earnings and claiming the Futurity Championship for another $2,019.
Jenna Duhon and PMC AintSheBeautiful earned the Round 2 2D win. In the 2D Average, it was Estella Martin and Quanahs Kingdom claiming the win.
Round 1 of a very tough Derby went to Jana Bean and Feature This Goodbye with a 17.268. 2025 futurity standout Blissful Version and Lora Nichols finished second in Round 1 with a 17.282, won Round 2 with a 17.032, and claimed the Average win.
“Buddy” and Nichols were in contention for the highest money-earning futurity horse of the previous season, before the cancellation of the last two major events of the season due to EHV-1. By $7 million sire Winners Version, Buddy banked over $300,000 in his futurity year.
Megan McLeod-Sprague and Seis Corona (“Jagger”) were hot off the 2025 National Finals Rodeo. The duo won the Roohide Hot Rod with a 17.004 for $1,368. They also earned the Friday Open 1D win for $1,083.
With the first 16-second run of the weekend, Sherry Cervi and MP Meter My Fame won the Saturday Open 1D with a 16.969.
Rita Cheeney and HP Dash Ta Fairfax ran the only other sub-17-second run of the weekend, with a 16.996 that took the top spot in Sunday’s Open 1D.
Nichols and Buddy doubled down on their derby earnings, placing deep in the Open 1D both days, as well as the Roohide Hot Rod, and Big Time Boss.
Youth competitor Tabitha Dyal also had an outstanding weekend, earning Open 1D money Friday, Saturday, and Sunday aboard Slym Shady. She swept the Youth 1D on Slym Shady and earned Open 1D, Open 2D, and Youth 1D checks on Promise Me Fame Guys and Smooth Operraider. Dyal wrapped up her weekend with several checks in the Big Time Boss.
Authorities say a prominent California agriculture heir is accused of traveling to Arizona to kill his estranged wife amid a bitter divorce, a case now drawing national attention for its cross-state trail and high-profile ties.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Hamas builds new terror regime in Gaza, recruiting teens amid problematic election
Indianapolis Colts playoffs: Updated elimination scenario, AFC standings, playoff picture for Week 17
For those who help the poor, 2025 goes down as a year of chaos
Podcast: The 2025 EU-US relationship explained simply
Instacart ends AI pricing test that charged shoppers different prices for the same items
Apple, Google and others tell some foreign employees to avoid traveling out of the country
ChatGPT’s GPT-5.2 is here, and it feels rushed
‘Unlucky’ Honduran woman arrested after allegedly running red light and crashing into ICE vehicle
