Arizona baseball had won five of its last seven games, which included three road wins, entering Friday evening’s matchup with Kansas State.
Arizona
Arizona vs. BYU is a battle of elite defenses. Which one is better?
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By almost every statistical measure, the three best defenses in the Big 12 Conference so far this season belong to Arizona, BYU and Texas Tech.
Two of those teams happen to be facing each other on Saturday, Oct. 11, at Arizona Stadium.
Which one actually has the better defense?
That’s what we’re going to explore in this week’s “Cats Stats.” The answer might surprise you.
At first blush, one would give the edge to the Cougars. They’re first in the league in total defense (239.6 ypg) and second in scoring defense (12.2 ppg). The Wildcats are third (244.8) and fourth (15.6), respectively.
Even if you adjust the latter to account for the pick-six against Arizona last week, the Wildcats are still two points worse per game than the Cougars.
But we like to dig beneath the surface here at Cats Stats Inc. Other numbers better illustrate the effectiveness of the UA defense under Danny Gonzales.
The statistic most often cited to measure a defense’s worth is yards per play. Arizona has the edge in that category — over everyone else in the conference.
The UA has allowed 3.92 yards per play. Texas Tech is second at 3.94. BYU is third at 4.06. No one else is under 4.50.
If you separate run and pass defense, you can argue that the advantages each side has basically cancel each other out. But we would argue that the gap between BYU and Arizona against the run is narrower than the gap between the Wildcats and Cougars against the pass.
BYU allows 92.2 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per attempt; Arizona is at 96.6 and 3.0. Not much of a difference.
The Wildcats have the No. 1 pass defense in the conference in terms of yards allowed per game (147.2) and per attempt (4.9). The Cougars are barely behind them in the former (147.4). They’re nearly a full yard behind in the latter (5.8).
Arizona also has a sizable edge in completion percentage allowed (51.3% vs. 57.0%) and sacks per game (2.6 vs. 2.0). Overall, the Wildcats spend more time in the opposition’s backfield, averaging a league-best 8.60 tackles for loss per game. BYU is sixth at 6.20.
Conversion case
Still not convinced? Let’s dig deeper.
Two areas that are critical to team success are third-down and red-zone efficiency. Arizona’s defense has been better than BYU’s, both through five games.
The Wildcats have allowed opponents to convert 25.7% of their third downs. Only Texas Tech, at 25.4%, has been better in the Big 12. BYU is third at 29.7%.
(In a related development, Arizona has been slightly better at first-down prevention. The UA has allowed 13.2 first downs per game, tied with Texas Tech for the fewest in the Big 12. BYU is third at 14.8.)
Arizona is No. 1 in the conference at keeping the opposition out of the end zone once it crosses the 20-yard line. The Wildcats have allowed a touchdown on only 42.9% of opponents’ red-zone opportunities. The Cougars are tied for fourth in the league at 50%.
Who’s better at taking the ball away? Again, at least so far, it’s been Arizona.
The Wildcats average 2.2 takeaways per game, second in the conference behind Texas Tech (2.4). The Cougars are fourth at 1.8.
Even if you include fourth-down stops — Gonzales classifies those as takeaways, worthy of footballs being punctured by the Turnover Sword — Arizona has the edge. The Wildcats have 18 combined takeaways and fourth-down stops, an average of 3.6 per game. The Cougars have 15, or 3.0 per game.
BYU has been better at preventing big plays, but the difference is negligible. The Cougars have allowed 13 plays of 20-plus yards, per cfbstats.com, or 2.6 per game. The Wildcats have allowed 14 — 2.8 per game.
The real deal?
Both defenses have been elite at almost all of the above. BYU has a more extensive track record; the Cougars finished first in the Big 12 in total defense and yards allowed per play last season.
As such, it’s reasonable to believe that what BYU has accomplished so far on defense is real — and wonder whether Arizona is due for some regression. The Wildcats are new to this shutdown business, after all.
Skeptics also might question Arizona’s schedule so far. “U of A hasn’t played anybody.” About that …
We looked at three websites that calculate strength of schedule: ESPN, Sagarin and Massey. Arizona’s average SOS on those sites entering this weekend was 91. BYU’s was … also 91.
Both have faced an FCS opponent from the Big Sky Conference — Portland State (BYU) and Weber State (Arizona). Both have faced a Group of Five foe — East Carolina (BYU) and Hawaii (Arizona). Both have faced a Power Four opponent — Stanford (BYU) and Kansas State (Arizona). Both have played two conference games.
BYU has played one more road game; the ECU contest was in Greenville. Counterpoint: Arizona blew out Hawaii, which defeated Stanford the previous week. And although Stanford has a better record (2-3) than Kansas State (2-4), KSU is considered superior by most metrics. For example, ESPN’s FPI ranks K-State 43rd and Stanford 86th.
BYU coach Kalani Sitake, for one, doesn’t need any convincing. He believes Arizona’s defense is legit.
“Danny’s done a great job with the defense,” Sitake told reporters on Oct. 6. “They tackle well. They’re aggressive.
“Danny’s done a great job everywhere he’s been. He’s from that same lineage as Rocky Long, Bronco Mendenhall and them. So we’re very familiar with the defense.
“But the way he’s able to combine their base coverages with the pressures — he calls a really good game, and he can make things really difficult for any offense. So we’re going to have to be at our best.”
In these four-round projections, the Arizona Cardinals don’t get a tackle until the fourth round.
We are just days away from the 2026 NFL draft, and that means some final mock drafts. What direction will the draft take the Arizona Cardinals?
Draft Wire’s Curt Popejoy put together a four-round mock draft for the Cardinals. They go defense early but rebuild the offense for 2026 and moving forward, including landing their potential franchise quarterback.
Cardinals 4-round mock draft
Here are the players in the first four rounds Popejoy projects for Arizona.
- Round 1: Ohio State EDGE/LB Arvell Reese
- Round 2: Alabama QB Ty Simpson
- Round 3: Clemson WR Antonio Williams
- Round 4: Florida OT Austin Barber
What we think of the picks
The Cardinals want to trade out of the third pick and draft a tackle, so not getting a tackle until Round 4 seems unlikely, although they did meet with Barber. They do have options at right tackle for 2026 already on the roster.
Reese would be a great pick if they don’t trade back, as they badly need pass-rushing help off the edge.
Drafting Simpson seems inevitable at this point, so it has to be in a mock draft, although the feeling is they will need to go up into Round 1 again to get him.
Williams has speed and is almost six feet tall, but he does have short arms.
Get more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire’s Jess Root and others by listening to the latest on the Rise Up, See Red podcast. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or Apple podcasts.
Due to significant injuries to the CB position last year which includes a shoulder surgery for Terrion Arnold, the Lions CB position scored a 6/10 need on my Lions Defensive Draft Need Rankings. Thus, an early-round selection of a young, healthy prospect like Keith Abney would not come as a surprise. He enters the draft with very low medical concern level.
Here is the excerpt from my medical report on Keith Abney:
(Ages in parentheses are at start of 2026 season and are factored into the concern level. Injury info and ages based on available public information are unverified and subject to update. Games played data courtesy of sports-reference.com.)
Keith Abney, CB (21) – Arizona State
Projected round 2-3. #43 on Jeff Risdon board Feb 19.
Concern level 0/10
There is an isolated report of a hand injury but no corroborating information. Even if the hand injury is true, that’s of minimal to no long-term concern.
His availability in his final two seasons has been perfect. Overall, Abney appears to be medically clean and is at an excellent age.
He finished college with 6 INT and 21 PBU.
For more Lions coverage, follow us on X, @TheLionsWire, and give our Facebook page a like. Follow Jimmy on X, @JimmyLiaoMD
In the first game of the series, Arizona (14-23, 5-11 Big 12) battled in a low-scoring affair but fell short in a 2-1 loss to Kansas State (24-12, 8-8 Big 12). The Wildcats from Tucson held the Wildcats from Manhattan at bay for a good majority of the night.
Given that Kansas State leads the Big 12 in conference play in batting, on-base percentage, and slugging, Arizona had a rather good performance, but it was not enough.
Owen Kramkowski pitched seven scoreless innings before allowing the first Kansas State run in the top of the eight. He finished with six strikeouts and kept the high octane Wildcats at bay.
“I thought the defense played well behind him too,” said head coach Chip Hale. “There’s a lot of ground balls, and we made plays where we were positioned in good places, and he was pitching in the eighth inning. That’s unbelievable.”
Garrett Hicks (3-1) came in to try and stop the bleeding for the Wildcats and did so by not allowing Kansas State to take the lead in the eighth. It was in the ninth when the lead was surrendered.
It took until the sixth inning but the first run was scored by Arizona. Andrew Cain singled to left field and after Maddox Mihalakis flew out, it was Beau Sylvester bringing Cain home with a triple through right center field.
Sylvester extended his hitting streak to eight games and it proved to be not enough to get Arizona to the finish line.
Kansas State tied the game at the top of the eight when back to back singles got runners on at first and third. Then a passed ball allowed the third base runner to come home.
Arizona had a chance to retake the lead in the bottom of the ninth after Cain singled to deep right field. With Sylvester back at the plate, it seemed like it was a perfect set up.
A wild pitch nearly got past Kansas State and Cain tried to take advantage of it and steal home. However, Kansas State was able to corral the pitch and get Cain out at home.
AJ Evasco started the ninth inning with a double for Kansas State and back to back fly outs eventually got him home to give Kansas State the lead and the win.
With eight players being left on base, Arizona will need to bring those runners in more often than not if they want to tie the series Saturday afternoon.
As a young team, the Wildcats have had to walk a very tight line between disappointment and dejection and will need to continue handling these losses with grace if it wants to turn a corner.
“It’s the way it goes, it’s baseball,” said Hale. “If we don’t handle it, we will come out tomorrow and won’t be ready to go, so hopefully they handle it.”
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