Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is in for a close race against Republican challengers in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new poll.

Newsweek reached out to Hobbs and the Republican candidates’ campaigns for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Arizona emerged as a key swing state over the past decade, with both parties scoring statewide victories. Last November, President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly six points, but Democrat Ruben Gallego eked out a win in the Senate race, a sign of how competitive the state can still be.

Hobbs, first elected in 2022, is up for reelection next year. Democrats are optimistic about their chances in the midterms. Historically, the president’s party loses seats, and Trump’s approval remains low.

A series of Democratic victories in recent elections has also fueled hopes about a blue wave in the midterms. But forecasters still view the race as competitive for both parties, and the Emerson College poll released Friday underscores just how close it may be.

What To Know

Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake in 2022, a year that was generally stronger for Republicans. Prior to the election, Hobbs served as Arizona’s secretary of state and as a state legislator starting in 2011.

Several Republicans are vying to challenge her, including Arizona Representatives Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, as well as attorney Karrin Taylor Robson. Trump has endorsed both Biggs and Robson.

The Emerson poll showed Hobbs with a slight lead over each of the Republican candidates.

She held a single-point lead over Biggs (44 percent to 43 percent) and Robson (43 percent to 42 percent), and a five-point lead over Schweikert (44 percent to 39 percent), according to the poll. It surveyed 850 registered voters from November 8 to 10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

Biggs held a lead in the primary, with 50 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him. Meanwhile, Robson and Schweikert held 17 percent and 8 percent support, respectively, in the primary, the poll found.

Other polls have also painted a picture of a close race. A Noble Predictive Insights poll, which surveyed 948 registered voters from August 11 to 18, showed Hobbs with a two-point lead over both Biggs (39 percent to 37 percent) and Robson (40 percent to 38 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

In 2022, Hobbs defeated Lake by less than a single percentage point (50.3 percent to 49.7 percent) in what was one of the closest races across the country. Arizona was also one of the closest states at the presidential level in 2020—former President Joe Biden carried it by less than half a percentage point.

In 2024, however, Trump gained back ground in the state, winning 52.2 percent of the vote to former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 46.7 percent.

What People Are Saying

Spencer Kimball, director of the Emerson College poll, wrote in a report: “In a matchup between Hobbs and Biggs, voters who say the economy is their top issue break for Hobbs, 45% to 41%, while those who find immigration to be the top issue break for Biggs, 81% to 6%.”

President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in April: “I like Karrin Taylor Robson of Arizona a lot, and when she asked me to Endorse her, with nobody else running, I Endorsed her, and was happy to do so.

“When Andy Biggs decided to run for Governor, quite unexpectedly, I had a problem — Two fantastic candidates, two terrific people, two wonderful champions, and it is therefore my Great Honor TO GIVE MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT TO BOTH. Either one will never let you down. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

What Happens Next

The Arizona race is likely to become closely watched—and expensive—as both parties try to win over voters over the coming year. Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies the race as a pure toss-up.

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — A conservative-leaning think tank is suing Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes over her office’s refusal to fully disclose records related to allegations of rental price-fixing involving major landlords and a property management software company.

The Goldwater Institute filed a public records lawsuit against Mayes, demanding she reveal how many people have filed complaints related to the allegations.

In a news release, the think tank said Mayes has refused to state how many Arizonans claimed the alleged conspiracy actually harmed them.

In February 2024, the AG’s office sued nine landlords, including Avenue5, Greystar, RPM Living, and Weider. State officials also named RealPage, a property management software company, in the lawsuit, alleging it colluded with others to inflate rental prices across metro Phoenix.

The Goldwater Institute said it had requested full complaint records from Mayes’ office but reportedly only received a numerical count of complaints, without the underlying records.

“I firmly believe in vindicating Arizona’s Public Records Law, which exists to ensure that government remains accountable to the people it serves,” said Michael Bloom, an attorney for the American Freedom Network, which is representing the Goldwater Institute. “Transparency is the cornerstone of public trust.”

Goldwater officials said the AG’s office claimed the information was confidential, but they argue it is not protected under public records law.

The think tank also noted that Mayes’ lawsuit mirrors similar cases filed by other Democratic attorneys general, and partnered with a private law firm to pursue the case, similar to approaches taken in those other states.

Last year, the Justice Department filed an antitrust lawsuit against RealPage, accusing it of an illegal scheme that allowed landlords to coordinate and hike up rent prices.

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GLOBE, AZ (AZFamily) — Arizona lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have sent a letter to President Donald Trump, urging him to swiftly approve Gov. Katie Hobbs’ request for a major disaster declaration for Gila and Mohave counties.

The move brings hope to communities like Globe, which are grappling with the aftermath of destructive and deadly floods in September and October.

Globe Mayor Al Gameros expressed his appreciation for the bipartisan effort.

“It’s amazing that letter was written in this shorter period of time,” Gameros said. “I’m glad that it’s a bipartisan letter. I’m glad that it’s urging the president to immediately sign this and not delay it, because it is important to our rural community.”

Included in the correspondence is a newly released damage assessment compiled by FEMA, the state, and local leaders.

The assessment of the two counties details significant destruction, including that 312 homes were damaged, with 64 destroyed, 89 suffering major damage, and 159 receiving minor damage. The total estimated loss in dollars is $33,579,081.

Gameros noted the challenges communities face in securing aid.

“We (other mayors) tried to learn, at the same time, learning what the complexity of filing for reimbursement,” he said.

He explained that while the state will reimburse towns up to 75% of costs, federal approval could mean up to 90% is paid back.

Now, Gameros is anxiously awaiting the Trump administration’s decision, hoping that if the disaster declaration is approved, the process won’t be slow.

“That would really put a hurt in our community as far as us being able to move forward,” he said.

In the meantime, he said they have restaurants open in Globe and urges Arizonans to pay them a visit.

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