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Women’s college basketball debate: Which teams have a shot at winning the NCAA Tournament?

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Women’s college basketball debate: Which teams have a shot at winning the NCAA Tournament?

The Athletic’s debate series features two writers breaking down a topic. In this edition, Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman debate which teams are capable of winning the national championship.

Ben Pickman: We’re less than two weeks away from Selection Sunday and the whole world caring about seed lines, bracket draws and Cinderellas. Before March Madness begins, let’s undergo an exercise to predict the teams we think have a shot at winning this year’s national title before seeing the matchups. We’ve been talking about the parity across the women’s basketball landscape throughout the season. Four teams have been No. 1 in the AP poll, tying the record most recently set in 2021.

Champions often have commonalities. Over the last 10 NCAA Tournaments, only one winner (Notre Dame in 2017-18) has been outside the top-10 NET rating. Only two champions, that Fighting Irish team and 2016-17 South Carolina, have been outside the top-10 in defensive rating.

So, Sabreena, how many teams do you think have a legitimate chance at cutting down the nets come the evening of April 7?

Sabreena Merchant: There are five teams I can envision holding that trophy — as in, I don’t have to stretch my imagination to see any of these teams winning six games in the NCAA Tournament.

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UConn is the betting favorite, and it’s the team with the most additional upside in the tournament because the Huskies don’t play their stars a ton during the regular season. Texas is the AP No. 1 team and elite on both ends of the floor. USC has the best player in the country, plus an outstanding defense. Notre Dame has a dominant backcourt and beat each of the previous three teams during the regular season.

My shakiest inner-circle national title choice is probably South Carolina.

Pickman: Oooh! Why do you say that?

Merchant: The Gamecocks’ frontcourt still concerns me. Without Ashlyn Watkins, they’re a little thin in the post and a little small. Taller centers have given them difficulty, including the Taylor Jones/Kyla Oldacre duo from Texas, Kentucky’s Clara Strack, and even UConn’s Jana El Alfy in spurts. That’s a more significant weakness than the other four title contenders have. Plus, Raven Johnson and Bree Hall haven’t been as consistent as last season.

Pickman: That may be true, but South Carolina is still No. 1 in defensive rating, according to Her Hoop Stats. The Gamecocks feature an experienced backcourt and coach, and they’re efficient on offense. Though their frontcourt might not be as good as last year (or previous years), it’s also notable that South Carolina is in the nation’s top 15 in turnovers per game (averaging just 12), and is sixth, per HHS, in foul rate. Avoiding turnovers and fouls makes a recipe for success in March.

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Merchant: All those elements push South Carolina into Tier 1, but if I had to pick a Final Four without looking at the bracket, the Gamecocks would be on the outside looking in.

Do you think I’m being too restrictive? Does anyone else warrant title consideration for you?

Pickman: I have another school on my title shortlist. UCLA spent the most weeks (12) at No. 1 this season. They’re in the top five in offensive and defensive rating; they have arguably the most dominant post player in the country in Lauren Betts; and they boast experience in the backcourt. I picked the Bruins to win the title last year for similar reasons. On paper, yet again, they have the résumé of a national title contender.

Merchant: On paper, I agree with you about UCLA, but the Bruins don’t come through in big games. Beating South Carolina earlier in the year suggested they had turned a corner, but they finished the season in less than inspiring fashion and were essentially noncompetitive in their regular-season finale against USC — which doubled as the Big Ten title game.

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Familiar demons haunt UCLA in another loss to USC

Pickman: All fair. Perhaps I’m holding on to their victory over South Carolina too much. Plus, after the loss to USC, coach Cori Close seemed to acknowledge the need for some kind of shakeup in critical games. Maybe I’m betting on them doing some soul-searching in the leadup to the NCAA Tournament. I could, yet again, look foolish in a month.

LSU was on my short title contender list as of two weeks ago, but losses to Alabama and Ole Miss (albeit the latter without Flau’jae Johnson) have dampened my expectations. Johnson is out through the SEC tournament, which gives me pause. And though LSU is No. 2 nationally in free throw attempts, its backcourt — apart from Johnson — is inexperienced and has been inconsistent throughout the year.

Merchant: I’d be surprised if the Tigers even made the Final Four because they rely so much on their top three players. Kim Mulkey’s track record in the NCAA Tournament is impressive, but I don’t think this is the year she adds another banner to her collection.

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Pickman: Even without LSU, there might be more than 10 teams that could make the Final Four. History says that unlike national champions, Final Four participants can be elite at either offense or defense and struggle on the other end of the floor. (Think Iowa of the past two seasons and Oregon in 2018-19.) TCU falls into that bucket for me, as the Horned Frogs are No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 35 in defensive rating. They’re the oldest team in the country, top 10 in blocks and turnovers per game and No. 1 in 3-pointers made. It’s hard to imagine the Horned Frogs going from winning their first Big 12 title to winning a national title — TCU has never even made a Sweet 16, let alone Final Four — but this has been a historic year for the program.

Merchant: As long as we’re on the subject of long shots, another Big 12 team interests me by being elite on one end of the floor. That’s West Virginia. “Press” Virginia has the nation’s best defense thanks to the Mountaineers’ full-court pressure. With the short turnaround of the NCAA Tournament, this team could produce upsets. We saw West Virginia nearly take down Caitlin Clark’s Hawkeyes in Iowa City during the 2024 second round, and the defense has only gotten stouter in the interim. Depending on the draw — because big centers generally wreck them — the Mountaineers could make some noise.

Pickman: We agree that Mountaineers could pull off some upsets early in the bracket. However, of the teams that have made the last five Final Fours and had a significant offense-defense disparity, only Arizona in 2020-21 has made it as a defense-first team.

Merchant: Maybe the teams we should keep an eye on are Florida State and Vanderbilt. We’ve already seen Ta’Niya Latson obliterate the defense of one of our top-tier teams (Notre Dame) within the last week, and Mikayla Blakes put up 50-plus points twice on SEC opponents. The Seminoles are more experienced in the NCAA Tournament, so this could be the year they break through and win a game or more.

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Pickman: For FSU, and almost everyone else, the draw is critical. Nobody is as dominant as South Carolina was a season ago. That’s what will make this year’s tournament so exciting.

(Photo: Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)

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Russell Wilson escalates feud with Sean Payton, labels Broncos coach ‘classless’

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Russell Wilson escalates feud with Sean Payton, labels Broncos coach ‘classless’

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Russell Wilson and Sean Payton spent just one NFL season together, but tension lingered after a rocky year.

And it appears the tension that built up from that tumultuous stretch continues to linger.

Wilson’s interview on the “Bussin’ With the Boys” podcast, recorded before last month’s Super Bowl between Seattle and New England, recently resurfaced. 

In the interview, Wilson doubled down on his October comment labeling Payton “classless,” saying he felt slighted by his former coach’s remarks.

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Head coach Sean Payton of the Denver Broncos talks to quarterback Russell Wilson on the sideline during an NFL preseason football game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium Aug. 11, 2023, in Glendale, Ariz. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

“[When] you’ve been on the same side or this and that, and I got the same amount of rings as you got, meaning Sean, right?” said Wilson, who won a Super Bowl with the Seattle Seahawks as Payton did coaching for the New Orleans Saints. 

“I got a lot of respect for him as a play-caller, this and that, but to take a shot, I don’t like. I don’t think it’s necessary, you know, I mean, especially when I’m not even on your own team anymore. So, for me, there’s a point in time where you have to, I’ve realized, I’ve stayed quiet for so long. There’s a there’s a time and place where I’m not.

“I know who I am as a competitor, as a warrior, as a champion, too, and, you know, I’ve beaten Sean, too. You know, like we’ve been on the same place and the same thing. And so, it’s not a matter of disrespect. Just don’t disrespect me.”

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Sean Payton and Russell Wilson of the Denver Broncos during an a game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High Nov. 19, 2023, in Denver, Colo. (Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

After a rocky one-year stint with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024, Wilson joined the New York Giants last offseason. However, he was relegated to a backup role after just three games.

Rookie Jaxson Dart quickly showed promise once he had the chance to start, but his season was briefly derailed by injury. Jameis Winston — not Wilson — stepped in for Dart in a handful of games. Dart threw three touchdowns in a Week 7 matchup with the Broncos, nearly pulling off an upset in what was eventually a close loss.

After the game, Payton said Dart provided a “spark” to the Giants’ offense.

“I was talking to [Giants owner] John Mara not too long ago, and I said, ‘We were hoping that that change would have happened long after our game,’” Payton said.

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The New York Giants’ Russell Wilson attempts to escape a sack by Dallas Cowboys defensive end James Houston (53) in the first half of a game Sept. 14, 2025, in Arlington, Texas.  (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Payton also said the Broncos would have faced less of a challenge had Wilson been under center.

“Classless … but not surprised,” Wilson responded in a social media post. “Didn’t realize you’re still bounty hunting 15+ years later though the media.”

Despite last season’s struggles and chatter about his football future, Wilson does not appear ready to call it quits in 2026.

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“I wanna play a few more years for sure,” he said. “I think, for me, I’ve always had the vision of getting to 40, at least. I think the game is different. Quarterbacks, we get hit. It’s not, you know, we get hit hard, but … there’s certain rules. I mean, back in the day when I started, bro, it was you just get [clobbered]. 

“I mean, so I feel like the game allows you to, you know, live a little longer, I guess. I feel healthy. I feel great. But I think, more than anything else is, do you love the game? Do you love studying? Do you love the passion for it all? Do you love the process? Do you love the practice? Do you love — everybody loves the winning part of it, but it’s process. There’s a journey that you got to be obsessed with. And that part I’m obsessed with.”

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Fatigue a factor as early matches begin at Indian Wells

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Fatigue a factor as early matches begin at Indian Wells

The early rounds of the BNP Paribas Open began Wednesday, with top seeds slated to start play Friday during the 12-day ATP and WTPA Master 1000 tournament.

A busy stretch of the tennis season reaches another gear at Indian Wells Tennis Garden, the second largest outdoor tennis stadium in the world.

While many consider it the “fifth Grand Slam” because of its elite player field, amenities and equal prize money for men and women, professionals acknowledge the tournament is part of a stressful stretch on the tennis calendar.

Indian Wells is followed by the Miami Open, another two-week Master 1000 tournament. The tour stops are known as the “Sunshine Double.”

Some players made the short trip from Indian Wells to Las Vegas this past weekend to participate in the MGM Grand Slam, an exhibition designed to help players ramp up for back-to-back tournaments.

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American Reilly Opelka, a 6-foot–11 pro, said managing fatigue after a series of tournaments before hitting Indian Wells has altered his practice and play in exhibition matches, including a loss to 19-year-old Brazilian Joao Fonseca in Las Vegas.

“Normally in any kind of competition, you get excited and play with a pressure point … but you don’t feel this when you are practicing,” Opelka said.

“I was trying to feel like this a few days ago while practicing with … [Tommy Paul,] but instead we got tired and hungry. … That usually doesn’t happen. We just decided to stop and go to eat somewhere.”

Paul said despite the decision to cut practice short, he feels fresh for the upcoming events.

“I started the year pretty well and for Americans, we are excited for the Sunshine Double,” Paul said.

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Casper Rudd lost to Opelka during the first round of the Las Vegas exhibition. The Norwegian also lost a week ago during the first round of the Acapulco Open, falling to Chinese qualifier Yibing Wu in straight sets.

Rudd said he felt “extremely tired” after the Australian Open in January.

Rancho Palo Verdes resident Taylor Fritz, ranked No. 7 in the world, said the best way to prepare yourself for grueling tour schedule is “putting [in] the time, work and repetition.”

“… Be there, be focused on the quality that you are doing,” said Fritz, a 28-year-old who won the Indian Wells title in 2022.

While some players are guarding against burnout, others struggled to even reach California. Some players who live in Dubai, including Russians Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, have to contend with closed airspace triggered by the U.S. and Israel bombing Iran.

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The ATP announced Wednesday that, “the vast majority of players who were in Dubai have successfully departed today on selected flights.”

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Law firm fighting for women’s sports in SCOTUS battle comments on ruling possibly impacting SJSU trans lawsuit

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Law firm fighting for women’s sports in SCOTUS battle comments on ruling possibly impacting SJSU trans lawsuit

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A law firm leading the charge in the ongoing Supreme Court case over trans athletes in women’s sports has responded after a federal judge suggested the case’s ruling could impact a separate case involving a similar issue. 

Colorado District Judge Kato Crews deferred ruling in motions to dismiss former San Jose State volleyball co-captain Brooke Slusser’s lawsuit against the California State University (CSU) system until after a ruling in the B.P.J. v. West Virginia Supreme Court case, which is expected to come in June. 

Slusser filed the lawsuit against representatives of her school and the Mountain West Conference in fall 2024 after she allegedly was made to share bedrooms and changing spaces with trans teammate Blaire Fleming for a whole season without being informed that Fleming is a biological male. 

 

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Meanwhile, the B.P.J. case went to the Supreme Court after a trans teen sued West Virginia to block the state’s law that prevents males from competing in girls’ high school sports. 

The Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) is the primary law firm defending West Virginia in that case at the Supreme Court, and has now responded to news that Slusser’s lawsuit could be affected by the SCOTUS ruling. 

“We hope the ruling from the Supreme Court will affirm that Title IX was designed to guarantee equal opportunity for women, not to let male athletes displace women and girl in competition. It is crucial that sports be separated by sex for not only the equal opportunity of women but for safety and privacy. Title IX should protect women’s right to compete in their own sports. Allowing men to compete in the female category reverses 50 years of advancement for women,” ADF Vice President of Litigation Strategies Jonathan Scruggs said.

Slusser’s attorney, Bill Bock of the Independent Council on Women’s Sports, expects a Supreme Court ruling in favor of the legal defense representing West Virginia, thus helping his case. 

(Left) Brooke Slusser (10) of the San Jose State Spartans serves the ball during the first set against the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Court at East Gym in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on Oct. 19, 2024. (Right) Blaire Fleming #3 of the San Jose State Spartans looks on during the third set against the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Court at East Gym on October 19, 2024 in Colorado Springs, Colorado. ( Andrew Wevers/Getty Images; Andrew Wevers/Getty Images)

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“We’re looking forward to the case going forward,” Bock told Fox News Digital. 

“I believe that the court is going to find that Title IX operates on the basis of biological sex, without regard to an assumed or professed gender, and so just like the congress and the members of congress that passed Title IX in 1972, allowed this specifically provided for in the regulations that there had to be separate men’s and women’s teams based on biological sex, I think the court is going to see that is the original meaning of the statute and apply it in that way, and I think it’s going to be a big win in women’s sports.”

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority appeared prepared to rule in favor of West Virginia after oral arguments on Jan. 13. 

Slusser spoke on the steps of the Supreme Court on Jan. 13 while oral arguments took place inside, sharing her experience with a divided crowd of opposing protesters. 

With Fleming on its roster, SJSU reached the 2024 conference final by virtue of a forfeit by Boise State in the semifinal round. SJSU lost in the final to Colorado State.

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Slusser went on to develop an eating disorder due to the anxiety and trauma from the scandal and dropped out of her classes the following semester. The eating disorder became so severe, that Slusser said she lost her menstrual cycle for nine months. Her decision to drop her classes resulted in the loss of her scholarship, and her parents said they had to foot the bill out of pocket for an unfinished final semester of college. 

President Donald Trump’s Department of Education determined in January that SJSU violated Title IX in its handling of the situation involving Fleming, and has given the university an ultimatum to agree to a series of resolutions or face a referral to the Department of Justice. 

Among the department’s findings, it determined that a female athlete discovered that the trans student allegedly conspired to have a member of an opposing team spike her in the face during a match. ED claims that “SJSU did not investigate the conspiracy, but later subjected the female athlete to a Title IX complaint for ‘misgendering’ the male athlete in online videos and interviews.”

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SJSU trans player Blaire Fleming and teammate Brooke Slusser went to a magic show and had Thanksgiving together in Las Vegas despite an ongoing lawsuit over Fleming being transgender. (Thien-An Truong/San Jose State Athletics)

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SJSU Athletic Director Jeff Konya told Fox News Digital in a July interview that he was satisfied with how the university handled the situation involving Fleming.

“I think everybody acted in the best possible way they could, given the circumstances,” Konya said. 

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