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Why Man City’s legal case means they have incredibly strange relegation odds

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Why Man City’s legal case means they have incredibly strange relegation odds

Manchester City have won the Premier League four times in a row and are unbeaten after seven matches this season.

But they are more likely to be relegated than Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham and West Ham United, according to bookmakers.

City are 12/1 to be relegated this season, with Arsenal and Liverpool, their two most prominent domestic rivals, priced at 2,000/1 to drop into the Championship.

This has nothing to do with their consecutive draws against Arsenal and Newcastle United, nor is it down to Rodri being out for the season with an anterior cruciate ligament injury he sustained against Arsenal in September.

There is no correlation between what they are producing on the pitch and the possibility of them playing in the English Football League next year.

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Betting companies have shifted their odds due to City’s legal dispute with the Premier League — concerning the 100-plus charges levelled against the club — and the prospect of a significant points deduction if they are found guilty.


There is an ongoing case between City and the Premier League (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

“From an industry point of view, the usual way of forming your relegation odds is to take the title odds and flip them the other way,” explains Alan Alger, a gambling consultant. “This is the first time it hasn’t happened.

“It is unprecedented that you would have a very short price for the title and then also what is a relatively short price for relegation. That can only be because the threat of relegation exists because of a relegation sanction or because of a big enough points deduction that puts them in the mix to be relegated.”


What is the latest regarding Manchester City’s 115 charges?

The hearing that will decide whether City broke any of the Premier League’s financial rules started on September 16 and is taking place in London.

It took more than 18 months to get to this stage, with the Premier League announcing the charges in February 2023. The hearing is expected to last around two and a half months.

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The club is accused of multiple alleged breaches of a financial nature, including accusations they injected revenue by inflating sponsorship deals, while also hiding some costs by not declaring certain salaries and image-rights payments.

The charges range from failing to provide accurate financial information, breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules, failing to cooperate with the Premier League’s investigations, not providing accurate details for player and manager payments and not complying with UEFA’s FFP regulations.

When a verdict is delivered, City and the Premier League can mount an appeal if they are unhappy with the decision. City have maintained their innocence and strenuously deny all the charges.

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How has this impacted their relegation odds?

Ordinarily, Manchester City, like Liverpool and Arsenal, would be priced at 2,000/1 to be relegated. This is a general price that makes clear bookmakers think there is no chance of it happening.

But in May, the market shifted and serious thought needed to be given to the likelihood of City receiving a points deduction that could lead to relegation.

“We were the first out in the industry in putting a price on Manchester City,” explains Bet365’s Steve Freeth. “We discussed whether we should offer a price because, quite clearly, the liabilities running out on 2,000/1 would be astronomical.

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“It was a case of some heads getting together, putting our fingers in the air and saying, ‘What’s going to happen to Manchester City and how do we see it?’, because it is so extreme.

“The price we fell on was 33/1 because you can’t know whether they will get nothing at all or be deducted 100 points. We went out in the market on May 19 with 33/1 and it has been a steady flow of business ever since.”


Manchester City vs the Premier League


Are people placing bets on City being relegated?

Yes, which is why their odds have shortened from 33/1 to 12/1.

“The kind of people backing it are your regular punters in the street, placing bets of £1, £5 and £10,” says Freeth. “They are the sorts of bets we are laying.

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“We are laying quite a considerable amount of those bets, hence why the price has dropped from 33/1 to 12/1 over those months.”

Freeth noted that Bet365 has “built liabilities into seven figures”, meaning if City are relegated this season, their payout to customers totals more than £1million.

“We have to protect ourselves because it is such a volatile situation and that’s why we haven’t been offering 2,000/1,” Freeth adds. “Manchester City could win the next 10 games on the bounce but the 12/1 price wouldn’t move a great deal. It is not about results on the pitch, it is about results in the courtroom.”


City have been in good form in the Premier League but this will not impact odds (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

“It is purely a case of bookmakers protecting against the chance of a large points deduction that puts them in the relegation market,” Alger says. “And in such a high-percentage market in terms of profit for bookmakers, because you have 20 teams and three winners, you can overload the percentage and there is no upside in going 500/1 for Manchester City.

“But the fact you can go 12/1 and only take a small amount of margin out of your overall market, there is no upside to going any bigger than those prices because you won’t get any prizes for doing so. As the season plays out, you will continue to see them at a false price for relegation in terms of the chance of it happening.”

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Have legal cases influenced sports betting markets before?

Everton and Nottingham Forest received points deductions last season, which has helped inform bookmakers on how to price in legal cases and potential punishments for relegation odds.

However, the cases involving Everton and Nottingham Forest pale compared to what has been levelled at City by the Premier League.

“Sometimes you can get a steer but there is such little information out there about the City case,” Freeth explains. “There was a steer last season that Everton would get a deduction of some sort, so that wasn’t as difficult to model. We didn’t think Everton would get more than 10 points, likewise Nottingham Forest.

“But just like everyone else, we haven’t got a clue (regarding Manchester City). That made us better prepared last season, but we have to stay vigilant and manage accordingly.”


Has a potential points deduction impacted City’s odds of winning a fifth consecutive title?

Pep Guardiola’s side are no longer favourites to win the Premier League, with Arsenal being viewed by bookmakers as the most likely club to end the season on top.

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“The difference between being 4/7 favourites and then being 8/11 favourites at the start of the season, it looks minimal, but the percentage difference is about the same as the difference between 12/1 and 500/1 for relegation,” Alger says.

And, according to Freeth, people are still backing City to win the league, with the market most recently being impacted by Rodri’s season-ending injury, as well as Kevin De Bruyne missing the last three matches through injury.

(Top photo: Matt McNulty/Getty Images)

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Get ready for more Prime Time. The attention is warranted for Colorado’s star coach

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Get ready for more Prime Time. The attention is warranted for Colorado’s star coach

If you’re suffering from Deion Sanders fatigue, worn down by the Colorado football coach’s repeated presence on sports feeds and debate shows, you’re in for a rough couple of months.

By landing a commitment from star recruit Julian Lewis on Thursday, Sanders secured more than a top quarterback prospect. He also came away with increased options for his future, a reality that figures to keep him prominently positioned in upcoming news cycles.

Whatever develops, the attention is warranted based on the impressive job he has done the last five seasons, leading Jackson State to a 27-6 record before guiding Colorado to a share of the Big 12 lead entering Saturday’s game against Kansas.

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Before this week, I would have given competitive odds that Sanders would leave Colorado after this season. Two of his friends told me a handful of years ago his primary reason for accepting the Jackson State job — his first as a college coach — was to ensure Shedeur Sanders, his youngest son, would have every opportunity to develop into a top quarterback and a highly drafted NFL player.

Over four seasons, including the last two with Colorado, Shedeur, 22, has completed 70 percent of his passes for 13,415 yards and 124 touchdowns with just 24 interceptions. He also has rushed for 17 scores, though he is not considered a dual-threat in the classic sense. He is a pocket passer with the mobility to create space and make off-platform throws with accuracy and velocity.

Where that lands him in the draft is unknown, but credible draft analysts have him and Miami’s Cam Ward as the top quarterback prospects. And since teams place a premium on the position — 17 signal callers have been selected No. 1 since 2000 — the likelihood appears strong that he will be drafted near the top of the first round, if not first overall.

Which brings me back to his father’s future and potential options. Deion Sanders could easily consider it mission accomplished and hang up his whistle at the end of the season, particularly with cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter, a front-runner to win this season’s Heisman Trophy, already declaring that he, too, is off to the NFL after the season. Losing his top two players represents a significant drain of talent that will be hard for Sanders to replace in the short term, potentially resulting in fewer victories.

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Sanders was a Hall of Fame cornerback and a standout baseball player. You don’t play both sports at the highest level … in the same season … without having a competitive drive that matches your physical ability. Which is why I could not see him staying at Colorado with an inferior roster.

Having Lewis in the fold, however, gives him a bell-cow performer he can not only build around but also use as a magnet to attract more playmakers. Lewis had previously committed to USC but changed his mind in part because of Sanders and the success of Shedeur. It suggests that recruits are seeing past the glitz and glam and recognizing the skill development taking place.

“It’s a huge opportunity!” Lewis said in a statement to On3. “What Coach Prime has been able to build in two seasons can’t be denied. I’ve had a chance to get to know him and believe that he can further develop me into the player and person that I want to be. Coach (Pat) Shurmur has been an NFL offensive coordinator and head coach, so he understands exactly what’s needed at the next level. Coach Prime is going to play the best player, whether it’s a freshman or a walk-on.”

But back to the discussion about the future and potential options. There has been speculation NFL teams could have interest in Sanders, who has had only one losing season in four years and has the 8-2 Buffaloes in contention for a College Football Playoff berth two years after finishing 1-11 the season before Sanders arrived. He has not publicly expressed interest in making the jump and in 2023 told Sports Illustrated: “I don’t have any desire or ambition to coach in the NFL. I have a problem with men getting their checks and not doing their jobs. I have a problem with that. I would be too tough as a coach in the NFL because I still have those old-school attributes.”

And yet …

Michael Irvin, a close friend and former Dallas Cowboys teammate, believes Sanders would not hesitate to accept the Cowboys job if it were offered and Shedeur was drafted by Dallas.

“I believe (it) 100 percent,” he said on Fox Sports’ “The Herd with Colin Cowherd.” “And I can tell you, good sources have told me that. Great sources have told me that. That’s all I can say like that without violating anything else.”

These types of comments tend to fuel the rumor mill because as much of a long shot as it may be, you cannot completely dismiss the idea until Cowboys owner Jerry Jones categorically says it’s not happening, which he has not done.

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Sanders’ name also could surface for other college jobs, particularly if the Buffaloes reach the Playoff and make a run. He was an unproven commodity in 2021 after he took the Jackson State job. Major colleges were unwilling to take a chance on him because he had no track record. Some wondered if he was more style than substance.

Florida State, his alma mater, is regularly mentioned as a possibility, but that seems unlikely because of what it would cost to move on from coach Mike Norvell and because the sides are not on the greatest of terms after FSU didn’t make much of an effort to bring in Sanders a handful of years ago when he first talked about coaching on the collegiate level.

It would be irresponsible to throw out the names of other schools before an opening exists, but college football has become as cutthroat as the NFL, and landing Sanders could be viewed as a boon not only on the field but off it, as evidenced by the increase in attendance, viewership and alumni contributions. Never forget that major-college football is as much a business as a game, which is why Sanders is in a great position.

He has proved himself on both fronts. He has exceeded expectations at every turn, taking a group that was rated the second-worst staff in the Big 12 coming into the season and advancing to the cusp of a Big 12 championship. The Lewis commitment was yet another victory in a season of victories, but it’s significant because it gives him the ability to make decisions about his future based on whether something aligns with his purpose and vision. If the NFL calls, great. If another college program calls, cool. For Sanders, there is no downside. He has positioned himself to have positive options regardless of the situation, which means we are sure to continue seeing him on news feeds and debate shows.

(Photo of Deion Sanders speaking with Fox Sports reporter Jenny Taft after a win against Utah: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

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Max Verstappen wins 4th straight F1 world championship as George Russell wins Las Vegas Grand Prix

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Max Verstappen wins 4th straight F1 world championship as George Russell wins Las Vegas Grand Prix

Saturday night was all right for Max Verstappen.

The Red Bull racer finished in fifth place at the Las Vegas Grand Prix and it was enough to capture his fourth consecutive Formula 1 World Championship. 

He needed to finish ahead of McLaren’s Lando Norris to pick up the title win and did just that. Norris was in sixth place.

Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, of the Netherlands, drives the course during qualifying for the Formula One U.S. Grand Prix auto race, Friday, Nov. 22, 2024, in Las Vegas.  (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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It was far from the easiest weekend for Verstappen. Red Bull made a mistake adjusting his rear wing and data showed his vehicle was running slower than Mercedes drivers George Russell and Lewis Hamilton on the straightaways. While Russell captured the pole, Verstappen was able to get enough out of the car to start in fifth. He only needed to score three more points than Norris to clinch the world championship. Norris qualified sixth.

Mercedes was clearly quicker. Russell won the race. It was his second win of the season. Hamilton finished right behind him while Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz picked up a podium spot in third place.

George Russell wins in Vegas

Mercedes driver George Russell, of Britain, celebrates are winning the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix auto race, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Las Vegas.  (AP Photo/Matt York)

Verstappen tied Sebastian Vettel, Juan Manuel Fangio and Hamilton with four consecutive titles. Michael Schumacher won five straight from 2000 to 2004.

Schumacher and Hamilton each have the most world titles with seven in total. Fangio has five and Verstappen is tied with Vettel and Alain Prost with four.

Max Verstappen talks to reporters

Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, of the Netherlands, prepares to race before the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix auto race, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Las Vegas.  (AP Photo/John Locher)

F1 LEGEND MARIO ANDRETTI TALKS AMERICAN DRIVERS, CONSTRUCTORS GETTING BACK ONTO GRID AHEAD OF LAS VEGAS GP

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Las Vegas Grand Prix racers had to battle a weekend of cold weather and the wind. Drivers were slipping and sliding all over the place through the first three practices. But picked up the pace in qualifying with the only mistake coming from Franco Colapinto, who suffered a crash in Q2. 

Aside from Pierre Gasly’s disappointing night on Saturday, the race was run clean.

The F1 schedule still has two races on its docket, the Qatar Grand Prix and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with the constructors’ championship up for grabs.

Ferrari drivers Sainz and Charles Leclerc finished third and fourth, with McLaren’s Norris and Oscar Piastri finishing sixth and seventh.

Max Verstappen in Sphere

Red Bull driver Max Verstappen, of the Netherlands, drives the course during qualifying for the Formula One U.S. Grand Prix auto race, Friday, Nov. 22, 2024, in Las Vegas.  (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

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McLaren entered the weekend 36 points ahead of Ferrari in the constructors’ standings. After the Las Vegas result, McLaren will be up 24 points going into Qatar (608 points to Ferrari’s 584).

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

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UCLA vs. USC takeaways: Bruins aim for resilience after fumbling away a signature win

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UCLA vs. USC takeaways: Bruins aim for resilience after fumbling away a signature win

A heavy mist hung over the Rose Bowl late Saturday night, adding to the yuck factor of what just transpired for the home team.

A shanked punt at the worst possible time. A sturdy defense fooled by a trick play. An offense that couldn’t gain one yard given a chance to win the game.

It added up to the most crushing loss of the season.

“Sucks,” UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers said after the Bruins’ 19-13 setback against USC in his final cross-town rivalry game. “Really sucks.”

Garbers was involved in two critical sequences that ensured UCLA (4-7 overall, 3-6 Big Ten) will finish the season with a losing record.

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The first came on a failed fourth-down sneak. The second came when he suddenly couldn’t find a rhythm after completing every previous pass in the second half.

It left Bruins fans with a similarly sickening feeling from previous close losses to Minnesota and Washington.

Here are five takeaways from a defeat that will heavily frame UCLA coach DeShaun Foster’s first season:

Bad ending

USC defensive end Sam Greene hits UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers as he delivers an incomplete pass on Bruins’ last offensive play during a loss to Trojans Saturday at the Rose Bowl.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

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It was the sort of moment that can forge a legacy.

With a chance to go 2-0 as a starter in the rivalry game while keeping the Victory Bell painted blue, Garbers stepped to the line of scrimmage at his own 25-yard line with 2:09 left and his team needing a touchdown to win.

He had already thrown for 156 yards and a touchdown in the second half while completing all 11 of his passes.

The next four plays: incompletion, incompletion, incompletion, incompletion. A few of the throws weren’t even close to connecting with their targets.

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“Just hard to find a rhythm,” Garbers said of his struggles on the final drive.

UCLA’s offense gained 376 yards but couldn’t make plays in crucial moments. The Bruins converted only three of 11 third downs and went 0 for 3 on fourth downs.

The game film should be cataloged in the horror section for anyone associated with UCLA.

The longest yard

Having long expressed his belief in his team’s ability to get a yard, Foster went for it on fourth and one at the UCLA 34-yard line with five minutes left and the Bruins trailing by three points.

It wasn’t the most imaginative play call, Foster saying it was his decision — and not offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s — to run a quarterback sneak.

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“I thought it was a good call and every call that’s made in certain situations — I am making those,” Foster said.

Garbers was stopped for no gain, but both Foster and his quarterback said the play was blown dead prematurely.

Said Foster: “That was the first time I’ve seen a quarterback sneak get called dead, you know? They usually let that play roll; they stopped it, they blew the whistle, so who knows where we would have ended up.”

Said Garbers: “I was looking at the marker and I thought I was past it. But I guess they blow the forward progress dead early. So, can’t control that.”

Here’s something indisputable: UCLA will need to fortify its offensive line through the transfer portal to ensure it can pick up one yard in similar situations next season.

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Same old story

UCLA coach DeShaun Foster argues with a referee during his team's loss USC at the Rose Bowl Saturday.

UCLA coach DeShaun Foster argues with a referee during his team’s loss USC at the Rose Bowl Saturday.

(Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times)

Nearly every week, Foster has said he’s going to fix his team’s discipline issues.

Then the next game comes and it’s more of the same slop on the field.

The low point Saturday came going into halftime, when UCLA wide receiver Kwazi Gilmer, safety Bryan Addison and an unspecified assistant coach were called for unsportsmanlike conduct penalties as both teams made their way toward the locker room while jawing at one another.

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Foster said he was told the brouhaha was precipitated by a USC player punching Gilmer, leading him to retaliate. As a result of the penalties, UCLA was forced to kick off from its own five-yard line to start the third quarter.

The Bruins also compounded giving up a 41-yard kickoff return with a late hit by Evan Thomas. It was just one of the eight penalties they committed for 70 yards.

“That’s why that’s my first pillar; I didn’t pull it out of nowhere, it was my first pillar for a reason,” Foster said of discipline. “I felt that that was something that we were lacking and missing and we’re still missing it, so we’re going to just continue to strive in the direction of discipline and eventually it’s going to get fixed.”

Lost opportunity

UCLA receiver J.Michael Sturdivant catches a long pass between USC cornerback Jaylin Smith and safety Bryson Shaw

UCLA receiver J.Michael Sturdivant catches a long pass between USC cornerback Jaylin Smith (2) and safety Bryson Shaw (27) during the second half at the Rose Bowl Saturday.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

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With a win over the Trojans, Foster wouldn’t have had to do any convincing when it comes to the narrative of his first season.

He would have beaten USC counterpart Lincoln Riley, who has taken multiple teams to the College Football Playoff and makes more than three times his salary.

He would have significantly enhanced his team’s name, image and likeness fundraising efforts that will be critical to upgrading the talent on his roster.

He would have given the hundreds of high school recruits at the game another reason to give a commitment. (Kenneth Moore III, a wide receiver from St. Mary’s High in Stockton, actually did commit to the Bruins before the game.)

Now there’s going to be more spin needed to sell recruits. One possible pitch: Come help us finish these games.

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“All of these losses have come to pretty much us letting it slip through our hands,” Foster said. “You know, we gotta find a way to finish games and, you know, just keep coming after half and play better, finish the games. Just really put our stamp on the end of it.”

What now?

UCLA tight end Moliki Matavao beats USC safety Bryson Shaw to reach the end zone in the third quarter at the Rose Bowl

UCLA tight end Moliki Matavao beats USC safety Bryson Shaw to reach the end zone in the third quarter at the Rose Bowl Saturday.

(Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times)

Given what happened Saturday, there won’t be much at stake in UCLA’s final game of the season against Fresno State next weekend at the Rose Bowl.

The Bruins will try to send their seniors out as winners while continuing to show resolve. A win over the Bulldogs (6-5) would help UCLA finish the season with four victories in its final six games.

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“They kept rebounding this whole season,” Foster said of his players, “so they’re gonna continue to be resilient and continue to be the type of football players that I know that they are.”

A warning for the Bruins: The Bulldogs have won the last four games in the series.

A warning for Foster: Fresno State has been especially hard on new UCLA coaches, beating Chip Kelly, Rick Neuheisel and Karl Dorrell in each of their first years on the job in Westwood.

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