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Why Iga Swiatek’s doping case being kept secret is bad for tennis

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Why Iga Swiatek’s doping case being kept secret is bad for tennis

Iga Swiatek’s one-month suspension for unintentionally taking the banned substance trimetazidine (TMZ) comes down to picograms. World No. 2 Swiatek’s positive test, recorded August 12 and communicated to her alongside a provisional suspension September 12, detected 50 picograms of TMZ per milliliter of urine, which doping experts call a trace amount.

A picogram is 1,000th of a nanogram; there are one billion nanograms in a gram. Not the sort of usage that would provide any advantage in a tennis match.

Combined with Swiatek submitting her medications and supplements to independent laboratories alongside hair samples, those numbers led the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) to accept her explanation that she had taken a contaminated dose of melatonin, which she had used to help her sleep to combat jet lag.

Here are some more numbers.

On September 20, 15 days after Jessica Pegula knocked her out of the U.S. Open and eight days after being told she had tested positive, Swiatek announced she was going to skip one of the top tournaments of the year.

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“Due to personal matters, I’m forced to withdraw from the China Open in Beijing,” Swiatek said in a statement. “I’m very sorry as I had an amazing time playing and winning this tournament last year and was really looking forward to being back there. I know that the fans will experience great tennis there and I’m sorry I won’t be a part of it this time.”

The announcement came after Swiatek spent the end of the summer rightfully talking about how exhausted she was following the Olympic Games in July and August, at which she took the bronze medal after an intense period that included winning her fourth French Open in five years, competing at Wimbledon, and not winning a gold medal for which she was viewed as champion-in-waiting. Skipping a tournament due to “personal matters” seemed to fit with that narrative. Fatigue. A medical issue. Burnout. Family stuff.


Iga Swiatek at the Olympics earlier this year. (Dimitar Dilkoff / AFP via Getty Images)

Under the broadest definition, “personal matters” does cover just about anything. That said, when someone uses that phrase, the immediate understanding generally involves some sort of health or family issue. It’s personal, and generally separate from something that’s either public or professional.

There’s also an implicit boundary request in the phrase: What’s going on is my own business.

But positive doping tests and provisional suspensions handed down by an anti-doping authority are not personal matters. Those are professional matters, in a profession that is very public.

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GO DEEPER

Explaining Iga Swiatek’s doping ban, why it was kept secret and what it means for tennis

The ITIA holds off on announcing any positive test for 10 days so the player has the right to appeal the provisional suspension. If the player decides to appeal, the agency keeps the findings secret, and the player generally does, too. Then the process of testing, litigation and judging unfolds behind closed doors. In Swiatek’s case, her successful appeal allowed her to play the WTA Tour Finals and the Billie Jean King Cup Finals while that process was going on.

Swiatek’s team’s statement says that she “was unable to inform the public about the ongoing investigation”. The ITIA’s code subjects its officials, employees and associates to confidentiality, but nothing explicitly prohibits a player who has tested positive and is serving a provisional suspension during an appeal from explaining what’s going on.

So, if you feel that you have been misled the past few months, then join the club. “Personal matter” doesn’t begin to describe a positive doping test and the process that ensued, and in the the long run, that less-than-transparent explanation for her absence may end up harming Swiatek more than the positive test for unintentionally taking a performance-enhancing substance that likely had no effect on her performance.

Whose decision was it to describe this as a “personal matter”? Was any consideration given to saying something else?

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On Friday, Paula Wolecka, a spokesperson for Swiatek, stated in an email that Swiatek had experienced great distress because she knew she was innocent of intentionally doping and had taken contaminated medicine.

“The decisions were made with the best intentions at every stage of the process, step by step, according to current knowledge of the team and circumstances,” Wolecka wrote.

“Iga did everything in her power to act fair, to follow the ITIA’s procedures and requirements and after the decision was officially published by the ITIA, provide everyone with as many details of the process as possible to be fully transparent. Being a good human being with a strong core of values is crucial to her and she does her best to act in line with it, on and off the court.”

In a video statement Thursday, Swiatek said, “The whole thing will definitely stay with me for the rest of my life.”

Both Swiatek’s one-month suspension and the decision not to ban Jannik Sinner for his two positive tests for clostebol, an anabolic steroid, have been conducted according to ITIA protocol. Both cases have also revealed deep wells of mistrust and anger within tennis from fans and players alike, confused at players being allowed to play while under investigation. Everything has been done by the book. The book appears in need of a rewrite.

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There are also plenty of hard-nosed anti-doping officials who believe the science has gotten ahead of the rulebook. Swiatek tested negative multiple times before the positive test and then again after. That would indicate that she was not in the middle of a doping cycle, and the trace amount of TMZ suggested an unintentional use as well.


Iga Swiatek playing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on November 3. (Robert Prange / Getty Images)

So perhaps provisional suspensions are not the way to go when the science says the athlete didn’t receive any benefit.

On a conference call with reporters Thursday, the ITIA’s chief executive, Karen Moorhouse, said the rules are in place to be fair to the players. “We’ve been absolutely transparent once they’ve reached an outcome,” Moorhouse said.

But is that transparent enough?

It’s true that players may not see much incentive for going public amid a period of uncertainty; that as soon as they announce they have tested positive for a banned substance and are under investigation, everyone will brand them as a cheater. Some no doubt would.

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But a player is going to have to answer for the positive test eventually anyway. Would Swiatek, the ITIA and tennis be better off had they jointly come clean about this in September, rather than announcing it as done and dusted now, after Swiatek had spent the fall giving other explanations for her absence from competitive tennis?

It’s hard to not think so.

Now she has both tested positive and opted not to be “absolutely transparent” for two months. That’s not a very good combination.

It’s impossible to consider the Swiatek case without comparing it to that of Sinner, the world No. 1 in the men’s game.

Sinner tested positive for clostebol on March 10 this year at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, Calif, and again on March 18, out of competition. The independent tribunals of the ITIA determined the now 23-year-old Italian bore “no fault or negligence” for the positive tests, and therefore wasn’t deserving of a ban. But all this only became public at the conclusion of the ITIA’s investigations and hearings in mid-August.

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There wasn’t much transparency there either, and the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) has since challenged and appealed the ruling to the Court of Arbitration of Sport (CAS), arguing that Sinner’s level of culpability should be upgraded to “no significant fault or negligence”, which would leave him facing a ban of up to two years.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Jannik Sinner’s doping case explained: What WADA appeal means and what is at stake for tennis

Through it all though, Sinner never explained anything to the public. He didn’t have to. He successfully appealed two provisional suspensions quickly enough to avoid missing any tournaments. Still, when the ITIA announced the details of the Sinner investigation and its ruling, much of the tennis-watching public felt like people had put one over on them.

That’s not good for anyone.

Swiatek repeatedly talked about the matter coming to a close in her video statement. Yet it’s hard to believe it has.

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She will absolutely face more questions when the 2025 season begins in Australia in late December — about the doping violation, but also about why she didn’t tell us what was really keeping her off the court. So too will tennis authorities, about how a system which they say is working as designed can create situations in which so many people feel left in the dark.

 (Top photo: Robert Prange / Getty Images)

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Daniel Jones opens up about decision to sign with Vikings after split from Giants: ‘Excited to be here’

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Daniel Jones opens up about decision to sign with Vikings after split from Giants: ‘Excited to be here’

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Daniel Jones opened up this week about his decision to sign with the Minnesota Vikings as a backup quarterback after he was released by the New York Giants following his own request. 

Speaking to reporters on Friday for the first time since giving a farewell speech to the media in New York, Jones sounded enthusiastic about joining a new team and working under head coach Kevin O’Connell. 

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Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell makes a pass during the Minnesota Vikings Minicamp on June 5, 2024, at TCO Performance Center in Eagan, MN. (Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

“Excited to be here, excited to be a Minnesota Viking – awesome opportunity. Just looking to help out and be a part of this team. We’ve got some great momentum going and just want to help out in any way I can.”

Jones signed with the Vikings as a backup behind Sam Darnold, another former New York quarterback who left the city on a sour note after his tenure with the Jets ended. 

When asked why Minnesota was the right fit among other teams searching for help at the quarterback position, Jones pointed specifically to the success the offense has seen this season. 

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Sam Darnold throws pass

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Indianapolis Colts during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. (Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images)

TOM BRADY QUESTIONS DANIEL JONES’ REQUEST FOR RELEASE FROM GIANTS AFTER DEMOTION

“I think you look at, offensively, what they’ve been able to do. I think the system, coach O’Connell, his staff – just a lot of good things happening across the board as a team, as an organization, but on offense especially. Just excited to join that and help out wherever I can.”  

In his sixth season with the Giants, Jones requested to be released after he was benched in favor of third-string quarterback and fan-favorite, Tommy DeVito, which followed their 20-17 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Daniel Jones looks on

New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones watches during the second half of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2024, in Munich, Germany.  (AP Photo/Lennart Preiss)

The Giants are 0-2 since parting ways, but Jones seems to have put the past to rest. 

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“It’s been a crazy last couple of weeks, for sure. Certainly a lot going on. At the end of the day, I’m excited to be here. This is an awesome opportunity,” he said on Friday. “I’m looking forward to learning the system and building relationships with these guys and helping the team.”

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Unbreakable: How MMA training forged a bond between Derwin James Jr. and Daiyan Henley

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Unbreakable: How MMA training forged a bond between Derwin James Jr. and Daiyan Henley

Plays go awry. Opponents score touchdowns. The Chargers even can lose a close game, but through every on-field adversity, Derwin James Jr. calmly looks at Daiyan Henley and reminds the second-year linebacker that they’ve conquered more difficult things together.

They think about the mixed martial arts workouts at a West Hollywood gym where they grappled, wrestled and tackled until their lungs burned and muscles ached.

Where they, as the name of the gym suggests, became “unbreakable.”

Where they plotted Henley’s breakout year that’s beginning to take shape.

“Everything he wants is right in front of him,” said James, the team’s star safety. “He can be, man, one of the best linebackers in this league.”

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After a forgettable rookie season in which the third-round pick totaled just 10 tackles, Henley has grown into a breakout star of the Chargers’ resurgent defense. The former Crenshaw High standout leads the NFL’s No. 1-ranked scoring defense with 99 tackles, including five consecutive games with double-digit stops, the longest streak by a Charger since the turn of the century. With 10 or more tackles against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, Henley would tie the longest streak since 2000 for any player in his first two NFL seasons.

Henley is a stout force against the run game. He can drop back in pass coverage and has five pass breakups. He is a constant presence on special teams.

Chargers safety Derwin James Jr., left, and linebacker Daiyan Henley (0) tackle Ravens running back Derrick Henry during a game earlier this season.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

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“He’s that new-age linebacker that can really do it all,” defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said.

Jim Harbaugh noticed Henley’s unique blend of size, strength and speed almost immediately when the new coach and his staff took over in the offseason. He was in awe that the 6-foot-1, 225-pound linebacker ran like a safety.

The comparison is not far from reality. After beginning at Nevada as a wide receiver, Henley transitioned to safety for the Wolf Pack. He grew into a first-team All-Pac-12 linebacker at Washington State as a graduate transfer before the Chargers selected him 85th in the 2023 draft.

Henley earned raves during his rookie preseason that featured 14 tackles and one interception in three games, but he was soon forgotten in former coach Brandon Staley’s defense. He played just 54 defensive snaps as a rookie.

As he stood on the sideline, doubt started creeping in. Henley wondered if he belonged at this level. He questioned what he was lacking and what he wasn’t doing well enough.

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“I just wanted more, wanted to be better, wanted to prove myself,” Henley said. “So getting to the offseason, I was dedicated to just improving myself.”

Henley was referred to a bright pink gym in West Hollywood by his uncle. When he found out that James also trained at Unbreakable, which was founded by Fox Sports NFL insider Jay Glazer, they started syncing their workout schedules.

They tangled in grueling MMA workouts. Henley, 10 pounds heavier and an inch shorter, claims he never lost any head-to-head bouts. James contends that in one session, he pushed Henley all the way off the mat before the linebacker unfairly tried to sling him out of the ring.

“First of all, you shouldn’t be pushing anybody out, because that’s not the point of the session,” an incredulous Henley said when presented with James’ memories of their training. “See, he’s exposing himself.”

First, the pair went through two assigned rounds that Henley dominated, he said. James then proposed a third round in which the All-Pro safety shoved Henley, who responded by applying the training technique of using an opponent’s weight against him. Both acknowledge that James, who started training at the gym earlier, had the upper hand in stamina.

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“Once he started to get it, he was tougher,” said James, who refers to Henley as his “little bro.” “He’s a beast.”

The training has translated to the field, where the rules of leverage, getting low and body positioning still apply to tackling, James said. Since missing four tackles against Arizona, when he was playing while wearing a restrictive shoulder and elbow sling after injuring his elbow against Kansas City in Week 4, Henley has missed just four in the last five games while collecting 61 tackles.

When he was tangling with James on the mat, Henley never considered how much of an influence the training would have on the field.

“It makes me understand why DJ is elite at tackling,” Henley said.

This season James became the fastest defensive back since 2000 to reach 500 career tackles. A team captain for the fourth consecutive season, James has influenced Henley beyond their shared workouts. They bonded further over an offseason trip to Tokyo, where they gorged on sushi and wagyu beef. They dreamed what they wanted to accomplish this season under a new coaching staff.

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Henley said he never got clarity from the previous coaches about his role. It doesn’t matter. Earning the support and belief from his veteran teammates is more important.

“I just want to prove to them that I’m legit,” Henley said.

The smile on James’ face when asked about Henley’s growth shows the Chargers’ young star has achieved what he hoped.

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One Black Friday 2024 free-agent deal for every MLB team

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One Black Friday 2024 free-agent deal for every MLB team

December is almost upon us. The final month on the calendar is the most transactional time of the baseball year. In nine days, the industry will gather in Dallas for the Winter Meetings. The biggest questions of the offseason — Where will Juan Soto go? Which pitcher will get paid the most? Seriously, who is signing Soto? — will start getting answered.

Some of the answers have already emerged. Scott Boras struck early with a pair of pitching clients: Blake Snell has agreed to a five-year, $182 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, while Yusei Kikuchi took a three-year, $63 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. So the pitching market has taken shape.

There is a plethora of talent besides Soto, Snell and Kikuchi on the market this winter, an interesting collection of elite pitchers and accomplished hitters. With that in mind, here is one free-agent Black Friday fit for each team, an annual ritual that occasionally gets things right. As always, these projections stem from a combination of reporting, wish-casting, and, on the rarest of occasions, some trolling. (There’s less trolling this year, we think.)

A note to the readers: This is an imperfect exercise. We can’t assign every player to the Los Angeles Dodgers, even if seemingly every free agent might want to play there and every free agent might fit there. (Don’t even try to ask about Roki Sasaki, by the way.) We can’t let Steve Cohen outfit all the starting pitchers in orange and blue. We have to predict the Miami Marlins will sign a big-league free agent. There will be some whiffs in here. But hopefully we can demonstrate how the rest of this winter could unfold.

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Chicago White Sox (41-121)

Kyle Hart, LHP

The most pressing bit of business for general manager Chris Getz is getting the best possible trade return for pitcher Garrett Crochet. Adding big-league free agents shouldn’t be the priority for a team coming off the worst season in baseball history. But they could use some more pitching. Erick Fedde utilized the White Sox as a springboard as he returned from the KBO after being named the South Korean league’s 2023 MVP. Perhaps Hart, a former Red Sox farmhand who posted a 2.69 ERA in 157 innings for the league’s NC Dinos last year, could do the same.

We promise the rest of this exercise will be more interesting.

Colorado Rockies (61-101)

Mark Canha, IF/OF

OK, sorry, give us some time. As a franchise, the Rockies appear to be guided mostly by inertia. The team is not expected to be aggressive about improving a roster that has finished in last place in three consecutive seasons. Canha can handle a variety of different positions while adding a veteran presence to the youthful clubhouse.

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Miami Marlins (62-100)

Harrison Bader, CF

The Marlins are more likely to upgrade their lineup through trades than free agency, so this one probably won’t happen. This is a tough slog. OK. Buckle down. It will get better.

Los Angeles Angels (63-99)

Cavan Biggio, IF/OF

The Angels have actually accomplished a good bit of offseason heavy lifting already. Earlier this week, GM Perry Minasian signed Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million deal, adding to an early-winter haul that includes outfielder Jorge Soler, catcher Travis d’Arnaud, starter Kyle Hendricks and infielder Kevin Newman. So the team may be done throwing big money around. Biggio would be an upgrade on the bench over Scott Kingery.

Las Vegas Athletics of Sacramento (69-93)

Yoán Moncada, 3B

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Oakland made some strides last season and the position-player core looks decent. The team — officially now just known as the Athletics — still has a vacancy at third base. It might be worthwhile to see if Moncada, a former top-five prospect who never found consistency with the White Sox, can stay healthy and motivated enough to rebound. He will certainly cost less than the $25 million team option declined by Chicago earlier this month.

Washington Nationals (71-91)

Anthony Santander, OF

A team like the Nationals, which could use some certainty at the center of its lineup, might be willing to give out a lengthier deal to Santander as he enters his age-30 season. The Nationals hit fewer homers than any team besides the White Sox in 2024. Santander could change that. He has averaged 35 homers during the past three seasons and swatted a career-high 44 in 2024.

Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)


Corbin Burnes could be heading north. (Greg Fiume / Getty Images)

Corbin Burnes, RHP

If the Blue Jays are serious about Soto, they should be serious about Burnes, another star represented by Scott Boras. Burnes will likely command the longest deal of all the top starters, but he also presents the longest track record of sustained success. Burnes could anchor Toronto’s rotation in 2025 and beyond. Chris Bassitt can enter free agency after this season. Kevin Gausman can do the same after 2026. And José Berríos could opt out of his contract after 2026, too.

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Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)

Tyler O’Neill, OF

O’Neill clubbed the baseball around in his lone season in Boston. He slugged .511 and hit 31 homers. He won’t turn 30 until next June. He won two Gold Gloves with St. Louis. So why isn’t he expected to secure a nine-figure deal? Injuries. He’s been dogged by them the last few years. He played 113 games for Boston as he dealt with a variety of minor issues. A team like Pittsburgh, which isn’t too far away from contending in the National League Central, should be willing to risk a three-year deal on a player with O’Neill’s upside.

Cincinnati Reds (77-85)

Teoscar Hernández, OF

Speaking of teams close to contending in the Central …

Look, there’s a good chance Hernández just returns to the Dodgers, but let’s dream a Queen City dream for a moment. The Reds lured Terry Francona out of retirement by selling the prospect of winning with a young core. The lineup could use a cleanup hitter. Owner Bob Castellini has supported payrolls beyond $100 million in the past, and he can certainly afford to do so again in 2025.

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Yeah, we’re forcing the issue. Hernández will probably just rejoin the Dodgers. Or head to New York to join the Mets. Or to Atlanta. Or to Seattle. But it’s worth considering!

Texas Rangers (78-84)

Tanner Scott, LHP

Texas believes the team can contend in 2025. Most of the lineup from the 2023 championship squad is still around. Jacob deGrom will enter the season at full strength. But while owner Ray Davis is not expected to authorize the huge expenditures the team required to assemble most of the roster, maybe there is enough room to add someone like Scott. He was the most valuable reliever in baseball these past two seasons, according to FanGraphs. When he throws strikes, he looks indomitable. He owned Shohei Ohtani during the postseason. He can close or he can put out fires. For a team looking to return to October, he makes a lot of sense.

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)

Kyle Higashioka, C

The long-term future of the Rays looks murky. And the short-term outlook, for the first time in a while, doesn’t look all that bright. Tampa Bay finished below .500 last season for the first time since 2017. Last summer’s teardown netted an influx of talent, but little of it is close to reaching the majors. In the interim, as the ownership group sorts out the living situation, the big-league club needs a catcher. Higashioka, a former Yankees backup, has plenty of experience in the American League East. He’s a solid defender who smacked 17 homers with San Diego in 2024.

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San Francisco Giants (80-82)

Willy Adames, SS

Buster Posey, the future Hall of Fame catcher turned minority owner turned new chief baseball executive, opened the offseason by surrounding himself with trusted confidants. We shall see how it goes. Posey has been open about the team’s desire to add a new shortstop. Adames is the best player at the position on the market — and perhaps the best position player on the market besides Juan Soto. He offers power and stability, and should be able to land a nine-figure deal.

Boston Red Sox (81-81)

Max Fried, LHP

The Red Sox are shopping at the top of the starting pitching market this winter, and if you fiddle the knobs, you can make a case for Fried over Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell. Over the past three seasons, Fried has posted a lower ERA (2.80) than Burnes and Snell. He has thrown more innings than Snell and with a better strikeout-to-walk ratio. His approach is based on generating soft contact rather than swings and misses. You get the picture. All three are pretty good, and all three have some flaws. Fried comes with health concerns. He missed a good chunk of time in 2023 and a few starts in 2024 as he dealt with a forearm issue. (The forearm, any doctor will tell you, is connected to the elbow.) But when he takes the mound, Fried tends to be excellent.

Minnesota Twins (82-80)

Randal Grichuk, OF

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Any time an executive describes an upcoming offseason approach as “creative,” the translation is easy: It’s not going to involve spending a lot of money. The Twins are banking on better health from their top trio of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis to carry them back into the postseason. They could still make some tweaks on the margins, like adding Grichuk, a right-handed hitter to complement left-handed-hitting corner outfielders Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Grichuk mashed lefties for Arizona last year, with a .914 OPS in 184 plate appearances.

Chicago Cubs (83-79)

Jack Flaherty, RHP

Flaherty made the most of his pillow-contract season in 2024. He logged more innings than he had since 2019, when he looked like a budding ace in St. Louis. He thrived in Detroit and became the No. 1 starter for the eventual World Series champions in Los Angeles. Flaherty would like to stay with the Dodgers, but they may have their sights set a bit higher. The Cubs could use some stability in the rotation.

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)

Nick Pivetta, RHP

A new era is dawning in St. Louis, where John Mozeliak is a year away from handing over the keys of the franchise to former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom. Bloom acquired Pivetta with Boston back in 2020. Pivetta puts up tantalizing peripheral numbers and misses a lot of bats. If he could ever cut down on his home run rate, he might look like a No. 2 or No. 3 starter. Perhaps he could realize that fate in St. Louis.

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Seattle Mariners (85-77)


Pete Alonso may bring his polar bear moniker to the Pacific Northwest. (Al Bello / Getty Images)

Pete Alonso, 1B

Perhaps more than any other player, Alonso is waiting to see where Juan Soto lands. The Mets harbor interest in bringing back Alonso, a homegrown star. The team has a backup plan, though, in the form of infielder Mark Vientos. And the Mariners are so desperate for offense, especially from the infield corners, that the front office could ignore Alonso’s lack of on-base skills and pay a premium for his power.

Detroit Tigers (86-76)

Sean Manaea, LHP

The Tigers arrived in October ahead of schedule this year. A reunion between manager A.J. Hinch and third baseman Alex Bregman makes a lot of sense, but the price will be steep and Detroit would like to create runway at the position for former first-round pick Jace Jung. The club’s needs in the rotation are the most acute. The team made it to the postseason last year utilizing Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal and a boatload of bullpen games. Detroit could make a commitment to Manaea, who thrived after shifting his arm angle to mimic the other Cy Young award winner in 2024, Chris Sale.

Kansas City Royals (86-76)

Clay Holmes, RHP

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The addition of Jonathan India fulfilled the team’s desire for a leadoff hitter and likely foreclosed on a serious pursuit of a more expensive second baseman who can bat leadoff: Gleyber Torres. Going after Holmes, a quality reliever who buckled beneath the weight of closing for the Yankees, could be a worthwhile investment. Holmes still generated whiffs and missed barrels in 2024 even while blowing saves. His arsenal would deepen the Royals bullpen and offer more high-leverage options for manager Matt Quatraro.

Houston Astros (88-73)


Alex Bregman might still be in a Houston uniform next season. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)

Alex Bregman, 3B

Jim Crane has let homegrown stars walk before. Maybe Bregman will meet the same fate as Carlos Correa and George Springer. Or maybe Crane will recognize the lack of external or internal options to replace Bregman at third base and authorize general manager Dana Brown to do what it takes to keep the former No. 2 overall pick. Jose Altuve has already made his case to the brass. If the Astros want to keep their run going, they’ll likely need to keep Bregman around.

Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

With Christian Walker entering free agency, the Diamondbacks need a first baseman. With his contract in St. Louis expiring, Paul Goldschmidt needs a home. Sometimes the stories write themselves. Goldschmidt was one of the best Diamondbacks in franchise history. This could be a charming way for Goldschmidt, 37, to put a bow on his resume for the Hall of Fame. Or it could end badly, as Goldschmidt saw his production crater in 2024, only two years removed from winning the National League MVP. Such are the perils of being romantic about baseball.

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New York Mets (89-73)

Juan Soto, OF

Scott Boras referred to Soto as “the Mona Lisa of the museum.” Steve Cohen is baseball’s most prolific art collector. We looked like knuckleheads last year when our galaxy-brained take on Shohei Ohtani led us to forecasting him joining the Texas Rangers. No need to complicate things. Cohen has the deepest pockets. He will dip into them to sign Soto to the richest (present-day value, for sure) contract in baseball history.

Atlanta Braves (89-73)

Walker Buehler, RHP

Atlanta will need to replace Max Fried and Charlie Morton in the starting rotation. It won’t take a long-term deal to land Buehler, who starred in October for the Dodgers after a difficult regular season as he returned from his second Tommy John surgery. Buehler lives for the postseason, and the Braves expect to be there.

Baltimore Orioles (91-71)

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

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The winter offers the first test for owner David Rubenstein’s willingness to spend. Cot’s Contracts projected the club’s current payroll commitments for 2025 at $90 million. That number will rise in the coming years as young hitters reach arbitration. There is plenty of room for Rubenstein to make a splash with a starter. Burnes and Fried make sense — but will the precedent set by Snell’s deal price the Orioles out? We will believe they are spending when we see it. Until then, Eovaldi would work as a battle-tested, well-regarded veteran.

Cleveland Guardians (92-69)

Matthew Boyd, LHP

Boyd stabilized the Cleveland rotation during the final two months of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the summer of 2023. His output might not have been substantial enough to convince the industry that his days of injury are a thing of the past. Another season in Cleveland couldn’t hurt.

San Diego Padres (93-69)

Jurickson Profar, OF

Profar delivered the best season of his career after signing a $1 million deal with the Padres. The marriage between player and team appeared ideal. Profar lengthened the dynamic San Diego lineup. He played the outfield with flair. He probably won’t put up another season with a .380 on-base percentage, but the Padres would do well to bring him back.

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Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)

Michael Soroka, RHP

Soroka put together an excellent rookie campaign with Atlanta in 2019 before injuries derailed his career. He flopped as a starter for the White Sox last season. But after entering the bullpen in the middle of May, he became an effective, multi-inning weapon. Sounds perfect for the Brewers, one of the sport’s best utilizers of “out getters” like Soroka.

New York Yankees (94-68)

Christian Walker, 1B

Let’s make this clear: The priority for the Yankees is Juan Soto. The priority is Juan Soto. The priority is Juan Soto. But if you didn’t CTRL-F “Yankees” on your browser, you’ll see that Steve Cohen has scotched that possibility within this exercise. So the Yankees will have to regroup. If Soto signs elsewhere, Hal Steinbrenner will reallocate those resources to improve the lineup and the rotation. The smoothest fit would involve signing Walker, a quietly consistent performer who would be a significant upgrade over Anthony Rizzo both with his bat and with his glove.

Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)

Jeff Hoffman, RHP

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The Phillies are hanging on the periphery of the Soto talks and pondering how trading a position player might reshape and revitalize the roster. The bullpen will require some reinforcements, too. Dave Dombrowski found a gem when he inked Hoffman to a minor-league deal heading into 2023. Hoffman blossomed into a high-leverage arm who made the All-Star team in 2024. He will cost much more this time. John Middleton can afford it.

Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)

Roki Sasaki, RHP

A lot can happen between now and Jan. 15, when the Chiba Lotte Marines can post Sasaki and permit him to sign with a big-league club. And the Dodgers are poised to do a lot, if they so choose, even after adding Snell. The team can still afford Soto. There are potential reunions with Walker Buehler, Teoscar Hernández, Kiké Hernández, Blake Treinen or even Joc Pederson. Andrew Friedman has reached the state of optionality he always craves, in which no moves are off the board and no matter what happens this winter the Dodgers will enter 2025 as the World Series favorites.

So the Dodgers will be busy between now and January. But when Sasaki hits the market, it still makes the most sense for him to choose Los Angeles, join a rotation that includes Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and deepen the team’s foothold in the Japanese market.

(Illustration: Meech Robinson, The Athletic; Photos: Sarah Stier, Greg Fiume, Luke Hales, John Fisher, Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)

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