Sports
What we learned in MLB's first month of the season, an unpredictable and electric April
So what do you know. We made it through April. What a bizarre month.
Taylor Ward outhomered a guy who hit 54 homers last year (Matt Olson). Maikel Garcia had more extra-base hits than Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Ronel Blanco has been the best starting pitcher on the Astros. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner (Blake Snell) has been the worst starting pitcher on the Giants.
Josh Hader’s ERA is over 6.00. Brennan Bernardino’s ERA is under 1.00.
Why do we even pay attention to this stuff?
You think LeBron James has ever had 25 games like Aaron Judge’s first 25 games (.191/.319/.383 slash line)? It’s not even possible — not in that sport. But baseball — well, it’s not that sport.
“It’s just a different sport,” one American League executive was saying the other day. “But that’s why I love our game — because it’s so unpredictable.”
Yeah, it can be a wacky ride on the Tilt-A-Whirl, all right. So it can be difficult to know what to make of baseball in April. But hey, it’s your lucky day. We’re here to help you make sense of it — with your favorite column and ours: What We Learned in April.
1. Baseball is hard
Paul Goldschmidt, just two years removed from an MVP season, is one of the many big-name players off to poor starts. (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
We shouldn’t need a reminder of this. But baseball is hard.
Ask Aaron Judge (see above). Ask Paul Goldschmidt (four extra-base hits in April). Ask Julio Rodríguez (three extra-base hits all month). Ask Corbin Carroll (slugging .246 this season). Ask Alex Bregman (hitting .216, with no homers until his last game of the month).
But not just them. Ask some of the biggest shooting-star prospects in baseball.
“I think of other names,” said another exec, who spends a lot of time on scouting and player development. “Like Jackson Holliday (just sent down by the Orioles after going 2-for-34). Like Darell Hernaiz (who’s at .174/.264/.174 for the A’s). Like Victor Scott II (who was 5-for-59 for the Cardinals before being demoted). Look at those three. Look at what they’ve done. They’ve hit worse than pitchers.”
There are many more names, of course. Just remember those names are guys who have been great at baseball all their lives. But this April, they haven’t been that great. And mostly, it all comes down to this:
Baseball is hard. Harder than ever. As velocities creep up. As pitch shapes are scientifically designed in the lab to devour bats. As AI-generated data says: Throw it there, and this dude can’t hit it.
“You know, it’s so rare that the best players play their best for 162 games in 186 days — from day one,” said one of the execs quoted above. “That’s just not how it works.”
But why should that stop us from overreacting when we look at stars hitting .177 on April 29? Overreacting to April is a beautiful baseball tradition. So don’t make us stop. It’s what we do best. But when you hear us do that, feel free to hit us with those three magic words: Baseball is hard. It’s true!
2. Current state of the Astros’ dynasty: Rickety
The Houston Astros have 10 wins all season. They used to think nine wins was a disappointing postseason. But here they are, 10-19 after 29 games. So they’re officially in the danger zone. Not just this year, but as they return to Earth’s orbit in the seasons beyond this year.
Before they journeyed to Mexico last weekend and bludgeoned the cliff-diving Rockies twice, the Astros were just 7-19. Did you know only one team in history has started a season 7-19 or worse and made it to the postseason? And that team — the 1914 “Miracle” Braves — pulled off that fabled miracle 110 years ago.
So the canyon these Astros have dug for themselves is deep — so deep that both the history and the math say they’re a really bad bet to recover.
Here’s the history: Forget the 7-19 part. You can even forget all the years before the wild-card era (1995-present). In this era, since 1995, only three teams have been 12 games under at any point in the season and survived to play baseball in October. Just one team — the 2005 Astros — has done that after falling more than 12 games under.
Now here’s the math: The AL’s lowest wild-card seed last year won 89 games. To get to 89 wins, the Astros would have to go 79-54 from here. So they would have to play like a 96-win team the rest of the way. Which means, said one exec, “that even if they play like a 90-win team, they’ll win 84 games. So it’s a huge hole. It’s a massive hole.”
Yet another exec we spoke with said, matter-of-factly: “I’m not a betting man, but if I were betting a buck, I’d bet they’ll make the playoffs — still.”
Wait. What about what history tells us about teams that start the way these Astros started? “Those teams didn’t have the projections or the expectations that this team has,” he said. Plus six games out in the division, with 133 to play, doesn’t seem out of the reach of a roster like this, he added.
Maybe he’s right. Maybe that hole isn’t as massive as it looks. But what if it is? That possibility has rival front offices already wondering what a trade deadline Astros sell-off might look like.
They have no trouble imagining Justin Verlander, Alex Bregman and Ryan Pressly (all prospective 2024 free agents) getting dealt. But what about Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez — both free agents after 2025?
It’s a fascinating topic … except for one thing. Remember owner Jim Crane’s etched-in-stone quote after extending Jose Altuve a couple of months ago: “While I’m here, the window (to win) will never close.”
We reminded the execs we polled of Crane’s words. They pointed at his team’s declining farm system and already hefty payroll. So can the Astros keep that window open indefinitely? Really?
“Good luck with that,” one AL exec said.
GO DEEPER
What’s next for José Abreu and the Astros after option agreement?
3. Spring training is underrated
Blake Snell exits his third start for the Giants after allowing five runs in 4 2/3 innings. (John Hefti / USA Today)
Let’s check in on “the Boras Five.” That would be Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and J.D. Martinez — the five prominent Scott Boras clients who waited out the market all winter and didn’t find a team until March.
Snell: 0-3, 11.57 ERA after three starts, just went on the injured list with an adductor strain
Chapman: .222/.266/.385, similar to his numbers from May of last year
Bellinger: .226/.320/.440, just went on the IL with fractured ribs
Montgomery: 1-1, 2.70 after two starts, even beat Snell in one of those
Martinez: Injured his back during extended spring training, only debuted Friday
Those five will collect a combined $101.37 million this season. There’s plenty of time for their play to match that money. But first, this word from our imaginary sponsors:
Spring training is more meaningful than it sometimes appears.
Just ask the guys who miss it — and the front-office minds who roll the dice and sign those guys anyway.
“How many times,” mused an NL exec, “have we seen guys try to hold out, then sign late, and the agent the whole time is saying ‘Oh, he’s fine. I’ve got him throwing.’ And it’s not the same. I don’t know what the percentage is, but I bet it’s high, that somewhere early in the season, it bites them, and they end up being injured and missing more time. Then you kick yourself as a GM, going: ‘I knew better than this.’”
Well, it turns out MLB Network’s Research Department has looked into that. They furnished us with a list of notable recent free agents who didn’t sign until March. Then we looked at how April went for the biggest names on that list.
The Pitchers
| PITCHER | DATE SIGNED | APRIL |
|---|---|---|
|
Lance Lynn, 2018 |
March 12 |
0-3, 8.37 ERA |
|
Jake Arrieta, 2018 |
March 12 |
3-1, 3.49 ERA |
|
Greg Holland, 2018 |
March 31 |
0-1, 7.36 ERA, 0 saves |
The Hitters
| HITTER | DATE SIGNED | APRIL |
|---|---|---|
|
Carlos Correa, 2022 |
March 22 |
.243/.309/.324, 1 HR |
|
Trevor Story, 2022 |
March 23 |
.224/.292/.299, 0 HR |
|
Nick Castellanos, 2022 |
March 23 |
.300/.374/.475, 3 HR |
A few words about that group:
A) Not much good came out of the 2022 lockout, but at least it gave us a handy database of free agents who signed really late.
B) none of those three pitchers went on to have the kind of season they were signed to have — but especially Holland, who had led the NL in saves the year before. In his very first outing for the Cardinals, nine days after signing, he walked four in one-third of an inning and walked in the winning run. Four months, 32 outings and a 7.92 ERA later, he was released. So that went well!
Look, this is a small sample. We don’t know how it will apply to the Boras Five. But is spring training really meaningless? Not if you’re a free agent, said one exec we surveyed.
“The routine, the process of getting ready for a major-league season, can’t just happen in two weeks,” he said. “It’s everything. It’s the preparation on the field. It’s getting settled with new surroundings and new environments, new coaches, new teammates. It’s getting an apartment or a place to live.
“There’s a lot of things you have to handle when you sign late. And baseball is just one of those things.”
4. But here’s the good news for Scott Boras: Juan Soto
Will Juan Soto land a $500 million deal this winter? Things are looking up. (Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
In last year’s first edition of the What We Learned column, we made this regrettable pronouncement: Juan Soto should have taken the Nationals’ money!
Ehhhh, have we mentioned that overreacting to April is one of those things we’re best at?
Juan Soto, San Diego Padre, didn’t have the look of a generational talent. But Juan Soto, New York Yankee? That guy might have a future.
In his first 30 games in The Pinstripes, Soto bombed seven homers and reached base 60 times. Look at all the players in history who have done that in their first 30 games as a Yankee:
Juan Soto, 2024
(don’t go looking for the other names … he’s it!)
“What happened in San Diego did not surprise me,” said one exec who has known Soto for years, “because I think it shocked the hell out of him that the team that signed him, groomed him and developed him was the same team that traded him. And then the reality of that hit him. And he was on the other side of the country, as far away as he could be from the Dominican (Republic). So I wasn’t surprised. I really wasn’t.”
But now here’s Soto, in the Bronx, leading the Yankees in average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, homers, RBIs and runs scored. And most of the execs we surveyed now think he’s a lock to sign a deal when he reaches free agency this winter that tops the $440 million the Nationals offered him in 2022. We should mention, though, that opinion wasn’t unanimous.
One exec mentioned the piece Brittany Ghiroli wrote in The Athletic about Soto’s adjustment issues in San Diego — and said that would “scare the absolute crap out of me” if his team was thinking about dangling half a billion dollars in front of Soto.
The Yankees, obviously, wouldn’t have to worry about that unknown. But if this turns into a negotiation involving only a couple of teams, “how big is it going to get?” the same exec asked. “I question if (the contract) is going to start with a five at that point.”
Whether it will or it won’t is a mystery to be solved many months from now. But either way, you won’t have to worry about whether Juan Soto will be able to afford that brand new 4K Ultra HD flat screen for his basement.
GO DEEPER
Three takeaways from Juan Soto’s first month with the Yankees: ‘Once-in-a-generation’
5. Ohtani’s latest trick: Leading the league in tunnel vision
The spotlight on the start of his Dodgers career hasn’t appeared to faze Shohei Ohtani. (Geoff Burke / USA Today)
We already knew that Shohei Ohtani was Superman. But it turns out we were selling him short. What he really is, is Superhuman.
That’s a gig that doesn’t come with a cape, a side gig as a geeky newspaper guy or a date with Lois Lane. But it’s just the latest reason to look at Shohei the Magnificent and ask: “What can’t he do?”
Entering Tuesday, more than a month into his first season as a Dodger, Ohtani had a 189 OPS+. That would be a career best even for him.
He fired off an amazing 22 extra-base hits in his first 30 games, putting him on pace for a ridiculous, Ruthian total of 119.
And those 22 extra-base hits in 30 games? That’s tied for the second most by any player in the modern era who had just changed teams — and the most since Hack Wilson joined the Cubs … 98 years ago.
On one hand, Ohtani hasn’t mixed in any 14-strikeout games on the mound, due to ligament issues that are currently under repair. On the other hand, he’s had kind of an eventful month off the field.
This is not the place for a recap of the life and times of Ippei Mizuhara. But imagine how you’d perform in your job if you woke up and found out the person you spent countless hours a day with was under multiple federal investigations … and ohbytheway, you would never see him again.
This is, basically, the Tunnel Vision Olympiad. And as Shohei is busy scarfing up gold medals in that competition, the execs in our survey were in disbelief at how he’s been able to do what he does.
“I don’t know why it’s not a bigger story on Planet Earth what this guy is doing,” one exec said.
“It’s incredible,” another said. “He moved to a new environment and a new team. He had about as big a distraction as you could possibly have. And he seems unaffected by it. His ability to focus and just be incredible is one of a kind. It’s unique. Nobody can do what he does.”
6. The word for Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz: Superstars
There comes that moment in the life of every great player when the rest of civilization comes to realize what he is. For Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz, that moment felt like it arrived last month.
Unless you live in the 816 area code, you might think there’s no reason to stop what you’re doing when Royals highlights flip across the screen. OK, here’s a reason to reevaluate that thought.
Bobby Witt Jr., you are ridiculous 🤯
(via @MLB)
pic.twitter.com/cFLdmpOXJA— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 28, 2024
Bobby Witt Jr., friends. He’s a force of nature.
Sprint speed: 30.3 feet/second, 1st among full-time players
Hard-hit rate: 59 percent, 5th in MLB
Defensive Runs Saved: 6, 1st among MLB shortstops
Arm strength: 90.1 mph, 3rd among MLB shortstops
“’I’ll tell you what he’s done, in my opinion,” said an NL exec. “By having him step up to become that superstar, what he’s done is cause Salvy Perez to step up his game and get back to being the player that he has been.”
Excellent point. That’s what superstars do. They elevate everyone around them. Speaking of which … Elly De La Cruz. We’re starting to get the impression he’s good at doing things other humans can’t do.
Elly De La Cruz threw this ball 106.9 miles per hour 😯 pic.twitter.com/JgddfUlFuW
— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) April 30, 2024
Let’s summarize Elly’s month for the Reds: Switch hit inside-the-park and outside-the-park homers in the same game. … Stole home. … Hit three home runs that sailed a projected 443 feet or farther. … Stole three bases in a game twice. … Hit as many home runs (eight) as Pete Alonso. … Even was alleged to have thrown a baseball at an unheard of 106.9 miles per hour, except (very unfortunately) Statcast later told us that, well, no he didn’t.
But hang on. There’s more. The Reds started playing baseball four years after the Civil War. Records are a little sketchy from that era. But over the past 110 seasons, only one Red — Eric Davis — had ever had any calendar month in which he stole at least 17 bases and hit more than one home run.
Elly De La Cruz just stole 17 bases and hit eight homers in the first full calendar month of this season (and stole 18 altogether, counting March). Why do we think there might be more months like that in his future?
“The tools are insane,” said one exec. “But the improvements that he’s made are the type of improvements that superstars make when they’re young. His ability, his approach at the plate, the things that he does, at-bat to at-bat and game-to-game, show you that he is going to be an absolute (laughs) — ‘superstar’ doesn’t even capture it, more like a unique generational talent.”
Superstar doesn’t even capture it. Whoa. No wonder he showed up in this column.
7. The White Sox, Rockies and Marlins are on ’62 Mets Watch
Let the record show that 62 years ago, on their way to becoming the losingest team of modern times, Casey Stengel’s 1962 Mets (final record: 40-120) won 11 of their first 30 games. Do the 2024 White Sox, Rockies and Marlins even want to know that? Let’s go with no.
As they flipped their calendars to May, the White Sox were 6-24. The Rockies were 7-22. The Marlins were 7-24. So they’re already a combined 50 games under .500!
They’ve been outscored by a total of 213 runs. They’ve ripped off losing streaks of nine, seven, seven, six, six and five games. Their starting pitchers are a combined 10-43. Their relievers have teamed up for eight more blown saves (19) than saves (11).
So is it nuts to say they’re making Casey’s Mets look like the Big Red Machine?
The Rockies have played 29 games — and trailed at some point in every one of them. That broke a record set by Farmer Ray’s 1910 St. Louis Browns, who fell behind in each of their first 28 games of the season … on the way to losing 107 times. Let’s blame Coors Field!
The Marlins made the playoffs last year. They rode that wave this year by losing more games before May 1 (24) than any team in National League history. They’re 3-15 at home. They didn’t lose their 15th home game last year until June 20. Good times.
The White Sox went into Tuesday night with 79 runs scored all season. The Dodgers scored their 79th run on April 9. The White Sox also got shut out at some point in every one of their first eight series of the season. Want to guess how many other teams have ever done that? None would be a shrewd guess.
So that’s quite a start. Is there a 120-loss season in there someplace? How could we rule that out?
“Before I saw the White Sox, I didn’t see how it was possible to lose 120 games,” said one AL exec. “Now I’m not so sure.”
“But at least the White Sox just started a rebuild,” said another AL exec. “They arguably should have started it a couple of years ago, but whatever. And their best player (Luis Robert Jr.) is hurt. And they just traded Dylan Cease. So you can say they’re on a path to something. But when you look at the Rockies’ roster … (big pause)
“I just find it shocking,” he continued, “that they’re in a division with the Dodgers, the Giants, the Padres and the Diamondbacks. And they are nowhere close to even being the fourth best team in that division.”
Oh, and one more thing: It’s a bad time to tank! The White Sox and Rockies both have top-six draft picks this year … which means they can’t pick higher than 10th next year, thanks to the new anti-tanking rules in the 2022 collective bargaining agreement. So as bad as this season looks for both of those teams, it’s hard to fathom it’s even worse than you think!
GO DEEPER
Weird & Wild: Could the White Sox lose more than the ’62 Mets? They’re off to a great start!
8. Mason Miller and Jared Jones are a show
You know that section we rolled out earlier about Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz? This is the pitching version.
Mason Miller just finished his first month as the A’s closer. Wow.
Jared Jones just finished his first month as a starting pitcher for the Pirates. Unbe-freaking-lievable.
They’re the answer to this assignment: Pick two young pitchers to watch in a sport full of rocket launchers. Except they have to be two you’d never spent 30 seconds thinking about before this April, pitching for teams that never make it on national TV’s radar.
We’ll accept nominations for Tarik Skubal or Cole Ragans or Nick Lodolo. But it’s our column. And our nomination is these two guys.
Mason Miller has already thrown 86 pitches at 100 mph or harder this year. Only one pitcher in baseball (Michael Kopech, 53) is even within 50 of him. Can it actually be possible that this dude has hit 100-plus on more than 43 percent of the pitches he’s thrown this season? It is, all right. Nobody else is even at 20 percent.
He has struck out 15 hitters on fastballs this year … and all 15 of them were on pitches that splattered triple digits all over the radar board. Five of those strikeouts came in his two saves at Yankee Stadium last month. The Statcast readings on those five pitches: 103.3, 102.5, 102.5, 101.9, 101.3. That happened … in real life.
Absolute GAS from Mason Miller against the top of the Yankees’ order to secure the save ⛽️🔥
🎥: @PitchingNinja pic.twitter.com/AiCZVTuGMa
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 22, 2024
Jared Jones, meanwhile, has piled up 105 swings-and-misses in the first six starts of his career. Seriously? That’s the most swings-and-misses by any pitcher in the majors — and nearly all of the pitchers who are even within 20 whiffs of him are guys who have thrown at least 100 more pitches than he has.
He’s averaging 17.5 whiffs per start, even though he only works long enough to serve up 81 pitches a start. Gerrit Cole averaged 9.2 whiffs per start in his first season as a Pirate — and has only hit 17.5 in one season over his career (2019). So … get the picture? We have a true dominator on our hands.
Jared Jones just KILLED a man. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/rcdh9KbbSK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 22, 2024
But we’re not the only ones gushing. Want to hear actual baseball executives gush right along with us?
“Mason Miller — oh my God,” said one exec. “He could throw a marshmallow through a battleship.”
“The biggest story on the Pirates is the Jared Jones extravaganza every five or six days,” said another exec. “He’s awesome. And when they bring up (Paul) Skenes and they have both of those two guys, you’ll be going, ‘Oh (bleep), we’ve got both these guys on tap in this series?’ That’s going to be scary for a lot of teams.”
GO DEEPER
How a diabetes diagnosis turned around A’s closer Mason Miller’s career
GO DEEPER
‘Sliders’: How the Pirates are managing young arms, a Leiter family milestone and more
9. Baseball is winning the war on dead time
Yeah, yeah. We know The New Rules were last year’s story, not this year’s story. But that doesn’t mean there’s not stuff going on in Year Two. So here goes.
We’ll let other people debate whether the pitch clock causes injuries. We were curious about the impact of the two seconds MLB shaved off that clock with runners on base this season (from 20 seconds to 18). It’s all part of the war on dead time. And the data is clear. Dead time is losing that war.
AVERAGE TIME BETWEEN BALLS IN PLAY
2022: 3 minutes, 42 seconds
2023: 3 minutes, 13 seconds
2024: 3 minutes, 10 seconds
AVERAGE TIME BETWEEN PLATE APPEARANCES
2022: 2 minutes, 29 seconds
2023: 2 minutes, 8 seconds
2024: 2 minutes, 6 seconds
AVERAGE TIME, 9-INNING GAME
2021: 3 hours, 10 minutes
2022: 3 hours, 3 minutes
2023: 2 hours, 39 minutes
2024: 2 hours, 36 minutes
GAMES OF 3:30 OR LONGER*
2022: 28
2023: 3
2024: 1
(*before May 1, not including extra innings)
(Source: Baseball Reference)
MLB’s public goal was to trim five minutes off the average game time, which crept upward as last season wore on. That hasn’t quite happened. But the average time between balls in play is down to its lowest level since 2008. And the average time between plate appearances is now tighter than in any season in at least the last 25 years.
So we can argue about how many seconds to set the clock at, or the long-term impact on player health. But baseball is a rhythm sport. And if the pitch clock has done anything, it has restored the rhythm to a game that thrives on that rhythm.
As one AL exec put it, “the game is so much better now than it was 36 months ago. … Better tempo. More attractive to watch and to play. I don’t even think we’ve played a three-hour game yet. And that is awesome — for our fans and for our players.”
GO DEEPER
Guide to Year 2 of MLB’s new rules: The ‘cat-and-mouse’ game is on as the sport evolves
10. The biggest surprises: The Guardians, Royals … and Cardinals?
Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr. and company have the Royals rolling. (Melissa Tamez / USA Today)
You’d have a better chance predicting the Powerball numbers tonight than you would predicting the outcome of any baseball season. That was true in 1924. It’s just as true in 2024. There is always something we didn’t see coming.
But before we go further in this discussion, let’s address that thing we know some of you are thinking: We haven’t talked about the Braves or Orioles … or the Cubs or Phillies … or those defending World Series champs, the Rangers. We haven’t gotten to Mookie Betts or Gunnar Henderson or Josh Naylor … or Ranger Suárez or Shota Imanaga.
Right! If that’s what you’re thinking, we hear you. We get it. We’re sorry. We hate to disappoint you. But the What We Learned column wasn’t invented to be a recap of the month that was. It was invented to be a deep dive into lessons that month has taught us.
It isn’t every lesson. It may not be the same lessons you learned. It’s just stuff we found interesting — and that the front-office minds we surveyed found interesting. So with that out of the way …
We asked these execs to give us their biggest surprises so far. Here are the teams they named most.
THE GUARDIANS — In the first 25 games of his managerial career, Stephen Vogt’s Guardians went an amazing 18-7. We could only find two other managers in the wild-card era who went 18-7 or better — starting with Opening Day — to kick off their first big-league managerial gig: Alex Cora (19-6 with the 2018 Red Sox) and (speaking of surprises) Grady Little (18-7 with the 2002 Red Sox).
“For me, that’s one of the biggest surprises of the first month,” one exec said of Vogt and the Guardians. “I can’t get over how well they have responded. Because he’s replacing a guy, in (Terry Francona), who was the best players’ manager going. And now this guy comes in and, at least on the surface, looks to be the same kind of guy. They’ve responded. And, in a way, it almost looks like they’ve been reenergized.”
GO DEEPER
Polaroids, bat slams and ‘saying the stupidest thing’: Inside the Guardians’ scorching start
THE ROYALS — The 2023 Royals lost 106 games. That’s not usually the prelude to a trip to October. But if the 2024 postseason started today, the Royals would be playing in it. And that’s a testament not just to all the money they spent on pitching upgrades last winter but also to the most surprising offense in baseball. Who had the Royals outscoring the Astros?
“The Royals I think are the biggest true surprise,” said one rival exec. “They are pitching unbelievably. I think they’re third or fourth in the (American) League in (FanGraphs) WAR, which is really shocking to me. And that’s on top of the way they’re playing offensively, which is also shocking to me. We thought they were improved — like sniffing .500 improved — but not like this. … Is it going to last all season? I don’t know. But it’s cool for a town that loves baseball.”
THE CARDINALS — We never said all these surprises had to be good surprises. So sure, this qualifies. To see the Cardinals in last place … and last in their league in homers … and 28th in baseball in runs scored … with a pitching staff that has barely been league average (with a 108 ERA+) … it’s out of whack with all the preseason predictions that had them rebounding to win their division.
True, they finished last in the NL Central a year ago, too. But the last time the Cardinals finished last two years in a row was kind of a while ago — as in 1907 and 1908.
“It’s not so much you’re surprised they’re in last place,” said one exec. “It’s more surprising that they actually look like a last-place team.”
Is that what we expected? But just like all of this, it’s what we learned in a fascinating first month.
(Top image: Sean Reilly / The Athletic. Photos: Aaron Judge: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images; Shohei Ohtani: Michael Reaves / Getty Images; Elly De La Cruz: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
The transfer window has… closed.
For Europe’s leading football clubs, the chance to revamp, reshape and — in certain cases — reduce their squads is over, until January at least. It was another busy summer for Chelsea, while after years of bringing in significant funds by selling players, Brighton & Hove Albion transformed themselves into a buying club, spending almost £200million ($263m) to give new manager Fabian Hurzeler plenty of options.
Arsenal lured Euro 2024 luminaries Riccardo Calafiori and Mikel Merino to north London, Liverpool added Federico Chiesa to Arne Slot’s attacking options, and Manchester United were seen making some potentially sensible additions to their squad in their first summer of the INEOS era.
But who was the best buy? Who should have moved but didn’t? And which transfers went completely under the radar? Five of The Athletic’s writers offer their thoughts on another big-money summer.
Who was the best signing?
Mark Carey: Taking Kylian Mbappe out of the equation, I’m going for Joshua Zirkzee. I may live to regret it, but Zirkzee could be a key cog in the Erik ten Hag system, stitching Manchester United’s attack together more coherently than Bruno Fernandes’ hero-ball attempts. Zirkzee is not an out-and-out goalscorer, but he brings others into play beautifully. With a bit of time, he could have a major impact on United’s attack.
Oliver Kay: It’s weird. Nearly £2billion has been spent in the Premier League but I can’t really think of many deals that make me think, “Wow, that will definitely work.”
The ones that could work out best are some of the younger players, such as Yankuba Minteh to Brighton, Leny Yoro to Manchester United and Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall to Tottenham Hotspur. But in all those cases — and many others — they are big, big fees invested in potential rather than certainty. I like Liverpool’s deal for Federico Chiesa at that price, but there is a risk. For certainty, you’re probably looking at West Ham United’s deals for Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Maximilian Kilman. Boring, I know.
Archie Gray, Tottenham’s 18-year-old signing (Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images)
Seb Stafford-Bloor: Bergvall is an extraordinary talent. One of the benefits of Tottenham competing in the Europa League this season is that whether he gets Premier League minutes or not, Bergvall will have the opportunity to play and develop into something truly special. It’s rare to find skill, size and the ambition to change games all in the same player at that age, rarer still given that he had never played outside of Sweden’s Allsvenskan. He will evolve quickly, I’m certain of it, and that €10million (£8m; $11m) will be money extremely well spent.
James Horncastle: When a player who everyone expects or projects to go ends up staying, isn’t that like a signing? Nico Williams committing to Athletic Bilbao caught my attention, as did other examples of Basque loyalty, such as Martin Zubimendi turning down Liverpool to remain at Real Sociedad. Elsewhere, Roma fans descended en masse to Paulo Dybala’s house to thank him for refusing a salary package worth €75m from Al Qadsiah. If ever there was a player for whom Francesco Totti’s No 10 shirt should be passed down, it’s him.
Thom Harris: There are plenty that I really like across the continent. Teun Koopmeiners will bring luxurious technique and flexibility to Thiago Motta’s new-look Juventus, Yaser Asprilla should bring spark and creativity to Girona, while Paris Saint-Germain have snapped up one of French football’s brightest stars in Desire Doue. My favourite is closer to home, though — Mats Wieffer to Brighton. Constantly demanding the ball, he’s the box-to-box engine Hurzeler needed. He has the forward drive to bring the ball upfield and cause damage in the final third, too. At 24, there’s plenty of time for him to evolve into a real game-changer in the Premier League.
Will Mats Wieffer be a game-changing option for Brighton? (Warren Little/Getty Images)
What was the most surprising signing?
Kay: Newcastle signing Nottingham Forest’s unwanted backup goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos for £20million was certainly… surprising. Forest signing Elliot Anderson from Newcastle for £35million was also surprising. Likewise some of the players moving between Aston Villa, Chelsea and Everton just before the end of the financial year. Yes, the transfer window is full of surprises.
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Horncastle: Where do we start? The shameless June 30 shenanigans in England? Roma signing a Saudi player from the Saudi Pro League? The other free transfer in the Mbappe family this summer (Ethan to Lille)? How about Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui to Manchester United? Don’t get me wrong, they are both fine players, but I thought Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s new recruitment structure was supposed to be more original than allowing the coach whose position they seriously considered at the end of last season to continue reassembling his Ajax team from 2019. A positive surprise was Che Adams’ move to Torino, not to mention his instant impact, scoring the winner in a 2-1 win over Atalanta.
Che Adams has swapped English football for Serie A (Nicolo Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Stafford-Bloor: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea. Relationships matter in football but the £30million fee was a surprise, as was Dewsbury-Hall’s willingness to walk into a situation that is unlikely to end with him playing every week. Whatever faith Enzo Maresca has in him, that surely pales in comparison to the vested interest the Chelsea owners have in watching Enzo Fernandes, Moses Caicedo and Romeo Lavia starting in midfield, or any number of pricier options playing in those wide forward positions in his place. Hopefully, that proves misguided — he is a good player, he could become an England international — but he seems destined to be on loan at Everton within a year.
Harris: Rayo Vallecano have done this kind of thing before — it was around about this time three years ago that they signed Radamel Falcao — but I can’t really believe they’ve pulled off a deal for James Rodriguez. His club form has continued to wander in the past few years, but the 33-year-old was by far and away the best player at this year’s Copa America, registering six assists as he inspired Colombia’s run to the final. His left foot is still made of gold and Rayo are picking up a player motivated to keep match fit for the World Cup in 2026.
Can James Rodriguez bring his Copa America form to La Liga? (Irina R Hipolito/Europa Press via Getty Images)
Carey: It has to be Evanilson going from Champions League-battling Porto to Bournemouth. It’s a great coup for Andoni Iraola’s side and financially softened by the sale of Dominic Solanke, but it shows the pulling power of the Premier League. The Brazilian was averaging one goal every two games in Portugal, a similar return at Bournemouth would do very nicely.
Which club had the best window?
Stafford-Bloor: A left-field pick: RB Leipzig. Keeping Xavi Simons for a second season was extremely important and the addition of Antonio Nusa was bold and cleverly done — nobody knew about it until it was ready to be announced, with Club Bruges sworn to secrecy. Further back, 18-year-old midfielder Assan Ouedraogo is one of the brightest prospects in German football and the club are also excited about signing Arthur Vermeeren from Atletico Madrid. Yes, Dani Olmo has departed, but €60million was a big fee for a player who started just half of Leipzig’s games last season. Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda are both still at the club, too.
Harris: It has to be Brighton, doesn’t it? Owner Tony Bloom has finally dipped into some of the transfer profit over the last few windows and has picked up some prolific one-on-one dribblers to elevate the side on the transition. Minteh and Brajan Gruda are particularly exciting.
In Spain, Villarreal have recruited well and built a deep squad with plenty of interesting profiles under Marcelino; Willy Kambwala and Logan Costa look like astute reinforcements in defence, while young forward Thierno Barry will enjoy the service of assist-king Alex Baena after his move from Basel. All of that should allow them to push for Champions League qualification without any European football to contend with this season, even if the late departure of Arnaut Danjuma to top-four rivals Girona undoes much of their good work in the summer.
Yankuba Minteh should prove an astute pick-up for Brighton (Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images)
Horncastle: Not to labour the anti-consumerist point, but I like teams that spent the summer focusing on retention. National champions in less-resourced leagues (Bayer Leverkusen and Inter Milan) kept their best players. Mehdi Taremi’s free transfer to San Siro is straight out of the playbook of Inter president Giuseppe Marotta.
Where buying is concerned, Chelsea made Brighton cash-rich in a league otherwise constrained by profit and sustainability rules (PSR). The Ferdi Kadioglu, Georginio Rutter and Minteh signings are all good fun. Juventus have gone big in part because they have been able to sell players from their ‘Next Gen’ reserve team for pure accountancy profit. Scarily, Motta already has them playing excellent football without integrating new signings beyond Juan Cabal. Motta has limited himself to promoting more kids from their brilliant youth scheme.
Honourable mentions in selling terms for Manchester City (Julian Alvarez) and the much-derided Manchester United who, credit where it is due, have belatedly learned the art of the sale. Atalanta have been typically excellent across the board, too.
Kay: Again, I can’t really get carried away with excitement about any club’s business. I’m inclined to say West Ham, who have signed Wan-Bissaka, Kilman, Jean-Clair Todibo, Guido Rodriguez, Luis Guilherme, Crysencio Summerville and Niclas Fullkrug — but are those players guaranteed to make them that much better? I don’t think they are. Ditto Tottenham, Brighton, Nottingham Forest and others. I don’t see any club making the kind of jump that, say, Aston Villa and Bournemouth did last season.
Wan-Bissaka has moved to West Ham from Manchester United (Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images)
Carey: Trimming the fat is just as important as bringing in new blood and Tottenham have done well on that front. Waving goodbye to fringe players Oliver Skipp, Japhet Tanganga, Tanguy Ndombele, Ryan Sessegnon and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg means Ange Postecoglou has a sharpened focus in the squad. The youthful talents of Archie Gray, Bergvall and Wilson Odebert complement Solanke’s signing, making it a net positive for Spurs.
And which side had the worst window?
Kay: A lot of clubs haven’t addressed their greatest need: Liverpool and a deep-lying playmaker, Arsenal and a top-class centre-forward, Chelsea and Manchester United and various, Manchester City…? Well, they do lack depth in certain areas. But these are first-world problems, whereas Everton look very constrained. It’s nothing against the business they’ve done, but they needed three or four players who could come in and improve them immediately. With the appalling ownership situation dragging on, they’ve been unable to do that. There’s a lot of pressure on Tim Iroegbunam and (if it got through in time) Armando Broja to hit the ground running.
Carey: Don’t say Chelsea, don’t say Chelsea… I worry a little for Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have lost two key players in Kilman and Pedro Neto. I quite like the look of Yerson Mosquera at centre-back (returning from loan) and the arrival of Jorgen Strand Larsen up front, but Gary O’Neil’s squad has not improved from last season and that could be a concern.
Pedro Neto could be a significant loss for Wolves (Gustavo Pantano | MI News)
Harris: It’s been sad to see some of last season’s over-performers picked apart — Girona and Bologna lost some of their biggest names despite an exciting Champions League campaign on the horizon. I fear for Stade Brest after their third-place finish in Ligue 1 last season. Influential midfielder Kamory Doumbia has returned to Reims, talented centre-back Lilian Brassier has joined Marseille and Ludovic Ajorque has been loaned in to lead the line after two goals in 15 starts for Mainz last year. With a handful of loan signings and just under €2million spent on a backup defender, they haven’t quite pushed on as I’d hoped.
Stafford-Bloor: Everton. This might be overly informed by their start to the season and how concerning their two defeats were, but it is hard to see too many positives — beyond getting rid of Neal Maupay and his preposterous villainy. It’s not that there is much wrong with Jake O’Brien, Iliman Ndiaye and Tim Iroegbunam, and Jesper Lindstrom on loan could prove a smart move, but are any of those players going to alter the mood at Goodison Park? They are how Everton chose to spend the Amadou Onana money, but I want a bit more for my €50million.
Horncastle: Barcelona’s registration issues and the associated release of Ilkay Gundogan were embarrassing. Newcastle paid ‘how much?’ for Vlachodimos to be their third-choice goalkeeper and then developed a Marc Guehi obsession that amounted to nothing. Aston Villa were delighted to sign Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea only to leave them out of their first two squads and send the pair out on loan. Anyone who did deals that were finance first, football second gets marked down here.
Ilkay Gundogan’s return to Manchester City has helped Barcelona register the likes of Dani Olmo (Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
The deal you wanted to happen that didn’t
Stafford-Bloor: Leverkusen’s Jeremie Frimpong was available and affordable, but a move never happened. Beyond Frimpong’s obvious virtues — his attacking contributions, his timing, his speed and skill — he played all manner of roles for Leverkusen last season. Wing-back, winger, briefly even No 10, that versatility would have been an asset somewhere and Frimpong’s effervescent personality might have been fun in England or Spain.
Horncastle: Matt O’Riley to Atalanta. He would have been perfect for Gian Piero Gasperini but ended up at Brighton.
Harris: Richard Rios shone for Colombia at the Copa America, an energetic midfielder with street-football skills and defensive bite. There were a few weak links to Premier League sides but the 24-year-old remains at Brazilian champions Palmeiras for another summer.
Carey: Liverpool have enough in their squad to deal with Arne Slot’s midfield demands but having Zubimendi in the Premier League would have been hugely fun to watch. The metronomic control, the effortless passing and the joyous technique are something all fans want to see, but the Spaniard remained loyal to his local team, Real Sociedad — which you cannot begrudge.
Kay: I sometimes shudder when a top-class player comes to the Premier League at the tail-end of his career. It isn’t the 1990s anymore and such moves rarely go well these days — Bastian Schweinsteiger’s brief spell at Manchester United is a classic example — but I enjoyed the suggestion that Mats Hummels might fancy a swansong at Brighton. Is it still a possibility? I hope so.
The players who will be most upset at not moving
Carey: You could pick any number of Chelsea players. Maresca’s assessment of those frozen out has been honest and brutal when pushed on the topic. “At the moment the transfer window closes, they are not going to get minutes. I’ve already been clear with them and honest and this is the only reason.” No ambiguity there.
Kay: First of all, I’m glad Raheem Sterling and Jadon Sancho got their loan moves to Arsenal and Chelsea respectively. Both are talented enough to get back on track after a miserable two or three years since their previous transfers, even if Sancho seems to be swapping one dysfunctional club for another. I wonder whether Ben Chilwell will look at those moves and regret staying at Chelsea. It’s up to him whether he can force his way back into their plans or end up as the next Winston Bogarde.
Raheem Sterling was left in Chelsea’s ‘bomb squad’ this summer but moved to Arsenal on deadline day (Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images)
Stafford-Bloor: Jonathan Tah. He seemingly had his heart set on a move to Bayern Munich and had agreed to it weeks ago, but the back and forth between the clubs never led to anything — other than a public spat between Max Eberl, Bayern’s board member for sport, and Fernando Carro, Leverkusen’s CEO. Still, Tah might be in the right place. Beyond Leverkusen being defending champions and Bundesliga favourites, Xabi Alonso’s back three probably suits him better than the centre-back pairing Vincent Kompany is using. Tah has entered the final year of his contract and appears unwilling to sign an extension.
Horncastle: Will Adrien Rabiot be upset he still doesn’t have a club? He’s a free agent and has gone from enigma to sure thing these past two years. Guess Madame Rabiot (his mother, Veronique, is his agent) will have to compromise on salary and signing on fee.
Harris: Las Palmas goalkeeper Alvaro Valles caught the eye with his outstanding reflexes and nerveless distribution last season — he took 791 touches outside of his penalty area in his debut La Liga campaign, which is 451 more than any other ‘keeper in the division. The 26-year-old has one year remaining on his deal but made it clear from the start of the window that he had no intention of signing a new contract but Las Palmas failed to find a suitable buyer as deadline day dawned.
The transfer that passed you by
Kay: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s move to Saudi Arabia, his fourth transfer in two and a half years, is a development so predictable that I completely missed it.
Stafford-Bloor: Youssoufa Moukoko joining Nice. He and Borussia Dortmund had been bound for divorce for some time and it has long been clear that he was not developing as he should and that he was not going to get the game time to correct his career trajectory. And while plenty was written about his transfer situation, much of it without basis, it became easy to tune out the stories and focus instead on where Dortmund were headed next — to Serhou Guirassy and Max Beier, ultimately. But there he is in Nice and that feels like a good place — and league — for a personal re-boot.
Horncastle: Several of the players Chelsea have stockpiled. PSG doubling down on youth. They’ve spent €150m on Joao Neves, 19, Doue, 19, and Willian Pacho, 22. I also love a comeback story. Alexis Sanchez has returned to Udinese and James Rodriguez is in Madrid again with Rayo Vallecano.
Harris: The Turkish Super Lig is always a treasure trove for deals like this, but I didn’t initially see Ciro Immobile’s move to Besiktas. The 34-year-old is one of just eight players to score more than 200 goals in Serie A and I’m sure he’ll continue to find the back of the net as he approaches the twilight of his career.
Ciro Immobile is now operating in Turkey (Seskim Photo/MB Media/Getty Images)
Carey: Enzo Le Fee to Roma is a lovely bit of business that I missed. The 24-year-old is something of an analytics darling, but his technical ability is something to behold and it is great to see him make the move to Serie A.
A deal you think might happen in January…
Carey: Surely there has to be more chaos at Chelsea in the winter months? Expect to see several attacking players’ minutes limited, leading to some short-term loans in January.
Kay: I don’t know why, but I have the strangest feeling that Nottingham Forest will sign a middling international goalkeeper.
Harris: Barcelona’s Marc Bernal suffered a devastating anterior cruciate ligament tear at Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday, leaving Hansi Flick without a natural pivot at the base of midfield. I imagine that we’ll see Pedri, Marc Casado, Pablo Torre and maybe even defender Eric Garcia trialled there before Barca cut their losses and find their latest Oriol Romeu to see them through the winter.
Will Marc Bernal’s injury impact the January window? (Diego Souto/Getty Images)
Horncastle: Picture the scene: Romelu Lukaku invites Sky UK into his apartment overlooking the Bay of Naples. Relations with Antonio Conte aren’t what they were in the past. He misses… the green fields of Cobham, the crowded Chelsea gym, the feeling he could be sent out on loan at any time. He’d like to play for Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, but at the same time, he feels like he’s still got unfinished business with Chelsea…
Stafford-Bloor: Scott McTominay. Loan. Nottingham Forest.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
Sports
Booger McFarland points finger at Clemson's 'same stale offense' amid program's streak of disappointments
The Clemson Tigers faced a tough test in their season opener.
Head coach Dabo Swiney and the Tigers traveled to Atlanta for Saturday’s matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs — a team that’s won two of the past three College Football Playoff National Championships.
Clemson’s 34-3 loss to the Bulldogs was one of the most lopsided defeats of Swiney’s tenure. The loss sparked numerous questions about the direction of the program, but ESPN college football analyst Booger McFarland shared his thoughts on what he believed has contributed to the Tigers’ shortcomings in recent years.
Former NFL player and current NFL analyst Booger McFarland looks on before the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field on November 14, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
From McFarland’s point of view, a lack of creativity on the offensive side of the ball has held Clemson back. The Tigers only managed to produce 188 total yards of offense on Saturday.
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“I’m afraid to say it’s the same old thing,” McFarland during Saturday’s broadcast. “[There is] no creativity on offense. It’s been the same stale offense for four or five years. … If you’re a Clemson fan, you have to ask yourself, when are we going to change?”
Swiney’s approach to the transfer portal has been widely criticized. McFarland suggested that Swiney’s roster building philosophy would need to change in order for Clemson to have the most competitive roster possible.
Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney on the field before a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)
“Dabo chooses not to [use the portal], therefore, you’re going to have those lulls in the program,” McFarland said. “And I’m afraid, right now, they have a little bit of a lull.”
Aug 31, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) throws a pass against the Georgia Bulldogs in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. (Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)
Swiney was asked about the transfer portal after the blowout loss.
“People are going to say whatever they want to say,” Swinney said, via ClemsonWire. “It doesn’t matter what I say. People are going to say whatever they’re going to say. And when you lose like this, they’ve got every right to say whatever they want to say. So, say whatever you want to say, write whatever you want to write. That comes with it. That’s just part of it.”
Swiney and the Tigers will have an opportunity to get back on the winning track on Sept. 7 when they host Appalachian State.
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Sports
San Francisco 49ers rookie receiver Ricky Pearsall shot during attempted robbery in Union Square
Ricky Pearsall, the San Francisco 49ers’ rookie wide receiver and first-round draft pick, was shot during an attempted robbery in the city’s Union Square on Saturday afternoon.
Pearsall was stable, according to Supervisor Aaron Peskin’s office, which has been in communication with the San Francisco Police Department, and a suspect has been taken into custody. Peskin represents Union Square, a downtown district known for its high-end shopping, hotels and restaurants.
Mayor London Breed’s office said she was en route to San Francisco General Hospital, where Pearsall was taken for treatment.
“This afternoon, there was an attempted robbery in Union Square involving San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Ricky Pearsall and he was shot,” Breed wrote on social media. “SFPD was on scene immediately and an arrest of the shooter was made. My thoughts are with Ricky and his family at this time.”
San Francisco police officials issued a statement saying officers responded to a shooting at approximately 3:37 p.m. near the intersection of Geary Street and Grant Avenue, close to boutique shops such as Dolce & Gabbana and Saint Laurent.
“Upon arrival, officers located two male subjects suffering from injuries. Officers rendered aid and medics transported both subjects to a local hospital for further medical evaluation,” the statement said. “The suspect is in custody, and charges are pending at this time.”
Peskin said police told him the suspect tried to rob Pearsall of his Rolex watch, and that “Ricky wasn’t having any of it.”
A struggle ensued, Peskin said, and both Pearsall and the suspect “managed to get shot.”
Peskin said he was assured that Pearsall “does not have any life-threatening injuries.” He was shot in the chest, but the bullet did not hit any major organs.
The suspect was shot in the wrist, Peskin said.
Pearsall played for Arizona State and the University of Florida in college. The 49ers drafted him in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. He was sidelined with a shoulder injury during much of the NFL preseason.
The 49ers are scheduled to open their season against the New York Jets on Sept. 9.
“He’s good,” 49ers teammate Deebo Samuel wrote on social media after the shooting. “Thank god!!!!”
This is a developing story.
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