Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin
In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
| Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)
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The PGA Tour has announced that it will not be hosting an event in Hawaii during the 2027 season, ending a 56-year run of holding a tournament in The Aloha State. The change comes as the Tour and CEO Brian Rolapp have consistently teased a revamped schedule beginning next year.
The Tour was forced to cancel The Sentry at the start of the 2026 campaign due to the dying grass on the Plantation Course at Kapalua amid a local dispute with the company responsible for delivering water to the area.
An aerial view of the golf course from over the ocean prior to The Sentry at The Plantation Course at Kapalua on December 31, 2023 in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii. (Photo by Ben Jared/PGA TOUR) (Ben Jared/PGA TOUR)
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With The Sentry being canceled, the Sony Open at Waialae Country on Oahu served as the Tour’s season opener in ‘26, which was won by Chris Gotterup. The event was in the final year of its sponsorship, although the Tour has shared that it is working toward making the event the opening event on the PGA Tour Champions circuit.
Chris Gotterup of the United States celebrates with the trophy on the 18th green after his winning round of the Sony Open in Hawaii 2026 at Waialae Country Club on January 18, 2026 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images) (Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
The Tour’s removal of The Sentry and the Sony Open wipes out what has now turned into a traditional two-week stretch on the island to begin a new season.
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The PGA Tour did not share further details about the 2027 schedule upon its announcement about leaving Hawaii, but with Sentry reportedly being an event title-sponsor through 2035, it will need to find a new landing spot on the calendar. The logical stop would be Torrey Pines in San Diego, which checks the West Coast and great weather boxes, but the venue is also looking for a new sponsor, as its deal with Farmers Insurance ended in 2026.
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View of the 18th hole is seen during the final round of The Sentry at The Plantation Course at Kapalua on January 5, 2025 in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii. (Photo by Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images) (Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)
The Tour’s decision not to begin next season in Hawaii makes sense, as there are plenty of venues in the lower 48 states that are much easier to operate from, but the departure will have a tremendous financial impact on the state.
The Honolulu Star-Advertiser reports that The Sentry is estimated to have a $50 million annual impact on the community, while the Sony Open directly generates an estimated $100 million in revenue per year, plus another $1 million per year to Friends of Hawaii charities.
Martin Dugard is a prolific author and writer. He’s also an assistant cross-country coach at Santa Margarita after being head coach at JSerra for 15 years.
His newest book is “The Long Run,” which discusses the 1970s running boom and is a narrative history of four who sparked the marathon boom: Steve Prefontaine, Frank Shorter, Joan Benoit Samuelson and Grete Waitz.
He’s going to have a book signing on Saturday at 1 p.m. at Barnes & Noble, 26751 Aliso Creek Rd., Aliso Viejo.
Don’t be surprised if he tries to run from Rancho Santa Margarita to his book signing.
This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.
For years, Stephen A. Smith’s many football blunders have been easy enough to explain away.
He’s not an NFL guy (remember when he said the three key players for a game were three guys who weren’t playing in the game?)
Stephen A. Smith falsely claimed the Warriors haven’t made the playoffs since 2022, but Golden State reached the second round in both 2023 and 2025. (Jerome Miron/Imagn Images)
He’s definitely not a college football guy (remember when he called Jalen Milroe Jalen “Milroy” multiple times and then read the wrong stat line after a College Football Playoff game?).
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ESPN forces him into those conversations because First Take has to talk football, and Smith knows that football is the most popular sport in the country and he needs to be seen as an authority (even though he isn’t).
But Monday’s latest mistake is a lot tougher to excuse, because this time Smith wasn’t talking about the NFL or college football. He was talking about the Golden State Warriors, one of the defining NBA dynasties of the last decade.
In other words, he was talking about the sport and the league that’s supposed to be his bread and butter.
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While discussing whether Steve Kerr has coached his last game with Golden State, Smith confidently stated the Warriors “haven’t been back to the playoffs since that championship in 2022.”
Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr looks on during a game against the Sacramento Kings. (Robert Edwards/Imagn Images)
That’s not even close to true. Not only did Golden State make the playoffs last season, but they also reached the postseason in 2023. Last year, the Warriors made the playoffs, beat the Rockets in seven games and advanced to the second round before losing to the Timberwolves. In 2023, they beat the Sacramento Kings in the first round and before losing to the Lakers in the Western Conference semifinals.
So, Smith wouldn’t even have been right if he said they haven’t won a playoff series since 2022. But he didn’t say that. He said they didn’t make the playoffs in any of the past four years, except they did it twice.
Yikes.
This is not an obscure piece of NBA trivia that Smith could be easily forgiven for not knowing. Perhaps he was too busy playing solitaire on his phone and just missed two of the past three NBA postseasons. That’s a tough look for the guy who fancies himself as the No. 1 NBA analyst in the country.
And it’s a terrible look for ESPN, as they keep selling Smith as one of the faces of their NBA coverage.
Stephen A. Smith made a brutal gaffe while talking Warriors playoff history
If Smith made this kind of mistake while talking about the NFL, nobody would be shocked. At this point, sports fans practically expect him to butcher football analysis. It’s almost endearing that a guy with the ego of Smith can be so consistently wrong while also delivering every “fact” with the utmost confidence. It’s part of the Stephen A. experience.
But this one hits differently because the NBA is where he’s supposed to at least know the basics. This is where Smith prides himself as being an authority figure.
Stephen A. Smith incorrectly stated the Golden State Warriors haven’t made the playoffs since their 2022 championship, despite the team reaching the postseason twice since then. (Candice Ward/Imagn Images)
And yet he couldn’t keep the recent playoff history of the Warriors straight. The team whose head coach is in the news every other week. The team that has won four championships since 2014. Arguably one of the most important franchises in the NBA over the past 15 years.
Yes, Golden State missed the playoffs in 2024 after getting bounced in the Play-In Tournament (although they won 46 games that season). And yes, it fell short again this season. But that’s a lot different from acting like Steve Kerr has spent four years wandering the basketball wilderness since winning that 2022 title.
He hasn’t. In fact, the team is 175-153 in the past four regular seasons.
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The Warriors made the second round in 2023. They made the second round again in 2025.
Before burying Steve Kerr on national television, maybe Stephen A. Smith could take 10 seconds to confirm whether the Warriors were actually, you know, in the playoffs.
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