Connect with us

Sports

What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

Published

on

What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”

The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.

“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.

There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.

The Pulse Newsletter
Advertisement

Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.

Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.

Sign UpBuy The Pulse Newsletter

Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.


Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)

That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:

2024 (so far)

In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.

The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).

Advertisement

When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 10-1
  • +5 to +9: 13-0
  • +1 to +4: 9-1
  • Even: 1-2
  • -1 to -4: 3-4
  • -5 to -9: 0-3
  • -10 or worse: 0-1

On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.

SEC explosive plays per game

Team Explosives Opponent explosives Differential

16.00

2.67

13.33

Advertisement

18.00

6.00

12.00

17.00

5.33

Advertisement

11.67

10.33

2.67

7.67

11.67

Advertisement

4.33

7.33

10.67

4.00

6.67

Advertisement

7.67

3.00

4.67

11.00

7.00

Advertisement

4.00

8.00

5.33

2.67

8.00

Advertisement

6.67

1.33

6.00

5.67

0.33

Advertisement

7.67

7.33

0.33

5.00

5.00

Advertisement

0.00

9.00

9.67

-0.67

8.33

Advertisement

9.33

-1.00

7.67

9.00

-1.33

Advertisement

Source: TruMedia

Recent season history

Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
  • +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
  • +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
  • Even: 42-38 (.525)
  • -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
  • -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
  • -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)

(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)

On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.

Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.

The reason for the data

Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.

Advertisement

But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.

Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.

On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.

It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.

(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)

Advertisement

Sports

10-year-old chess prodigy defeats grandmaster in ‘near-perfect game’

Published

on

10-year-old chess prodigy defeats grandmaster in ‘near-perfect game’

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Bodhana Sivanandan, a 10-year-old chess prodigy from London, made headlines over the summer after she became the youngest female chess player to defeat a grandmaster. This week, Sivanandan reached another important milestone in her young career.

The young talent, known as the “girl wonder,” defeated former women’s world champion and grandmaster Mariya Muzychuk in the first round of the European Chess Club Cup, hosted in Greece on Sunday.

Bodhana Sivanandan, 9, competes in the second round of the Delancey UK Chess Challenge Terafinal in Woodstock, Great Britain, Oct. 12, 2024.       (REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett)

Experts called the stunning victory a “near-perfect game,” The Times reported.

Advertisement

Grandmaster David Howell took to social media to commend Sivanandan for her “incredible win.”

“It’s not every day a 10-year-old defeats a [grandmaster] (and former world champion) in such style,” his post on X read.

Sivanandan seemed quite pleased with her win, but told The Times she’s looking for more victories.

Bodhana Sivanandan competes in the British Chess Championships

Bodhana Sivanandan, a 10-year-old chess prodigy, competes in the British Chess Championships at St. George’s Hall on Aug. 7, 2025, in Liverpool, England.  (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

CHESS PRODIGY, 10, MAKES HISTORY AFTER DEFEATING 60-YEAR-OLD GRANDMASTER

Advertisement

“I’m happy to win, but hopefully I do even better in the future games … This will inspire me to keep doing better and trying harder to win more games,” she said.

Sivanandan made history this summer when she defeated Grandmaster Peter Wells, 60, in the final round of the 2025 British Chess Championships in August. According to the International Chess Federation, Sivanandan set the record previously held by American Carissa Yip, who set the record in 2019 at 10 years, 11 months and 20 days old.

Bodhana Sivanandan competes in the British Chess Championships

Bodhana Sivanandan, center, a 10-year-old chess prodigy, competes in the British Chess Championships at St. George’s Hall on Aug. 7, 2025, in Liverpool, England.  (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Sivanandan was 10 years, five months, and three days old when she defeated Wells.

She has made a name for herself since first picking up the game during the COVID-19 pandemic, when she was just 5 years old.

Advertisement

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

Continue Reading

Sports

Coach-of-the-year candidates in high school football keep expanding

Published

on

Coach-of-the-year candidates in high school football keep expanding

With two weeks left in the regular season for high school football, it’s become clear there’s a large and growing list of candidates for coach of the year. They are considered based on exceeding expectations, winning championships or helping to engineer a program turnaround when no one saw it coming.

Let’s review the great coaching performances so far this season:

Los Alamitos football coach Ray Fenton stands with his players on Thursday during an Alpha League opener at SoFi Stadium.

(Craig Weston)

Advertisement
  • Ray Fenton, Los Alamitos: The man looks so fit he could run around any stadium without breaking a sweat. Few expected the Griffins to be 8-0 at this point, let alone be in the running for a Southern Section Division 1 playoff berth. He’s molded a team of best friends into believing in themselves no matter the opponent. San Clemente and Mission Viejo are the only teams standing in the way of a 10-0 regular season.
  • Terrance Whitehead, Crenshaw: When head coach Robert Garrett was placed on administrative leave before the season began, the Crenshaw grad and longtime assistant took over. Garrett helped train him, and Crenshaw is 7-1 going into a Coliseum League title decider against King/Drew on Friday. The Cougars have discipline, resiliency and are playing to make Garrett and his assistants proud.

    Crenshaw interim coach Terrance Whitehead speaking with quarterback Danniel Flowers.

    Crenshaw interim coach Terrance Whitehead speaking with quarterback Danniel Flowers.

    (Robert H. Helfman)

  • Brad Vonnahme, Crespi: Who predicted the Celts would be 8-0 and headed to the Del Rey League championship in Vonnahme’s third season of a massive rebuilding job? He hasn’t brought in transfers, rather relying on players who start out as freshmen learning the game and move up. There’s a group of sophomores being developed who could be very good in the coming seasons.
  • Jason Negro, St. John Bosco: The Braves have established themselves as the No. 1 team in California, if not the nation, while relying on an improving sophomore quarterback and four receivers headed to college success. He knows championships are won with the help of the offensive and defensive lines, and those are the areas to watch as the playoffs approach.

    St. John Bosco coach Jason Negro has his team ranked No. 1 in the nation.

    St. John Bosco coach Jason Negro has his team ranked No. 1 in the nation.

    (Craig Weston)

  • Jon Ellinghouse, Sierra Canyon: The Trailblazers are 8-0 and no one has come close to beating them. The season will be based on whether they can break through and disrupt the St. John Bosco-Mater Dei domination. Their defense is clearly the best in Southern California.
  • Dylen Smith, Palisades: He lost his field, lost his weight room and nearly lost his team to the Palisades fire. And yet, the Dolphins have persevered and are 8-0 with players who stayed and a couple new ones who wanted to experience an adventure with no guarantee of success.
  • Chad Johnson, Mission Viejo: With the Diablos (7-1) having wins over Santa Margarita, Folsom and San Diego Lincoln, Johnson challenged his team with a difficult nonleague schedule and they’ve met that challenge. He placed his trust in quarterback Luke Fahey, and don’t doubt how far this team can advance.
  • Rick Clausen, Westlake: An assistant coach all his life, Clausen decided to accept the head coaching position even though his wife died of cancer. He’s somehow managed to balance parenting duties and coaching duties, helping a Westlake team go from 0-10 last season to 8-0 this season in his rookie year.
  • Tony Henney, Dana Hills: Wherever Henney goes, he succeeds. He’s been head coach at Nordhoff, Trabuco Hills, St. Bonaventure and Westlake. He has Dana Hills at 8-0 going into a game on Friday against 8-0 Laguna Beach, whose own coach, John Shanahan, surrounded himself with an elite group of assistants, including former JSerra head coach Scott McKnight. The winner of the battle of the unbeatens might not be stopped the rest of the way.
  • Kevin Hettig, Corona del Mar: With his team 8-0 and tough games ahead, Hettig has quietly and competently prepared the Sea Kings to stay focused and keep improving each week.

    Corona del Mar head coach Kevin Hettig, quarterback Brady Annett, and NMUSD superintendent Dr. Wesley Smith.

    Corona del Mar head coach Kevin Hettig, quarterback Brady Annett, and NMUSD superintendent Dr. Wesley Smith.

    (Don Leach/Staff Photographer)

    Advertisement
  • Jason Miller, Leuzinger: Who loses his only quarterback who can pass and still keeps the team winning? Miller and the Olympians (6-1) are on the verge of ending Inglewood’s reign as a league champion by using 5-foot-8 Journee Tonga as his versatile offensive weapon and replacement quarterback.
  • Mike Moon, Oxnard Pacifica: Moon is trying to get his always underrated 8-0 team to run the table in the Marmonte League. He’s helped develop junior quarterback Taylor Lee while managing rising expectations and winning close games.

    Mike Moon of Oxnard Pacifica has his team at 8-0.

    Mike Moon of Oxnard Pacifica has his team at 8-0.

    (Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

  • Raymond Carter, Torrance: The former All-City running back at Crenshaw has his team at 8-0, beating local team after local team led by junior quarterback Gibson Turner, who has 20 touchdown passes.
  • Mark Carson, Rio Hondo Prep: Year after year, Carson has Rio Hondo Prep ready to succeed. This year’s 8-0 start is no different. A challenge ahead will be playing in a tougher playoff division.
  • Darryl Goree, Palm Springs: An 8-0 start has the Indians being the talk of town. Senior linebacker Koa Rapolla has been turned loose and is averaging 13 tackles a game.
  • Rick Curtis, Crean Lutheran: Curtis figured out how to best use one of the best athletes in the Southland, quarterback/point guard Caden Jones, and it has led to an 8-0 record.
Continue Reading

Sports

Drew Brees backs Alvin Kamara’s retirement threat over potential Saints trade: ‘That should be celebrated’

Published

on

Drew Brees backs Alvin Kamara’s retirement threat over potential Saints trade: ‘That should be celebrated’

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

With the NFL trade deadline getting closer by the day, all eyes are on teams like the New Orleans Saints to see if they’re willing to sell off their stars to acquire draft picks for a potential rebuild. 

One of those stars is running back Alvin Kamara, but he made it clear what he would do if general manager Mickey Loomis were to trade him. Kamara said he and Loomis are on the same page, but in the unlikely event it does happen, he threatened to retire.

“If I was a GM, I guess I would go to the player and be like, ‘Hey, we’re trading you. Just to let you know.’ If Mickey comes down and says that, then I’ll go drink a piña colada somewhere,” Kamara told reporters recently.

Advertisement

Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints react during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears in the NFC Wild Card Playoff game at Mercedes Benz Superdome on Jan. 10, 2021, in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

As someone who knows Kamara quite well, Saints legend Drew Brees loved hearing that answer from his old running back. 

“Look, all of this is unfortunate and wouldn’t even be a topic if the Saints weren’t 1-6,” Brees told Fox News Digital, while discussing his flag football organization, Football ‘N’ America, partnering with Unrivaled Sports. “Immediately, when people think the season is ‘lost,’ or a high unlikelihood, all of a sudden you start dealing these pieces to get draft picks to build for the future. That term rebuilding, right? 

ALVIN KAMARA THREATENS RETIREMENT IF SAINTS TRY TO TRADE HIM: ‘I’LL DRINK A PIÑA COLADA SOMEWHERE’

“I know Alvin obviously, but for those who don’t know Alvin, I think you should read into his comments as he loves being a part of the New Orleans Saints, and he loves the city of New Orleans and loves the people. He doesn’t want to go anywhere. So, when the topic is broached with him, ‘Hey, what would you think about…’ He doesn’t want to go anywhere else. ‘This is my team, I want to play here in front of these fans.’ I just think that’s a testament to his loyalty and that’s kind of rare nowadays, to be honest with you. That should be celebrated more than anything.”

Advertisement

Kamara isn’t the only attractive Saints star in the building. Wide receiver Chris Olave is another name swirling in trade speculation, while players like defensive end Cam Jordan and linebacker Demario Davis could be viewed as trade candidates as well. 

Drew Brees hands ball to Alvin Kamara

Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints hands the ball off to Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field on Oct. 4, 2020, in Detroit, Michigan. (Rey Del Rio/Getty Images)

But Brees doesn’t like the thought of selling just because of what the record says. Having leaders like those in the locker room goes a long way. 

“I think the reaction for everybody, especially when you’re not winning, that something must be really wrong and who do we blame it on?” Brees explained. “Everybody seems to want dysfunction – makes for a better story. I would almost argue there’s a heck of a lot more dysfunction I know on some winning teams right now than there is on teams like the Saints, who are 1-6. 

“I think everybody loves the coach. I think the coach has really endeared himself to a lot of the team. They love playing for him despite the record, and I think we got guys who care about the organization, the city, the community. They love being a part of the team, they love being leaders on the team. They take real pride in it.”

Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees look on field

Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints look on against the Los Angeles Rams during the fourth quarter in the NFC Championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Jan. 20, 2019, in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Advertisement

Brees feels his former team is “close,” but they may still need to find their identity. The coach he mentions is new head coach Kellen Moore, who is a first-year head coach that New Orleans really likes. 

No one expected the Saints to turn around quickly this season, but Brees and others feel the pieces are in place, especially those like Kamara who want to remain in place to get the Saints back to their playoff ways. 

Follow Fox News Digital’s sports coverage on X, and subscribe to the Fox News Sports Huddle newsletter.

Continue Reading

Trending