Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin
In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
| Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)
Sports
Utah’s winningest coach to step down after 21 seasons: ‘Honor and a privilege’
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The Utah Utes will be ending an era when they play against Nebraska in the Las Vegas Bowl Dec. 31.
It will be head coach Kyle Whittingham’s last game as head coach after the 66-year-old announced Friday he is stepping down. Whittingham is the winningest coach in program history, going 117-88 over 22 seasons.
“The time is right to step down from my position as the head football coach at the University of Utah,” Whittingham said in a statement Friday.
Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham on the sideline during the first half against the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, Nov. 15, 2025. (Chris Jones/Imagn Images)
“It’s been an honor and a privilege to lead the program for the past 21 years, and I’m very grateful for the relationships forged with all the players and assistant coaches that have worked so hard and proudly worn the drum and feather during our time here.”
Whittingham co-coached the Fiesta Bowl with Utah in 2004 and then took over as the permanent head coach the following season. Whittingham led Utah to a winning record in 18 of his 21 seasons.
This season, Utah is 10-2 and at one point ranked No. 13 in the AP poll, just missing out on the College Football Playoff (CFB).
BILL BELICHICK BREAKS UP WITH MEMBERS OF UNC COACHING STAFF AFTER TUMULTUOUS SEASON
Utah Utes head coach Kyle Whittingham reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kan., Nov. 28, 2025. (Jay Biggerstaff/Imagn Images)
Whittingham was named the Western Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year in 1981 in his senior year.
Before becoming a coach, Whittingham played in the USFL and the CFL from 1982 to 1984. He began his coaching career as a graduate assistant at BYU.
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Whittingham joined the Utah staff in 1994 and rose through the ranks. He began as the defensive line coach and eventually became the defensive coordinator before becoming the team’s head coach.
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His final game on the sideline will be the team’s bowl game against Nebraska. Whittingham, who is 11-6 in bowl games as a head coach, will look to end his tenure with a win on Dec. 31.
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Sports
Lakers look to sharpen defensive focus for Suns; could Jarred Vanderbilt be the answer?
The film tells the truth. The Lakers are not a good defensive team, evidenced by the sight of the NBA’s top guards blowing past Lakers defenders into the paint during a 10-game defensive swoon that ranks among the league’s worst.
Yet when coach JJ Redick shows his team the tape and then backs it up with the numbers, there’s still cautious optimism that the Lakers can improve.
“I don’t think there’s anybody in that meeting room that thinks we’re a good defensive team right now,” Redick said, “but I also don’t think there’s anybody in that meeting room who thinks we can’t be a good defensive team. We’ve got to get better.”
In the 10 games since LeBron James returned to the lineup, the Lakers have scored 121.1 points per 100 possessions, a significant increase in their offensive rating of 115.4 during the first 14 games of the season. While their offensive rating ranks fifth in the league during the last 10 games, their 120.9 defensive rating ranks 28th. It’s a dramatic increase from their previous 113.7-point defensive rating.
The most glaring issues are the team’s defense in transition and early in the opponent’s offense, Redick said. The Lakers give up 1.19 points per possession in transition, fifth-worst in the league.
Sunday’s game in Phoenix against the Suns, who scored 28 fast-break points against the Lakers on Dec. 1, will be a significant test as the Lakers (17-7) try to avoid their first losing streak this season.
Led by Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and the 40-year-old James, the Lakers are not destined to be a fast team on either side of the court. They were outmatched against San Antonio’s dynamic backcourt led by the speedy De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, who combined for 50 points Wednesday as the Spurs scored 27 fast-break points and knocked the Lakers out of NBA Cup contention.
Losses like that exposed the Lakers’ lack of speed on the perimeter, but the team also has shown flashes of excellence against the best guards. The Lakers held 76ers star Tyrese Maxey to five points on two-for-six shooting in the fourth quarter of the Lakers’ four-point win at Philadelphia on Dec. 7.
“It’s less of scheme stuff. A little more of urgency,” guard Gabe Vincent said. “A little more of doing all the little things. If you don’t do them, like I said, there are some great players in this league that will expose you.”
One of the team’s top defensive options is on the bench. Forward Jarred Vanderbilt has played only three minutes in the last 10 games. He entered the game against Philadelphia only after Jake LaRavia took a shot to the face that loosened a tooth.
Vanderbilt, an athletic forward, has been a consistent force on defense during his career but struggles to contribute on offense. While he impressed coaches with how hard he worked in the offseason to improve his shooting and ballhandling, Vanderbilt made only four of 14 three-point shots in the first 14 games. He averaged 5.8 rebounds per game before James returned to the lineup Nov. 18, pushing Vanderbilt to the bench.
Before the Lakers’ last game against the Suns, Redick said part of it was a numbers game with James’ return and felt the team would settle on a nine-man rotation. Vanderbilt had tasks he “needed to be able to do consistently to play” even before James returned, Redick said.
Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox, scoring against Lakers guard Luka Doncic, and teammates continually drove past their defenders during an NBA Cup game Wednesday at Crypto.com Arena.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
But making changes at that time was difficult, the coach acknowledged. The Lakers were in the midst of a seven-game winning streak. But they’re 2-3 in the last five games, which have laid their defensive struggles bare, and coaches are “looking at everything.”
“If this continues,” Redick said Friday, “he’ll definitely get his opportunities.”
After practice Friday, Vanderbilt stayed on the court shooting extra three-pointers with staff members.
Etc.
The Lakers assigned guard Bronny James to the G League on Friday.
Sports
Philip Rivers’ former teammate expresses one concern he has with 44-year-old’s return to Colts
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There is a good chance Philip Rivers sees some action on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts take on the Seattle Seahawks in a must-win game for the AFC South team.
Rivers, 44, joined the Colts earlier this week as the team deals with a quarterback crisis. The potential Hall of Famer hasn’t played since the 2020 season, but when the Colts needed him the most, he answered the call and dove into a playbook to get game ready.
But what can any NFL fan think Rivers is going to provide for the Colts at 44? He’s changed so much since the 2020 season, as his opponents on the field. The Seahawks also have one of the best defenses in the league.
Shawne Merriman #56 of the San Diego Chargers walks on the sideline in the game against the Seattle Seahawks on Aug. 15, 2009 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, California. (Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)
Shawne Merriman, Rivers’ former teammate, told Fox News Digital that he expected him to play well but was concerned about one thing.
“It’s a tough week for him to get back. But I’ll tell you this, Phil’s upside was never his athleticism. It was always his competitiveness,” he said. “He’s the most competitive player I’ve ever played with, that’s one. And two, it was his preparation and his mental and his knowledge of the game of football. Those two things would always got Philip to be that elite quarterback. It was that. So, it’s not gonna be that much different as far as him moving around the pocket.
“The concern I do have is you can’t replicate football without playing it. So, you can have a coach out there, I’m sure he was throwing the football around with his high school kids. I’m sure that he was working out, but you can’t replicate football. So, I think he’s gonna go out there and look good. I think he’s gonna go out there and actually look like he did five years ago.”
When the rumors started that Rivers was potentially going to come to Indianapolis for a workout, Merriman said he wasn’t surprised.
Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks for an open receiver during the third quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 29, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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The former San Diego Chargers star said when he spoke to Rivers during Antonio Gates’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony, it didn’t feel like the quarterback was completely finished with the game.
“I wasn’t shocked. And, this is why – a couple of years ago, I put on Twitter that Phil was still ready to play and this was I think in 2023,” he said. “And everybody’s like, ‘What? Well, yeah, right.’ He’s been gone out of the game I think three years at that point and then literally a week later or two, it pops up that the San Francisco 49ers, their quarterback situation with all their injuries, that they were thinking about bringing in Philip. And I said, I told you.
“I had a conversation with Philip and he didn’t say, ‘Oh, I’m coming back to play,’ but when you talked to him, it sounded like he was ready. It sounded like he was talking about the game in the present moment.”
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Merriman said he got together with Rivers and Drew Brees during Antonio Gates’ Hall of Fame induction ceremony and it didn’t like Rivers was exactly finished with football.
“So, I’m not surprised at all and it’s the right decision by the Indianapolis Colts.”
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