Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin
In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
---|---|---|---|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)
Sports
'Sopranos' star says she wanted to 'go after' 76ers' Joel Embiid for elbowing Knicks guard during playoff game
Don’t mess with Carmela Soprano.
Edie Falco, the actress who played the wife of Tony Soprano on the acclaimed HBO series “The Sopranos,” revealed in an interview with New York Knicks stars Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart that she was really upset with Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid during the playoffs.
Falco said she was about to go after Embiid after the big man elbowed Brunson in the first round of the playoffs last season.
“Joel Embiid, he’s mean,” Falco said in the latest episode of the “Roommates Show.” “He like elbowed you in a game last year and I was going to go after him. I mean that’s how bad it was. And then I think I’ve seen you guys play since then and you guys are all like cool with each other. I’m like, ‘You don’t hold a grudge?’”
KNICKS’ MIKAL BRIDGES OUTDUELS SPURS’ VICTOR WEMBANYAMA; KNICKS HOLD ON FOR NARROW VICTORY
Brunson said he’s known Embiid since they came into the league and made clear that it wasn’t cool of him to throw the elbow, but whatever ill will there was between them at the time of the heated moment was gone.
The Knicks got the last laugh anyway, as they defeated the 76ers in the first round and eventually lost to the Indiana Pacers in the playoffs.
Falco is long removed from her “Sopranos” days. She’s set for a “Nurse Jackie” sequel on Amazon Prime Video.
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Sports
Joan Benoit Samuelson's 1984 Olympic marathon win was a game-changer for women's sports
As Joan Benoit Samuelson negotiated the hairpin turn into the Coliseum tunnel, ran past the USC locker room and onto the stadium’s red synthetic track for the final 400 meters of the 1984 Olympic marathon, her focus wasn’t only on finishing, but on finishing strong.
Women never had been allowed to run farther than 1,500 meters in the Olympics because the Games’ all-male guardians long harbored antiquated views of femininity and what the female body could do. If Samuelson struggled to the line, or worse yet dropped to the ground after crossing it, that would validate those views and set back for years the fight for gender equality in the Olympics.
“They might have taken the Olympic marathon off the schedule,” Samuelson said by phone two days before Thanksgiving. “This is an elite athlete struggling to finish a marathon. It never happened, thank goodness. But that could have changed the course of history for women’s marathoning.”
Actually, that race did change the course of history because nothing remained the same after a joyous Samuelson, wearing a wide smile and waving her white cap to the sold-out crowd, crossed the finish line. This year marked the 40th anniversary of that victory, and when the Olympics return to Los Angeles in four years, the Games will be different in many ways because of it.
Since 1984, the number of Summer Olympic events for women has nearly tripled, to 151, while last summer’s Paris Games was the first to reach gender parity, with women accounting for half of the 10,500 athletes in France. Fittingly the women’s marathon was given a place of honor on the calendar there, run as the final event of the track and field competition and one of the last medal events of the Games.
None of that seemed likely — or even possible — before Samuelson’s win.
“I sort of use marathoning as a way to storytell,” Samuelson said from her home in Maine. “And I tell people LA 84 and the first women’s Olympic marathon was certainly the biggest win of my life.”
It was life-changing for many other women as well.
Until 1960, the longest Olympic track race for women was 200 meters. The 1,500 meters was added in 1972, yet it wasn’t until the L.A. Games that the leaders of the International Olympic Committee, who had long cited rampant myths and dubious sports-medicine studies about the dangers of exercise for women, approved the addition of two distance races, the 3,000 meters and marathon.
Which isn’t to say women had never run long distances in the Olympics. At the first modern Games in Athens in 1896, a Greek woman named Stamata Revithi, denied a place on the starting line on race day, ran the course alone a day later, finishing in 5 hours and 30 minutes, an accomplishment witnesses confirmed in writing.
Her performance was better than at least seven of the 17 male runners, who didn’t complete the race. But she was barred from entering Panathenaic Stadium and her achievement was never recognized.
Eighty-eight years passed before a woman was allowed to run the Olympic marathon.
“There are men that are raised with resentment for women, except for their own mothers. That’s just a part of their nature,” Hall of Fame track coach Bob Larsen said. “A lot of good things have happened in the last couple of decades. Old men are passing away and opening doors [for] people who have a more modern understanding of what women are capable of.”
In between Revithi and Samuelson, women routinely were banned even from public races like the Boston Marathon, which didn’t allow females to run officially until 1972. Even then, women had to bring a doctor’s note declaring them fit to run, said Maggie Mertens, author of “Better, Faster, Farther: How Running Changed Everything We Know About Women.”
Seven years later Norway’s Grete Waitz became the first woman to break 2:30 in the marathon, running 2:27.32 in New York, a time that would have been good for second in the elite men’s race in Chicago that same day.
Because of that, Samuelson said she hardly was blazing a trail in L.A. Instead she was running in the wake of pioneers such as Kathrine Switzer, Bobbi Gibb and Waitz.
“I ran because there was an opportunity, not because I wanted to prove that women could run marathons,” said Samuelson, who still is running at 67. “Women had been proving themselves long before the ’84 Games.
“If anything, maybe my win inspired women to realize that if marathoning were a metaphor for life, anything in life is possible.”
Still, when Samuelson beat Waitz in Los Angeles, running in prime time during a race that was beamed to television viewers around the world, “that was the game-changer,” Switzer, the first woman to run Boston as an official competitor, told Mertens.
“When people saw it on television … they said, ‘Oh my God, women can do anything.’”
A barrier had fallen and there was no going back.
“You could make the argument that in women’s sports in general, we had to see, we had to have these women prove on the biggest stage possible that they were capable so that these gatekeepers would let women come in and play sports and be part of this world,” Mertens said. “I think it really did help burst open those ideas about what we could do and what we could see.”
As a result, the elite runners who have followed in Samuelson’s footsteps never have known a world in which women were barred from long-distance races.
“I grew up believing that women ran the marathon and that it wasn’t a big deal,” said Kara Goucher, a two-time Olympian and a world championship silver medalist who was 6 when Samuelson won in L.A. “I grew up seeing women run the marathon as the norm. That 100% is a credit to Joanie going out there on the world’s biggest stage and normalizing it.”
Paige Wood, a former U.S. marathon champion, said her high school coach was inspired to run marathons by Samuelson’s story and passed that inspiration on to her runners.
“She used her as an example of why we shouldn’t put any mental limitations on ourselves or shouldn’t let others tell us what we are capable of,” Wood said.
Wood was born in 1996 and remembers her mom, who was very athletic, saying that cheerleading was the only sport available to her in high school in the pre-Samuelson days.
“It’s undeniable, right? The courage she gave other women to start running and start competing,” Wood continued. “The trickle-down effect, it’s not even limited to running. It affected all sports and just made women less afraid to be athletic and try all different sports.”
A year after Samuelson’s victory, the U.S. women’s soccer team played its first game, although it was more than a decade before the WNBA, the country’s first professional women’s league. There are now leagues in six other sports, from ice hockey and lacrosse to rugby and volleyball, and female athletes like Caitlin Clark, Alex Morgan, Simone Biles and Katie Ledecky are household names.
Last summer in Paris, Sifan Hassan won the women’s marathon in an Olympic-record 2:22.55 after taking bronze in both the 5,000 and 10,000 meters, events that weren’t even on the Olympic calendar when Samuelson won her race. Two months later Kenyan Ruth Chepng’etich became the first woman to run under 2:10 when she won the Chicago Marathon in 2:09:56, averaging 4:57 a mile.
Until 1970, two years before the Boston Marathon was opened to women, only one man had broken 2:10 in the race.
“It says so much about sport and the way that humans don’t quite know what we’re capable of until we do it,” Mertens said. “We’re going to keep pushing those goalposts back. We’ve come so far, and I think that’s more to do with just having the opportunities and know that there aren’t really limits.
“That’s the power of sports. These people are inspiring us; [they] help us see women as powerful athletes but also powerful in politics, as leaders.”
Did Samuelson make that happen? Or did she simply make it happen faster?
“You’d have to decide whether it was a huge defining moment or just a general wave of athletic events that made this possible,” Larsen said. “You know, the more times you put someone up at the plate, sooner or later somebody’s going to hit it out.
“Now it’s acceptable to have a woman running for president. So things are happening and it’s more acceptable to the general public. Was Joanie a big part of it? I would think so.”
Sports
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers: Without leaks ‘it will be a little easier to win’
Less than a week after The Athletic published a story detailing dysfunction within the New York Jets organization, quarterback Aaron Rodgers used his latest appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” to address leaks to journalists.
“There’s definitely some leaks,” Rodgers said during his Monday appearance. “There’s people that have relationships with people in the media. There’s motivations for writing stories it seems like and nothing is surprising at this point. There’s some interesting things that go on in every organization — some that would like to be left uncovered but it seems like here those don’t always get left uncovered. They get covered.”
Rodgers also mused on the show about the possibility of getting released after the season, and joked at the recent reporting of owner Woody Johnson receiving team input from his teenage sons.
“Being released would be a first; being released by a teenager, that would also be a first,” Rodgers said with a laugh during his weekly spot on the show.
Those comments came as part of a discussion of The Athletic’s story about Johnson’s perceived mismanagement of the franchise. Among the details contained in that piece: “Madden” video game ratings led Johnson to nix a trade for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, and the owners’ teenage sons have been increasingly influential when it comes to Johnson’s decisions.
Later during the “McAfee” appearance, Rodgers added: “It can’t be the norm that there’s so many leaks and so many people continue to have conversations whether its getting some sort of angle of revenge or even with people who are still in the building. The standard needs to be you are not creating questions for other people all the time. Leaking these things doesn’t become the standard.
“Obviously, what’s best for the Jets is not having these types of leaks all the time. When that gets figured out, it will be a little easier to win. That doesn’t have a direct impact on the players on the field but it does have an impact on the culture and the chemistry and the overall energy of the building. That’s what needs to get better.”
On Sunday, the Jets fell to 4-11 following a home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP, has played in every game this season after an Achilles injury limited him to just the first four snaps in 2023. He has thrown for 3,511 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. Last month, The Athletic reported that Johnson suggested benching Rodgers in September. With two games remaining in this season, the 41-year-old’s future with the team remains in question.
In October, Johnson fired head coach Robert Saleh, the same day offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett was demoted as the team’s play caller. One week later, wide receiver Davante Adams — a close friend of Rodgers’ — was acquired via trade. In November, general manager Joe Douglas was dismissed. The team has already started its search to fill the open GM spot.
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(Photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
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