Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin
In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
| Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)
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Transgender golfer Hailey Davidson has sued the LPGA and USGA for its policies that prohibit biological males who underwent male puberty from competing in women’s competition.
The LPGA said in a statement it was aware of the lawsuit and would “let that process play out on the proper forum.”
“The LPGA’s gender policy was developed through a thoughtful, expert-informed process and is grounded in protecting the competitive integrity of elite women’s golf,” the statement said.
The USGA and LPGA changed gender policies for events in 2025 and beyond, declaring that players must be assigned female at birth or have transitioned to female before going through male puberty to be eligible to compete.
The 33-year-old Davidson didn’t transition until after puberty. Davidson competed in a U.S. Open qualifier and LPGA Qualifying School under a different policy in 2024, falling short in both efforts.
Davidson claimed in the lawsuit that the new policy effectively bans transgender women from competing in USGA women’s events or the LPGA because many states prevent children from taking hormones or blocking puberty.
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When the USGA denied Davidson entry into the qualifier, Davidson claimed the Hackensack Golf Club violated the law by saying the USGA controlled all decisions regarding eligibility. Davidson began hormone treatments in Davidson’s early 20s in 2015 and in 2021 underwent gender-affirming surgery, which was required under the LPGA’s previous gender policy.
Davidson also filed a lawsuit against the women’s golf tour NXXT in December after it changed its policies to prevent biological males from competing against females.
NXXT and its attorneys from America First Legal filed its motion to dismiss in February, and believe the suit will be thrown out.
“We are asking the courts to dismiss the claims, and we’re addressing the matter,” NXXT Golf CEO Stuart McKinnon told Fox News Digital.
“This was about simply protecting women’s sports. So the goal was really clarity and competitive integrity, and, as a professional tour, we believe it was our responsibility to define those categories.”
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NXXT was one of the first women’s tours that stepped up to make a policy change. The LPGA then changed its own policy to bring about more restrictions to protect the women’s category in December 2024.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Harvard-Westlake doesn’t drop too many series in baseball these days, but if there’s one coach who gives the Wolverines fits, it’s Randy Thompson of Bishop Alemany. The reminder happened years ago when Harvard-Westlake had three future first-round draft picks on the same team in Max Fried, Lucas Giolito and Jack Flaherty, and Alemany defeated that powerful Wolverines team with Giolito on the mound.
On Friday, Alemany (8-3, 4-1 Mission League) completed a week in which it took two of three games from the Wolverines with a 10-4 victory. Apparently success against Harvard-Westlake isn’t just limited to the head coach. Thompson’s son, Brody, hit two home runs and a double and finished with three RBIs. Also hitting two home runs was Chase Stevenson, who had three hits and two RBIs.
Alemany had 16 hits on the day.
Sherman Oaks Notre Dame 5, Chaminade 4: The Knights (10-0) stayed unbeaten, with Dru Wilson’s RBI single in the sixth breaking a 4-4 tie. Malakye Matsumoto had three hits and three RBIs, including a home run. Lachlan Clark threw four innings of scoreless relief with seven strikeouts and no walks. Andrew Chute had a home run and three RBIs for Chaminade.
Loyola 5, St. Francis 4: Freshman Anthony Adame closed out the win with two innings of stellar relief and three strikeouts in the eight-inning contest. Austin Junk drove in the winning run with a double.
Sierra Canyon 19, Crespi 2: Charlie Cummings had two doubles, a single and three RBIs for Sierra Canyon.
Royal 6, Simi Valley 2: Dustin Dunwoody struck out 16 in six innings for Royal.
Hart 15, Valencia 14: The Hawks survived a four-run rally by Valencia in the seventh to win a wild Foothill League game. Justin Gaisford had a home run and five RBIs for Valencia. Hart received four hits and three RBIs for Matix Frithsmith. Josh Whitson had three hits and four RBIs and Hayden Rhodes hit a three-run home run. The two teams combined for 49 runs and 11 errors in two games. Another game ended in a 10-10 tie.
El Camino Real 6, Chatsworth 3: RJ De La Rosa and Jackson Sellz each had two RBIs to help El Camino Real stay unbeaten in the West Valley League.
Birmingham 8, Granada Hills 2: Carlos Acuna struck out five in six innings, Aidan Martinez struck out three in one inning of relief and Julius Monroe-Truitt had three RBIs for Birmingham.
Cleveland 3, Taft 2: Ezra Preis had two hits and two RBIs for the Cavaliers.
Bell 17, Huntington Park 1: Daniel Garcia had two triples and three RBIs for 12-1 Bell.
Carson 6, Banning 4: The Colts took control of the Marine League race this week. Skylar Vinson had two hits.
St. John Bosco 13, JSerra 0: For the fifth time in seven games, St. John Bosco (7-0), ranked No. 1 by The Times, recorded a shutout. Jack Champlin started and gave up one hit in five innings. Jhett Ohira had three hits and three RBIs. Ohira was seven for 12 in the Braves’ three-game sweep of JSerra.
Corona del Mar 8, Newport Harbor 1: Stevie Jones gave up one run in 6⅔ innings and Ryan Williams and Grant Horsley each had two hits.
La Canada 6, San Marino 0: Joe Bell threw a five-hit shutout and had two hits and three RBIs.
El Dorado 4, Villa Park 2: Brady Abner had the tying triple and Xavi Cadena hit the winning home run.
Corona 19, King 7: Anthony Murphy had a home run, a double and two singles. He also struck out three batters in his one inning of relief. Trey Ebel added two hits and three RBIs.
Norco 7, Corona Centennial 4: Dylan Seward and Jordan Ayala hit home runs for Norco.
Corona Santiago 9, Eastvale Roosevelt 1: Striker Pence hit a two-run home run and Joshua Angulo had two hits and three RBIs for Santiago. Ayden White threw three innings of hitless relief.
Redondo Union 6, Mira Costa 2: Robby Zimmerman struck out eight in 5⅔ innings.
Cypress 7, Mater Dei 5: Austin Gerken hit a three-run home run for Mater Dei, but Drew Slevcove got the save for Cypress.
Los Alamitos 6, Edison 5: A two-run double by Willie Adams keyed the comeback win.
Bishop Amat 7, St. Paul 0: Ashton Chavez, Kevin Martin and Izaac Muniz combined on the shutout. Omar Arretche had three hits for Bishop Amat.
Softball
Norco 14, Corona Centennial 0: Leighton Gray hit two home runs for Norco.
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Football fans are airing their frustrations about the continuing rise in the costs of watching the NFL.
As the league has continued to strike new media deals with different streaming services, fans are left scrambling to figure out not only which channel or streaming service the game is on, but also whether they subscribe to that service. OutKick’s Davey Hudson took to the streets of Nashville and New York City to talk to aggrieved football fans.
“I think it’s frustrating when you just want to watch a game, and you have to figure out what app it’s on. And then you’re paying for multiple apps all the time,” one fan said.
New England Patriots fans look upset as the Patriots lose in the second half of an NFL game against the Chicago Bears at Gillette Stadium in Boston, Massachusetts, on Oct. 24, 2022. (Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images)
Another fan was blunt, calling the current system of watching games “f—ing stupid.”
“Well, it’s f—king stupid, you have to get five different platforms to watch all of the games that you want to, and still you have to pay on top. It’s ridiculous at this point,” the fan said.
One fan called it a “pain in the a–” to keep track of where and when the games are being streamed.
A different fan called it a “money grab,” citing Netflix as the latest streaming service the NFL brought in to start broadcasting its games.
One fan, who said he is a New York Jets season ticket holder and has the NFL package, lamented that he still does not have access to every game.
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NFL fans walk outside the Super Bowl Experience at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, California, on Feb. 6, 2026. (Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
“I can’t tell you how frustrating it is when I feel like I have every service, I have Jets season tickets, I have the NFL package, and then there is still games on top of that that I don’t have access to. It gets very frustrating,” the fan said.
Multiple fans said they pay for at least three, if not four streaming services. Numerous other fans said they pay for five or six different services at this point.
The fan who called the current system “f—king stupid,” said that she thinks that the NFL is taking the long way around to returning to satellite TV.
“Well, I think what’s actually going to happen is we are just taking the long way around going back to like satellite TV, and we are in the last stages of this part of it. It’s all going to conglomerate at one point,” she said.
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Denver Broncos fans cheer during a game against the New England Patriots in the fourth quarter of the Patriots’ 10-7 win in the AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado, on Jan. 25, 2026. (Aaron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post/Getty Images)
NFL fans who want access to every game need to purchase YouTube TV for “NFL Sunday Ticket,” in addition to the costly subscriptions for all the streaming services the NFL broadcasts on. Those streaming services are Amazon Prime, Peacock and Netflix. The combination of those respective services is over $1,500 a year, and that doesn’t include the fees that come with basic cable packages or high-speed Wi-Fi that is needed to accommodate the platforms.
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr said he was concerned that the rising prices of streaming games are maddening for sports fans, and it appears his concerns are valid.
Fox News’ Brian Flood contributed to this report.
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