Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
---|---|---|---|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)

Sports
Buccaneers bring back 464-pound defensive lineman Desmond Watson

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers re-signed defensive tackle Desmond Watson and added him to the practice squad as the team prepares to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4.
Watson, the 464-pound rookie defensive lineman out of Florida, failed to make the 53-man roster in the preseason. He was forced to the sideline as he failed to meet the conditioning requirements to take the field. He was considered to be the heaviest player in NFL history.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive lineman Desmond Watson (56) warms up during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Rookie Mini Camp workout on May 9, 2025 at the AdventHealth Training Center in Tampa, Florida. (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said on Monday that Watson had a “good workout” when the team brought him in last week.
The Buccaneers will look to try to find a way to stop the Eagles’ tush push, which has come under the spotlight in the last few weeks as it appeared some players had been jumping before the ball was snapped to Jalen Hurts.
Bowles said Watson wasn’t just being brought in as the answer to the tush push.
“We’ll never bring him in just to stop a tush push. If we’ve got to bring in a guy to stop one play and the tush push never comes up, you’re wasting your time,” Bowles said. “If we bring him in, we think he can play, not just for a Philadelphia thing.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive tackle Desmond Watson watches from the sideline during practice at NFL football training camp, Wednesday, July 23, 2025, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
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“It’s very unlikely he’d be ready to play, once we bring him in, for Philadelphia right now anyway. It’s just a matter of us making room and seeing if we have a place for him, and then what we see for him in the future.”
The 6-foot-6 defensive tackle was working with a nutritionist during the summer. The team didn’t say what an ideal weight for him would be.
Watson spoke about his weight gain to reporters earlier this year. He said he would consistently stop off to get food while at Florida.
“Stopping while driving,” Watson said when asked about bad habits he’s tried to shed at his pro day. “My biggest thing is keep going, get to where I need to get. There are stores and a lot of temptations. That’s helped me immensely.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers nose tackle Desmond Watson (56) runs a drill during the NFL football team’s rookie minicamp Friday, May 9, 2025, in Tampa, Florida. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
“Don’t go inside the gas station. Pay at the pump. Because inside it’s snacks and all types of things like that. Don’t pull over. If you’re on the highway, stay on the highway until you get where you’ve got to go.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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Sports
Prep talk: Another day, another life saved by high school athletic trainer

For those high schools in California that still don’t have an athletic trainer, what happened last week at San Clemente High was another reason why they are so valuable for the safety reasons. And also proven was the requirement that coaches be certified in CPR every two years.
As a soccer class was ending last Thursday, an assistant coach fell to the ground. Head coach Chris Murray thought he tripped. Then he looked into his eyes, which appeared dilated, and saw that his face was purple. While a football coach nearby was calling 911, Murray began chest compressions.
Athletic trainer Amber Anaya received a text in her office that said, “Emergency.” She got into her golf cart that contained her automated external defibrilator (AED) machine and raced to the field within two minutes. She determined the coach was in cardiac arrest.
While Anaya hooked up her AED machine to the coach, Murray continued chest compressions. The AED machine evaluated the patient and recommended one shock. This went on for some seven minutes until paramedics arrived. Another shock was given after the paramedics took over.
The coach was transported to a hospital and survived. He would receive a pacemaker. It was a happy ending thanks to people who knew what to do in case of an emergency.
Last school year, the Culver City athletic trainer helped save a track athlete who went into cardiac arrest.
Murray said what he did was based on instincts and adrenaline. As soon as the ambulance left, he said he collapsed to his knee exhausted.
“His ribs are sore but not broken,” Murray said, “so I guess I did good.”
All the preparation in case of an emergency was put to good use by the coach trained in CPR and the athletic trainer who knew how to use an AED machine.
This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.
Sports
Police investigating USA Cycling incident as footage of organizers' interaction with activist goes viral

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Police in Livermore, California, are investigating an incident that occurred at a USA Cycling event on Sunday, when organizers were seen berating a women’s sports activist who was inquiring about sex tests.
“At the moment, we are looking into the matter and are in the process of reviewing our report and video footage,” a Livermore Police Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital.
Footage of the interaction at USA Cycling’s Oakland Grand Prix has gone viral in recent days.
Beth Bourne, a California activist known to oppose biological male athletes in women’s and girls’ sports, was seen in the footage asking organizers if the women’s competitors at the event had been sex-tested to prove they were not male. One organizer was then seen approaching Bourne and covering her camera, saying, “We have policies in place. You can stop filming me.”
Bourne was then heard saying, “Give me my phone!”
The footage then showed Bourne walking away from that organizer in a panic before another organizer came up behind her to shout, “Hey! Get the f— out of here!”
Bourne told Fox News Digital that the incident was “emotional.”
“It was so unexpected. I have an idea that we’re going to have people maybe calling us names, or maybe calling us TERFs, which we’ve had, maybe even grabbing our signs. But to have somebody come up from behind me, before I even, I hadn’t even gotten a sign out, I had just asked two or three questions, so that shocked me, I was scared,” Bourne said.
“I was actually terrified, I was terrified that this person might really, really hurt me.”
Additional footage of the incident showed the same organizer who yelled in Bourne’s face later putting a pizza box in front of her face, covering the view of Bourne’s camera, then picking up her protest signs and throwing them in the garbage.
Bourne alleged that the organizer told her, “Your God isn’t going to protect you.”
“‘You’re just a hateful, awful person’” he told Bourne, she alleged. “And then he grabs all my signs and takes them and puts them in the trash can next to the start and finish area. And like that’s insane to me, that someone would grab someone’s property and throw it in the trash can, and it would be the race organizer himself.”
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Fox News Digital has reached out to USA Cycling for comment, but has not received a response.
The same event also drew scrutiny for another viral video of transgender cyclist Chelsea Wolfe telling protesters, “Go suck a sawed-off shotgun,” “You’re a Nazi piece of s—,” and “We kill Nazis.”
Chelsea Wolfe of Team USA competes in the women’s final during the BMX Freestyle World Cup on Dec. 11, 2022, in Gold Coast, Australia. (Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
Wolfe, a former Team USA alternate in women’s BMX who previously said the athlete wanted to win an Olympic medal to “burn the American flag,” took to social media to share multiple posts celebrating Charlie Kirk’s assassination last week.
“We did it!” Wolfe wrote in an Instagram Story sharing a report on the assassination last Wednesday.

Police in Livermore, California are investigating an incident at a USA Cycling event where a ‘protect women’s sports’ protester was berated by organizers. (Getty Images, Courtesy of Beth Bourne)
USA Cycling provided a statement to Fox News Digital addressing Wolfe’s posts.
“The views of current and former national team athletes are their own and do not reflect those of USA Cycling. Chelsea Wolfe has not been a member of the USA Cycling National Team or a member of USA Cycling since 2023,” the statement read.
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