Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin
In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
| Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)
Sports
Anthony Richardson free to seek trade after injury setbacks amid Colts’ shift to Daniel Jones
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Anthony Richardson Sr.’s future in Indianapolis faces more uncertainty than ever.
The Indianapolis Colts granted Anthony Richardson, the team that used the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on the quarterback, permission to explore a trade. His agent, Deiric Jackson, confirmed the latest development in the 23-year-old’s tumultuous career to ESPN on Thursday.
Veteran quarterback Daniel Jones beat out Richardson in a preseason competition for the starting job. Jones made the most of another opportunity as an NFL starter, helping the Colts win eight of their first 10 games of the 2025 regular season.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson heads off the field after an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
However, his season was ultimately derailed by an Achilles injury. The setback came two years after he tore an ACL with the New York Giants. The Colts appear ready to move forward with Jones, clouding Richardson’s future in Indianapolis.
Jones is set to become a free agent in March, meaning the Colts must either use the franchise tag or sign him to a new deal. Richardson has started just 15 games in three seasons with the Colts, his tenure largely shaped by injuries.
A shoulder surgery limited Richardson to four games during his rookie campaign, while a series of setbacks cost him four games in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) looks for an open receiver during the game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. (Troy Taormina/Imagn Images)
Richardson suffered what was described as a “freak pregame incident” during warmups last season, landing him on injured reserve after attempting just two passes in two games in 2025. He has thrown 11 touchdowns against 13 interceptions in his NFL career.
Colts general manager Chris Ballard said Tuesday that the vision problems stemming from Richardson’s orbital fracture last October are “trending in the right direction.” He added that Richardson has been “cleared to play.”
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) celebrates his touchdown against the New York Jets during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)
Riley Leonard, a sixth-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, is expected to return to the Colts next season.
When asked about Richardson’s standing with the Colts moving ahead, Ballard replied, “I still believe in Anthony.”
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William Hudson, a 14-year-old freshman golfer, shot 71 on Monday at Western Hills Country Club in Chino Hills to win the Servite Invitational.
“It was very important to me and my school,” Hudson said.
Some think it’s the first time a St. John Bosco student won an invitational title.
Hudson is a straight-A student who picked up his first golf club when he was 3. He has a daily routine involving practicing at 6 a.m. before heading to school. He’s also enrolled in a school entrepreneur program that involves taking classes at a junior college that will qualify for college credits.
“They are long days, but I get through it,” Hudson said.
He comes from a family that enjoys golf. His great-grandfather played until his death at 98 last year.
“I love how it can take me to interesting places and meet interesting people,” Hudson said. “I can play for the rest of my life. It’s a lifelong sport.”
It’s looking like another strong year for golfers in Southern California, with several individual champions returning, including Jaden Soong of St. Francis and Grant Leary of Crespi.
Now Hudson has thrust himself into the conversation.
This is a daily look at the positive happenings in high school sports. To submit any news, please email eric.sondheimer@latimes.com.
Sports
Dashcam video shows former WWE executive Vince McMahon rear-ending vehicle on Connecticut highway
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Police have released new video showing former WWE Chairman Vince McMahon speeding before crashing his 2024 Bentley Continental GT into another luxury car on a Connecticut highway last summer.
McMahon appeared to be followed by a state trooper in Westport moments ahead of the eventual collision. McMahon’s vehicle reached speeds of more than 100 mph, state police said.
A trooper’s dashcam video showed McMahon accelerating and then braking too late to avoid rear-ending a BMW. The car McMahon was driving then swerved into a guardrail and careened back across the highway. A cloud of dirt, apparently mixed with vehicle debris, was visible in the immediate area of the crash.
WWE owner Vince McMahon enters the arena during WrestleMania at AT&T Stadium on Apr 3, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Joe Camporeale/USA Today Sports)
“Why were you driving all over 100 mph?” a state trooper asked McMahon after catching up to the wrecked Bentley.
“I got my granddaughter’s birthday,” McMahon replied, explaining he was on his way to see her. The encounter was recorded on police bodycam video.
No serious injuries were reported in the July 24 crash, which happened the same day former professional wrestler Hulk Hogan died of a heart attack in Florida.
In an image taken from Connecticut State Police police bodycam video, Vince McMahon is questioned in his car after an accident on July 24, 2025, in Westport, Connecticut. (Connecticut State Police via The Associated Press)
Aside from the damage to the rear of the BMW, another vehicle driving on the opposite side of the parkway was struck by flying debris. The driver of that third car happened to be wearing a WWE shirt, police video suggested.
McMahon was cited for reckless driving and following too closely. In October, a state judge allowed him to enter a pretrial probation program that could erase the charges if he completes it successfully.
He was also ordered to make a $1,000 charitable contribution. His attorney, Mark Sherman, called the crash simply an “accident.”
“Not every car accident is a crime,” Sherman said. “Vince’s primary concern during this case was for the other drivers and is appreciative that the court saw this more of an accident than a crime that needed to be prosecuted.”
Vince McMahon attends a press conference to announce that WWE Wrestlemania 29 will be held at MetLife Stadium in 2013 at MetLife Stadium on Feb. 16, 2012 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Michael N. Todaro/Getty Images)
State police said a trooper was trying to catch up to McMahon on the parkway and clock his speed before pulling him over. They said the incident was not a pursuit, which happens when police chase someone trying to flee officers. They also said it did not appear McMahon was trying to escape.
“I’m trying to catch up to you, and you keep taking off,” State Police Det. Maxwell Robins said in the video.
“No, no no. I’m not trying to outrun you,” McMahon clarified.
An accident information summary provided to the media shortly after the crash did not mention that a trooper was following McMahon.
The trooper’s bodycam video also shows him asking McMahon whether he was looking at his phone when the crash happened. McMahon said he was not and added he hadn’t driven his car in a long time.
After Robins tells McMahon that his car is fast, McMahon replies, “Yeah, too (expletive) fast.”
Fox News Digital submitted a public records request to obtain the police video, which was first acquired by The Sun.
McMahon stepped down as WWE’s CEO in 2022 amid a company investigation into sexual misconduct allegations. He also resigned as executive chairman of the board of directors of TKO Group Holdings, the parent company of WWE, in 2024, a day after a former WWE employee filed a sexual abuse lawsuit against him. McMahon has denied the allegations. The lawsuit remains pending.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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