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What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

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What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin

In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”

The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.

“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.

There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.

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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.


Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)

That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:

2024 (so far)

In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.

The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).

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When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 10-1
  • +5 to +9: 13-0
  • +1 to +4: 9-1
  • Even: 1-2
  • -1 to -4: 3-4
  • -5 to -9: 0-3
  • -10 or worse: 0-1

On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.

SEC explosive plays per game

Team Explosives Opponent explosives Differential

16.00

2.67

13.33

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18.00

6.00

12.00

17.00

5.33

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11.67

10.33

2.67

7.67

11.67

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4.33

7.33

10.67

4.00

6.67

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7.67

3.00

4.67

11.00

7.00

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4.00

8.00

5.33

2.67

8.00

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6.67

1.33

6.00

5.67

0.33

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7.67

7.33

0.33

5.00

5.00

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0.00

9.00

9.67

-0.67

8.33

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9.33

-1.00

7.67

9.00

-1.33

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Source: TruMedia

Recent season history

Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
  • +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
  • +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
  • Even: 42-38 (.525)
  • -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
  • -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
  • -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)

(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)

On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.

Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.

The reason for the data

Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.

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But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.

Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.

On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.

It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.

(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)

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Caitlin Clark’s return falls flat after Fever coach limits her in loss to shorthanded Sparks

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Caitlin Clark’s return falls flat after Fever coach limits her in loss to shorthanded Sparks

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All eyes were on Caitlin Clark on Wednesday night as she made her anticipated return from injury in a road matchup in Los Angeles.

But instead of a triumphant comeback, the Fever spent the entire night chasing the Sparks as Clark’s rough return fueled a 106-92 rout.

The superstar never found a groove, looking completely out of sync in her return from a back injury.

STEPHANIE WHITE GIVES CAITLIN CLARK STATUS UPDATE AHEAD OF FEVER-SPARKS, BUT HER NEXT MOVE RAISES QUESTIONS

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Caitlin Clark huddles with teammates as the Indiana Fever battle the Sparks. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) ((Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images))

Much of that disjointed performance falls squarely on head coach Stephanie White, who kept Clark on a ridiculously tight leash by limiting her to just 16 minutes. The stop-and-go approach could have sabotaged any chance for the phenom to establish a rhythm.

Clark finished with just 9 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists. Her minus-16 plus-minus told the story.

The Los Angeles Sparks were severely shorthanded, taking the floor without stars Kelsey Plum and Cameron Brink.

MERCURY’S NOW-DELETED SOCIAL MEDIA POST MOCKING CAITLIN CLARK DRAWS SCRUTINY AFTER STAR’S INJURY

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Yet while a depleted Sparks roster played to win, Indiana spent the night over-managing its biggest asset.

With Clark on a minutes restriction and Aliyah Boston out of the lineup, Kelsey Mitchell was forced to shoulder the entire offensive burden.

Mitchell did her part, pouring in 29 points while shooting 5-of-9 from beyond the arc.

Caitlin Clark orchestrates the Fever offense as Indiana battles the Los Angeles Sparks in primetime action. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images) ((Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images))

But one hot hand couldn’t stop an efficient LA squad.

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The Sparks shot 45% from three-point range, going 9-of-20 from deep to cruise to the 106-92 victory.

White’s next move is to sit Clark against the Mercury on Thursday while Boston returns.

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After Wednesday’s loss to a shorthanded Sparks team, it’s fair to question whether Indiana’s cautious approach is working. The Fever dropped to 12-9.

Caitlin Clark and Dearica Hamby face off as Fever and Sparks battle at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Photo by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images) ((Photo by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images))

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Mookie Betts’ eighth-inning single gives Dodgers the win over the Rockies

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Mookie Betts’ eighth-inning single gives Dodgers the win over the Rockies

Mookie Betts’ first hit this series against the Rockies couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. With the crack of the ball against his bat, Tommy Edman scored from third, giving the Dodgers the lead.

And as Betts reached first, he pointed to Freddie Freeman, whose single put Edman in scoring position. It had taken a team effort to overcome another middling start from Roki Sasaki, and Betts, who had little to show before his game-winning hit, took the chance to highlight the joint contribution in the Dodgers’ 4-3 rubber-match win over Colorado (38-56).

“It feels great,” Betts said of his nine-pitch battle. “Helping the boys win, that’s really all it is. We play the game to win, and coming through in a big moment is kind of what, when you’re a kid, playing in the backyard, getting that hit is what you always strive to do, and fortunately, I was able to do it.”

Given a three-run lead in the first inning, brought to the Dodgers by a wild pitch and Kyle Tucker’s two-run, line-drive single to left field, Sasaki seemed set up for success.

Still, he gave away the lead as quickly as it came. In the second inning, he left a fastball too far over the plate, and third baseman Kyle Karros drove the ball over the left-center wall. The slider he dealt two batters later to second baseman Edouard Julien also crossed the zone too far over the plate, and Julien rounded the bases with another homer. In the third, a sacrifice fly by Mickey Moniak evened the scored, 3-3.

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Sasaki’s troubles this season have been hard to pin down since his last win on May 23, as Sasaki tries to claw back the triple-digit velocity that’s escaped him as of late.

Against the Rockies, his fastball topped out at 99.1 miles per hour before steadily dropping to 98. He had managed five strikeouts in his six innings when manager Dave Roberts replaced him with Jack Dreyer, though the three earned runs couldn’t be ignored.

But Roberts also acknowledged the possibility that the pitcher had been tipping his pitches, possibly since he was playing in Japan, and Sasaki has tried to address it after a three-inning, six-run start last week. Even if he had fully self-corrected, his control issues remain. In the third inning, he walked the tying runner, Brett Sullivan.

“I’ve been working on a lot of things like the tipping stuff,” Sasaki said through interpreter Kensuke Okubo. “Also, I need to make quality pitches.”

Sasaki regained some of his confidence in the fourth when he worked out of a two-base jam with two strikeouts and a flyball to right, something that didn’t go unnoticed by Roberts.

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“You can see the demeanor walking off the mound, the confidence,” Roberts said. “For me, it was more of let him end on a high note, feeling good about his outing, and then go from there.”

The Dodgers’ problems were compounded by Alex Call wasting the team’s two challenges in his at-bat in the first inning when the team had already taken the lead. And maybe it would’ve been excusable if Call had driven in the runners on first and second, but instead he ended the inning on a strikeout, stranding both. Roberts called the situation an “outlier” and didn’t feel as though he needed to have a conversation with Call regarding the situation.

After the three-run first, the Dodgers (61-33) remained hitless until Max Muncy laced a double down the right-field line in the sixth, though to little avail. As the innings ticked forward, Colorado’s chances seemed to increase. The Rockies hold the best league batting average (.297) in the eighth and ninth innings (the Dodgers are fourth with .268). And the Dodgers relievers, within the same constraints, have a 3.83 ERA — not bad, but not in the top 10 either.

Third baseman Max Muncy can’t get his glove on a line-drive double by Kyle Karros in the fourth inning.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

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So when Alex Vesia struggled against the Rockies in the eighth inning and Muncy suffered a throwing error, Colorado seemed in position to score with the bases loaded and one out. Vesia struck out TJ Rumfield and Edgardo Henriquez (4-0), his replacement, retired Karros on a fly ball to right.

After Betts’ single allowed the Dodgers to take the lead, Tanner Scott (13) shut down the Rockies with back-to-back strikeouts, avoiding the team’s eighth series loss of the season.

“Didn’t feel great,” Roberts said. “Fortunately, we won a series, but that’s not the kind of way you want to do it.”

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Justin Verlander announces he will retire after this season: ‘I’ve realized that time has come’

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Justin Verlander announces he will retire after this season: ‘I’ve realized that time has come’

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One of the greatest pitchers in the history of baseball will be hanging up his cleats after this season.

Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander announced on Wednesday that the 2026 season will be his last.

Amid an injury-riddled season with the Detroit Tigers, Verlander decided it’s time to go.

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Detroit Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander watches from the dugout during a game against the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park in Detroit June 21, 2026. (David Rodriguez-Munoz/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

“This season has challenged me in ways I haven’t experienced before, both physically and mentally. I’ve always believed that as long as I could compete at the level I expect of myself, I’d keep playing. I never wanted to retire because of a milestone, a number, or a date on the calendar. I wanted the game to tell me when it was time. Over the last several months, I’ve realized that time has come,” Verlander said in a social media post.

“While I’m fully committed to giving my team everything I have for the rest of this season, I’ve decided this will be my last. It’s fitting that I get to finish where it all started – with the Detroit Tigers, the organization that drafted me and gave me my first opportunity.”

Verlander inked a one-year deal with the Tigers, with whom he spent his first 12½ seasons before being traded to the Houston Astros, in the offseason. In Houston, he returned to dominance, winning both of his World Series titles and two of his Cy Young Awards.

“Baseball has given me more than I could have imagined. It taught me discipline, resilience, and the value of continuing to adapt and evolve. I’ve been fortunate to play with and against incredible players, for outstanding organizations, and compete in-front of fans who deeply appreciate the game,” Verlander added in his announcement.

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Justin Verlander of the Houston Astros celebrates after the Astros defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park Nov. 5, 2022, in Houston, Texas. (Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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“To every teammate, coach, player, clubhouse attendant, and fan who has been part of this journey – thank you. It’s been a privilege to share the field with you. To my family, especially my wife Kate, thank you for standing beside me through every season, every rehab, and every high and low. I couldn’t have done this without you. It’s time for the next chapter. But first, I’m excited to finish this season the only way I know how – with everything I’ve got.”

Verlander is the active leader with 3,554 strikeouts, which is good for eighth all-time. He needs 21 to surpass Don Sutton and 87 to pass Tom Seaver.

The 43-year-old made his MLB debut in 2005 and won the American League Rookie of the Year Award the following season in what was just a small glimpse of what was to come.

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Verlander was a Cy Young Award finalist on four other occasions, consistently near the top of the leaderboard in just about every pitching stat. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred gave Verlander a legend’s exemption to this year’s Midsummer Classic, making him a 10-time All-Star.

One could argue that Verlander should have at least one more Cy Young Award on his mantle, but he is on the fast track to Cooperstown and very much in the conversation to join Mariano Rivera as the only player unanimously elected to the Hall of Fame.

Verlander’s best season came in 2022, when he pitched to a career-best 1.75 ERA along with a 0.829 WHIP. However, that came after he missed the entire 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery for an injury he suffered after pitching just one inning in the abbreviated 2020 season.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander throws against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning Aug. 22, 2023, in Houston.  (AP Photo/Michael Wyke)

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He won his first Cy Young Award in 2011, when he was also awarded the MVP Award, and his second in 2019. Verlander’s 11 seasons between his first and final Cy Young Awards are the second-most behind Roger Clemens, who had 18 seasons between his first and seventh.

Verlander led the majors in innings and WHIP four times while recording the most strikeouts in three seasons.

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