Sports
What stat matters most in college football? Keep an eye on explosive play margin
In the old days, they were known as big plays. Or maybe long plays. It’s not clear when, or why, football people started to refer to them as “explosive plays” or just “explosives.” It was probably around the time football people started referring to position groups as “rooms.”
The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: Some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.
“People tend to slant those to whichever one is favorable to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.
There has been a growing consensus, however, that a stat is very important: Explosive play margin, as in who has more in a game, is heavily indicative of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, meaning bend-but-don’t-break defenses have the upper hand, and ground-and-pound offenses don’t.
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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a prime example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half — using the definition of explosives as rushes of 12-plus yards and passes of 16-plus — Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only had one, as Georgia’s defense gave ground but firmed up when it needed to.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 win. (Carter Skaggs / Imagn Images)
That’s just one example from this season, when the data continues to show, along with previous seasons, that explosive play margin is a key factor:
2024 (so far)
In SEC play — conference or nonconference — the team that wins explosive play margin has a 32-2 record.
The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves with penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus-two). The other one was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).
When the explosive play margin is even or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it gets. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 10-1
- +5 to +9: 13-0
- +1 to +4: 9-1
- Even: 1-2
- -1 to -4: 3-4
- -5 to -9: 0-3
- -10 or worse: 0-1
On a cumulative basis, the data is similar. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in overall explosive play margin. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.
SEC explosive plays per game
| Team | Explosives | Opponent explosives | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
|
16.00 |
2.67 |
13.33 |
|
|
18.00 |
6.00 |
12.00 |
|
|
17.00 |
5.33 |
11.67 |
|
|
10.33 |
2.67 |
7.67 |
|
|
11.67 |
4.33 |
7.33 |
|
|
10.67 |
4.00 |
6.67 |
|
|
7.67 |
3.00 |
4.67 |
|
|
11.00 |
7.00 |
4.00 |
|
|
8.00 |
5.33 |
2.67 |
|
|
8.00 |
6.67 |
1.33 |
|
|
6.00 |
5.67 |
0.33 |
|
|
7.67 |
7.33 |
0.33 |
|
|
5.00 |
5.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
9.00 |
9.67 |
-0.67 |
|
|
8.33 |
9.33 |
-1.00 |
|
|
7.67 |
9.00 |
-1.33 |
Source: TruMedia
Recent season history
Between 2019-23, SEC teams that had more explosive plays than their opponent had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they were to win, per TruMedia:
- +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
- +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
- +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
- Even: 42-38 (.525)
- -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
- -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
- -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)
(For what it’s worth, four of the 12 losses by teams with five-plus margins were during the 2020 COVID 19 season.)
On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions — and six College Football Playoff participants, meaning Georgia in 2021 — each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the national title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.
Does defense win championships? No, explosive play margin does.
The reason for the data
Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to get than they used to be: Per TruMedia, the rate of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses has gone down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.
But the defenses that force the offense to stay on the field for longer, thus increasing the chance for mistakes, give themselves a better shot.
Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown during the past four games, and in the season opener, Clemson was held to three or fewer plays on six of its 11 possessions. But on Saturday night, Kentucky only had one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger deal was preventing the Wildcats from getting into the red zone on all but one of their possessions.
On the other side of the ball, the offenses that get bigger chunk plays decrease their chances for mistakes. Time of possession, as a result, has become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) are all averaging less time of possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) are barely above the mark.
It’s a higher-scoring era, and coaches would rather have points than long drives that only get three points. Turnover margin still matters, as do field position and some other traditional factors. But explosive play margin is the one that may tell the story as much as any.
(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas / Imagn Images and Lance King / Getty Images)
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We’re approaching the biggest sporting event North America has ever hosted.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup takes place across the USA, Canada and Mexico in 13 days.
Bettors and fans already have their sights set on the global spectacle, which will kick off on June 11. The World Cup final will be held at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.
After the World Cup groups were announced in December, Spain opened as the favorite at +450, followed by England (+550) and France (+750).
Now, with less than two weeks to go, Spain has slightly drifted to +475, with both France and England making up ground on the oddsboard.
Let’s dive into the odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 29.
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2026 World Cup winner odds
Spain: +475 (bet $10 to win $57.5 total)
France: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)
England: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Brazil: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Argentina: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Portugal: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Germany: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Netherlands: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Norway: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Belgium: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Colombia: +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Morocco: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Uruguay: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
United States: +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total)
Switzerland: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
Japan: +6500 (bet $10 to win $660 total)
Mexico: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Croatia: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Ecuador: +8000 (bet $10 to win $810 total)
Senegal: +9000 (bet $10 to win $910 total)
Sweden: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
HOST NATIONS
United States
The United States is led by Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, and Chris Richards, with several players competing in Europe’s top leagues. The U.S. has appeared in 11 previous World Cups, with its best finish coming in 1930 when the team reached the semifinals.
Canada
Canada’s key players include Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, giving the squad top-tier pace and goal-scoring ability. Canada has made two previous World Cup appearances, and is still looking for its first win ever in the tournament.
Mexico
Mexico’s top contributors include Raul Giménez and Edson Álvarez, forming a strong mix of attacking talent and midfield stability. Mexico has played in 17 previous World Cups and reached the quarterfinals twice, in 1970 and 1986.
UEFA TEAMS TO KNOW
Spain
Spain’s top talents include Pedri, Lamine Yamal and Rodri, forming a core that blends elite playmaking with scoring depth. Spain has appeared in 16 previous World Cups and won the tournament once, lifting the trophy in 2010. The team also won the 2024 Euros.
France
France enters with Kylian Mbappé as the star player, with the 26-year-old just five goals shy of passing Miroslav Klose (16) for the most career goals at the World Cup. France has made 16 previous World Cup appearances and won the title twice, in 1998 and 2018.
England
England’s key players include Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice, forming one of the nation’s strongest generations in decades. England has reached 16 previous World Cups and won the trophy once, in 1966.
Germany
Germany features Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala and Joshua Kimmich as central figures in a talented squad. Germany has participated in 20 previous World Cups and won four titles, most recently in 2014.
Portugal
Portugal’s top group includes Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha, with Cristiano Ronaldo still involved as the team’s all-time leading scorer and cap leader. Portugal has competed in eight previous World Cups and recorded its best finish in 2006, reaching the semifinals.
Netherlands
The Netherlands features top players such as Virgil van Dijk, Ryan Gravenberch and Denzel Dumfries, forming a core built around elite defending and midfield control. Memphis Depay should also be on the team, the country’s all-time leading goalscorer. The Netherlands has appeared in 11 previous World Cups and finished as runner-up three times, in 1974, 1978 and 2010.
CONMEBOL TEAMS TO KNOW
Argentina
Argentina is anchored by Lionel Messi, with Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez— headlining one of the most talented rosters in the tournament. Argentina has played in 18 previous World Cups and won three, including the most recent tournament in 2022.
Brazil
Brazil’s roster is led by Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha and Marquinhos, giving the team elite attacking and defensive quality. Brazil has appeared in every World Cup and holds a record five titles, with its most recent one coming in 2002.
Uruguay
Uruguay’s leading players include Federico Valverde, Darwin Núñez and Ronald Araújo, forming a core with elite midfield range and speed. Uruguay has appeared in 14 previous World Cups and won the tournament twice, in 1930 and 1950.
Colombia
Colombia is headlined by Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez, with the former playing for Bayern Munich and the latter having a decorated World Cup résumé. Colombia has made six previous World Cupsand recorded its best finish in 2014, reaching the quarterfinals.
CAF TEAMS TO KNOW
Morocco
Morocco’s key contributors include Achraf Hakimi, Noussair Mazaroui and Brahm Díaz, each with major European club experience. Morocco has appeared in six previous World Cups and achieved its historic best finish in 2022, reaching the semifinals.
Senegal
Senegal’s top players include Sadio Mané, Kalidou Koulibaly and Idrissa Gueye, forming one of Africa’s most experienced cores. Senegal has appeared in three World Cups and reached its best finish in 2002, advancing to the quarterfinals.
Ghana
Ghana is led by Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo and Inaki Williams, giving the squad strong playmaking and midfield presence. Ghana has competed in four previous World Cups and reached its best result in 2010, making the quarterfinals.
AFC TEAMS TO KNOW
South Korea
South Korea is headlined by Son Heung-min, supported by key players such as Kim Min-jae and Lee Kang-in. South Korea has played in 11 previous World Cups and reached its best finish in 2002, advancing to the semifinals as co-host.
Japan
Japan features Takefusa Kubo and Kaoru Mitoma as its leading players, blending top European experience with emerging talent. Japan has appeared in seven previous World Cups and reached the Round of 16 four times, its best result to date.
Australia
Australia’s top players include Jackson Irvine and keeper Mathew Ryan as its most experienced members. Australia has competed in six previous World Cups and reached the round of 16 twice, in 2006 and 2022.
OFC TEAMS TO KNOW
New Zealand
New Zealand is led by all-time leading scorer Chris Wood, with 45 international goals to his name. New Zealand has appeared in two previous World Cups (1982, 2010), and did not advance from the group stage in either appearance.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander apparently isn’t amused by a new board game that pokes fun at the Oklahoma City Thunder star’s reputation for garnering foul calls at the hint of contact by an opposing player.
Last week, a lawyer representing the two-time reigning NBA MVP sent a cease-and-desist letter to sports prediction market and fantasy sports company Underdog that includes a demand for the destruction of all copies of the cheeky and extremely limited-edition game Unethical Hoops.
Done in the style of the children’s classic Operation, Unethical Hoops requires players to use tweezers to pull objects from tiny holes, with the slightest touch of a metal border setting off a buzzer indicating failure.
Instead of pretending to be doctors attempting to remove body parts from a patient, however, Unethical Hoops players act as members of an opposing basketball team trying to take the ball from a cartoon character who very much resembles Gilgeous-Alexander.
In this game, the buzzer represents the whistle of a foul-calling referee.
“Shai has made hoops all about foul baiting and now you’re stuck guarding him in Underdog’s new board game,” a description reads on the game’s website. “Don’t get baited. Steal the ball without getting whistled.”
In a letter dated May 22, attorney Eric Fishman of ArentFox Schiff LLP demanded that Underdog “immediately and permanently cease and desist from any and all use of Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander’s NIL in any and all media, including but not limited to your website (including the Unethical Hoops Website)… and any physical goods including but not limited to the board game advertised on the Unethical Hoops Website.”
The notice also calls for Underdog to “immediately destroy all physical goods or advertisements that use Mr. Gilgeous-Alexander’s NIL, including but not limited to the board game advertised on the Unethical Hoops Website,” as well as a promise never to use the star player’s name, image or likeness without his permission.
Fishman did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Times.
According to the Unethical Hoops website, which remains active more than a week after the date on the cease-and-desist order, only 100 copies of the game were made, to be given away to Underdog users. The giveaway ended as scheduled on Friday.
Underdog declined to comment on the matter other than to point out that the company has pulled comical stunts at the expense of members of the sports world.
“We’ve poked fun at Knicks and Lakers fans, the Red Sox owners, the Mets and more,” a spokesperson said via email. “We like to have some fun with whatever is in the sports fan zeitgeist.”
Gilgeous-Alexander is a four-time All-Star who led the league in scoring last season (2,484 points) and was second in scoring this season (2,117). He led the Thunder to their first NBA title last year and has them back in the Western Conference finals this year (the decisive Game 7 against the San Antonio Spurs is Saturday in Oklahoma City).
While one of the NBA’s biggest stars, Gilgeous-Alexander is often criticized for the number of favorable foul calls he receives — he has ranked second or third in the league for number of free throw attempts per game in each of the last four seasons and is currently second among all players in the 2026 playoffs with 9.8 a game — and the lengths he appears to go to in order to receive them.
After Game 2 against the Spurs, one NBA fan account on X wrote, “Shai flopped on every single shot attempt” and posted a video that showed seven such examples (Gilgeous-Alexander actually attempted 24 shots that night). The post has been viewed 22.7 million times.
Earlier this week, prior to Game 6 of the conference finals, another fan account on X posted a video “ranking all 44 times SGA fell on the floor while shooting during the 2026 playoffs from least to most egregious.” That post has been viewed 1.3 million times.
As the cartoon likeness of Gilgeous-Alexander states in the Unethical Hoops ad, “so much as breathe on me, I’m getting the call.”
The real-life SGA was asked during a TV interview after Game 3 in San Antonio about the “flopper!” chants that rained down on him at Frost Bank Center.
“It’s part of the game,” he said. “It’s nothing. I’ve been dealing with it for a long time. I don’t really hear it. I’m focused on what’s going on on the court.”
Sports
Spurs blow out Thunder, force Game 7 as Victor Wembanyama leads the way with 28-point double-double
Trump says he thinks he’ll attend NBA Finals game
President Donald Trump said during a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday that he believes he will attend an NBA Finals game next week, as the New York Knicks make their first Finals appearance in nearly 30 years.
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The Western Conference Finals will come down to a Game 7 after the San Antonio Spurs routed the Oklahoma City Thunder, 118-91, in Game 6 on Thursday night.
Game 7 heads back to Oklahoma City, where the winner will face the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals after New York swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
With their backs against the wall, the Spurs did what was necessary on their home court and then some. And it was their phenom, Victor Wembanyama, leading the way.
Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs reacts during the first half against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game Six of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, on May 28, 2026. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
The 7-foot-4 big man led the Spurs with 28 points on 10-of-21 shooting, including four three-pointers made, while notching a double-double with 10 rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocks.
This was the performance head coach Mitch Johnson and the rest of the team needed from Wembanyama, and he was up for the challenge as the Thunder were looking to make it back-to-back NBA Finals appearances.
Instead, the Thunder’s three-point shooting woes returned in San Antonio, much like they did in Game 4 of this series. They took a whopping 40 threes, but only cashed in 10 of them, finishing 25% from beyond the arc on the night.
SPURS SNAP THUNDER’S PLAYOFF WIN STREAK BEHIND VICTORY WEMBANYAMA’S INCREDIBLE GAME 1 PERFORMANCE
As a team, the Thunder shot just 37%, and MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is among the culprits for the poor shooting night. He had just 15 points, going 6-of-18 from the field and 0-of-5 from three-point land. Lu Dort was also ice cold from three, going just 1-of-9 and 2-of-11 for the game.
Meanwhile, San Antonio was getting more than just “Wemby” contributions, especially from rookie Dylan Harper, who played a vital role in the blowout off the bench.
Dylan Harper of the San Antonio Spurs looks on during the first quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, on May 28, 2026. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Harper was quite efficient when he had the ball in his hands, going 6-of-9 from the field for 18 points, while tallying six rebounds and four assists in his pivotal 22 minutes off the pine.
And in the starting five, Stephon Castle was getting to the rim like he’s supposed to, scoring 17 points while dishing out nine assists for the Spurs. Devin Vassell also hit four of his seven three-point shots for 12 points, while Julian Champagnie poured in 10 more with six rebounds, two assists, one steal and two blocks on the other end of the hardwood.
The Spurs saw 12 different players contribute on the scoreboard in this contest, some of whom made their way into the game when the Thunder conceded and already started to focus on Game 7. And that swing came in the third quarter, when the Spurs outscored the Thunder, 32-13, and started to run away with this must-win game for their franchise.
San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama shoots against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first half of Game 6 in the Western Conference finals NBA playoffs in San Antonio on May 28, 2026. (David J. Phillip/AP)
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Now, folks, it all comes down to the ever-suspenseful Game 7, where the Thunder will hope one last home game will give them the juice to push their way into the Finals.
But the Spurs are hoping to recreate 1999 by earning a matchup with the Knicks in the NBA Finals.
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