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Shaikin: Polymarket shouldn't allow people to profit by betting on the L.A. firestorm

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Shaikin: Polymarket shouldn't allow people to profit by betting on the L.A. firestorm

In our sporting corner of the world, betting is everywhere.

Consider Major League Baseball: The league has official gaming partners, the broadcast home of its “Sunday Night Baseball” showcase boasts an official sportsbook, and the Dodgers’ World Series celebration was sponsored by a local resort and casino. On the television screen, the bottom line provides updates on odds as well as scores.

You can bet on the next pitch, the next home run, the next game, the next World Series. You might enjoy betting on sports, or you might disdain it.

Betting on tragedy? Profiting off the pain of our community? We all should condemn that.

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Polymarket, which bills itself as a “prediction market,” invited you as of Thursday to stake some bucks on 18 questions related to the Southern California wildfires, including these: How many acres will the Palisades wildfire burn by Friday? Will the Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisades wildfire be 50% contained? Will all L.A. wildfires be fully contained before February?

“My guess,” said Nathaniel Fast, director of the USC Neely Center for Ethical Leadership and Decision Making, “is that most people don’t like the idea of individuals betting on or making money off disasters and catastrophes.”

Polymarket aims to set the chance of something happening, then harness collective opinion to adjust that probability in real time.

For instance, with the chance of the Palisades wildfire being 50% contained by Jan. 19 set at 86% on Thursday, you would take “yes” and could win $102 or would take “no” and could win $571. The market adjusts the chance, and in turn the chance adjusts the market.

In a statement to The Times, a Polymarket spokesman said: “These markets address the same questions being discussed across cable news and X. We’ve proven that prediction markets can be an invaluable alternative information source for those seeking real-time quantitative data.”

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Said Fast: “I have a hard time imagining that people are logging onto Polymarket to decide whether or not to evacuate.

“On the other hand, though, if they are able to demonstrate repeatedly in events like this that they really can generate accurate forecasts, I think it’s possible that, in the future, this could prove to be a useful tool.”

In the torrent of social media misinformation generated by an event and its immediate aftermath, prediction markets driven in part by social media run a risk of their own.

On its site, Polymarket says this is one criterion for the company opening a prediction market: “Is there social good or news value in understanding the probability generated by the market?”

Said Fast: “It could create the incentive to influence events or, in the case of wildfires, it could lead to a callous attitude toward others’ suffering. If we are gamifying life-and-death issues, it could really negatively influence culture and society in a way we don’t like.”

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Polymarket offers odds on such topics as the NFL playoffs, whether Donald Trump will follow through on his pledge to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, whether Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged this year, and how many times Elon Musk will tweet in a given week.

All good. But this is not the first time Polymarket has used disaster as the basis for investment.

In 2023, after the submersible Titan was lost at sea en route to the Titanic, Polymarket asked: “Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?” Mother Jones found two investors, one who bet yes and one who bet no.

“Despite taking opposite sides of the bet, thanks to clever playing of the odds,” Mother Jones reported, “both … came away with thousands of dollars.”

Polymarket does not. According to the company spokesperson, Polymarket “does not charge fees on any market and currently does not generate any revenue.”

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That might be the only thing worse than a company profiting off human misfortune: a tech startup enabling lots of people to profit off human misfortune.

The Polymarket statement to The Times started this way: “We express our deepest sympathies to everyone affected by these fires and appreciate the heroic work underway by first responders and everyday Angelenos.”

The statement is hollow so long as people still can stake their dollars on the calamities befalling everyday Angelenos. Polymarket should take down those wildfire odds. Those six historic words from 1954 ring true today: Have you no sense of decency?

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CM Punk to defend Undisputed WWE Championship against Cody Rhodes at SummerSlam

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CM Punk to defend Undisputed WWE Championship against Cody Rhodes at SummerSlam

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CM Punk appeared on “Friday Night SmackDown” ready to take on any challenger that was ready to step to him after winning the Undisputed WWE Championship against Sami Zayn.

Punk entered the ring in Oklahoma City and called back to the “Monday Night Raw” after WrestleMania 42 when he told Cody Rhodes he’d be ready to deliver if a championship opportunity fell “out of the sky.”

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Cody Rhodes and CM Punk face off during SmackDown at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla. (Craig Ambrosio/WWE via Getty Images)

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“When championship opportunities fall out of the sky, CM Punk catches them,” he said.

Punk named potential SmackDown superstars he’d think might come for the title, including Gunther, Finn Balor, Royce Keys, Damian Priest and Trick Williams. He even said that Zayn could come back around and get his rematch if he wanted. He didn’t mention Rhodes’ name, but the “American Nightmare” came out uncalled and marched his way down to the ring.

“I don’t think you and I can run away from each other anymore,” Punk told Rhodes.

Cody Rhodes looks on during SmackDown at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., on July 10, 2026. (Craig Ambrosio/WWE via Getty Images)

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Rhodes agreed and mentioned that Punk would want a match with him, just “say when.” It was a quick retort from Punk, who said, “when.” SmackDown general manager Nick Aldis, who was in the ring for the segment, booked the match for SummerSlam.

Punk will defend the Undisputed WWE Championship at SummerSlam, which takes place Aug. 1 and 2 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

First, however, Punk and Rhodes will be involved in a tag team match at Saturday Night’s Main Event in New York City next week. Aldis made the match after Gunther demanded that Aldis put him in a match against Punk. Gunther was hoping it would be for the championship. Instead, Gunther will tag with Zayn.

Gunther didn’t take too kindly to that and attacked Aldis. Rhodes came back out to break up the calamity. He wanted to take on Gunther after the show went off air but Gunther walked away.

Gunther makes his entrance during SmackDown at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Okla., on July 10, 2026. (Rich Wade/WWE via Getty Images)

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Punk definitely has his hands full as he moves to SmackDown to become a fighting champion.

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World Cup fans flock to In-N-Out, Erewhon and Trader Joe’s for a taste of California

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World Cup fans flock to In-N-Out, Erewhon and Trader Joe’s for a taste of California

World Cup tourists are coming to L.A. for the soccer, but they’re staying for the $21 smoothies and Double-Doubles.

As the last Los Angeles FIFA World Cup event ended Friday, soccer fans were eating like locals and famous chains from the region were cashing in.

In the weeks that L.A. has hosted the World Cup, international soccer enthusiasts have flocked to big brands from the area, often in large groups wearing their countries’ jerseys.

It is a phenomenon seen at many of the host cities. In Dallas, giant gas station Buc-ee’s is the main attraction. For people visiting New Jersey, deli shops have been a hot ticket. In L.A., the place to be between matches was Erewhon.

Thirsty international sports fans gathered for pictures outside different Erewhons, wandered their aisles smiling, and, of course, picked up pricey smoothies.

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While Erewhon would not comment on its business, mobility data company Arity, which uses phone data to track consumers, said Erewhon visits at the outlets around SoFi Stadium were quadruple what they were a week earlier on June 12, the day of the U.S. national soccer team’s opening match there.

Arity looked at what stores people visited within a 10-mile radius of SoFi that day and also found surges in visitors to nearby El Pollo Loco and Trader Joe’s.

Locals have spotted groups of people in Korea jerseys huddled together, trying to decide what to order at In-N-Out.

Some complained on social media that international tourists at Trader Joe’s were buying up all the mini canvas tote bags.

Soon after the Belgium vs. Spain quarterfinal ended Friday, the In-N-Out near SoFi had a long line of soccer fans stretching out the door in bright red and yellow and black jerseys and matching striped hats and scarves.

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One of the workers said he had to explain “spread” and “animal style” to foreign football fans.

“I didn’t know this place existed,” a fan from Romania said while waiting in line.

Los Angeles and other cities and states that have hosted the event need the soccer fans to spend money to make the event worth all the time, effort and money it requires.

A rosy 2024 report projected the World Cup could bring more than $800 million to the L.A. region as 180,000 people converge on the area to sleep, eat and spend.

There were early concerns people weren’t turning up for the event because of the high ticket prices and the difficulty of obtaining visas for citizens of some countries.

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However, at least for some L.A. hotels, there was a surge of last-minute visitors which pushed up occupancy and room rates.

While sports fans are not in the region to shop, they do make time for it.

World Cup customer spending is also apparent in beer sales. Andrew Heritage, the chief economist at the Beer Institute said beer purchases at entertainment and attractions in L.A. – outside of World Cup spaces – were up around 10% from normal.

“That tells me that fans in the L.A. area have decided to extend their stay and take in all the other things that the area has to offer, rather than just the match itself,” he said.

On social media, the purpose of these shoppers is clear: grab a quick souvenir or local specialty and take a selfie.

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The data from Arity suggests that fans are very efficient when they spend at local spots, diving in, getting what they want and getting out as soon as possible, said Jeff Schlitt, a director at the company.

“Normally you’re there for an hour. They’re going to be there for 15, 18 minutes,” he said. “Why is that? Because they were purpose-driven shoppers.”

For some travelers, the more popular American chains aren’t unfamiliar. But some of the native L.A. fare still comes as a surprise.

As one Belgium-Spain matchgoer from the Netherlands stood taking a picture of the In-N-Out sign after the game, he said he’d never had a burger like the one he’d just tried.

“We only have McDonald’s and Burger King,” he said. “It’s way better.”

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Shohei Ohtani ruled out of MLB All-Star Game as Dodgers plan to manage nagging injury

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Shohei Ohtani ruled out of MLB All-Star Game as Dodgers plan to manage nagging injury

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The face of baseball will not be at Tuesday’s All-Star Game.

Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his start on Friday as the Los Angeles Dodgers said he will also miss the Midsummer Classic with what the team called left knee irritation.

Ohtani, for obvious reasons, has become an All-Star Game fixture. He has earned the honor in each of the past five seasons and made his first start in 2021.

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Starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers warms up before the MLB game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 03, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The two-way phenom is on his way to winning his fifth MVP award in his last six seasons as he is hitting .290 with a .939 OPS and pitching to a minuscule 1.79 ERA, the second-lowest in the sport among pitchers with 80-plus innings. His OPS is also the seventh-best mark in the league.

The Dodgers said Ohtani will be the team’s designated hitter up until the break, but he will “have some interventions on his knee to put him in the best position for the second half of the season.”

Ohtani dealt with knee issues earlier in the season.

It is certainly a big hit for the game as the other face of the sport, Aaron Judge, will miss the game due to a fractured rib that has kept him out since late May.

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Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets ready in the on deck circle against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 01, 2026 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) (Norm Hall/Getty Images)

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Ohtani hit 99 home runs combined in 2024 and 2025, leading the National League with a 1.025 OPS in that span. Ohtani did not pitch in 2024 after elbow surgery but returned to the bump last year and owned a 2.87 ERA and 11.9 K/9, a figure he also put up in 2022 that led the American League.

The “Japanese Babe Ruth” is the only player in MLB history to have 300-plus plate appearances and 40-plus innings in six separate seasons (Ruth only did it twice and never stole 50 bases), and he has more than excelled at both.

Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the San Francisco Giants at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California, on May 13, 2026. (Gary A. Vasquez/Imagn Images)

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Ohtani is not hitting like he has in the past, but certainly the best pitching performance of his career will make up for it. He “only” has 20 homers and 56 RBI this season.

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