Sports
Projecting final 4 NFL playoff teams’ odds to win Super Bowl, with conference title game analysis
The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After dispatching the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They’re now just two wins away from the greatest achievement in the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down the conference championship game matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The powers of the AFC wouldn’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.
The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday evening with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outdueled fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16-of-22 for 127 yards with a couple of rushing scores to help ward off Baltimore’s comeback bid.
The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they knocked off the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry plenty of weight, and the Chiefs are the most well-balanced team in the field.
The Chiefs, as we mentioned earlier, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.
It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t been making mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in a loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover over their past eight games. That’ll be a focal point against the Bills, who notched three takeaways Sunday against the Ravens and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes hasn’t gotten a lot of help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped considerably during the regular season, but Kelce is as clutch as ever in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch. He also has led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.
And yet, the NFL’s modern-day dynasty will be tasked with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?
Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception when the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three consecutive wins over the previous four years.
• Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 30.1%
• Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 25.5%
Chances to win the Super Bowl
|
Team
|
Odds
|
|---|---|
|
33.5% |
|
|
30.1% |
|
|
25.5% |
|
|
11% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular-season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 home victory in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.
The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points was the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The far more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.
So what happens if the Eagles can’t drum up enough takeaways in the third installment? Maybe that’s also a moot point, as they had a narrow 1-0 edge in takeaways in the earlier win. It’s a rare occasion when turnovers haven’t made the difference in either outcome.
Still, the Commanders won’t want to test that theory any further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal second-half stretch as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.
GO DEEPER
The Commanders are a win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a bit
Daniels has had the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level during their pair of road victories in the playoffs. They’ve scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding sequences to close out halves, and have punted just a single time. They’ve turned it over on downs three times — a risk-reward formula that’s been a net positive — but don’t have any interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.
Daniels’ command in all situations has been remarkable. While the rookie possesses a clutch gene that’s come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night of keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to scores on four of their five possessions following a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continuously kept the ball moving when the Lions were attempting to make a run.
Daniels will need to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he’ll rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from a concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, although he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. Wide receivers A.J. Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact as a result.
But fear not, as the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The best offseason addition in the league had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.
These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington taking their wild-card matchup on Jan. 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 33.5%
• Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 11%
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)
Sports
NBA player calls for Hawks to cancel their ‘Magic City’ strip club promotional night out of respect for women
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An NBA player has taken exception to an Atlanta Hawks promotional night, which is a nod to a famed strip club in the city.
The Hawks have “Magic City Night” scheduled for March 16 against the Orlando Magic, but a player for neither team isn’t too fond of paying tribute to a strip club, which has been famed for its late-night stories involving athletes, celebrities and more.
While the Hawks call it an ode to a “cultural institution,” San Antonio Spurs center Luke Kornet shared his displeasure in a letter posted on Medium.
Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs reaches for the ball during the third quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on Feb. 26, 2026 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Ishika Samant/Getty Images)
Kornet, a nine-year veteran and 2024 NBA champion with the Boston Celtics, called for the Hawks’ promotional night to be canceled later this month, saying that it is disrespectful to women to honor the strip club.
“In its press release, the Hawks failed to acknowledge that this place is, as the business itself boasts, “Atlanta’s premier strip club.” Given this fact, I would like to respectfully ask that the Atlanta Hawks cancel this promotional night with Magic City,” Kornet wrote in his post.
“The NBA should desire to protect and esteem women, many of whom work diligently every day to make this the best basketball league in the world. We should promote an atmosphere that is protective and respectful of the daughters, wives, sisters, mothers, and partners that we know and love.”
The Hawks boasted about the theme night in its press release, including a live performance by famous Atlanta rapper T.I., a co-branded, limited-edition hoodie and even the establishment’s “World Famous” lemon-pepper chicken wings in the arena.
A general view of signage with the State Farm Arena logo on Nov. 14, 2025, outside State Farm Arena, in Atlanta, GA. (Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire)
“This collaboration and theme night is very meaningful to me after all the work that we did to put together ’Magic City: An American Fantasy’,” said Hawks principal owner, filmmaker and actor, Jami Gertz, said in a press release. “The iconic Atlanta institution has made such an incredible impact on our city and its unique culture.”
Kornet wrote that allowing the night to continue “without protest would reflect poorly on us as an NBA community, “specifically in being complicit in the potential objectification and mistreatment of women in our society.”
Kornet wrote that “others throughout the league” were surprised by the Hawks’ decision to have this promotional night.
“We desire to provide an environment where fans of all ages can safely come and enjoy the game of basketball and where we can celebrate the history and culture of communities in good conscience. The celebration of a strip club is not conduct aligned with that vision,” he wrote.
Luke Kornet of the San Antonio Spurs defends against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on Jan. 31, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
The Hawks have seen good reception for the promotional night, as Tick Pick reported a get-in price was initially $10 for the game and has since skyrocketed to $94.
Kornet is in his first season with the Spurs, his sixth NBA team, where he has played mainly in a bench role. He averages 7.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game across 50 contests.
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Sports
Shaikin: Clayton Kershaw’s ‘perfect’ ending has one final chapter in WBC
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — How do you improve on the perfect ending?
Clayton Kershaw stood in the desert heat Monday, wearing a far darker shade of blue than the Dodgers do. He does not need a medal, or a chance to fail. His election to the Hall of Fame will be a formality.
In his farewell year, the Dodgers won the World Series, becoming baseball’s first back-to-back champions in 25 years. He secured a critical out. He bathed in adoration at the championship rally, and he told the fans he would be one of them this year.
“I’m going to watch,” he hollered that day, “just like all of you.”
Four months later, he was back in uniform.
He wore a dark blue jersey with red-and-white piping. As Team USA ran through its first World Baseball Classic workout, Kershaw participated in pitchers’ fielding practice and shagged fly balls during batting practice. He could have been home with his five kids, and instead he was rushing off the mound to take a throw at first base.
That November night in Toronto, as it turned out, was not the last time we would see him in uniform.
“Feels good,” he said Monday. “I wouldn’t put on a uniform for anything else. This is a special thing.”
He put the World Baseball Classic into red, white and blue perspective.
“It’s a bucket list thing for me,” he said.
He is either self-deprecating or painfully honest about his capabilities right now, or perhaps a little of both.
The last World Baseball Classic came down to Shohei Ohtani pitching to Mike Trout. This one could come down to Kershaw pitching to Ohtani.
“I think, for our country’s sake, it’s probably better if I don’t,” Kershaw said.
Former Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw fields a ground ball during a workout at Papago Park Sports Complex on Monday.
(Chris Coduto / Getty Images)
Never say never. Team USA planned to run a tremendous rotation of Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Joe Ryan and Logan Webb, but now Skubal says he will pitch just once in the tournament. Skenes says he’ll pitch twice. Ryan says he won’t pitch in the first round, at least.
Kershaw might be needed beyond the role he was promised: save the team from using the current major league pitchers in blowouts or extra innings.
In 11 career at-bats against Kershaw, Ohtani has no hits. Kershaw won’t duck the assignment if gets it, but he considers it so unlikely he is happy to share his game plan publicly.
“It’s throw it, pitch away, play away, hope he flies out to left,” Kershaw said. “Don’t throw it in his barrel.
“I can’t imagine, if it comes down to USA versus Japan, with the arms that we have, that I’ll be needed. But I’ll be ready.”
Kershaw’s average fastball velocity dropped to 89 mph last season, but he led the majors in winning percentage. He could eat innings for some team — maybe even the Dodgers, with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone all but certain to be unavailable on opening day.
Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw, right, celebrates with teammates after the Dodgers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays for the 2025 World Series title.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
But, even with his success last year and even with the joy of wearing a uniform once again, he insists he isn’t interested in pitching beyond the WBC.
“I don’t want to,” he said. “You can’t end it better than I did last year. I had a great time last year. It was an absolute blast and honor to be on that team. I think that was the perfect way to end it. Honestly, I don’t know if I would have enough in the tank to pitch for a full season again. I’m really at peace with that decision.
“This is kind of a weird one-off thing, but you can’t really turn down this opportunity. It wasn’t easy to get ready for this, with no motivation for a season, but I actually am in a pretty good spot with my arm. I’ll be fine. If they need me, I’ll be ready.”
Kershaw said he has kept in touch with his old Dodgers teammates, with some connecting on video calls from the weight room or clubhouse at Camelback Ranch. He arrived in the Phoenix area two days before the workout, but he skipped a trip to Camelback Ranch.
“I’ve thought about it,” he said. “I miss the guys. I think it’s probably just better, at least for this first year, for me mentally to just stay away, just for spring training.”
Kershaw said he would be at Dodger Stadium for the championship ring ceremony March 27.
He is content with what he calls “Dad life.” He and his wife, Ellen, just welcomed their fifth child, and Dad life includes lots of shuttles to baseball and basketball practice.
“I run an Uber service,” Kershaw said.
This wouldn’t be a Dodgers story these days without some reference to the team’s big spending so, for what it’s worth, Kershaw spent some time Tuesday chatting with Skubal, who will be the grand prize on the free-agent market next winter, or whenever the likely lockout might end.
That’s a rational explanation, Kershaw says, for Skubal pitching just once in the WBC.
“Everybody knows the situation he is in, contract-wise,” Kershaw said. “Any innings we can get out of him is a huge bonus to this team. He’s great. Super competitive. We’re honored to have him.”
Should we assume Skubal will be pitching for the Dodgers next season? Kershaw laughed.
“No comment,” he said, then walked away to get ready for the first game of his post-retirement life.
Sports
Charles Barkley scolds sports fans for getting wrapped up in Olympic hockey frenzy
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Basketball Hall of Famer Charles Barkley sounded off on the frenzied reactions to the U.S. men’s hockey team getting invited to the White House by President Donald Trump.
Trump talked to the Olympic gold medal-winning team immediately after they defeated Canada in overtime last weekend. He said they would be invited to his State of the Union address and added that he needed to invite the women’s team as well or he would be “impeached.”
Charles Barkley sits courtside against the Minnesota Timberwolves during an NBA Cup game at Mortgage Matchup Center on Nov. 21, 2025. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
Trump critics took the joke as a shot at the women’s team, which sparked questions from NHL and Professional Women’s Hockey League reporters as the players returned to their respective club teams.
“I’m proud of the United States men. I’m proud of the United States women. You should have invited both of them to the White House, but it shouldn’t have been disrespect, misogyny,” Barkley said on the “Steam Room” podcast. “Like, yo, man, why do y’all have to mess everything up? Everything isn’t Democrat, Republican, conservative, liberal. That’s why we got this divided, screwed up country. Stop it man. Because, you know, the public, they’re idiots. They’re fools. They can’t think for themselves. I know y’all say stuff to trigger them. Y’all say stuff and y’all know they’re going to be fools.”
Barkley lamented that the average person would get riled up over the supposed controversy.
The U.S. team poses for a group photo after defeating Canada in the men’s ice hockey gold medal game at the 2026 Winter Olympics. Milan, Italy, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Luca Bruno/AP Photo)
“We don’t have to fall for stupidity. But we do – that’s my point. These people out here are stupid. They need something to trigger them. Just because they want us to be stupid. We don’t have to be stupid. He should have invited both teams to the White House. Simple as that. Guys who didn’t want to go shouldn’t have to explain why they didn’t go.”
The former Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets and Phoenix Suns star made clear he would go to the White House regardless of whether Trump was in office.
“I’ve said this before, I’m not a Trump guy. But if I got invited to the White House, I would go. I’m not a Trump guy – I want to make that clear. But I respect the office,” Barkley said. “He’s the president of the United States. But if guys don’t want to go, I understand that too. It doesn’t have to be a talking point. It doesn’t have to be un-American.
Megan Keller (5) celebrates with a flag alongside Cayla Barnes (3) of Team United States after scoring the game-winning goal in overtime during the women’s gold medal match against Canada on Day 13 of the Milan Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic Games at Milan Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy, on Feb. 19, 2026. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
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“I just wish y’all would stop falling for the stupidity.”
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