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High-stakes map fight: Here are the next battlegrounds in the Trump vs. Democrats redistricting showdown

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High-stakes map fight: Here are the next battlegrounds in the Trump vs. Democrats redistricting showdown

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In the high-stakes battle over congressional redistricting, President Donald Trump suffered a stinging setback this week, days after the Supreme Court handed him a major victory.

After months of arm-twisting by the president, top allies and aligned groups, the GOP-dominated Indiana Senate on Thursday voted down a new map championed by Trump that would have created two more right-leaning congressional districts in the solidly red Midwestern state, where Republicans control seven of Indiana’s nine U.S. House seats. 

The showdown in Indiana came a week after the Supreme Court cleared the way for Republican-dominated Texas to use its newly redrawn map, which creates five more right-leaning House seats.

Indiana was the latest battleground in Trump’s aggressive national campaign to reshape congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Republicans, as the party in power, will likely face traditional political headwinds as they defend their razor-thin House majority.

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STUNNING SETBACK FOR TRUMP IN REDISTRICTING WARS

Indiana Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith announces the results of a vote to redistrict the state’s congressional map, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025, at the Statehouse in Indianapolis. (Michael Conroy/AP Photo)

By championing rare but not unheard-of mid-decade redistricting, Trump is aiming to prevent what happened during his first term in the White House when Democrats reclaimed the House majority in the 2018 midterm elections.

Democrats are pushing back, as they hope to negate the push by the president and his allies.

BIG WIN FOR TRUMP AS SUPREME COURT GREENLIGHTS TEXAS’ NEW CONGRESSIONAL MAP

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Here’s a look at where things stand, and what’s next in the fierce fight over redrawing the maps.

Current balance of power

Republicans currently hold a 220-213 majority in the House, with two Democratic-held seats vacant.

But the number of GOP lawmakers in the chamber will drop to 219 early next month when Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a MAGA firebrand who had a falling out with the president, leaves.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., a MAGA firebrand who had a falling out with President Donald Trump, announced she’ll resign from Congress in January. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

A special election will be held on Jan. 31 to fill the seat left vacant when Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas died last March.

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And a special election will be held on April 16 to fill the seat left vacant when Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned last month after being elected New Jersey governor.

As of now, the Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win back the House majority in next year’s midterms.

Where things stand in redistricting wars

Six states have new congressional maps: California, Missouri, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Utah.

The Republican pickup of five seats in Texas is canceled out by the drawing of five more left-leaning seats in Democratic-dominated California.

HOUSE GOP CAMPAIGN CHAIR WANTS TRUMP ‘OUT THERE ON THE TRAIL’ IN MIDTERM BATTLE FOR MAJORITY

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The GOP gains two more right-leaning seats in Ohio, and one each in Missouri and North Carolina. But a Utah district judge last month rejected a congressional district map drawn up by the state’s GOP-dominated legislature and instead approved an alternate that will create a Democratic-leaning district ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

Do the math, and Republicans theoretically have a three-seat advantage right now in the redistricting wars.

But that’s far from written in stone.

Democratic opponents of redistricting in Missouri submitted thousands of petition signatures calling for a statewide referendum vote on the state’s new maps, which could put the GOP redistricting in jeopardy.

In Utah, Republicans are hoping an appeal will overturn the court-ordered map.

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It’s far from certain that Democrats will sweep all five newly drawn left-leaning districts in California and that Republicans will do likewise in Texas. And Democrats in Ohio are confident they can still make a play for the two newly drawn districts that tilt further to the right.

What’s next

Republicans are looking to GOP-controlled Florida, where early redistricting moves are underway in Tallahassee. A new map could possibly produce up to five more right-leaning seats. But conservative Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP legislative leaders don’t see eye-to-eye on how to move forward.

Governor Ron DeSantis, seen speaking to reporters during a press conference in Ochopee, Florida, on July 25, 2025, supports congressional redistricting in his state. (Al Diaz/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Democrats have their eyes on Virginia, where the Democratic Party holds majorities in both chambers of the legislature. A new map in the Commonwealth could produce up to four more left-leaning districts.

Other states that might step into the redistricting wars — Democratic-dominated Illinois and Maryland, and two red states with Democratic governors, Kentucky and Kansas.

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The wildcard

Hovering over the redistricting wars is the Supreme Court, which is expected to rule in Louisiana v. Callais, a crucial case which may lead to the overturning of a key provision in the Voting Rights Act.

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If the ruling goes the way of the conservatives on the high court, it could lead to the redrawing of a slew of majority-minority districts across the county, which would greatly favor Republicans.

But it is very much up in the air — when the court will rule, and what it will actually do.

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Dem strategists say Texas requires centrists — but their new Senate frontrunner is anything but

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Dem strategists say Texas requires centrists — but their new Senate frontrunner is anything but

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When it comes to the heavily contested Senate battle in Texas, former Rep. Colin Allred is out, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is in, and Democrats appear divided over whether Crockett’s a political liability in the ruby-red Lone Star State as the party works to flip the crucial seat.

The stakes in the race are extremely high, as it’s one of a handful across the country that will likely determine if Republicans hold their Senate majority in next year’s midterm elections.

Crockett, a two-term lawmaker who represents a Dallas-area district, is a progressive firebrand and rising Democratic Party star with a large social media following who is known as a vocal critic and foil of President Donald Trump. Her launch will likely further rock the Texas ballot box showdown, which, on the Republican side, includes a very combustible battle between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and GOP primary rivals state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

“The Democratic Party’s aspirations to win statewide in a red state like Texas simply don’t exist without a centrist Democrat who can build a winning coalition of ideologically diverse voters,” Liam Kerr, co-founder of the Welcome PAC, a group which advocates for moderate Democratic candidates, argued in a statement to Fox News Digital.

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JASMINE CROCKETT SAYS SHE DOESN’T NEED TO CONVERT TRUMP SUPPORTERS IN HER TEXAS SENATE BID

Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, speaks after announcing her run in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Monday, Dec. 8, 2025, in Dallas. (LM Otero/AP Photo)

Allred, who was making his second straight bid for the Senate after losing last year to conservative Sen. Ted Cruz by nine points, abandoned his bid on Monday and announced he would run next year to return to the House, hours before Crockett launched her campaign.

Crockett will now face off in her party’s primary with state Rep. James Talarico, a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who is also seen as a rising Democrat. The two surging contenders will face off in the March 3 primary.

FIERCE TRUMP CRITIC CROCKETT SHAKES UP HIGH STAKES SENATE RACE

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“I think we’re in a period where we’re looking for new fresh faces to lead the party, and that’s what you’ve got in Texas,” veteran Democratic strategist Joe Caiazzo told Fox News Digital.

And Caiazzo, apparently pointing to Allred, said, “No more retreads. If you ran and lost, it’s time for something new.”

Allred, facing the prospect of battling two younger rivals with formidable fundraising, opted to switch races.

Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred of Texas on Monday suspended his 2026 Senate bid and launched a House campaign. (Reuters/Marco Bello)

“I don’t think he was pushed out of the race. I think he was considering it on his own. But I don’t doubt that he was certainly urged to continue considering it until he finally did it,” a veteran Texas-based Democratic strategist told Fox News Digital.

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The strategist, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, said, “With Crockett getting into the race, she cuts into a lot of Allred’s base. They’re both pulling from the Black Democratic primary vote, and they’re both from the Dallas-Fort Worth area, except she’s in office right now with a huge following and making a lot of headlines. That’s a real threat to his Senate campaign.”

With less than three months until the primary, political pundits list Crockett as the Democratic frontrunner.

SENATE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN CHIEF SAYS CROCKETT CANDIDACY EXPOSES HOW ‘RADICAL’ DEMOCRATS ARE

“I’m done watching the American dream on life support while Trump tries to pull the plug. The gloves have been off, and now I’m jumping into the ring,” Crockett said as she announced her candidacy.

And her launch included a video playing several soundbites of President Donald Trump attacking her.

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Kerr said Crockett as the party’s nominee would be a problem in a state where no Democrat has won a Senate election in nearly four decades — since Sen. Lloyd Bentsen’s re-election in 1988.

“We appreciate Rep. Crockett being so explicit that she’s not trying to win over Trump supporters or persuadable voters, but that approach simply doesn’t work in statewide Texas races. You can’t win competitive or red territory without persuading less partisan, independent, and Republican voters,” he argued.

But Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist and founder of Winning Margins, a communications firm, told Fox News Digital that “Rep. Crockett is running to change the political landscape in Texas.”

“If she wins, she becomes a legend who can run for president. If she loses, she still becomes a political voice for years to come who gets the money to talk and move people.”

Ceraso argued that the Democratic Party is “a reactionary party to President Trump and will be that way for the next few years. Crockett is turning this ‘reaction’ into a platform, and maybe she’ll stick the landing on policies that connect with voters.”

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Asked if Crockett is too far to the left to win statewide, the Texas-based Democratic strategist who asked for anonymity, pointing to the party’s poor performances, said, “It can’t get any worse, right. We keep losing by 10 points. We may as well try something different.”

Republicans are over the moon at the prospect of Crockett as the Democrats’ 2026 Senate nominee.

“I think it says something about who the Democrats are nationally, not just in Texas. What it says is that they’ve been overrun by this radical left agenda that focuses on rhetoric, not reality,” said Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, in an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital on Monday.

But Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin isn’t buying the GOP messaging that all Democrats are far-left radicals.

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“We have conservative Democrats, we have centrist Democrats, we have progressives, and we have leftists. And I’ve always said that you win elections through addition, not subtraction. You win by bringing people into your coalition and growing your party,” Martin told Fox News Digital in a recent interview.

And Martin argued that “unlike the Republicans, who are fairly homogenous, who, you know, basically have one ideology and do not allow for any dissent, the Democratic Party has a lot of different thoughts and ideas which certainly share the same goals, but many different ways to get to those goals.”

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Kyrsten Sinema warns US adversary will program AI with ‘Chinese values’ if America falls behind in tech race

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Kyrsten Sinema warns US adversary will program AI with ‘Chinese values’ if America falls behind in tech race

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Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., warned that the U.S. risks ceding global leadership on artificial intelligence to China, calling the AI race a matter of national security that the nation has “got to win.”

“China is doing everything it can to dominate AI globally, and they will program the AI with Chinese values,” Sinema said on “Fox & Friends” Thursday.

“And President Trump is 100% right. We’ve got to double down and make sure that American values are the values of the world, and that we control this global AI agenda. And that’s why these data centers are so important all across the country.”

US NEEDS TO BREAK CHINA’S SUPPLY CHAIN CHOKEHOLD TO WIN THE TECH RACE

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Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., speaks to reporters in the Ohio Clock Corridor of the U.S. Capitol on Dec. 9, 2025. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)

Sinema argued the U.S. needs to quickly expand domestic data centers and invest in AI infrastructure.

“We have got to win that race,” she said. 

Sinema pushed back on concerns that AI may take American jobs, drawing a comparison between today’s “AI revolution” and the “internet revolution” of the 1990s. 

Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has advocated for greater investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL PRESSES ALLIES TO FREE AI FROM INNOVATION-KILLING REGULATIONS

She maintained the internet has made life more convenient, productive and efficient, despite anxieties that it would “ruin jobs” or “take control.”

“People think, ‘Oh, the robots are gonna take over.’ But what they’re maybe not thinking about is how it’s enhancing their lives already,” she said, pointing to AI-optimized firetruck and school bus routes as early examples of how communities are already benefiting from the new technology.

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Sinema then called out the left for spreading “misinformation” about the impact of AI and data centers within communities and praised the Trump administration’s messaging on the issue.

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“This administration is doing a good job of telling the truth,” she said. 

“That communication is bringing people together who just want efficient, proactive, good lives. Where their kids have a better life than they had,” she added. “So this is, I think, a really important issue that has nothing to do with partisanship.”

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Quiet GOP ‘Astroturf’ campaign convinced liberal firebrand to run for US Senate, source says

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Quiet GOP ‘Astroturf’ campaign convinced liberal firebrand to run for US Senate, source says

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It appears some behind-the-scenes tinkering by the Senate Republican campaign arm helped spur progressive firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett to declare her candidacy this week in Texas’ high-stakes Senate race.

The campaign launch by Crockett, a two-term lawmaker who represents a Dallas-area district and who is known as a vocal critic and foil of President Donald Trump, quickly shifted the political spotlight off of the Republican nomination race, where incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn is involved in a divisive primary with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.

The GOP boosting of a preferred primary opponent comes in a race with extremely high stakes, as it’s one of a handful across the country that will likely determine if Republicans hold their Senate majority in next year’s midterm elections.

As the race in Texas was heating up this past summer, Crockett, a rising Democratic Party star who enjoys a large social media footprint, was not among the list of Democrats widely considered as contenders for the party’s nomination.

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DEMOCRATS RIFT WIDENS: IS JASMINE CROCKETT TOO FAR LEFT FOR TEXAS VOTERS?

Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, speaks after announcing her run in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Monday, Dec. 8, 2025, in Dallas.  (LM Otero/AP Photo)

But Republican strategists viewed Crockett as a more beatable opponent in the 2026 general election than either former Rep. Colin Allred, who until Monday was making his second straight Senate bid, state Rep. James Talarico, another rising party star who launched his campaign in September, and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Rep. Joaquin Castro, who at the time were mulling bids.

So the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) released a poll in July that indicated Crockett with a double-digit lead over the rest of the field of actual and potential Democratic Senate contenders.

The poll quickly grabbed plenty of national attention.

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A source familiar with the NRSC’s process told Fox News Digital that when they saw the results of the survey, they instantly said, “We’ve got to disseminate this far and wide.”

The survey spurred other polls which also indicated Crockett hypothetically in the lead, and the NRSC helped push those results “to really drive that news cycle and that narrative that Jasmine Crockett was surging in Texas.”

The NRSC then reached out to allies to aggressively push the polls in the progressive digital world in what the source described as an “AstroTurf recruitment process.”

FIERCE TRUMP CRITIC CROCKETT SHAKES UP HIGH STAKES SENATE RACE

The effort also included phone calls and text messages to Texas Democrats calling on voters to urge Crockett to enter the race.

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The source called it a “sustained effort that we orchestrated across the ecosystem for several months.”

Crockett, in announcing her candidacy, noted that “I never put myself into any of the polls.”

But she acknowledged that “the more I saw the poll results, I couldn’t ignore the trends, which were clear, both as it relates to the primary as well as the general election.”

Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, seen standing for an interview with Fox News Digital, is chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)

NRSC Chair Sen. Tim Scott, speaking exclusively with Fox News Digital on Monday, said that Crockett’s entry into the Senate race is a key sign of the Democrats’ shift to the left.

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“I think it says something about who the Democrats are nationally, not just in Texas. What it says is that they’ve been overrun by this radical left agenda that focuses on rhetoric, not reality,” the Republican senator from South Carolina claimed.

SENATE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN CHIEF SAYS CROCKETT CANDIDACY EXPOSES HOW ‘RADICAL’ DEMOCRATS ARE

Allred, who was making his second straight bid for the Senate after losing last year to conservative Sen. Ted Cruz by 9 points, abandoned his bid hours before Crockett launched her campaign and announced he would run next year to return to the House.

Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred of Texas on Monday suspended his 2026 Senate bid and launched a House campaign. (Reuters/Marco Bello)

Crockett will now face off in her party’s primary with Talarico, a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who is also seen as a rising Democrat. The two surging contenders with powerful fundraising operations will face off in the March 3 primary.

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In the GOP showdown, Cornyn, the longtime incumbent who hails from the party’s establishment wing, has cut into the one-time large lead by Paxton, a MAGA firebrand, with Hunt in third, according to public opinion polling.

The concern among Republicans is that Paxton, who has been battered over the past decade by a slew of scandals and legal problems and who is now dealing with a messy divorce, would put the seat in play if he were to win the GOP nomination.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas is facing primary challenges from state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt as he seeks re-election in 2026. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty)

But Crockett’s Senate candidacy may change the political equation. While her aggressive push-back against Trump and the GOP should play well with the left, it could deflate her chances of winning next November among Texas’ more conservative electorate.

By dropping out of the race, Allred will likely allow Democrats to avoid a costly and messy primary runoff in the spring, giving the party more time to consolidate around their nominee and raise much-needed campaign cash.

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Meanwhile, with Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt all taking aim at each other in a combustible primary, the GOP nomination appears headed towards a runoff, which would be triggered if no candidate tops 50% in the early March primary.

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Scott, and the NRSC are backing Cornyn.

Asked if he’s concerned about the GOP nomination battle extending to a primary runoff, Scott predicted that “Cornyn will win the primary and Cornyn will win the general election.”

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