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Fox News Poll: Voters' choice has flipped in Arizona since last month

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Fox News Poll: Voters' choice has flipped in Arizona since last month

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Former President Trump is narrowly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest in Arizona, as the Democratic nominee loses ground among women, Hispanics and young voters.

A new Fox News survey of Arizona voters finds Harris trails Trump by 3 percentage points among likely voters in both the two-way matchup (48%-51%) and the expanded ballot that includes third-party candidates (47%-50%, with 3% backing other candidates). While 9 in 10 say their vote choice is locked in, both Harris and Trump have a handful of supporters saying they may change their mind.  

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In August, Harris was up by 1 point in the horse race among registered voters (50%-49%), while she’s down by 2 points today (48%-50%). All of these matchups are within the margin of error. 

The 3-point shift among registered voters is mainly due to movement among young voters, women and Hispanics.  

Since August, Harris’ 18-point lead among Hispanics has narrowed to 11 points and her 14-point edge among women is down to 8 points. What was a 13-point advantage for Harris among voters under age 30 is now a 12-point deficit, a 25-point shift. These changes are notable, even given that estimates among subgroups are more volatile.

HARRIS-TRUMP SHOWDOWN: THE EDGE IS CLEAR ON THIS KEY ISSUE

Trump tops Harris among Whites without a college degree, rural voters and independents. He has a narrow edge among suburbanites because more suburban men back him than suburban women favor Harris. And, by just a touch, more of his 2020 voters stick with him than Biden’s 2020 voters back Harris.

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Harris has strong support among those ages 65 and over, voters with a college degree and urban voters, and still receives majority backing among women and Hispanics. Plus, 1 in 4 non-MAGA Republicans favors Harris over Trump.  

By a 51%-46% margin, Trump leads among new voters, defined as those who haven’t voted in the four most recent elections.  

“Arizona is looking tougher for Harris than a month ago,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “If young voters and Hispanics don’t make a U-turn, it’s hard to see how she walks away with a win.”

More Arizona voters trust Trump than Harris to handle immigration (by 15 points) and the economy (+8). Those are significant leads, and they match where things stood last month — but compared to his June leads over President Biden, Trump’s advantage is down 5 points on immigration and down 7 points on the economy.  

Trump is also seen as being better at making the country safe by 7 points.  

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There’s little difference between the candidates on who will better protect democracy (Harris +3), help the middle class (Harris +2), fight for people like you (Harris +2), and bring needed change (Trump +1). 

Harris leads Trump by 15 points on handling abortion, down from her 22-point lead last month. 

More than 7 in 10 Arizona voters favor the state’s proposed constitutional amendment establishing the right to an abortion, including more than two-thirds of independents and half of Republicans. 

The two candidates are about equal in personal favorable ratings. Harris gets net negative marks by 3 points (48% favorable, 51% unfavorable), while Trump’s are negative by 5 points (47%-52%). For the vice-presidential candidates, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s ratings are negative by just 1 point (42%-43%) with 15% unable to rate him. Ohio Sen. JD Vance’s favorable rating is underwater by 7 points (40%-47%) and 12% have no opinion.  

Trump won Arizona in 2016 by about 3.5 percentage points, while Biden’s 2020 victory was by less than half a percentage point.

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In the Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego tops Republican Kari Lake by more than 10 percentage points: 55%-42% among likely voters and 56%-42% among registered voters. Gallego is preferred across most demographic groups, but women voters are a big part of what gives him the advantage as they back him over Lake by a 23-point margin. He also receives the support of 6 in 10 independents and nearly 2 in 10 Republicans.

FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS CITE HIGH PRICES AS BIGGEST MOTIVATOR TO VOTE

Some 15% of Gallego supporters split their ticket and back Trump in the presidential race. Some of the biggest ticket splitting is among independents, who are 16 points more likely to back Gallego than Harris, and Republicans (10 points more for Gallego). Among those voters favoring Lake, only 3% go for Harris.

Poll-pourri

Early voters are more likely to back Harris by 11 points, while Trump is favored by 30 points among the smaller group of Election Day voters.

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Biden’s personal favorability is negative by 21 points, 39% favorable vs. 60% unfavorable. That’s a big decline from four years ago when his ratings were positive by 2 points (June 2020).  

 

Thirty percent rate the U.S. economy positively, up from 25% who said the same four years ago.          

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Conducted Sept. 20-24, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,021 Arizona registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (147) and cellphones (616) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (258). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points ,and for the subsample of 764 likely voters it is ±3.5 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance and marital status.

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Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.

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Arizona governor vetoes Charlie Kirk memorial license plate, sparking GOP outrage: ‘This bill falls short’

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Arizona governor vetoes Charlie Kirk memorial license plate, sparking GOP outrage: ‘This bill falls short’

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Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is facing fierce backlash after vetoing a bill that would have created a specialty license plate honoring slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, a move Republicans are blasting as a stunning act of partisanship after his assassination.

Kirk, who was assassinated while speaking at a Sept. 10 Turning Point USA event at Utah Valley University, lived in Arizona with his wife, Erika, and two children. 

The proposed specialty plate, referred to as the “Charlie Kirk memorial” plate or the “Conservative grassroots network special plate,” featured a photo of the late Kirk and the TPUSA logo in front of an American flag background.

Below the license plate number were the words “FOR CHARLIE.”

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A custom Arizona license plate, featuring a Turning Point USA and Charlie Kirk design, shared by state Sen. Jake Hoffman. (Senator Jake Hoffman via X)

STATE DEPARTMENT REVOKES SIX VISAS OVER OFFENSIVE CHARLIE KIRK ASSASSINATION COMMENTS

Of the $25 fee required for the plate, $17 would be an annual donation deposited into the Conservative Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund, according to the legislation.

While the recipient of the Grassroots Network Special Plate Fund was not explicitly designated as TPUSA in the bill, it noted the director of the fund would allocate revenue annually to a nonprofit organization, founded in 2012, that focuses on restoring traditional values, maintaining a grassroots activist network on high school and college campuses in Arizona, and assisting college students with voter registration and absentee ballots.

People gather at a memorial to mourn Turning Point USA Founder Charlie Kirk outside Turning Point USA headquarters Sept. 12, 2025, in Phoenix.  (Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images)

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TPUSA, founded by Kirk in 2012, is well known for its grassroots activist networks on high school and college campuses. It is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

The $25 fee and annual $17 donation are consistent with the fees for the other 109 nonprofit license plates offered by the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT).

‘WE ARE NOT AFRAID’: ERIKA KIRK VOWS TPUSA WILL CONTINUE CAMPUS DEBATES NATIONWIDE

The state Senate passed the bill, 16-2, with the House of Representatives voting 31-23 in favor prior to Hobbs’ veto.

Specialty plates in Arizona are authorized by the legislature and sent to the governor to be signed into law. They have been offered since 1989.

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In a letter explaining the veto, Hobbs cited concerns with the bill “bring[ing] people together,” claiming it would “insert politics into a function of government that should remain nonpartisan.”

Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs is facing fierce backlash after vetoing a bill that would have created a specialty license plate honoring slain Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk. (Rebecca Noble/Getty Images)

ERIKA KIRK BATTLES FOR CAMERAS IN COURTROOM WHILE EXPANDING TPUSA CHAPTERS IN NEW STATE PARTNERSHIP

“Charlie Kirk’s assassination is tragic and a horrifying act of violence,” Hobbs wrote. “In America, we resolve our political differences at the ballot box. No matter who it targets, political violence puts us all in harm’s way and damages our sacred democratic institutions.

“I will continue working toward solutions that bring people together, but this bill falls short of that standard.”

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Specialty license plates with political interests already approved by the state include the “Choose Life” Plate, which benefits the Arizona Life Coalition and its mission to promote anti-abortion advocacy and education; the “In God We Trust” Plate, which benefits conservative Christian legal advocacy group Alliance Defending Freedom; and the Arizona Realtors’ “Homes for All” Plate, which funds affordable housing projects.

Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, speaks during the Turning Point Action conference in 2023 in West Palm Beach, Fla. (Lynne Sladky/AP Photo)

DEMOCRAT JOHN FETTERMAN DECRIES ‘DEHUMANIZING’ ATTACK AGAINST CHARLIE KIRK’S WIDOW ERIKA

Another approved plate, “Alice Cooper’s Solid Rock Plate,” which benefits Solid Rock Teen Centers, features a portrait of the legendary musician, who has made political comments about social issues including gender identity.

Republican state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who sponsored the bill, posted a fiery statement on social media after the governor’s action, claiming her “grotesque partisanship knows no bounds.” 

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“Even in the wake of a global civil rights leader — an Arizona resident and her own constituent — being assassinated in broad daylight for his defense of the First Amendment, Hobbs couldn’t find the human decency to put her far-Left extremism aside simply to allow those how wish to honor him to do so,” Hoffman wrote. “Katie Hobbs will forever be known as a stain on the pages of Arizona’s story.”

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On Saturday, TPUSA COO Tyler Bowyer shared an X post that said, “Deport Katie Hobbs.”

TPUSA, Bowyer and Hobbs’ office did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.

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Air Force veteran warns ‘cartels don’t collapse — they fracture’ after notorious drug lord killed

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Air Force veteran warns ‘cartels don’t collapse — they fracture’ after notorious drug lord killed

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Nearly two weeks after Mexican forces killed notorious cartel boss Ruben “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, questions remain about how the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) will respond and whether the blow will meaningfully disrupt the flow of fentanyl into the United States.

Carlos De La Cruz, a 20-year U.S. Air Force veteran who deployed after 9/11 and later served along the southern border, told Fox News the cartel leader’s death marked a major victory, but warned Americans should not mistake it for the end of the fight.

“When I say that this is a significant win, I mean it,” De La Cruz said. “El Mencho ran one of the most violent cartels on the planet.”

Oseguera, who rose to prominence in the post–El Chapo era, oversaw CJNG’s aggressive expansion across Mexico and into key trafficking corridors feeding U.S. drug markets. Under his leadership, the cartel became a central architect of fentanyl and methamphetamine trafficking and drew a $15 million U.S. reward for information leading to his capture.

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NARCOTICS EXPERT REVEALS SLAIN DRUG KINGPIN EL MENCHO’S DEADLY IMPACT ON AMERICANS

Smoke rises from burning vehicles after a military operation that a government source said killed Mexican drug lord Nemesio Oseguera, known as “El Mencho,” in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. (Screen grab obtained from a social media video. @morelifediares via Instagram/YouTube via Reuters)

But De La Cruz cautioned that removing a cartel kingpin does not dismantle the organization.

“Cartels don’t collapse when you just cut the head off — they fracture,” he said. “And part of that fracture is going to see a lot of short-term violence while all these factions fight over territory.”

Following Oseguera’s killing on Feb. 22, the U.S. State Department issued travel alerts in multiple Mexican states, citing road blockages and criminal activity tied to security operations, underscoring concerns about instability in the aftermath.

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Drawing on his military background studying enemy command structures, De La Cruz described the cartel fight as a long-term campaign requiring sustained pressure.

A mughsot of Ruben “Nemesio” Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” beside graffiti depicting the letters of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, covering the facade of an abandoned home in El Limoncito, in the Michoacan state of Mexico. (Eduardo Verdugo/AP Images; Drug Enforcement Administration)

“You don’t win a war with just one airstrike,” he said. “The goal is dismantling the networks and going after their financing.”

De La Cruz, who is running for Congress and is the brother of Texas Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, argued that CJNG’s Foreign Terrorist Organization designation gives U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies expanded tools to target cartel infrastructure and financial pipelines.

KAROLINE LEAVITT WARNS CARTELS TO ‘NOT LAY A FINGER’ ON AMERICANS OR PAY ‘SEVERE CONSEQUENCES’

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A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026, after the cartel leader’s death. (Armando Solis/AP Photo)

But he stressed that the fentanyl crisis should be viewed as a domestic security emergency, not a distant foreign problem.

“For decades, they were using their territories as launching pads to pump chemical weapons into America — because that’s exactly what fentanyl is,” he said.

De La Cruz, who said he worked side by side with Customs agents while deployed to the border, warned that cartel networks are highly adaptive and that any gains could be temporary without sustained follow-through.

SEN MULLIN URGES SPRING BREAKERS TO CANCEL TRIPS TO MEXICO AMID COUNTRY’S VIOLENCE: ‘NO ONE SHOULD BE GOING’

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Smoke rises after violence hit Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. (Courtesy of Scott Posilkin)

“These networks, they’re going to adjust. They’re going to adapt and they’re going to adapt quickly,” he said. “We have to continue to go after the money launderers, especially on our side of the border, because that’s the full fight.”

While Oseguera’s death removes one of the most dominant figures in Mexico’s criminal underworld, De La Cruz said the mission is personal.

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“I took an oath to defend this country,” he said. “And I intend to stand by that oath.”

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Fox News Digital’s Greg Wehner contributed to this report. 

Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send story tips to stepheny.price@fox.com.

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Search for Nancy Guthrie enters 5th week, cadaver dogs on hold

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Search for Nancy Guthrie enters 5th week, cadaver dogs on hold

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TUCSON, Ariz. — More than five weeks after the suspected abduction of Nancy Guthrie — the 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie — Arizona authorities say cadaver dogs used earlier in the investigation are not currently being deployed as the search continues.

The elder Guthrie is believed to have been kidnapped from her home in the Catalina Foothills in northern Tucson around 2:30 a.m. on Feb. 1.

While no suspects have been publicly identified, and she has not been found, cadaver dogs had been deployed earlier in the case, according to Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos. They have not been visible in weeks.

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A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Office remains outside of Nancy Guthrie’s home, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ty ONeil; Nathan Congleton/NBC via Getty Images)

“They are available if needed in the future,” he told Fox News Digital.

There are a number of reasons not to be using cadaver dogs at this stage in the investigation, according to Betsy Brantner Smith, a retired police sergeant and spokeswoman for the National Police Association.

NANCY GUTHRIE’S NEIGHBORS FLAG CAMERA GLITCHING, EXPERTS EXPLAIN WI-FI JAMMING

Savannah Guthrie visits the Today show at Rockefeller Plaza in New York on Thursday, March 5, 2026. (Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)

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One would be if there’s credible information that Guthrie is still alive.

“Anything is possible,” Nanos told Fox News Digital last week, adding that he would not discuss specific leads or evidence in the case.

DNA IS STILL PENDING AS VOLUNTEERS FIND ANOTHER GLOVE IN THE SEARCH FOR NANCY GUTHRIE

Brantner Smith, who is not involved in the case, said departments may hold back K-9 resources for several reasons. Those could be that authorities don’t have a good idea of where to search, they think she might be concealed in a place where dogs would have a hard time detecting her, or they believe she’s been taken to Mexico, according to Brantner Smith.

Law enforcement agents walk around the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

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“I do believe that the sheriff’s department has much more information that they are not releasing to the public,” she told Fox News Digital. “And I’m not sure at this point why that would be, unless they have a solid suspect and don’t want to tip them off.”

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Most departments, including the Pima County Sheriff’s, don’t have their own cadaver dogs and borrow them from state and federal authorities or neighboring jurisdictions.

An investigator looks inside a culvert in the neighborhood where Annie Guthrie, whose mother Nancy Guthrie has been missing for more than a week, lives just outside Tucson, Ariz., on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

In Guthrie’s case, the sheriff’s department sought K-9 assistance from the local Border Patrol office earlier in the investigation.

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PCSD deferred further comment on the K-9s to Customs and Border Protection, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

A member of the Pima County Sheriff’s Office walks around Nancy Guthrie’s home on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026 in Tucson, Ariz. (Ty ONeil/AP Photo)

The biggest lead so far has been Nest camera video showing a masked intruder on Guthrie’s doorstep the morning of her abduction.

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He is described as about 5 feet, 9 inches to 5 feet, 10 inches tall and of medium build.

Nancy Guthrie, 84, has been missing from her Arizona home since Jan. 31, 2026. (Don Arnold/WireImage/Getty Images)

He was wearing a black Ozark Trail backpack.

Authorities have said they won’t consider the case cold until they run out of viable leads to follow up on — and tens of thousands have come in so far.

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Savannah Guthrie has asked anyone with information to dial 1-800-CALL-FBI.

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There’s a combined reward of more than $1.2 million for information that leads to her mother’s recovery.



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