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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high

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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high

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America’s ranchers are facing their smallest cattle herd in 70 years.

Years of punishing drought, rising costs and an aging ranching workforce have thinned herds across the country. Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding will take years and beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.

“The biggest thing has been drought,” said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University.

BEEF PRICES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS — BUT AMERICANS AREN’T CUTTING BACK

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He said years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it hard to rebuild. 

“It’s not going to be a quick fix, you’re not going to solve it overnight,” Belasco told Fox News Digital. 

Ranchers have sold off many of their cattle in order to cope with rising prices. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)

Belasco said the aftereffects of years of drought are still being felt and until ranchers can rebuild their herds, consumers will keep paying the price.

“The primary reason you see prices so high is because we haven’t seen any kind of inventory rebuilding,” he said. “Until you see that rebuild, you probably won’t see prices coming back down again.”

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That slow rebuilding is a challenge for the cattle industry, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.

“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” Peel said. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”

Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said there’s no quick way to ease pressure on beef prices, since it takes roughly two years to bring animals to market and several years to rebuild herds.

TRUMP’S BEEF IMPORT PLAN IGNORES KEY ISSUE SQUEEZING AMERICAN CATTLE RANCHERS

Even as ranchers wait for herds to recover, parched conditions are working against them, turning pastures to dust and feed into a luxury. 

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Research from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each step up in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decrease in farm income.

To cope, many ranchers are shrinking their herds. A 2022 Farm Bureau survey found that about two in three ranchers have sold animals off, leaving them with roughly one-third fewer cattle than before.

Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding the cattle inventory will take years. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post/Getty Images)

Few people see the challenges of ranching more clearly than Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company, whose pastures stretch along the soft edge of the Texas Hill Country.

“I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage. My message to consumers is simple, folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds,” Bolton told Fox News Digital.

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Bolton said the region, known for its red dirt and family-run ranches, has gone nearly three months without rain. While showers were finally arriving, he noted that the cattle industry has weathered one setback after another, from market turmoil to extreme conditions, over the past five years.

The growing strain highlights how persistent drought is reshaping the ranching industry and tightening the nation’s livestock supply.

That pressure is being felt not just on ranches but also at the grocery store.

According to USDA data, the average retail price of beef rose from about $8.51 a pound in August 2024 to $9.85 a pound a year later, a gain of roughly 16%. 

The “5-market steer price” represents what ranchers earn for live cattle before they’re processed into meat. The “farm-to-retail” spread reflects everything that happens after that – the costs and profits tied to slaughtering, processing, packaging, shipping and selling beef in stores.

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Much of that work — and the profits it generates — are concentrated among the industry’s “big four” meatpackers: Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill and National Beef.

Together, these data points show that while ranchers are earning slightly more for their cattle than they were a few years ago, the biggest price increases are happening well after the animals leave the pasture.

Despite the markups between the ranch and the grocery store, demand hasn’t wavered. Americans are still buying beef more than ever.

Americans are still buying beef even as prices climb to nearly $10 a pound. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

Beef remains the dominant player in the fresh-meat aisle, with $44.3 billion in sales over the past year, a 12% increase that outpaced chicken, pork and turkey, according to Beef Research, a contractor to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

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Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, told Fox News Digital that strong consumer demand will continue to drive beef prices higher.

“There’s nothing that forces me or you or anybody else when we go into the grocery store to pay more for beef. People are choosing to,” he said. “The consumer desire for beef is strong and, regardless of the supply-side situation, that has the effect of pulling prices up.”

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Republican senators hit border, touting tougher security and tax cuts, in 2026 kickoff

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Republican senators hit border, touting tougher security and tax cuts, in 2026 kickoff

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Aiming to not only hold but expand their 53-47 majority in November’s midterm elections, top Senate Republicans are showcasing the plummeting rates of border crossings during a stop Friday at the nation’s southern border with Mexico.

And the group, led by Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is also highlighting how President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers are “putting more money in Americans’ pockets.”

The stop at the border, hosted by One Nation, a nonprofit outside group closely aligned with Thune, is seen as an unofficial kickoff by Senate Republicans ahead of the midterms to tout the sweeping “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act,” Trump’s signature domestic achievement last year that was passed nearly entirely along party lines in the GOP controlled Congress.

At the event at the border, which was a regular stop for Republicans amid the surge in border crossings during then-President Joe Biden’s administration, the GOP senators are teaming up with members of the National Border Patrol Council. And they are highlighting how the passage of the domestic policy measure “secured transformational border security funding,” according to One Nation.

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THUNE PREVIEWS SENATE REPUBLICANS’ MIDTERM MESSAGE 

Senate Majority Leader John Thune and fellow Senate Republicans speak to reporters at an event at the nation’s southern border with Mexico, on Jan. 9, 2026. (One Nation)

“This is a remarkable, remarkable difference in just a year,” Thune said at the event. “It’s been an incredible year of progress when it comes to the southern border and the American people are experiencing the benefit of that in the form of having safer streets and safer communities and safer neighborhoods.”

But with Democrats enjoying decisive victories and overperformances in the 2025 elections and in a slew of special elections and other ballot box showdowns last year, which were fueled by their laser focus on affordability amid persistent inflation, the Republican senators are also using Friday’s trip to spotlight the tax cut and energy policy provisions in the bill, which they rebranded as the “Working Families Tax Cut.”

“The Working Families Tax Cut will make buying groceries more affordable for working Americans this year,” the Senate Republicans touted on social media on the eve of the border stop. “Every Democrat voted against it.”

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DOUBLING DOWN: TOP HOUSE DEMOCRAT SAYS FOCUS ON HIGH PRICES ‘ABSOLUTELY GOING TO CONTINUE’

And they also highlighted that “Senate Republicans have worked closely with President Trump to lower energy prices and make life more affordable — and the results speak for themselves.”

Thune, at the border, pointed to the tax cut provisions in the GOP measure, including no tax on tips and overtime and reduced rates for seniors on Social Security, along with “the jobs that are going to be created by the pro-growth policies that we put in place….are going to lead us to a place where the American people are seeing their incomes go up.”

But Democrats see the cost of living as their winning issue heading into the midterms.

“If the Republican agenda actually made life more affordable for working Americans, then they wouldn’t be desperately flailing as families struggle to afford groceries, health care, and housing,” Lauren French, communications director at Senate Majority PAC, the top Senate Democrat-aligned outside group, told Fox News Digital. “Instead of focusing on working people, Trump and Senate Republicans are focused on bringing chaos and instability into our communities.”

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Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., holds a political and policy event Friday at the nation’s southern border with Mexico. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Joining Thune, the longtime senator from South Dakota, at the border is Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, number two in Senate Republican leadership.

There are also Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, who faces a bruising GOP primary showdown in March against challengers Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt; and Republican Sens. Jon Husted of Ohio and Ashley Moody of Florida, who were appointed last year and will face voters this November.

HEALTHCARE, ECONOMY AND THE ‘ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL’: WELCOME TO THE MIDTERMS

GOP Sens. Pete Ricketts of Nebraska and Mike Rounds of South Dakota, who are up for re-election this year, are also on the trip, as are former Rep. Mike Rogers and former Republican National Committee chair Mike Whatley, the GOP Senate candidates in battlegrounds Michigan and North Carolina who are backed by Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

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“We’re seeing signs already that the economy is starting to tick up and is starting to take hold as the President’s policies are getting in place,” Whatley argued last month in a Fox News Digital interview. “We need to make sure that we have the trade policies, the tax policies, the regulatory policies from this administration that are going to help our small businesses, our manufacturers and our farmers across North Carolina.”

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But Democrats are energized as the midterm year begins, as they continue to keep their focus on the issue of affordability.

“Donald Trump has lost the economy, is losing his mind, and is going to lose the midterms,” Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin claimed in a recent statement.

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Body found during search for missing Texas teen Camila Mendoza Olmos as another teen girl disappears

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Body found during search for missing Texas teen Camila Mendoza Olmos as another teen girl disappears

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A body was found Tuesday evening as authorities in Bexar County, Texas, grapple with a series of disappearances involving teen girls who all went missing within a week.

The body was found during the search for 19-year-old Camila Olmos, though police said it is too early to determine whether the remains belong to her.

Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar said during a news conference that investigators had “just recently found a body in a field” around 4:40 to 4:45 p.m., adding that the medical examiner will determine both the identity of the body and the cause and manner of death.

The body was found by a joint team of sheriff’s deputies and FBI agents in an area of tall grass near a landscaping business, a few hundred yards from Olmos’ home, according to Salazar.

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MISSING CAMILA MENDOZ OLMOS: DASHCAM CAPTURES LAST SIGHTING OF TEXAS TEEN WHO VANISHED CHRISTMAS EVE

Camila Olmos was reported missing on Christmas Eve. (Bexar County Sheriff)

A firearm was recovered near the body, which authorities said had been an item of interest during the search.

Salazar said investigators do not currently suspect murder and noted there were indicators consistent with possible self-harm, though he stressed it is too early to draw conclusions while the scene is still being processed.

Olmos was last seen leaving her home in far northwest Bexar County around 7 a.m. on Dec. 24, authorities said. Her case came as two other girls were reported missing in the area. Fourteen-year-old Sofia Gabriela Peters-Cobos has since been found safe, while 17-year-old Angelique Johnson remains missing, according to police.

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Law enforcement has said there is no confirmed connection between the cases.

MISSING CAMILA MENDOZ OLMOS: DASHCAM CAPTURES LAST SIGHTING OF TEXAS TEEN WHO VANISHED CHRISTMAS EVE

Angelique Johnson, from San Antonio, Texas, was reported missing. (Bexar County Sheriff’s Office)

Texas Department of Public Safety said the Clear Alert for Olmos has been discontinued, though authorities urged anyone with information related to the cases or the whereabouts of Angelique Johnson to contact the Bexar County Sheriff’s Office.

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The Bexar County Sheriff’s Office and the San Antonio Police Department did not respond immediately to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman and Michael Ruiz contributed to this report.

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Former GOP Sen Jon Kyl announces dementia diagnosis, steps away from public life

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Former GOP Sen Jon Kyl announces dementia diagnosis, steps away from public life

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Former Republican Sen. Jon Kyl announced on Tuesday he is withdrawing from public life after being diagnosed with dementia.

Kyl, 83, became one of Arizona’s most prominent Republicans during a career that spanned nearly three decades across both chambers of Congress, including a stint as Senate minority whip.

“I was blessed to represent the people of Arizona in Congress and to have numerous other opportunities to contribute to the political and civic life of our nation and state,” Kyl said in a statement. “However, the time has come for me to withdraw from public life. I have been diagnosed with a neurological disease manifesting as dementia.”

Kyl represented Arizona’s 4th Congressional District in the House from 1987 to 1995 before serving in the U.S. Senate from 1995 to 2013.

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DAVID MARCUS: BEN SASSE IS DYING, BUT HIS LETTER TO AMERICA WILL LIVE FOREVER

Former Arizona Republican Senator Jon Kyl announced on Tuesday he is withdrawing from public life after being diagnosed with dementia. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

After leaving the Senate, Kyl joined the lobbying firm Covington and Burling, before being appointed in 2018 by then-Gov. Doug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of former Sen. John McCain.

Kyl held the seat for several months in the Senate before rejoining the firm in 2019, where he helped guide the confirmation of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

The longtime Arizona lawmaker described himself as “a very fortunate man” despite the diagnosis.

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FORMER COLORADO SEN. BEN NIGHTHORSE CAMPBELL DEAD AT 92

Former Arizona Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, left, and Bruce Babbitt, right, former Arizona Republican governor and secretary of the Interior, wave to the crowd as they are recognized during Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey’s state of the state address Monday, Jan. 14, 2019, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

“My family and I now head down a path filled with moments of joy and increasing difficulties,” he stated. “I am grateful beyond expression for their love and support, in these coming days as in all the days of my life.”

Kyl moved to Arizona as an 18-year-old freshman to attend the University of Arizona, where he met his wife.

The university said Kyl devoted more than two decades to public service, leaving a lasting impact on water policy, national defense and intelligence.

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“His leadership, integrity, and commitment to service reflect the highest ideals of public life,” the university said in a statement.

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Former Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., announced he is withdrawing from public life after being diagnosed with dementia. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., said Kyl gave “decades of his life” serving Arizona, adding that he’s grateful for the former GOP senator’s “commitment to our state and country.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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