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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high

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America’s smallest cattle herd in 70 years means rebuilding will take years and beef prices could stay high

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America’s ranchers are facing their smallest cattle herd in 70 years.

Years of punishing drought, rising costs and an aging ranching workforce have thinned herds across the country. Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding will take years and beef prices aren’t likely to ease anytime soon.

“The biggest thing has been drought,” said Eric Belasco, head of the agricultural economics department at Montana State University.

BEEF PRICES ARE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS — BUT AMERICANS AREN’T CUTTING BACK

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He said years of dry weather have wiped out grasslands across the West and Plains, leaving ranchers without enough feed or water to sustain their herds. Many have been forced to sell cattle early, even the cows needed to produce the next generation of calves, making it hard to rebuild. 

“It’s not going to be a quick fix, you’re not going to solve it overnight,” Belasco told Fox News Digital. 

Ranchers have sold off many of their cattle in order to cope with rising prices. (Melissa Phillip/Houston Chronicle/Getty Images)

Belasco said the aftereffects of years of drought are still being felt and until ranchers can rebuild their herds, consumers will keep paying the price.

“The primary reason you see prices so high is because we haven’t seen any kind of inventory rebuilding,” he said. “Until you see that rebuild, you probably won’t see prices coming back down again.”

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That slow rebuilding is a challenge for the cattle industry, according to Derrell Peel, a professor of agricultural economics at Oklahoma State University.

“The fact of the matter is there’s really nothing anybody can do to change this very quickly,” Peel said. “We’re in a tight supply situation that took several years to develop, and it’ll take several years to get out of it.”

Peel, who specializes in livestock marketing, said there’s no quick way to ease pressure on beef prices, since it takes roughly two years to bring animals to market and several years to rebuild herds.

TRUMP’S BEEF IMPORT PLAN IGNORES KEY ISSUE SQUEEZING AMERICAN CATTLE RANCHERS

Even as ranchers wait for herds to recover, parched conditions are working against them, turning pastures to dust and feed into a luxury. 

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Research from the Kansas City Federal Reserve found that with each step up in drought severity, cattle-producing regions see about a 12% drop in hay production, a 5% rise in hay prices, a 1% reduction in herd size and a 4% decrease in farm income.

To cope, many ranchers are shrinking their herds. A 2022 Farm Bureau survey found that about two in three ranchers have sold animals off, leaving them with roughly one-third fewer cattle than before.

Ranchers and agricultural economists alike say rebuilding the cattle inventory will take years. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post/Getty Images)

Few people see the challenges of ranching more clearly than Cole Bolton, owner of K&C Cattle Company, whose pastures stretch along the soft edge of the Texas Hill Country.

“I think it’s going to take a while to fix this crisis that we’re in with the cattle shortage. My message to consumers is simple, folks, be patient. We’ve got to build back our herds,” Bolton told Fox News Digital.

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Bolton said the region, known for its red dirt and family-run ranches, has gone nearly three months without rain. While showers were finally arriving, he noted that the cattle industry has weathered one setback after another, from market turmoil to extreme conditions, over the past five years.

The growing strain highlights how persistent drought is reshaping the ranching industry and tightening the nation’s livestock supply.

That pressure is being felt not just on ranches but also at the grocery store.

According to USDA data, the average retail price of beef rose from about $8.51 a pound in August 2024 to $9.85 a pound a year later, a gain of roughly 16%. 

The “5-market steer price” represents what ranchers earn for live cattle before they’re processed into meat. The “farm-to-retail” spread reflects everything that happens after that – the costs and profits tied to slaughtering, processing, packaging, shipping and selling beef in stores.

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Much of that work — and the profits it generates — are concentrated among the industry’s “big four” meatpackers: Tyson Foods, JBS, Cargill and National Beef.

Together, these data points show that while ranchers are earning slightly more for their cattle than they were a few years ago, the biggest price increases are happening well after the animals leave the pasture.

Despite the markups between the ranch and the grocery store, demand hasn’t wavered. Americans are still buying beef more than ever.

Americans are still buying beef even as prices climb to nearly $10 a pound. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images)

Beef remains the dominant player in the fresh-meat aisle, with $44.3 billion in sales over the past year, a 12% increase that outpaced chicken, pork and turkey, according to Beef Research, a contractor to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association.

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Glynn Tonsor, a professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, told Fox News Digital that strong consumer demand will continue to drive beef prices higher.

“There’s nothing that forces me or you or anybody else when we go into the grocery store to pay more for beef. People are choosing to,” he said. “The consumer desire for beef is strong and, regardless of the supply-side situation, that has the effect of pulling prices up.”

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Jasmine Crockett campaign reportedly kicked Atlantic writer out of rally for being a ‘top-notch hater’

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Jasmine Crockett campaign reportedly kicked Atlantic writer out of rally for being a ‘top-notch hater’

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Atlantic staff writer Elaine Godfrey reported that she was “thrown out” of a rally for Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, for being a “top-notch hater” according to Crockett’s team.

“Right before armed guards escorted me from the rally and left me on the edge of a Texas-county road, I was informed that I was no longer welcome at an event that I had already attended,” Godfrey wrote on Thursday.

She described having spent an hour at the Lubbock rally for Crockett’s Senate campaign before being approached by a woman with a badge as soon as she joined other reporters.

Elaine Godfrey claimed Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s team removed her from a rally in Texas earlier this week. (Dustin Franz/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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“‘Are you Elaine?’ she asked. I recognized her from the entrance of the event, where I had identified myself as she’d waved me into the building’s press area. Yes, I answered. ‘Her team has asked you to leave,’ she said. When I asked why, the staffer looked at her phone and read dutifully: ‘They just said, “Elaine from Atlantic, White girl with a hat and notepad. She’s interviewing people in the crowd. She’s a top-notch hater and will spin. She needs to leave,”’” Godfrey wrote.

Godfrey was the staff writer behind a profile piece for Crockett in July that reportedly received backlash from the Texas representative after including comments from fellow House Democrats “without telling her first.”

“She was, she told me, ‘shutting down the profile and revoking all permissions,’” Godfrey wrote at the time.

BOEBERT JOKES ABOUT ENDORSING CROCKETT IN TEXAS’ SENATE RACE TO GIVE HER DEMOCRATIC RIVAL A BOOST

Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, is running in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. (LM Otero/AP Photo)

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The piece was still published and included comments from other Democratic figures.

According to Godfrey, Crockett said that there was “no evidence” that a reporter was removed from her rally but claimed that there was a “specific journalist” who has a “history of being less than truthful” and had previously lost a lawsuit against Crockett.

“Perhaps she was thinking of someone else, because that’s not something that has ever happened to me,” Godfrey wrote.

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Godfrey added that her removal from the rally wasn’t a surprise considering Crockett’s firebrand-style of politics, though she expressed concern over how she was handled.

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Rep. Jasmine Crockett allegedly tried to shut down an article from Elaine Godfrey after she spoke to other House Democrats. (Bob Daemmrich/The Texas Tribune/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“As security guards began to materialize around me, I wondered to myself what distinguished a top-notch hater from a middling one. I agreed to leave, and four guards, including at least one who was armed, escorted me out of the building, through the parking lot, and right to the edge of the nearby highway, where they waited as I ordered a car,” Godfrey wrote.

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Fox News Digital reached out to Crockett’s office and campaign for comment.

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FAA restricts Texas airspace after Pentagon reportedly strikes down Customs and Border Protection drone

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FAA restricts Texas airspace after Pentagon reportedly strikes down Customs and Border Protection drone

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The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) restricted flights Thursday near Fort Hancock, Texas, after a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) drone was reportedly shot down by a laser sytem operated by the Pentagon.

While government agencies have not identified who the drone belonged to, top Democrats on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee released a joint statement Thursday evening claiming the drone belonged to CBP.

U.S. Reps. Rick Larsen, Bennie Thompson and Andre Carson said their “heads are exploding over the news” that a CBP drone was shot down by the Pentagon with “a high risk counter-unmanned aircraft system.”

The legislators added that this incident is “the result of [the White House’s] incompetence” after a “short-sighted” decision to “sidestep a bipartisan, tri-committee bill to appropriately train C-UAS operators and address the lack of coordination between the Pentagon, DHS and the FAA.”

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The FAA expanded a temporary flight restriction near Fort Hancock, Texas, after lawmakers said a Pentagon-operated counter-drone system may have shot down a U.S. government drone. (iStock)

In a joint statement provided to Fox News Digital, the Department of War, CBP and the FAA said the DOW used counter-unmanned aircraft system to respond to a “seemingly threatening unmanned aerial system operating within military airspace.”

The departments said the engagement took place “far away from populated areas and there were no commercial aircraft in the vicinity,” adding they “will continue to work on increased cooperation and communication to prevent such incidents in the future.”

The departments said they are “working together in an unprecedented fashion to mitigate drone threats by Mexican cartels and foreign terrorist organizations at the U.S.-Mexico border.”

“The bottom line is the Trump Administration is doing more to secure the border and crack down on cartels than any administration in history,” the statement added.

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Congressional aides told Reuters that the Pentagon reportedly used the high-energy laser system to accidentally shoot down the CBP drone near the Mexican border, an area that frequently sees incursions from drones believed to be operated by Mexican drug cartels.

The FAA told Fox News Digital that a temporary flight restriction (TFR) was “already in place” around the Fort Hancock area and that the TFR “has been expanded to include a greater radius to ensure safety.” 

The restriction does not impact commercial flights, the agency said.

The FAA said in a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) that airspace around Fort Hancock was temporarily restricted for “special security reasons.”

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The restriction comes a couple of weeks after the FAA grounded flights to and from El Paso International Airport for 10 days before lifting the order roughly eight hours later.

Drones operated by Mexican drug cartels breached American airspace earlier this month near El Paso International Airport in Texas, leading the FAA to temporarily close the airport. (Kirby Lee/Getty Images)

A Trump administration official previously told Fox News that the initial lockdown came in response to “Mexican cartel drones” that breached U.S. airspace.

A U.S. official later confirmed that the U.S. military had shot down what was later determined to be a party balloon near El Paso.

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Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment and was directed to the joint statement provided by the Department of War, Customs and Border Patrol and Federal Aviation Administration.

Fox News Digital’s Anders Hagstrom and Reuters contributed to this report.

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Corporate America is on the move, and these red states are cashing in

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Corporate America is on the move, and these red states are cashing in

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A wave of corporate relocations is reshaping the U.S. economy, and Texas is emerging as the clear winner.

According to a report by CBRE, one of the nation’s largest commercial real estate brokerage firms, 561 companies have relocated their headquarters nationwide since 2018. The research shows many companies are reassessing tax climates, operating costs and growth prospects as they consider a move. 

That’s significant because these moves are often driven by long-term financial and growth strategies, not just geography — giving business-friendly states a competitive edge. 

From Texas to Tennessee, those states are racking up new headquarters, while blue strongholds like California and New York are losing companies at a notable clip.

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Dallas recorded the highest number of corporate headquarters relocations in the country. (Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto/Getty Images)

The Lone Star State clearly dominates the relocation map. Dallas-Fort Worth captured 100 headquarters moves between 2018 and 2024 — the most of any metro in the country — while Austin secured another 81 and Houston added 31. Combined, those three markets accounted for more relocations than most entire states, cementing Texas’ outsized role in reshaping the corporate landscape.

Meanwhile, California metros saw the steepest net losses, led by the San Francisco Bay Area with a net loss of 156 headquarters over the same period. 

As blue states debate regulation and tax policy, Texas business leaders say the state’s approach is paying off. Megan Mauro, interim president and CEO of the Texas Association of Business, points to the state’s tax structure and lighter regulatory climate as key draws.

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“We have a light regulatory touch and no personal or corporate income tax,” Mauro said, citing Texas’ recent $25 billion surplus as evidence of what she calls a competitive tax environment.

Her argument aligns with research from CBRE, which found that companies most often cite lower taxes, reduced operating costs and stronger growth opportunities when relocating their headquarters.

The shift has intensified scrutiny of tax policy in high-cost states. Steve Moore, economist and co-founder of Unleash Prosperity, said those states risk driving away wealth and investment.

“It is common sense for business leaders to pick places for future financial success rather than economic suffocation,” Moore told Fox News Digital.

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California Gov. Gavin Newsom has previously said that he does not support the “billionaire tax” measure. (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

He argued that proposals such as California’s 2026 Billionaire Tax Act are accelerating the outflow of the state’s ultra-wealthy residents to lower-tax states like Texas and Florida. 

“These business tycoons are running to states like Florida and Texas because of lower taxes, economic freedom and future economic prosperity,” he said, describing it as “voting with their feet.”

That shift is also reflected in population data.

From 2021 to 2024, Texas and Florida posted the largest net population gains, while California and several northeastern states recorded some of the steepest losses, according to IRS and U.S. Census Bureau data.

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Moore added that the broader economic implications extend beyond corporate balance sheets.

Growth in states like Texas can expand the tax base and provide additional funding flexibility for infrastructure, education and other priorities — often without raising tax rates.

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President Donald Trump pointed to job growth and other economic milestones during his State of the Union speech on Feb. 24, 2026. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Economic performance frequently shapes midterm messaging, and migration trends like these are poised to feature in debates over tax competitiveness.

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Whether those patterns endure remains to be seen. For now, though, population flows are reinforcing a broader argument: tax policy is no longer an abstract debate — it’s shaping where Americans choose to build their futures.

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