Washington, D.C

Opinion | Gentrification is a problem for cities — especially when it ends

Published

2 years ago

January 11, 2024

Opinion | Gentrification is a problem for cities — especially when it ends

For most of my professional career, one consistent societal issue has been gentrification. Even in the depths of the Great Recession, when housing prices were collapsing, gentrification seemed unstoppable. And while there has been a lot to like about the urban renaissance that has occurred as affluent young professionals have poured into urban centers, there has been nothing good about the displacement, the very visible inequalities between old-timers and newcomers, or the racial and ethnic tensions this has exacerbated.

So politicians, policy wonks and pundits have all spent a lot of time agonizing over what to do about gentrification. They have called for reforms to permitting and zoning rules to make it easier for developers to build new housing, or for subsidies to the people being priced out, or both. In hindsight, we spent surprisingly little time worrying about what would happen to cities without gentrification.

Yet here we are in 2024, and I’m much less worried about gentrification than I am about what you might call gentrification whiplash: the uncomfortable conditions that result when a headlong rush into urban real estate suddenly stops, or even goes into reverse.

This now seems like a real possibility in many places, including my own beloved D.C., which is beset with three major issues at once. Demand for office space has cratered thanks to remote work. Demand for residential real estate has shifted outward to the suburbs, as proximity to the office has become less valuable. And crime keeps soaring to new heights; in 2023, homicide hit 20-year highs in D.C., while car theft reached levels not seen since 2007.

If this trend continues, people who have money and options will do what they did in the middle of the 20th century: decamp for places where they don’t have to spend so much time worrying about being robbed or shot.

Yet the response of my local officials has been curiously lackadaisical. Although violence has been a growing problem since 2020, arrests in 2022 were down by almost half from 2019, prosecutions had fallen even further, the D.C. police’s operating budget shrank by almost 13 percent and the number of officers was falling toward its lowest in about 50 years. Only this past fall did Mayor Muriel E. Bowser finally push through a package of reforms aimed at reducing crime.

So let us add a fourth problem to my city’s woes: city officials who have for years been collecting a sort of hidden subsidy from gentrification, which made their jobs easier in many ways — and stands to make the whiplash worse. We are facing the biggest urban crisis in 50 years with politicians who are used to playing on Easy Mode, which is the policy equivalent of driving without a seat belt.

For the past two decades, if you were overseeing a reasonably successful city like Washington, your tax base kept improving no matter what you did, as richer people replaced poorer ones. In 2006, when I moved to D.C., total tax revenue, net of dedicated taxes, was $4.2 billion (about $6.3 billion in today’s dollars). In 2022, the city collected approximately $8.6 billion ($8.8 billion in 2023 dollars). Of course, the population has increased since 2006 — but not by 40 percent.

Meanwhile, the people who were moving in needed less from the government than the people who were being forced out. The newcomers didn’t need subsidized health care or child care, or the city to arrange a tutor for their kid struggling with math. They were also much less likely to suffer from difficulties associated with poverty, including substance abuse and untreated mental illness — or to generate associated problems such as crime and child abuse.

We frequently talk about the government learning to do more with less, but gentrifying cities got to do less with more: It doesn’t take as much money and ingenuity to educate or police the prosperous middle class as it does to provide those services to a marginalized community, so government didn’t have to be nearly as good at many of its jobs. Yet because the population was less needy, it actually looked as if those services were improving rapidly, if you scanned crime statistics or test scores.

Of course, gentrification didn’t actually solve many of those problems; it just displaced them, while tipping some of the most vulnerable onto the streets. But politicians appeared to be solving them, creating an illusion of competence that might have fooled even the politicians themselves.

This went on for so long that people took it for granted, voters and politicians alike. We got progressive mayors, progressive district attorneys and progressive council members who pursued their laudable goals on the assumption that no matter what they did, crime would keep falling and public coffers would keep overflowing.

Now this illusion is punctured. Ever-increasing urban housing demand cannot be taken for granted, nor can any of the benefits that come with it. City officials can no longer count on gentrification to export their problems to another Zip code; they will have to get better at actually solving them.

Washington, D.C

Storm Team4 Forecast: A chilly, gusty Sunday before a cool start to the week

Published

4 hours ago

April 19, 2026

Press Room

Storm Team4 Forecast: A chilly, gusty Sunday before a cool start to the week

4 things to know about the weather:

Chances of rain in the morning
Gusty Sunday
Chilly Monday
Temps will rise again through the work week

Download the NBC Washington app on iOS and Android to check the weather radar on the go.

After a nice and warm Saturday, changes arrive for part two of the weekend.

The first half of your Sunday will have a chance for showers. Winds will pick up with our next system and are expected to gust to about 20-30 mph. Cooler air will settle in, and lows Sunday night fall into the 40s.

Highs temps Monday will reach only into the mid to upper 50s.

However, temperatures will rise through the week, so you won’t need your jackets every day.

QuickCast

SUNDAY:
Showers, then partly cloudy
Wind: NW 10-15 mph
Gusts @ 30 mph
HIGH: Lower 60s

MONDAY:
Partly cloudy
Wind: NW 10-15 mph
Gusts @ 25 mph
HIGH: Upper 50s

Stay with Storm Team4 for the latest forecast. Download the NBC Washington app on iOS and Android to get severe weather alerts on your phone.

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Washington, D.C

‘It’s a twilight zone’: Iran war casts deep shadows over IMF gathering in Washington

Published

1 day ago

April 18, 2026

Press Room

‘It’s a twilight zone’: Iran war casts deep shadows over IMF gathering in Washington

The most severe energy shock since the 1970s, the risk of a global recession and households everywhere stomaching a renewed surge in the cost of living – hitting the most vulnerable hardest.

In a sweltering hot Washington DC this week, the message at the International Monetary Fund meetings was chilling: things had been looking up for living standards around the world. But then came the Iran war.

“Some countries are in panic,” said the fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, addressing the finance ministers and central bank bosses in town for the IMF and World Bank spring meetings. “The sooner it [the Iran war] ends, the better for everybody.”

Such gatherings are not typically used to fight geopolitical battles. “You don’t get people shouting at one another at these things,” one senior figure remarked. But, as a record-breaking April heatwave swept the US capital, no one could ignore the mounting damage from the Iran war.

Those familiar with the mood over breakfast at a meeting of the G20’s representatives on Thursday, which included Donald Trump’s treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, and the outgoing US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell – said the atmosphere in the room was sombre amid an open exchange of serious views.

“It is such a twilight-zone meeting,” said Mohamed El-Erian, a former IMF deputy managing director who is now chief economic adviser at the Allianz insurance group. “There are several shadows hanging over it: one is the shadow that comes from concern about the global economy as a whole.

“The second is that some countries are going to be particularly hard hit, and it’s mostly countries that very few people are talking about. But the third concern is the adding of insult to injury: the fact that the US, which started a war of choice, is going to be hit, but by a lot less than elsewhere in relative terms.”

Before Thursday’s breakfast, Rachel Reeves had started her day with an early-morning jog. Joined by her counterparts from Spain, Australia and New Zealand for a run down the iconic National Mall, she posted an Instagram selfie with a not-so-subtle dig: “Friends that run together – work together.”

A day earlier, the chancellor had told a CNBC conference that she thought “friends are allowed to disagree on things” as she criticised Trump’s Iran war as a “mistake” and a “folly” that had not made the world safer.

Rachel Reeves posted this image on Instagram from Washington DC on Thursday with the message: ‘Friends that run together – work together.’ Photograph: Rachel Reeves/Instagram

Speaking at a venue just steps away from the White House, before a one-on-one meeting with Bessent, she said this “fair message” was needed because UK families and businesses were feeling the pain from higher energy prices triggered by the conflict.

Those close to Reeves insist her meeting remained cordial. Britain and the US have significant shared interests in AI, financial services and trade. The chancellor also said the UK government had little time for the Iranian regime.

But with the IMF having warned on Tuesday that the Iran war could risk a global recession – in which Britain would be the biggest G7 casualty – it was clear Reeves had travelled to Washington ready to pick a fight.

“I’m struck by how vocal she has been and the words she used,” said one global financier. “We know the disagreement between Bessent and [European Central Bank president] Christine Lagarde earlier in the year. But that was in private.”

At a cocktail party held at the British ambassador’s residence for hundreds of diplomats and financiers – including the Bank of England’s governor, Andrew Bailey, the chief executive of Barclays, CS Venkatakrishnan, and dozens of senior figures – this transatlantic tension, weeks before King Charles’s US state visit, was a major topic of conversation.

The other, in the balmy residence gardens, was one of its former occupants, Peter Mandelson, as revelations about the former ambassador’s appointment threatened to further rock the UK government.

Before the war, the agenda for the IMF had been about global cooperation; the adoption of AI, jobs and work to eradicate poverty. Each of those tasks had now been complicated, but not least the task of countries working together.

For many at the meetings, the focus was on forging closer global cooperation without the world’s pre-eminent superpower.

“Everybody is talking about how you hedge against American decisions,” said David Miliband, the former UK foreign secretary, who now runs the International Rescue Committee. “You can’t do without them, because they’re 25% of the global economy. But, in a lot of fora, they’ve pulled out.

“So everyone has to think, how does one structure international cooperation? The old west is not coming back. And so everyone has to figure out how to position themselves for that world.”

For those gathering in Washington, there was irony in the fact that they were meeting in the halls of institutions founded, under US leadership, to promote global cooperation after the second world war. The whole idea of the Bretton Woods institutions was to avoid the dire economic conditions and warfare of the 1930s and 1940s. Yet this year’s meeting was taking place amid these intertwining problems.

In their conversations about the best economic policy response to the shock of conflict, the economists also knew the real power to make a difference lay two blocks across town from the IMF and the World Bank – behind the security cordons and construction equipment blocking the White House from public view. “It is not clear they can do anything about it,” said El-Erian.

Still, with a booming economy driven by AI – including Anthropic’s powerful Mythos model, the topic of much conversation – most countries cannot afford to completely break off US ties.

“People want to find ways to insulate themselves from the mess. But, on the other hand, they admire the US private sector,” El-Erian said. “The best way I’ve heard it put, is: they want to go long the private sector and short the mess. But it’s almost impossible to do.”

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