Washington, D.C
5 BOLD Predictions for the Washington DC | The FUTURE of Washington DC Real Estate Will SHOCK YOU! – DC Real Estate Mama
5 BOLD Predictions for the Washington DC
It was a tough year for real estate. The past year of 2024 saw higher mortgage interest rates and in many U.S. markets, less buyers. We experienced a shift here in DC metro as well. What’s going to happen now that the new year is here? Will there be more for sale? Here are Melissa’s 5 bold predictions for DC area real estate in 2025.
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The Buyers are Coming Back
I knew this was going to happen. I had been telling clients all last year – this is the time to buy. It’s hard to convince people of this though because I’ve learned some things during my two+ decades in real estate (and in life.) People generally operate with a “today” mindset. They hyperfocus on the present almost to the exclusion of the future.
Here’s why I knew it was time for buyers to return. First, there are always soft spots in the real estate market in the DC area. Those soft spots are August and December. The market resets after those two months. Since we didn’t see much of a recovery in September after everyone finished their summer vacations, I expected that it would come for us in “spring,” i.e. after the new year.
Second, every time there’s a giant thud that stops the velocity of the real estate market – think Sept 11th, 2008 housing crash, or covid, things stop. But they never stop for long. The sharp rise in interest rates has had time to set a “new normal,” and it was time for the buyers to get back out there.
When people ask what I think the spring market will be like, I tell them I’ll know on January 2nd. Why is January 2nd so magical? I know people. And like clockwork, people who want to buy homes all decide to reach out to an agent on January 2nd. I got several calls from potential new clients on January 2nd this year, and a call or two each subsequent day into the first week of January. That’s my barometer. It’s going to be a busy season.
DC Real Estate Will Bounce Back
We all use the term “DC” when we mean the entire metro area. But in this case, DC actually means DC. The city. Inside the DC City limits.
What do I mean that it will bounce back? We saw a drastic reduction in buyer interest in DC properties in the past year.
The neighborhoods that were “up and coming” had slowed due to increased crime. As I heard from another agent recently who brought a buyer to one of my listings, “The third time her car got stolen she knew it was time to move.”
Well. There was that.
In 2023, homicides in the city hit a 20 year high, at 274. But in 2024, crime was down in all categories. Homicides were down over 30%, Robbery down 40% and Assault with a Dangerous Weapon down 27%.
How did the people of DC respond?
In late 2024, the Mayor’s office released data that DC had the biggest single-year population gain since 2013. The District added 15,000 residents from July 2023 to July 2024. That’s pretty good considering it put the city over the 700,000 mark for population.
Administration Changes Will Change Nothing in Real Estate
Everyone believes that there’s this huge exodus of people who leave DC when the administration changes. That’s not true. Here’s a chart to prove this. These are close sales, by month, going back a decade. Look at the election years – 2016, 2020 – do you see any outliers in those years? No. They look like all the other years. So why do people believe this? The short answer is “I don’t know.”
When a new administration comes in with all new people, yes, some of them buy homes. But often, the homes you hear about them buying are the high dollar homes. It makes a great headline, right? But, for every $2M+ home that is purchased by some high-ranking official in the new administration, there are probably 25 homes that aren’t purchased that you won’t hear about.
Incoming people often leave a family behind in another state and commute back and forth. They may purchase a small pied a terre or they may rent. Those in the administration that is leaving office find jobs elsewhere. They don’t just pick up and leave DC because the administration changed. There are plenty of jobs here and they have plenty of connections to secure one of those jobs. Leaving DC would accomplish nothing for them really. They would have fewer job prospects in most other cities. Thus, administration changes really don’t change anything.
Back to the Office
All those empty office buildings eventually had to come back to life. Some have been turned into residential buildings, but other companies have said, “It’s time to come back.”
Trump has made no secret of the fact that he’s going to get people back to the office. Every day. He’s also enlisted Elon Musk to head up Government Efficiency so that should be interesting. I love that name; it’s the world’s best oxymoron. Initial reports stated that they were going to eliminate 100,000 jobs. Will this actually happen? No one knows. Election promises, as we all know, operate in a vacuum. These two can’t unilaterally cut 100,000 jobs, but yes, there will probably be shakeups.
What happens if 100,000 jobs are actually cut? Many of those people will go on to find employment elsewhere. I don’t worry about things until they happen and if they do, the metro area has enough opportunity to absorb those employees into other agencies or the private sector.
Different Price Points, Different Realities
I’ve had this conversation with probably a dozen different buyers over the past six months. When interest rates were low, every price point was affected. Buyers for the $200,000 homes and buyers for the $2M homes were all rushing to snap something up to get the low interest rate locked in for 30 years. When the mortgage rates went up above 7% this past year, most people thought that buying activity would soften across the board. But, surprisingly, it didn’t.
Those in the luxury price points were unaffected. Luxury in the DC Area used to mean $1M or more, but now $1M for a house can be a starting price for many first-time buyers. The buyers in that $1M – $1.4/$1.5M price point were also mostly unaffected. There was slightly less competition. Instead of 5 buyers per home, maybe it was 2-3 buyers.
The biggest changes happened in the sub $600,000 price point. When rates were 3%, there were 10 or 15 buyers for the $500,000 and $600,000 homes. That’s a first-time buyer price point for many buyers. When the rates went up, the number of buyers at those price points, and lower, went from maybe 10 buyers per home down to no buyers or just one buyer. Interesting, right? Why though?
If you think about it, these are entry level price points in this area. You can find homes in some areas for $300,000 and it’s the same story there as it is in the $500,000 to $600,000 price point. The buyer for these homes has a tighter budget, less in savings usually and something like a point or two in an interest rate increase can take them right out of the market.
The good news though is that for those who are left, this is a sweet spot right now! Will it remain this way? I expect the luxury market to continue full steam ahead, business as usual in 2025. I expect more buyers in the sub $600,000 price point to start returning back into the market, but I don’t know that we’ll see them back in full force until 2026 when mortgage rates are expected to come down once again.
A Virginia boater is suing a Washington water utility for negligence in the collapse of a pipe that leaked millions of gallons of raw sewage into the Potomac River.
The class action lawsuit filed Friday in U.S. District Court in Greenbelt, Maryland, comes weeks after a January sewage pipe collapse, shooting wastewater out of the ground and into the river in an area just north of Washington, D.C. The spill is seen as a serious environmental blight and became the focus of political bickering between President Donald Trump and Democratic-led Maryland, where the leak occurred.
Dr. Nicholas Lailas, M.D., the plaintiff, is a Virginia resident and recreational boat user on the Potomac who is seeking compensation for people “whose property interests in and use and enjoyment of the Potomac River … have been impaired by Defendant’s conduct.”
The lawsuit alleges that it was DC Water’s responsibility as the owner and operator of the ruptured pipe, known as the Potomac Interceptor, to maintain it in a “reasonably safe condition and to prevent foreseeable harm to persons and property.”
The lawsuit said that preliminary data indicate that there are thousands of people who own property or vessels in the affected parts of the Potomac.
Andrew Levetown, an attorney for the plaintiff, said in an interview Monday that it will take time to get the full breadth of the class, with business owners, property owners and recreational users all having interest in the potential damages caused by the Jan. 19 collapse and leak.
“You’re going to have businesses who lose business because instead of sitting next to the Potomac, their clients are sitting next to the open sewer,” he said.
The suit did not specify a damage amount. DC Water spokesperson John Lisle said in a statement that the collapse of the Potomac Interceptor was “a serious and unexpected event, and our teams remain focused on the response, environmental protection, and restoration efforts. Because this matter is currently subject to ongoing litigation, it would not be appropriate for us to comment further at this time.”
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser declared an emergency Feb. 18 and requested that President Donald Trump provide federal resources to help the city fight the leak that dumped 250 million gallons of raw sewage into the Potomac River in its early stages. The president approved the emergency assistance days later to help the city address the emergency.
DC Water gave its most detailed assessment yet of why the Potomac River sewage spill occurred and what it will take to fix it. News4’s Mark Segraves reports.
DC Water said it knew the pipe, first installed in the 1960s, was deteriorating, and rehabilitation work on a section about a quarter-mile (400 meters) from the break began in September and was recently completed. The pipe that ruptured was scheduled for repair this summer.
DC Water’s updates say the emergency repairs are beyond the halfway point and there are no flows into the river.
At a public briefing last week, officials with the utility said they were assessing the cause of the rupture, including whether the way the pipeline was initially constructed contributed to the emergency. David Gadis, the CEO of DC Water, said at that briefing that while it was too early to say definitively, “we are seeing indication that this incident may have been highly unusual.”
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WASHINGTON — Get ready to start your engines, DC.
Officials unveiled the 1.66-mile circuit route Monday, where race cars will be zooming around the National Mall in August for the Freedom 250 Grand Prix in celebration of America’s birthday.
The seven‑turn layout features views of the Washington Monument, US Capitol, the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum, and part of Pennsylvania Avenue, IndyCar announced.
“This was a team effort,” Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said. “It’s Penske, it’s FOX, it’s the mayor, it’s Interior, it’s everybody else joining together not to make a profit, not to get your name out there but to say, let’s celebrate America.”
“Let’s celebrate America’s birthday.”
The first-ever street race around the National Mall will take place from Aug. 22-23, with the course itself set to be built up during the summer.
Drivers will also blast past the National Archives, the National Gallery of Art, and the Hirshhorn Museum, with a pit lane on Pennsylvania Avenue.
Officials debuted a red, white, and blue “Freedom 250 Grand Prix IndyCar” design Monday to honor the upcoming 250th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.
“We want people to plan their trips to D.C. now,” DC Mayor Muriel Bowser said. “Come for the Freedom 250, and then stay to enjoy our monuments and museums, our beautiful parks, world-class restaurants and hotels, and all the culture and entertainment that make us the best city in the world.”
President Trump took executive action back in January, tasking Duffy and Secretary of the Interior Sean Duffy to coordinate with Bowser on planning the feted event.
“The story of America is one of vision, courage, perseverance – and speed,” Monica Crowley, Trump’s representative for America’s 250th, said in a statement.
“Presidents Washington and Jefferson marked notable celebrations with spirited horse races; the Freedom 250 race will bring that historic tradition into the 21st century and renew a tremendous sense of patriotic pride.”
Trump’s team is eyeing other major sports events to celebrate America’s 250th anniversary, including a UFC fight at the White House. The US is also co-hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup over the summer.
Washington, D.C
Storm Team4 forecast, Enjoy a pleasant start to the week with temperatures in the 70s
4 things to know about the weather:
- “May” not “March” for now
- Next rain late Wednesday, Thursday
- Back to average by Friday
- Much colder next Week
The warmer weather we’ve waited months for will be with us for only three more days before the March Lion starts to roar again.
Monday and Tuesday will be the best days of the week by far. Sunny skies and temperatures running 20-25° above average. Plan for highs reaching the low 70s Monday and near 80° on Tuesday.
A series of cold fronts later in the week will send temperatures back to average 54° by the end of the week and then well below average for most of next week.
Clouds will return by Wednesday morning and rain chances will arrive no later than sunset. Wednesday will still be close to 80° and have our first taste of humidity in a while. Rain is likely from Wednesday evening through noon on Thursday as our first cold front arrives.
Thursday’s highs, likely near 70°, will occur before sunrise but gusty northwest winds will have temperatures falling steadily throughout the day. Expect temperatures in the 50s, rain for the morning commute and 40s with rain ending for the ride home.
Download the NBC Washington app on iOS and Android to check the weather radar on the go.
Warm streak won’t last long
The good news is that Friday and the upcoming weekend look dry. Highs will be back in the mid-50s for Friday and Saturday but Sunday should get back into the mid-60s.
Another cold front will arrive early next week leading to temperatures running 10-15° below average. It’s also not entirely out of the question that there could be a wet snowflake or two on St. Patrick’s Day.
The return of the cold air next week will keep the cherry trees at bay so the odds of peak bloom occurring in March, like it has the last five to six years in a row, are looking slim at best.
QuickCast
MONDAY:
Mostly Sunny
Nice And Warm
Light Breeze
Wind: Southwest 5-10 mph
Chance of Rain: 0%
HIGHS: 68° to 74°
MONDAY NIGHT:
Clear Skies
Remaining Mild
Patchy Areas Of Fog
Wind: Variable 5 mph
Chance Of Rain: 0%
LOWS: 46° to 52°
TUESDAY:
Mostly Sunny
Near Record Warmth
Light Breeze
Wind: Southwest 5-10 mph
Chance of Rain: 0%
HIGHS: 76° to 82°
WEDNESDAY:
Breezy, Warm And Humid
Increasing Clouds
Showers By Evening
Wind: Southwest 10-25mph
Chance of Rain: 40%
HIGHS: 75° to 80°
THURSDAY:
Cloudy, Windy, Much Colder
Rain Likely Before 2pm
Falling Temperatures
Wind: Northwest 20-35 mph
Chance of Rain: 80%
HIGHS: 65° to 45°
Sunrise: 7:29 Sunset: 7:09
Average High: 54° Average Low: 37°
Stay with Storm Team4 for the latest forecast. Download the NBC Washington app on iOS and Android to get severe weather alerts on your phone.
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