As she addressed about 120 Democratic voters at a rally in rural Orange, Virginia, Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger made a point to impress upon her constituents just how much is on the line this fall.

“This is personal. And politics is personal,” Spanberger told the crowd. “This year more than any other year, this election matters.”

Stepping up to the podium, one of the Democrats endorsed by Spanberger, the state senate candidate Jason Ford, warned that Republican victories in November could have devastating consequences across the state.

“In Virginia, reproductive rights are on the ballot this fall,” Ford said. “Properly funding our schools [is] on the ballot this fall.”

The messages encapsulated Virginia Democrats’ broader pitch to voters as they look to regain control of the house of delegates and maintain their narrow majority in the state senate. They fear that, if Republicans can take full control of the general assembly, they will rubber-stamp Governor Glenn Youngkin’s conservative agenda to lower taxes and bolster “parents’ rights”. But most importantly, Democrats expect Republican victories in November would jeopardize abortion access in Virginia, which has become a rare refuge for those seeking the procedure in thesouth.

The results also may provide the clearest indication yet of voters’ sentiments ahead of the 2024 elections and determine whether Virginia can still be considered a battleground, considering Republicans have lost the state in every presidential race since 2008.

“Too many people think Virginia is solid blue in the electoral college,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. “With Glenn Youngkin’s victory, and if the Republicans achieve what they are setting out to do this year, I think all bets are off for 2024.”

An off-off-year

Virginia is one of just five US states that conduct off-year elections, meaning those that are held when no federal elections take place. History shows turnout in Virginia’s state legislative races tends to be particularly low in so-called “off-off-years” when there are no major statewide offices such as governor on the ballot.

But candidates and activists from both sides of the aisle insist it would be a mistake to downplay the importance of Virginia’s elections this year. If Republicans can flip just two seats in the state senate, Youngkin will face few impediments in enacting his legislative agenda.

Since taking office last year, Youngkin has already advanced policies calling for transgender children to use bathrooms and locker rooms that correspond with their sex assigned at birth. On his first day in office, Youngkin signed executive orders aimed at barring schools from teaching critical race theory and loosening public health mandates related to the coronavirus pandemic.

“To get in and have the opportunity to take back the state senate and be able to support those initiatives is something that’s really important,” said Steve Knotts, chair of the Fairfax county Republican party in northern Virginia. “I think that they’ll be voting for Governor Youngkin’s initiatives and Republican control of the state legislature this year, but we have to do the work to get that message out because a lot of people forget there’s an election.”

All 100 seats in the house of delegates, where Republicans held a 52-48 majority during the most recent legislative session, will be up for grabs. Democrats will be defending a 22-18 advantage in the state senate, where every seat will also be in play this November. The implementation of a new legislative map, which fueled a wave of retirements among veteran Virginia legislators, has injected more uncertainty into the elections.

As of now, control of the legislature appears to be a true toss-up. According to a survey conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University in July, 47% of Virginians want Republicans in control of the house of delegates, compared with 41% who would prefer a Democratic majority. When asked about control of the state senate, Virginians were evenly divided, with 44% of respondents preferring a Democratic majority and another 44% supporting a Republican takeover.

A fully red general assembly would be a gamechanger for Youngkin, who has faced a legislative blockade from Senate Democrats. A Republican takeover would erase the last major barrier in Youngkin’s quest to enact his full agenda – including a 15-week abortion ban.

“This race is first and foremost about abortion,” said Susan Swecker, chair of the Democratic party of Virginia. “If it hadn’t been for the Democratic blue brick wall in the state senate the last two years, abortion would be banned in Virginia.”

The last holdout in the south

In the wake of the supreme court’s decision last year to overturn Roe v Wade, southern states controlled by Republicans passed a wave of laws severely restricting access to abortion or, in some cases, banning it altogether. Virginia – where abortion is currently legal until about 26 weeks – has become the last remaining southern state without extensive abortion restrictions, but that status could soon evaporate if Republicans have their way.

Youngkin has indicated he supports a 15-week abortion ban with exceptions for rape, incest and the safety of the mother. The governor has framed the proposal, which senate Democrats already defeated once earlier this year, as a point of consensus among a wide swath of Virginia voters.

“I believe that there’s a moment for Virginians to come together over a very, very difficult topic, and Virginians elected a pro-life governor,” Youngkin said last month.

But polls challenge the perception of a 15-week ban as an area of common ground across the state. According to a Washington Post-Schar School survey conducted in March, 49% of Virginia voters support a 15-week ban with exceptions, while 46% oppose it. Voters also expressed criticism of Youngkin’s stance on abortion, with 33% approving of his handling of the issue and 45% disapproving.

Threats to abortion access appear to be weighing heavily on Virginians’ minds as they head for the polls. Sara Ratcliffe, a Democratic candidate for the house of delegates who spoke at the Orange rally, said abortion was often the first issue voters mention when she knocks on doors.

“As the dominoes have fallen, especially in the redder states and in the states surrounding us here in the south, people have realized what’s at stake,” Ratcliffe said. “People are scared, and people are worried, which is why they’re turning out and they’re voting on this issue.”

That fear and anger was palpable among the Democratic attendees of the Orange rally, several of whom cited protecting abortion access as their top priority for November.

“People younger than me now don’t have the same freedoms I had when I was a woman of childbearing age, and I feel that’s not fair,” said Lynn Meyers, a 78-year-old from Locust Grove.

Bill Maiden, a 58-year-old voter from Culpepper, added, “Even my friends that are Republican, they are concerned about [abortion access] too. They don’t agree with Youngkin’s stance on this.”

Concerns over abortion restrictions contributed to Republicans’ disappointing performance in the 2022 midterms, and the issue could now threaten the party’s hopes in Virginia.

Despite the potential political liability of a 15-week ban, Democrats fear that Youngkin will not hesitate to approve an even more severe policy if Republicans flip the senate. They often remind voters that, shortly after Roe was overturned last year, Youngkin said, “Any bill that comes to my desk I will sign happily and gleefully in order to protect life.”

Youngkin bets big on 2023

Three years ago, most Virginians had never heard the name Glenn Youngkin. A former co-CEO of the private equity firm the Carlyle Group, Youngkin’s 2021 gubernatorial bid marked his first foray into electoral politics.

He defeated six primary opponents by carefully toeing the line between endorsing many of Donald Trump’s policy positions on culture war issues without completely alienating the independent voters who eventually fueled his victory in the general election. Youngkin’s win over the former Democratic governor Terry McAuliffe was all the more surprising given that it came just one year after Joe Biden beat Trump in Virginia by 10 points.

“The guy never ran for office before, but he just had really good instincts [on] how to strike that balance and get the support of the [‘Make America Great Again’] Republicans while not seeming threatening at all to swing voters at the same time,” Rozell said. “Not many Republicans these days can do that.”

Those instincts appear to have served Youngkin well in office so far. The VCU survey conducted in July showed Youngkin’s approval rating stood at +18, as 49% of Virginians approved of the governor’s job performance and 31% disapproved. Biden trailed far behind Youngkin at -15, with 39% of Virginians approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving.

Those approval numbers have made Knotts more optimistic about Republicans’ prospects in November. “We have a very popular governor who is really getting in and doing some programs that are good for Democrats, Republicans [and] independents,” Knotts said. “So I think this could be a really good year for us.”

Youngkin’s popularity has also spurred talk of a potential presidential bid, and the Fox News owner, Rupert Murdoch, has reportedly told allies that he would like to see the Virginia governor jump into the 2024 Republican primary.

Youngkin’s success or failure in November could decide his fate on the national stage, and he has dedicated substantial political capital to bringing home a win for Republicans. Youngkin’s state Pac, Spirit of Virginia, raised an impressive $5.9m during the second quarter of the year to promote Republican campaigns.

“This is a unifying agenda that is resonating across the Commonwealth,” said Dave Rexrode, chair of the Spirit of Virginia. “Virginians want leaders in the general assembly who will work with Governor Youngkin to move our commonwealth forward.”

Beyond Youngkin’s own political future, the outcome in Virginia this November could provide a roadmap for both parties in 2024, as they battle it out for the White House.

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When Barack Obama won Virginia in the 2008 presidential race, he became the first Democrat to carry the state since 1964, and the victory marked a sea change for his party. Democrats have won Virginia in every presidential election since Obama’s landmark victory, and the party now holds both of Virginia’s US Senate seats.

Their wins have led some Democrats to downplay Virginia’s status as a battleground state, but Swecker warns that would be a dangerous oversight.

“People got very excited about the successes we had and took for granted that we were a blue state,” Swecker said. “Those of us who are in the trenches know better.”

Youngkin’s victory in 2021 demonstrated how Republicans can still play statewide in Virginia, and the governor hopes that the legislative races this year will prove his win was no fluke.

“I am curious whether the Republicans are able to carry that momentum into this election cycle and what it might suggest about the Republican base and how deeply engaged it is and activated going into the 2024 elections,” Rozell said.

Regardless of the outcome in Virginia, the November results will be closely scrutinized by both parties to spot potential strengths and vulnerabilities heading into 2024, when the White House and Congress will be up for grabs.

As someone who has closely studied Virginia politics since the 1980s, Rozell has endured much talk about the state being a guarantee for one party or the other over the years, but he insists that Virginia remains, as ever, a battleground.

“Don’t assume that Virginia is a Democratic lock any more,” Rozell said. “And those 13 electoral votes can be really important next year.”