A New York Times-Siena College poll conducted in Virginia July 9-12 showed the opposite result, with Biden leading Trump by three percentage points — 48 to 45 — among likely voters, though that result is also within the poll’s margin of error. Both polls are in line with other recent Virginia surveys that suggest a significant decline in support for Biden, who beat Trump in the state by five points in 2016 and 10 points in 2020.

“Virginia is in play,” said former governor L. Douglas Wilder (D), whose namesake school of public policy sponsored the poll. “It is a close race. It’s a turnout election in Virginia.”

The VCU-Wilder poll also shows that Virginians support incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine (D) by double digits over Republican challenger Hung Cao, at 49 percent to 38 percent.

At the same time, the survey found a seven-point net decline in Virginians’ approval of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), with 50 percent approving of his performance as governor and 39 percent disapproving. The school’s January survey showed Youngkin’s approval was four points higher — 54 percent — and disapproval was three points lower, at 36 percent.

With Youngkin weakening and Kaine looking strong, Wilder said, “then why is there such a drop in support for Democrat Biden? I would not be the person to say that he should step down … but it’s very concerning for Democrats.” He suggested that Biden’s debate performance and his stumbles in a follow-up television interview with George Stephanopoulos weakened support for the president.

Respondents rated the “rising cost of living” as the top issue in the race, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration.

Biden got low marks for overall handling of his job: 36 percent approved of his performance as president while 58 percent disapproved.

The Democrat particularly lost support among Black voters; 46 percent said they would vote for Biden while 13.7 percent said they would vote for Trump, but Biden’s support from Black voters was down from 67 percent in the last VCU-Wilder poll.

The poll also found that 53 percent of Virginia voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump because of his conviction in New York on 34 felony counts related to hush money payments to an adult-film actress. Another 31 percent said they were more likely to vote for him after the convictions. Among independents, 45 percent said the convictions made them less likely to support Trump while 25 percent said they were more likely.

Wilder said the results mean Biden needs to spend time persuading Virginians to support him. “He needs to do something demonstrably in Virginia so people say, ‘We got to have this guy.’ It’s not a question of the lesser of two evils — no, no, tell us what it is that you are going to do,” Wilder said.

Trump has insisted he can win Virginia, aided by Youngkin, who had kept the controversial former president at arm’s length but finally appeared with him at a rally in Chesapeake, Va., late last month. Biden, meanwhile, has opened campaign offices across Virginia and appeared at an abortion rights rally in Manassas in January.

The VCU-Wilder poll consisted of telephone interviews with 809 Virginia adults, age 18 or older, with about a third conducted on landlines and the rest on cellphones.