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Final polls predict winners of New York, New Jersey, Virginia elections

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Final polls predict winners of New York, New Jersey, Virginia elections


Newsweek has rounded up what the latest polls are saying about the elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia as Americans cast their votes.

Why It Matters

The 2025 races in the three states are drawing national attention as voters prepare to select leaders in three high-profile contests.

The results could set the tone for the 2026 midterms and provide insight into shifting political dynamics on the East Coast. The outcomes will also serve as a measure of support for the Democratic and Republican parties.

What To Know

New York City Mayor’s Race

Democrat Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is favored to win the mayoral contest against former Governor Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa.

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According to the latest Marist Poll (conducted October 24-28), Mamdani leads Cuomo by 16 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 32 percent, with Sliwa at 16 percent. The poll sampled 792 likely voters and has a margin of error of =/-4.2 percent.

A separate AtlasIntel poll places Mamdani’s lead at 4.5 points over Cuomo (43.9 percent to Cuomo’s 39.4 percent). Some 2,404 people were surveyed between October 31 and November 2. The poll has a margin of error of =/- 2 percentage points.

In a Fox News poll, Mamdani has a 16-point lead with 47 percent on Cuomo (31 percent). These results are based on 971 likely voters questioned between October 24 and October 28—there is a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

New Jersey Governor’s Race

The New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is one of the closest in recent history.

The latest AtlasIntel poll (October 25-30; 1,639 likely voters, =/-2 percent margin) gives Sherrill a narrow edge, 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent.

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Meanwhile, a John Zogby Strategies poll, carried out among 1,205 people between October 31 and November 3, places Sherrill ahead (55 percent) of Ciattarelli (43.4 percent). There is a +/- 2.9 percentage point margin of error.

Research Co. also has Sherrill in the lead with 3 points more than Ciattarelli (52 percent to 48 percent) among 450 likely voters questioned between November 2 and 3—there is a =/- 4.5 percentage point margin of error.

Virginia Governor’s Race

Democratic incumbent Abigail Spanberger appears favored over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

Trafalgar Group has given her a 5.6 percentage point lead over Earle-Sears (49.8 percent to 43.3 percent). Meanwhile, the latest Insider Advantage survey of 800 likely voters (questioned between November 2 and 3) has Spanberger at 50 percent and Earle-Sears at 40 percent. There is a +/- 3.46 percentage point margin of error.

Research Co.’s poll (November 2 and 3 among 450 likely voters) shows Spanberger with a lead of 54 percent over Winsome Earle-Sears’s 46 percent. There is a =/- 4.6 percent margin of error.

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What People Are Saying

Statistician Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight (538), said about the race in New Jersey: “A close race could just come down to Sherrill being part of an unpopular two-time incumbent party. That’s why it’s going to be hard to infer much from this election, either about the state of New Jersey or the broader political environment.”

Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani, outside New York City Hall on Monday: “I continue to be confident about our chances heading into Election Day tomorrow. But I will not allow myself or let this movement to become complacent.”

What Happens Next

Polling places in New York, New Jersey and Virginia are open for in-person voting, with initial results expected to emerge after polls close Tuesday evening.

High mail-in and early voting rates add potential uncertainty—final outcomes may not be clear until late Tuesday or Wednesday.



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Virginia governor signs paid leave law, first in the South – WTOP News

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Virginia governor signs paid leave law, first in the South – WTOP News


Virginia’s governor has signed the state’s Paid Family and Medical Leave Law, making the commonwealth one of more than a dozen states offering similar benefits and the first in the South to do so.

Virginia’s governor signed the state’s Paid Family and Medical Leave Law last month, making the commonwealth one of more than a dozen states offering similar benefits and the first in the South to do so.

Gov. Abigail Spanberger made it official, saying the law is designed to help smaller businesses retain employees who encounter difficult times.

“Whether you punch a timecard, swipe a badge or work primarily for tips, you will be able to take up to 12 weeks of paid leave to address serious health needs for you and your family,” she said.

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The program works similarly to unemployment insurance. Employees and employers will pay into it through payroll deductions starting in 2028. If needed, a person can receive up to 80% of their wages for up to 12 weeks. Benefits are expected to become available in December 2028.

The law is expected to apply to most workers across the state, including many who don’t currently have paid leave through their jobs.

“Three million Virginians who previously lacked access to paid family leave will have the ability to care for a loved one, to recover from a serious illness or to welcome a new child without sacrificing their pay or without ending that time with additional credit card debt. Because no one should have to choose between spending time with their newborn and paying their bills,” Spanberger said.

It also covers caring for a sick family member and can help someone dealing with domestic violence, sexual assault or stalking.

Speaking at the signing, Monica Jackson, who owns a childcare center in Springfield, said the program will help small businesses compete and better support working families.

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“Enabling programs like mine to remain open, to operate sustainably and to continue serving the families who rely on us for their financial stability,” Jackson said.

State Sen. Jennifer Boysko, the bill’s chief sponsor, said she worked on the policy for eight legislative sessions and is happy to see it officially become law.

“Virginia families are going to have the grace to care for themselves and their loved ones during these most serious events without going bankrupt,” Boysko said.

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Virginia Supreme Court voids voter-approved redistricting referendum

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Virginia Supreme Court voids voter-approved redistricting referendum

On May 8, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the General Assembly violated the state constitution when it tried to redraw congressional districts, nullifying the results of the April election in which Virginians narrowly approved redistricting.

Electoral maps are usually redrawn once every 10 years, but multiple states began redrawing them early after President Donald Trump urged Republicans to redraw district lines to ensure more favorable results for the party in the November 2026 elections. 

This started a nationwide political battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Texas was the first of several states to redraw districts favoring Republicans, and Virginia Democrats had proposed a constitutional amendment to allow redistricting in order to favor Democrats. 

As of May 8, Republicans had initiated redistricting efforts in eight states; Democrats had led redistricting efforts in three states, including Virginia, the Washington Post reported.

In April, Virginia voters supported the redistricting amendment with 51.7% voting for it out of more than 3 million ballots cast. It could have given Democrats up to four extra seats in the U.S. House, according to the Washington Post (subscription required).

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But the Virginia Supreme Court, in a 4-3 ruling, found that there were procedural errors in how the Democratic legislature handled the process, nullifying the election results.

The Virginia Constitution says that proposed constitutional amendments must pass in the General Assembly twice before the public can vote on them: once before an election of the House of Delegates, and again after an election. According to the Virginia Supreme Court majority opinion written by Justice D. Arthur Kelsey, early voting for the general election had already been open for six weeks when the General Assembly cast its first vote on the amendment in October 2025, with more than 1.3 million voters having already cast their ballots.

“This violation irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void,” the court majority opinion stated.

The court’s ruling means the state reverts to the old district maps adopted in 2021. Based on those maps, Virginia voters elected six Democrats and five Republicans to the U.S. House.

Following the court’s ruling, some Virginia Democrats who planned to run for the U.S. House told the New York Times that they have to abandon their campaigns, while others, such as Tom Perriello who is running for the 5th District, face much more difficult campaigns.

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Virginia Democrats on Friday asked the court to pause the nullification of the referendum results while they prepare their appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, according to VPM.

Get in touch if you’ve been impacted by the overturned redistricting results

If you’ve been impacted by the Virginia State Supreme Court’s decision to nullify the results of the April 21 special election on redistricting, we want to hear from you.

Send us a tip or question using our contact form. You can also call (434) 218-3649 and give us as much information as you can in your voice message. You can also reach our newsroom on Signal at (434) 218-3649 or @cvilletomorrow.05. Signal is a chat and voice app for your smartphone that has end-to-end encryption and is run by a nonprofit organization.

While we can’t cover every story that’s important to you, we do our best to be responsive to your needs. We use tips from readers to choose which stories to cover, to incorporate information into broader reports or to help us decide how to grow Charlottesville Tomorrow. Here’s where you can tell us what you think we should be covering.

2026 Central Virginia Voter Guide

View live results of Virginia’s redistricting referendum, a high-stakes vote on whether Democrats who control state government can redraw congressional maps ahead of this fall’s election.

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Virginia’s redistricting battle moves to the courts

Attorney General Jay Jones vows to appeal as early voting fast approaches.

What does a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote actually mean in Virginia’s special election on redistricting?

Voters are getting mixed messages. Here’s a clear breakdown.



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Virginia Heads To Knoxville Regional With Third Straight NCAA Bid

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Virginia Heads To Knoxville Regional With Third Straight NCAA Bid


CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – The No. 23 Virginia softball team (38-13) earned its third consecutive NCAA Tournament berth on Sunday (May 10) and will play in the Knoxville Regional, it was announced during the NCAA Selection Show on ESPN2. The Cavaliers face Indiana (42-14) in the first game of the day. The Cavaliers are the seven-seed […]



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