Virginia

3 players, 2 matchups, and 1 prediction: Virginia at Wake Forest

Published

11 months ago

January 11, 2024

3 players, 2 matchups, and 1 prediction: Virginia at Wake Forest

Virginia Basketball can’t win on the road. Not right now, anyway. The last three road games have all been blowouts. For many years, Virginia has consistently won on the road. People say “defense travels” and that was often true for those teams. But this team isn’t playing defense on the road. In those three losses, the opposing teams have scored 1.17 points per possession. That would rank in the bottom 10 nationally.

The Wahoos now travel to Winston-Salem to face another solidly mediocre ACC team in Wake Forest. They are coming off a road loss against Florida State on Tuesday, but they beat Miami last weekend. They are 11-4 (3-1 ACC), and ranked 44th on KenPom. The Wahoos have plummeted all the way to 60th on KenPom.

Game Time: Saturday, January 13, 2PM Eastern
TV: ESPN2
Streaming: WatchESPN

Three Players to Watch

Kevin “Boopie” Miller

Like so many teams these days, Wake Forest is led by transfers. Miller comes in from Central Michigan. They also have transfers from Gonzaga and Delaware. Four of their five starters come via transfer. Miller missed most of last season with a foot injury. He hasn’t missed a beat.

Boopie runs the point and leads the team in scoring and assists, plus steals. Something I say over and over again, but Miller has never faced a defender like Beekman. Reece is going to have to be on point defensively, because Miller can score.

Some kinda move and finish. Miller can shoot (39% this year, 37% career). But this is more his game. He takes just around 3 treys per game. He’s best going downhill to the rim to either finish or draw a foul.

Andrew Carr

Another transfer, Carr actually came in last season, so he’s got some experience in the system. Last year, he averaged 11 and 6 on 48% shooting. He attempted around 3 treys per game, making just 31%.

He’s improved every one of those numbers since last year, and he’s up to 13 points and 7.5 rebounds on 53% shooting and 35% from downtown. Maybe he comes back closer to where he was last year by the end of ACC play. But that’s still a very good player, and it does seem like Carr has improved. He’s 6’10” 220, and this is the type of player Virginia has struggled with.

The Deacons have a seven-footer in Efton Reid (5-star recruit originally from Richmond, began at LSU and transferred to Gonzaga and now to Wake Forest), which makes Carr the 4. They’ll go small with Carr at 5 sometimes, but that is their starting lineup. And that type of lineup has given Virginia fits this year. Ryan Dunn is a beast defensively. On the perimeter. But he isn’t really up to banging inside with bigger players. He’s too slight. And Virginia doesn’t have enough frontcourt depth to move Dunn to the wing.

If Virginia is going to win this game, keeping Carr off the offensive glass and out of the paint is absolutely imperative.

Again, the outside shot isn’t really his game. But this was a HUGE shot, on the road at BC, and it clinched the game. Notice Nice drive and kick from Miller.

Parker Friedrichsen

This is Wake’s answer to Isaac McKneely. He’s a 6’3” 195 freshman and he can shoot. But he doesn’t do much else. His rebound rate is miniscule. His assist rate is miniscule. He’s attempted 70 shots on the season and just 4(!) have come from 2-point range. That’s 94%! It’s a small sample size, but Friedrichsen does look solid defensively.

Friedrichsen is 8/20 from downtown over his past 3 games. McKneely is 9/17 over his last 3. That matchup at the 2 could be a key factor. If one of them gets going from deep, it could turn the game.

This is a sick step-back. How do you stop that?

Two Key Matchups

Three Point Shooting

It isn’t just Friedrichsen. This whole team can shoot the rock. Cameron Hildreth, the longest tenured Deacon, is shooting 46% on 4 attempts per game. As a team, they are shooting just under 38%. It’s the most important part of their offense because it drives everything else they do.

Look at that game clinching three from Andrew Carr. At the beginning of the play, there isn’t a single Deacon inside the three-point line. Efton Reid is setting a screen up top for Miller, and the rest of the team are spotting up outside the arc. That means the paint is open, which makes the defender crash when Miller gets inside. That leaves the shooter open. Rotations against this offense have to be crisp, or there are going to be open threes.

Wake is a small team on the perimeter and they aren’t good at defending the outside. In their four losses, their opponents shot almost 40% from three. That’s what this game will be. If Virginia makes shots, they are in it. If they don’t make shots, they won’t be in it.

Turnovers

I’ve discussed this here before, but the extra possessions gained by Virginia’s forced turnovers was really helping to drive the offense. An offense that simply isn’t very good, gets a huge boost from easy buckets.

NC State had just 6 TOs in their runaway win. It’s safe to say that if Virginia has more TOs than their opponent, they are going to struggle to win.

Historically, Tony Bennett’s teams haven’t been geat at forcing TOs. The goal is usually to force bad shots, not to force turnovers. The national championship team ranked 250th in forced turnover rate. It’s because of the natural talents of Beekman and Dunn, mostly. But it may also have been covering for some other defensive shortcomings. That only works if teams actually commit turnovers, though.

Wake Forest is a low turnover team. They play a lot of iso ball and a lot of screen-and-roll. Not a ton of passing from guys not named Miller. The Deacons rank 312th nationally in assist rate. That’s usually a bad thing against Tony Bennett teams. Not sure about this team right now though.

One Prediction

Wake is much more of a perimeter oriented team, compared to NC State. That matchup never looked great because of the Wolfpack’s interior presence. It feels like a better matchup for the Hoos. But until we see this team play well on the road, it is awfully hard to think they are going to win anything.

Prediction: Deacons 69, Virginia 60

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Virginia

West Virginia Mountaineers: Commitment 101: Jahmir Davis

Published

2 mins ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

West Virginia Mountaineers: Commitment 101: Jahmir Davis

Cincinnati (Oh.) La Salle 2025 offensive tackle Jahmir Davis has committed to West Virginia.

The 6-foot-6, 305-pounder, picked the Mountaineers after a weekend official visit to campus where he earned a scholarship offer from the Big 12 Conference program.

The Buckeye State product also held offer from Marshall and Kent State but had been on the West Virginia radar since the summer.

That interest picked up over the past several weeks after a strong senior season where he earned Division II Southwest District All Star first-team selection honors.

Davis was recruited by recruiting coordinators Trey Neyer and Ken Signoretti and then developed into a connection with offensive line coach Matt Moore.

The offensive tackle fills a need for West Virginia in the 2025 class and becomes the third offensive lineman to commit to the program this cycle behind Olney (Md.) Good Counsel 2025 offensive lineman Gavin Crawford and Olney (Md.) Good Counsel offensive lineman Eidan Buchanan.

Overall, Davis is the 23rd prospect to commit to West Virginia in the 2025 class.

WVSports.com breaks down the commitment of Davis and what it means to the West Virginia Mountaineers football program both now and in the future.

Skill set:

Davis possesses excellent size and good athleticism for an offensive tackle. He also has an impressive wingspan which is going to help him in his role at the position. An under-the-radar type, West Virginia has had a lot of success over the years with identifying these athletic body types and molding them for their roles along the offensive front and Davis has the potential to do the same.

The Mountaineers needed to find another tackle type body in this class and Davis checks that box physically, while also impressing with his play on the field as a senior.

Fitting the program:

West Virginia needed more offensive tackle body types in the program with the Mountaineers set to lose both of their starters from the 2024 season to graduation. Buchanan is a major piece to that puzzle, but Davis is also is exactly what the doctor ordered. An intriguing frame, with plus athleticism, Davis is going to need to develop his body at the college level and fill out but has the physical qualities that you’re looking for at tackle.

The offensive lineman has already visited Morgantown so there is a comfort level there and he should be able to step and in start that process in an offensive line room that will lose four players at the end of the year.

West Virginia has continued to make Ohio a key state when it comes to targeting players and Davis is just the latest to join the program in the past couple seasons.

Recruiting the position:

In terms of offensive tackles Davis fills the need there but the Mountaineers are still recruiting one key target on the offensive line in Ohio commitment Parma (Oh.) Padua Franciscan 2025 offensive lineman Brandon Homady. Like Davis, Homady took an official visit over the weekend to Morgantown and the Mountaineers have made him a priority down the stretch as an interior option on the offensive front.

———-

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Virginia

West Virginia Turnpike | Thanksgiving holiday travel forecast

Published

8 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

West Virginia Turnpike | Thanksgiving holiday travel forecast

CHARLESTON, W.Va. (WSAZ) – The West Virginia Parkways Authority is expecting an estimated 715,100 total transactions to take place at the West Virginia Turnpike’s three toll booths in the six-day Thanksgiving holiday travel period from Tuesday, November 26, 2024, to Sunday, December 1, 2024.

“Wednesday and Sunday of Thanksgiving week are typically two of the busiest travel days we experience on the West Virginia Turnpike during the entire year” said Jeff Miller, executive director of the Parkways Authority.

On Wednesday, November 27, 2024, 150,000 transactions are expected to take place on the West Virginia Turnpike, with 160,000 transactions expected on Sunday, December 1, 2024.

A total of 127,500 transactions are expected on Tuesday, November 26, 2024, with heavier traffic from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m.; 65,000 transactions estimated on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, November 28, 2024; and 82,500 transactions estimated on Friday, November 29, 2024. On Saturday, November 30, 2024, the West Virginia Parkways Authority estimates 127,500 transactions at Turnpike toll booths.

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Virginia

UVA Football Report Card: Handing Out Grades for Virginia vs. SMU

Published

16 hours ago

November 25, 2024

Press Room

UVA Football Report Card: Handing Out Grades for Virginia vs. SMU

It’s time to break down Virginia’s 33-7 loss to No. 13 SMU on Saturday by handing out some report card grades for various players, position groups, and other categories to evaluate the Cavaliers’ performance in week 13.

We’ll save the QB debate of Colandrea vs. Muskett and Tony Elliott’s handling of that situation for another time. We’re only interested in grading Colandrea’s quarterback play on the field… which left a whole lot to be desired. We’ll give Colandrea some slack because he was frequently under duress throughout the game and didn’t turn the ball over for the first time in over a month. What we won’t give him credit for is his artificial completion percentage. He completed 18 of 27 passes (67%), but fueling that (on paper) decent stat is Colandrea’s mind-boggling refusal to throw the ball away or attempt to push the ball down the field. The offensive line is not in good shape, but at least a few of those nine sacks were instances where Colandrea ran himself into sacks instead of getting rid of the ball. The one touchdown pass to Malachi Fields late in the fourth quarter represented everything good and bad about Anthony Colandrea all wrapped up into one play, as he retreated 20+ yards to evade pressure before unleashing a beautiful throw to a target he may or may not have seen open in the back corner of the end zone for a four-yard touchdown pass that traveled more than 30 yards through the air. Unfortunately, the Cavaliers have only seen but rare glimpses of that “electrifyingly good” version of Anthony Colandrea in the last several weeks.

Tony Elliott, at least partially, threw the offensive line under the bus in his postgame press conference on Saturday, citing the team’s inability to protect the quarterback as a reason why inserting Tony Muskett into the game would not have made much of a difference. While that point is debatable, it is true that UVA’s offensive line struggled mightily against SMU, giving up nine sacks and two more quarterback hurries, 12 tackles for loss for a total of -72 yards, and blocking for a ground game that averaged just 1.7 yards per carry. You’re not going to win a lot of games like that.

Something is seriously wrong with Virginia’s passing game and the responsibility is shared among several parties. Anthony Colandrea is scrambling too quickly before going through his reads, isn’t willing to throw receivers open, and hasn’t been able to hit on deep balls since early in the season. For their part, the Cavalier receivers have struggled to gain separation, nor have they been able to turn the short throws into big plays – Chris Tyree has not been nearly as impactful as hoped and Trell Harris is severely missed as a deep threat. We’ve already discussed the offensive line, which has to encourage Colandrea to stay in the pocket by keeping that pocket intact for more than a second or two. And of course, the coaches bear responsibility for not being able to adjust the scheme to put Colandrea and his receivers in better positions to connect, especially in the middle of the field. The outcome of all of this is that an SMU defense that came into this week ranked 13th in the ACC in pass defense managed to hold Virginia to a season-low 108 passing yards.

This isn’t surprising at this point, but it doesn’t make it any less of a problem. Virginia has had games of 73, 68, 7, and 65 yards rushing this season. Not being able to win the line of scrimmage is a big part of it, but Saturday added injury to insult as the Cavaliers lost Kobe Pace and Xavier Brown to injury, leaving Noah Vaughn as the team’s leading rusher in the game. Brown will be out for the rest of the season with a broken collarbone, while Pace is questionable for next week at Virginia Tech.

Virginia averaged 2.6 yards per play. That just about sums it up.

Virginia’s best stat of the game was that SMU running back Brashard Smith, who entered the week as the ACC’s third leading rusher averaging more than 100 yards per game and more than six yards per carry, managed just 63 total rush yards and only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. The bad news for Virginia is that SMU more than made up for that in the passing game…

The Mustangs threw for 323 yards through the air, including a series of big plays as the Cavaliers were carved up by Kevin Jennings and company. Still, UVA managed to bend, but not break until the late stages of the game, holding SMU to field goals and even coming up with a couple of turnovers to try to set up the Virginia offense with good field position.

For the second week in a row, the UVA defense played well enough to make this a competitive game, only to watch as the UVA offense continued to drop the ball. This game was 7-0 late in the first half and it was even still within reach early in the fourth quarter. John Rudzinski’s unit has been playing well for the last three weeks.

There were no catastrophic special teams miscues, but Will Bettridge missed a 41-yard field goal, Chris Tyree and Kam Courtney both tried to catch a kickoff and fumbled it (barely recovering), and the Cavaliers allowed a 48-yard punt return to Roderick Daniels Jr. Daniel Sparks had a good day punting the ball, so that’s nice.

Virginia finishes the season with a 2-4 record at home, losing those four games by a combined 71 points. The announced attendance on Saturday was 36,305, which was the second-lowest attendance of the season. It seems to be a cyclical problem of poor performances contributing to poor turnout and the resultant poor atmosphere meaning the Cavaliers essentially have zero home field advantage.

Virginia Football: Xavier Brown Out for Season With Collarbone Injury

By the Numbers: Breaking Down Virginia’s 33-7 Loss to SMU

VIDEO: Tony Elliott, UVA Football Players React to SMU Loss

Five Takeaways from Virginia Football’s 33-7 Loss to No. 13 SMU

Virginia Football Rolled By No. 13 SMU 33-7 in Home Finale

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