A common trap in scouting is becoming married to an initial opinion and not keeping an open mind to improvement. More times than not, that first instinct is the correct one, especially with quarterbacks. But players develop, both physically and mentally — Jayden Daniels’ maturation last season was another reminder of that.

That preachy preamble brings us to Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has worn different faces in his four years in college football.

The 2021 version of Ewers was the hotshot, mullet-donning, five-star recruit who banked more millions in NIL money than snaps played behind C.J. Stroud at Ohio State. The 2022 version, newly transferred to the Longhorns, showed flashes of promise but also had a few injuries and too many youthful mistakes. And last year we saw the slimmed-down version of Ewers. He still had his flaws but led Texas to the College Football Playoffs with a completion percentage up 14 points from the year prior.

So, what will 2024 give us? Based on his performance in Texas’ opener against Colorado State, it could be another jump in the 21-year-old’s development.

What made Ewers the No. 1 recruit in the 2021 high school class (with a “perfect” rating) was his arm talent — a snappy release, effortless velocity and feel for arc are all natural for him and often lead to special throws.

This touchdown pass from the opposite hash is a “you better be right” throw. If Ewers leaves it a little shallow or behind his target, it is, at best, an incompletion; at worst, it’s a 100-yard pick six. But he has the arm confidence to make it look routine — and head coach Steve Sarkisian has the confidence in his quarterback to call the play at the 2-yard line, anticipating tight-man coverage near the goal line.

One area that I want to see Ewers continue to improve this season is his eye manipulation to create passing windows.

On the second-and-12 play below, Ewers toys with the safety. Facing zone coverage, he starts his eyes to the left before moving his vision to the middle of the field. The Colorado State safety assumes Ewers is reading left to right and checking down for the easy 5-yard completion. With the trap set, however, Ewers works back to his left and fires a 15-yard seed to the receiver sitting down in the void, not allowing the safety to recover.

Even though Ewers had an outstanding performance in Week 1, there is always room for improvement. One of my concerns off the 2023 tape was his inconsistency with footwork and delivery, which led to the occasional misfire.

On this third-down throw, watch how far Ewers opens his hips with his front foot stepping towards the sideline instead of at his target, which pulls the pass away from the receiver.

Because of his arm, Ewers can fire strikes without picture-perfect mechanics — check the no-look touchdown pass he had against Colorado State. But more refinement with his base and mechanics should result in fewer missed throws.

Last season, Ewers led the Longhorns into Tuscaloosa and they left with a victory over Alabama, so the stage this Saturday in Ann Arbor won’t be intimidating. The tape Ewers puts together against the Wolverines and future first-rounders like cornerback Will Johnson and defensive tackle Mason Graham will be one of the first that NFL GMs and coaches watch during the evaluation process.

With his arm talent and confidence, Ewers has a strong foundation for a quarterback prospect who — I’m emphasizing again — is still just 21. Now in his third year in Sarkisian’s offense, his comfort level and continued development with the details should manifest themselves on tape and lead to more optimism about his NFL projection.

Four other matchups to watch in the Texas-Michigan game:

1. Texas WR Isaiah Bond vs. Michigan CB Will Johnson
2. Michigan TE Colston Loveland vs. Texas DB Jahdae Barron
3. Michigan RB Donovan Edwards vs. Texas S Andrew Mukuba
4. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. vs. Michigan Edge Josaiah Stewart

Three (more) must-see NFL prospects this weekend

1. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado (at Nebraska, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC)

No prospect is more under the NFL microscope this season than Sanders, who jumped out to a hot start in the opener against North Dakota State. He was dominant against the Huskers last season (393 passing yards, three total touchdowns), but this game is in Lincoln against a team with much better quarterback play (thanks to freshman Dylan Raiola).

An interesting note to keep in mind: Sanders has yet to throw an interception on the road at the FBS level.

2. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee (vs. NC State, 7:30 p.m., ABC)

In his two college starts (last year’s bowl game and the 2024 opener), Sampson has rushed for 257 yards on 32 carries (8.0 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns. His predecessor in the Vols’ backfield, Jaylen Wright, was known for his speed — but Sampson is actually faster, according to his high school track times (10.62-second 100 meters). Although sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava (who isn’t yet draft-eligible) is the star of the Tennessee offense, Sampson could be a draft riser.

easy as 1,2,3@dylans21527 #GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/ehD3Vxk25D

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) September 2, 2024

3. Ollie Gordon II, RB, Oklahoma State (vs. Arkansas, Noon, ABC)

Gordon rushed for 126 yards in the opener, but the most impressive number was his career-high 13 forced missed tackles. Gordon has unique stride control and vision to pick his way through levels of the defense and create explosive plays. Arkansas’ defense surrendered just seven yards rushing in Week 1 against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but Gordon and Oklahoma State will provide a much tougher test.

Stats of the week

• I received some pushback from readers for ranking Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan ahead of Missouri’s Luther Burden III at WR1 this summer. But I’m not feeling any regrets, especially after McMillan’s Week 1 performance for the ages. He finished with a school-record 304 receiving yards on 10 catches (30.4 yards per catch). The craziest stat? McMillan averaged 17.6 yards after the catch, including several impressive catch-and-run plays on which he forced missed tackles.

• Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty was my clear-cut No. 1 running back headed into the season, and he didn’t disappoint against Georgia Southern, finishing with 267 rushing yards (13.4 average) and six touchdowns. Jeanty had five rushes of 15-plus yards and posted 163 yards after contact — by far the most among all FBS players in Week 1. Boise State travels to Eugene this weekend to face a much better Oregon defense.

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• Penn State felt like the better team for basically its entire win over West Virginia, but left tackle Wyatt Milum was a bright spot for the Mountaineers before exiting at halftime with an injury. Going up against one of the best pass-rush units in the country (including my No. 2 prospect Abdul Carter), Milum didn’t allow a pressure. His lack of arm length is a legitimate concern, but his ability to anchor and control rushers is outstanding.

• The box-score scouts won’t be impressed by Ohio State edge rusher Jack Sawyer’s Week 1 performance (two tackles, zero sacks). But the advanced stats show that he led the Buckeyes with four pressures, and the tape reflects that impact — Sawyer consistently punished the Akron quarterback.

Prospect trending up …

At this time last year, Daniels was viewed as a third- or fourth-round pick before he ascended to the No. 2 pick. Could Miami quarterback Cam Ward follow a similar script? Time will tell, but Ward made a strong opening statement, posting a 74.3 percent completion rate (26 for 35) for 385 yards and three touchdowns in a win at Florida.

Ward’s elusiveness, quick release and various arm angles to sling the ball all over the yard make him unique. He does tend to drift and make things more difficult than they should be, although he has an instinctive feel for operating around pressure. If Ward continues to improve his roller-coaster decision-making and takes better care of the football, teams are going to be more open to stamping him with “NFL starter” draft grades.

Prospect trending down …

Ugh, Conner Weigman, what happened? The Texas A&M quarterback looked absolutely lost against a fast and physical Notre Dame defense. His wide receivers couldn’t get open and didn’t help create passing lanes, but Weigman’s confidence deteriorated at the first sign of trouble. Even though he only played in four games last year, Weigman had piqued the attention of NFL teams because of the promise he showed navigating the pocket and moving the sticks.

But all of that optimism quickly evaporated Saturday night. He clearly has talent, but Weigman isn’t ready to be in the early-round conversation for the 2025 NFL Draft.

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Rookie revisited

Stefon Diggs is no longer in Buffalo, and second-round rookie Keon Coleman is one of the players expected to fill that void in the passing game. And in a lot of ways, he is an ideal target for Josh Allen, because of his catch radius and the way he attacks the football.

Here is the summary from his scouting report in my 2024 NFL Draft Guide:

A one-year starter at Florida State, Coleman lined up inside and outside (motion-heavy) in head coach Mike Norvell’s up-tempo scheme. After putting himself on the NFL radar as a two-sport athlete at Michigan State, he transferred to Tallahassee in 2023 and led the Seminoles in receiving — and the nation in acrobatic “He did what?!” catches. Thanks to his basketball background, Coleman “big brothers” cornerbacks up and down the field using size, strength and athleticism. But what really separates him as a pass catcher is his dominance with the ball in the air. Not only can he overpower defenders at the catch point, but he also makes leaping acrobatic stabs appear routine with his natural body control and extraordinary catch radius. Overall, Coleman must develop more nuance to his route running, but his big-man twitch, physicality and ball-winning adjustment skills allow him to be a difference-maker. With continued refinement, he has the talent to be an NFL starter (similar in ways to Courtland Sutton).

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(Illustration: Eamonn Dalton / The Athletic; Photo of Quinn Ewers: Adam Davis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)