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Opinion: Sorry haters, Texas isn’t turning blue in this election – or anytime soon

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Opinion: Sorry haters, Texas isn’t turning blue in this election – or anytime soon



Polls show Republican Sen. Ted Cruz ahead by 4 to 5 percentage points. But political observers with experience in Texas think the race isn’t as close as portrayed.

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Something about Texas makes Democrats believe it will turn blue every election, despite so much evidence to the contrary.

Maybe Texas is the object of progressives’ fantasies and frustrations because of all the heavy-hitting Republicans with oil money, the presence of so much old-fashioned cowboy masculinity and its booming economy, which is the eighth largest in the world.

Texas is so conservative that if the state were to turn blue someday, it would be a massive indicator that America is veering significantly leftward.

Sorry, liberals. It will not happen this year. And likely not any time soon.

Texas isn’t just a red state, it’s a beacon of conservative values. It’s that way because that’s how those of us who call Texas home want it to be. We live in a place that reflects our views, and our views are reflected where we live − a symbiotic circle with liberty at its core.

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Trying to turn Texas blue is a futile exercise for Democrats. But it doesn’t seem to keep them from trying anyway.

Ted Cruz is cruising toward victory in Texas Senate race

Take the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Ted Cruz and Dallas Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.

Texas-based publications and national news outlets have been quick to observe how tight the Allred vs. Cruz Senate race has appeared to be in this election cycle.

I wrote about it in September, and it was tighter then than I expected.

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Allred boasts some great qualities: He’s personable and has worked hard to look like a moderate Democrat in a red state. (That’s the only way he could get elected in Texas.)

It’s a formula that’s been tried before, as anyone who has observed the failed political career of Beto O’Rourke knows.

With a few years on the El Paso City Council and then in the U.S. House of Representative under his belt, O’Rourke, known in Texas simply as “Beto,” ran for the Senate against Cruz in 2018 and lost by about 2.6 percentage points. Undeterred, he ran again against Gov. Greg Abbott in 2022 and lost handily, by more than 10 points.

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Texas Democrats hope Allred can do what O’Rourke could not do: Finally secure a Senate seat to represent liberals, the majority of whom reside in the Lone Star state’s urban areas.

But a Democrat hasn’t won statewide office in Texas in 30 years. That’s back when Bill Clinton was still in the White House and movie fans flocked to Blockbuster (look it up, Gen Z) on Friday nights.

For Democrats, O’Rourke’s losses were mystifying. He was charismatic and enthusiastically backed by Hollywood and the national media. But he ultimately failed for the same reason Allred will likely fail.

Allred, like O’Rourke, just doesn’t represent the views of most Texans.

Cruz better represents Texans

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Allred has presented himself as a bipartisan moderate to gain traction in Texas, but it’s a ruse. He’s more aligned with the progressive views of Vice President Kamala Harris than it appears at first glance.

While in Congress, Allred has shown himself to be a typical liberal who votes for measures that increase government spending and expand its reach into our lives, like the Inflation Reduction Act and the $2 trillion Build Back Better Act.

Cruz may not come across as likable as Allred or O’Rourke. He can be both nerdy and brash. He reminds me of that kid in class who tells the teacher she forgot to assign homework.

Cruz seems the most human when other conservatives interview him, an understandable trait given the media’s obvious scorn. But that also means many people don’t see a side of him that’s relatable and relaxed.

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Cruz is an easy target for the mainstream media to skewer, as is often the case with conservative politicians. But none of that means he has done a poor job or has failed to represent his constituents. At 45%, his approval rating is 5 points higher than his disapproval rating heading into Tuesday.

Cruz favors policies that lower taxes for Texas residents, improve local businesses and boost military contracts for Texas companies.

Even the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which endorsed Allred in his 2020 and 2022 House races, now endorses Cruz.

Polls show Cruz ahead by 4 to 5 percentage points. But political observers with experience in Texas say the race isn’t as close as portrayed.

Brendan Steinhauser, an Austin-based political consultant, told me: ” I think he is going to overperform the polling, and beat Colin Allred by a wider margin than many people expect.”

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Texas is the American dream

I interviewed Gov. Abbott a few weeks ago and asked him about the Cruz vs. Allred race and if Texas is turning blue after all. He chalked up Allred’s initial momentum to his head start running advertising campaigns well before Cruz.

“So there is a political and ideological shift in the state of Texas, but it’s different than what people think,” Abbott said. “Republicans in Texas are picking up larger swaths of the Hispanic vote. We’re converting people to the Republican side that historically has been Democrat.”

For a lot of Texans, our state is the epitome of the American dream: Here, we live life on our own terms, and liberty is the pursuit with happiness the result.

It’s not just Texas’ natural beauty and resources that make it incredible. It’s also the conservative ideas reflected in our state and local governments that allow its best attributes to shine. It’s not perfect, of course, and the lawmakers here aren’t without flaws. Even so, the emphasis on freedom comes from core conservative principles.

That’s why it will not turn blue any time soon.

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Texas isn’t great in spite of its conservatism, but because of it.

Nicole Russell is an opinion columnist with USA TODAY. She lives in Texas with her four kids. Sign up for her newsletter, The Right Track, and get it delivered to your inbox.



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Political fighting pervades Texas politicians’ responses to Austin shooting

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Political fighting pervades Texas politicians’ responses to Austin shooting


Texas elected officials and candidates’ response to the deadly shooting in downtown Austin on Sunday quickly turned political, as Republicans sharply criticized the country’s naturalization process and Democrats called for stricter gun reform laws.

Republicans’ rebukes of the immigration system came after media outlets identified the gunman, whom police killed within a minute of arriving at the scene, as a naturalized citizen from Senegal. The Department of Homeland Security said the man entered the United States on a tourist visa in 2000, became a lawful permanent resident by marrying a U.S. citizen in 2006 and was naturalized in 2013.

Shortly before 2 a.m. Sunday, the gunman killed two people and injured 14 others at a bar that sits among several popular nightlife venues on West 6th Street.

Many Texas Republicans, including Gov. Greg Abbott, suggested the gunman wasn’t properly backgrounded before he was granted U.S. citizenship, but did not provide details of what should have prevented his naturalization. When asked about his criminal history, DHS only said the man was arrested in Texas in 2022, after he was a citizen, for “collision with vehicle damage,” a misdemeanor crime typically given when someone leaves the scene of a wreck.

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The New York Post reported that gunman, 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne, was arrested for “illegal vending” in New York City in 2001. Citing unnamed sources, The Post said he was arrested in New York three other times between 2008 and 2016, but those cases are sealed. The Post did not report on whether he was convicted of any crimes.

At least one GOP candidate for attorney general has called for an audit into immigrants who are in the country legally.

“Audit all ‘legal’ immigrants’ papers and deport as many as possible,” Aaron Reitz said on X.

Reitz and others also voiced their opposition to Islam, which has become a key campaign pillar for some Texas Republicans competing in Tuesday’s GOP primary. The gunman wore a sweatshirt emblazoned with the words “Property of Allah” and a shirt with a design of the Iranian flag, according to the Associated Press. The shooting happened after the United States and Israel bombed Iran.

Austin police did not disclose a motive for the shooting, but the FBI is investigating it as a potential act of terrorism, the Associated Press reported late Sunday.

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The Texas chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations, an American Muslim civil rights group, condemned the attack in a statement Sunday and rejected any efforts to blame the whole community based on one individual’s action.

“We encourage elected officials, law enforcement, faith leaders, and community members to come together to support the families of the victims and reaffirm our shared commitment to public safety,” the organization’s statement said.

Abbott and state Rep. James Talarico, an Austin Democrat running for U.S. Senate, quarreled on X about the shooting. Abbott said that “allowing unvetted immigrants who are hostile to America, who are loyal to our adversaries like Iran, must end. This was an act of terror, James.”

“The way to end it is to end the current open immigration policies,” he continued. “You and your immigration policies would make America less safe.”

Talarico responded to Abbott by saying “dangerous people should not be allowed into the country. Dangerous people should not be allowed to get guns. Texans understand this — you apparently don’t.”

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Austin Police Association President Michael Bullock criticized Talarico on X for politicizing the incident.

“With all due respect sir – now is not the time. All of the information has not come out. How can policy be made on incomplete information?” he said. “The action that needed to happen did – officers heroically ended the violence.”

“This applies to all candidates and elected officials regardless of party,” he continued. ”Now is the time to focus on the victims and first responders impacted, not campaigns.”

U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, who is also running for the GOP nomination to be state attorney general, posted alleged details about the gunman’s immigration to America and naturalization. He said the gunman was granted legal residency during George W. Bush’s administration, “amid GOP celebration of the joys of ‘melting pot’ legal immigration.”

“This is why we are losing our country, our immigration system is a joke, and should PAUSE ALL immigration,” Roy said.

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Naturalization is the legal process of becoming a citizen after meeting certain requirements.

Denise Gilman, director of the Immigration Clinic at the University of Texas at Austin, said there has long been extensive vetting in the naturalization process, including criminal background checks. She also said immigrants can’t immediately become citizens without first going through prior steps, such as becoming a lawful permanent resident, that require scrutiny.

“Naturalization is just the last step of many steps that all require vetting,” she said.

Immigrants are eligible for naturalization if they are 18 years old or older and have been green card holders for at least five years (three years if they are married to a U.S. citizen). They also have to take tests proving they’re able to speak, read and write in English. As of last fall, the Trump administration added more requirements, such as a more rigorous civics test, and having to prove to an immigration officer that they are “a person of good moral character.”

When asked about Diagne’s reported arrests, Gilman said generally arrests can be considered when evaluating moral character or discretion but will not automatically bar green card status or naturalization. Certain convictions, however, may result in actual bars.

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“It really depends on the nature of the crimes involved,” she said.

Around 818,500 people were naturalized in the fiscal year of 2024, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which has not published 2025 data yet — nearly 10% lived in Texas. The total was a 7% decrease from 2023, the agency said. From 2022 to 2024, the country has added more than 2.6 million new citizens through naturalization.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, who is up for reelection this year, said on Fox News that the shooting underscores “the importance of vetting people before they come across the border,” and is an example of “what happens when people become radicalized.”

Cornyn blamed the Biden administration for having “open border policies that let who knows what into the country,” Cornyn said.

Texas Democrats, meanwhile, responded to the shooting by pushing for stronger gun laws, but did not provide specifics on what policies would have prevented the man from obtaining weapons. Austin police also did not release details on how the man obtained the two firearms they say he used in the shooting.

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Republicans control both chambers of the Texas Legislature and have routinely loosened gun restrictions while Democrats’ bills to curb access gain little traction.

Austin-based U.S. Reps. Greg Casar and Lloyd Doggett also denounced gun violence, but did not issue any specific policy proposals.

“We must end America’s gun violence epidemic,” Casar said in a post on X. “Americans should be able to have fun at a bar without it turning into an unspeakable nightmare like this one — and I will redouble my efforts in Congress to prevent the next tragedy like this.”

Doggett said: “Gun violence is preventable. This devastating loss of life was preventable. Until Republicans find the courage to say no to the [National Rifle Association] our country will be plagued with more tragedies.”

Disclosure: University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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South Texas Blood & Tissue sends blood units to Austin after 6th Street mass shooting

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South Texas Blood & Tissue sends blood units to Austin after 6th Street mass shooting


SAN ANTONIO — South Texas Blood & Tissue worked late last night and early this morning to prepare and send blood units to Austin in the wake of the mass shooting on 6th street early Sunday.

The Blood Emergency Readiness Corp (BERC) has been activated and an additional 140 units have been sent from various blood centers, including O negative and O positive.

The blood bank says community support is critical and community members are encouraged to donate at any local donor center.

3 dead, 14 injured in Austin mass shooting on 6th Street, suspect fatally shot by officers

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Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones shared her condolences, adding that commonsense gun reform may prevent such tragedies in the future.

I’m deeply saddened to hear of the mass shooting in Austin that killed and injured so many,” Mayor Jones said in a statement. “Let’s keep our neighbors to the north in our prayers, that those injured recover quickly and the families of the victims who were needlessly murdered are comforted. We must prevent such tragedies from happening through commonsense gun solutions. Thank you to the first responders who were at the scene and prevented further loss of life.

U.S. Congressman Joaquin Castro condemned the country’s gun violence in an X post saying in part “Congress must continue to work to end the scourge of gun violence in our country.”

San Antonio’s FBI office is also assisting the Austin Police Department in their investigation, officials shared at a press briefing this morning.

Special Agent Alex Doran said the joint terrorism task force is helping investigate potential early indications of terrorism.

“We have members from our Evidence Response team as well as our many other specialty teams, including our digital forensics folks that are on scene, helping to address the scene and gather additional evidence,” Doran said. “Obviously, it’s still way too early in the process to determine an exact motivation, but there were indicators that on the subject and in his vehicle that indicate potential nexus to terrorism. Again, it’s still too early to make a determination on that.”

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St. Andrew’s Prom Closet helps North Texas teens shine without the high cost

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St. Andrew’s Prom Closet helps North Texas teens shine without the high cost


It’s that time of year again – prom season. For many students, it’s a night to remember, but between dresses and other expenses, the costs can add up quickly. Every year, St. Andrew’s Methodist Church steps up to help ease the financial burden for families, offering free prom dresses and accessories to young women.

“I’m feeling very excited, very happy, you know it’s all like coming to me at once,” said Gabrielle Bennett, a high school junior.

Prom season is a moment many young girls look forward to, and finding the perfect dress.

Boutique experience for every shopper

“It was a lot of searching through a lot of dresses.. and seeing what fits, what doesn’t, what looks nice, and then you finally find one, and it fits perfect,” said Ally Atkins, a high school senior.

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For 17 years, St. Andrew’s Methodist Church has opened its prom closet to girls across North Texas, helping those who may not be able to afford the high cost of prom. This year, organizers hope to serve 1,400 shoppers. There are more than 5,000 dresses to choose from in different colors, styles, and sizes.

“Every young lady should feel special at prom. Every young lady deserves to be beautiful, and in some cases, some of these young ladies, this would not be possible,” said Kathy Moore, a Prom Closet chairman.

Community donations make it possible

The experience is designed to feel like a real boutique – from trying on dresses to grabbing the perfect shoes, bag, and accessories. Everything is donated.

“I had one yesterday that walked into our dress area, and she stopped and just said, ‘wow,’ and so right there, that moment, that’s why we do it,” Moore said.

Organizers said the event is made possible by community donations and dozens of volunteers, but they’re always looking for more help. Next year, they hope to serve even more girls, continuing their mission to make more prom dreams come true.

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“I want to thank this whole organization, I’m very grateful,” Bennett said.

How to participate

If you know someone who may need a prom dress this season, the Prom Closet is open until March 7. It is by appointment only. For more information, visit: https://standrewmethodist.org/prom-closet/



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