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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls

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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls


Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, said she is “seriously weighing” a Senate run in the Lone Star state as polls suggest she would be a favorite in the Democratic primary.

Newsweek reached out to Crockett’s campaign and office for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Democrats are facing tough math in next year’s Senate elections, forcing them to turn to conservative states like Texas to win a majority next year.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points—and North Carolina—which supported President Donald Trump by about three points—as their top opportunities to flip.

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But no other Republican senator seat in Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for reelection next year, meaning Democrats must compete in states like Texas, where polls point to a potentially competitive race, to have a chance at winning control of the chamber. Crockett’s potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, where several prominent lawmakers are already vying for the nomination.

What to Know

Crockett, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, has garnered national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump and other Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris named her as a Democrat who is “authentic” when discussing future leadership of the party.

She told Politico’s Dasha Burns this week that she is mulling a potential Senate bid.

“I am seriously weighing it to the extent that I am about to spend a lot of money to get data,” she said. “I’m a data-driven person. I will tell you that I personally believe that Texas needs to do something different if they want a different result. That’s just the bottom line.”

Crockett said she has had “multiple” conversations with a potential campaign director and is weighing who will be the Republican nominee. She does not believe any Democrat could defeat incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn.

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If she runs, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, in the primary. Representative Joaquin Castro and former Representative Beto O’Rourke have also been floated as potential candidates, though neither has jumped into the race yet.

Crockett led the most recent poll of the Texas Democratic primary race, which found her with 31 percent. Talarico and O’Rourke followed with 25 percent each, while 13 percent said they would vote for Allred. Six percent were unsure of who they would support.

In the general election polling, Crockett trailed Republican candidates.

Cornyn led Crockett by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent), while Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 2-point lead against her (49 percent to 47 percent). Representative Wesley Hunt led Crockett by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).

The poll surveyed 1,650 respondents from September 19 to October 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points.

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O’Rourke held a lead over Crockett in a University of Texas at Tyler poll. Thirty-one percent said they’d vote for the former Congressman, while 29 percent said they would cast their ballots for Crockett. Allred had 25 percent support, while Castro had 13 percent.

It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17 to September 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed similar results. In that poll, 27 percent of respondents said they’d back O’Rourke, while 26 percent said they’d vote for Crockett.

Allred, Talarico and Castro followed at 13 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The poll surveyed 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

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Kalshi’s betting market gives Talarico the best chance of winning the party’s nomination at 50 percent. It gives Crockett a 25 percent and Allred a 22 percent chance of winning the primary.

What People Are Saying

Crockett told Politico’s Dasha Burns: “By the time we start spending money, I think it’s less about people learning, ‘Oh there’s a Jasmine Crockett. Who is she?’ And it’s more about, ‘Do we like her enough to go out and knock doors, to make phone calls, to send text messages, to tell our neighbors, to get people riled up?’”

Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek earlier in October: “Both in rhetoric and actions, Crockett and O’Rourke are seen as really fighting against the Trump administration and Republicans more generally. That’s something that endears them to Democratic primary voters, who don’t really want to see a pragmatist.”

What Happens Next

Whether Crockett will announce a run for the Texas Senate is yet to be seen. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.



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Ted Cruz praises Trump, blasts Democrats as Texas takes center stage at CPAC

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Ted Cruz praises Trump, blasts Democrats as Texas takes center stage at CPAC


U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz warned on Saturday that Democrats would dismantle Republican victories and try to impeach President Donald Trump if they win control of Congress in November.

Speaking to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Cruz said Republicans have gained historic victories, from a sweeping crackdown on immigration to changes in the tax policy, since Trump took office in January 2025.

Democrats, Cruz said, “want to tear this country down.”

Cruz was among a slate of Texas lawmakers and politicians to address CPAC, one of the most influential conservative gatherings in the country, on the final day of the conference. They sought to frame Texas as both the nation’s leader and its ideological brainchild.

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Cruz portrayed the Republican party as a group of blue-collar workers and populists, blasting Democrats as coastal elites who are out of touch with the average American.

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Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, pauses as he shares his remarks during the final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference, on Saturday, March 28, 2026 at Gaylord Texan Resort and Conference Center in Grapevine.

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Shafkat Anowar / Staff Photographer

The senator did not mention Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative who is running to flip the Senate seat currently held by incumbent John Cornyn. Instead, he singled out California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who he joked “should be named Texas realtor of the year.”

“Nobody in history has sold more homes in the state of Texas than Gavin Newsom,” Cruz said.

Cruz is considered a potential Republican contender to run for president in 2028; Newsom is one of the leading contenders on the Democratic side.

In his address Saturday, Cruz repeatedly praised Trump — who skipped CPAC this year for the first time in a decade — on foreign policy, jobs and economic prosperity and national security.

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“The world is safer when the president is strong and our enemies are afraid,” Cruz said.

Republicans could face a difficult landscape in November, with the party in power typically losing seats in the House of Representatives and often the Senate in midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found Trump’s approval rating fell to 36%, the lowest number since he returned to the White House in January 2025.

In a statement, the Democratic National Committee’s rapid response director Kendall Witmer said rising gas prices, the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs have soured voters on Republicans.

“Donald Trump has broken one promise after another — and even his own supporters are fed up,“ Witmer said. ”Trump told Americans he would lower prices, create jobs, and put an end to forever wars — and he’s delivered on none of it.”

A group of attendees watch as Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks during the final day of the...

A group of attendees watch as Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks during the final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference, on Saturday, March 28, 2026 at Gaylord Texan Resort and Conference Center in Grapevine.

Shafkat Anowar / Staff Photographer

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Former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, who represented South Texas, said Republicans will lose in November if they do not make inroads with Latino voters, who she called the “future of the Republican party.” Flores urged the Trump administration to hire a Hispanic outreach coordinator.

“There is no future for the Republican party if we do not invest in the Hispanic community,” Flores said to little applause. “We are people of faith, family and hard work.”

U.S. Rep. Keith Self, a McKinney Republican, said the GOP must ban Sharia, the moral code laid out in Muslim scripture. Like many at the conference, Self warned that Sharia was seeping into Texas and the country, posing a risk to Americans.

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has said “preventing Sharia law” in Texas will be among his major priorities for the next legislative session.

“Sharia has no place in America,” Self said, calling it a “religion of the sword.”

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In previous statements, the Texas chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations has accused state leaders of a “publicity stunt” and “inventing imaginary threats.”

One speaker after another stressed the importance of Texas to the country’s future. On Friday, Trump ally Steve Bannon called Texas the “crown jewel of the union.”

“Where Texas goes, so goes the nation,” Bannon told the crowd to cheers. “And where the nation goes, so goes the world.”

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Texas’ Justice Carlton has turned baking passion into full-fledged business

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Texas’ Justice Carlton has turned baking passion into full-fledged business


FORT WORTH, TX — When she’s not on the court, Texas forward Justice Carlton is baking cookies. 

If you’re wondering if they’re good, just ask her teammates. 

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“They’re the best thing I’ve ever tasted,” senior Sarah Graves said. 

What started as baking for her teammates and managers for fun has grown into a full-fledged business: J’s Rollin In Dough.

After hours of practice on the basketball court and in the weight room, Carlton spends six hours a day baking cookies to fulfill her orders – or sometimes, simply for fun. 

“Anytime that I get out of practice around 5 I’m so happy because I just go home and bake,” Carlton said. 

Carlton’s love for baking dates back to her childhood. 

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“My mom worked over the summers, so when we were out of school it was so boring,” she said. “But the Easy-Bake Oven and the cake pop machine saved my life.”

Over winter break, she and her mom began discussing the possibility of creating a business of her own. They decided she could use her NIL money to form a limited liability company and obtain her food handlers license, so she did just that. 

In just three months of business, she’s received more than 100 orders and has gained nearly 1,200 followers on Instagram. She takes orders through a form linked in her Instagram bio. 

“It’s funny to see athletes do other things they are passionate about because they put the same focus and intensity into it,” Graves said. “And I can tell she has that for baking.”

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Last month, Carlton baked a batch of cookies for the “College Gameday” staff in hopes of gaining some media attention. The following month, the SEC Network staff ordered a batch at the SEC tournament and tried the cookies on live TV. 

“I used basketball as my platform, which (associate director of communications Jeremy Rosenthal) really helped me do,” she said. “I’ve just kind of been getting my name out there, so that’s been something that’s really fun.” 

The flavors offered are chocolate chip, cookie monster, cookies n’ cream, red velvet, brown butter salted caramel snickerdoodle and her newest flavor, sugar cookie. She also takes requests.

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“She made a banana pudding cookie recently,” freshman Aaliyah Crump said. “I think that one was my favorite.”

While many of her orders come from her teammates, she recently received an order from the Longhorns football team for a team party and for a neuroscience class celebration.

In the future, Carlton hopes to move her business outside of the kitchen and onto the streets. 

“I’ve put all my sales money aside and I want to start a food truck,” she said. “I think I would do something like a Crumbl Cookies on wheels.”

For now, Carlton has turned the oven off while she and the Longhorns prepare to face Kentucky in the Sweet 16 on March 28.

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Ansley Gavlak is a student in the University of Georgia’s Carmical Sports Media Institute.





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Body found in Colombia during search for missing North Texas flight attendant, mayor says

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Body found in Colombia during search for missing North Texas flight attendant, mayor says


Authorities in Colombia say a body has been found during the search for 32‑year‑old Eric Fernando Gutierrez Molina, an American Airlines flight attendant based out of DFW who disappeared last weekend after landing in Medellín with his crew. The city’s mayor posted on X Friday that there is a “very high probability” the body is Gutierrez. The flight attendant had been missing for several days, prompting an extensive search effort in the area. Officials have not yet confirmed the identity of the body.



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