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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls

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Jasmine Crockett’s chances of flipping GOP Senate seat in Texas—Polls


Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat, said she is “seriously weighing” a Senate run in the Lone Star state as polls suggest she would be a favorite in the Democratic primary.

Newsweek reached out to Crockett’s campaign and office for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Democrats are facing tough math in next year’s Senate elections, forcing them to turn to conservative states like Texas to win a majority next year.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats view GOP-held seats in Maine—which backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points—and North Carolina—which supported President Donald Trump by about three points—as their top opportunities to flip.

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But no other Republican senator seat in Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats are up for reelection next year, meaning Democrats must compete in states like Texas, where polls point to a potentially competitive race, to have a chance at winning control of the chamber. Crockett’s potential candidacy would shake up the Democratic primary, where several prominent lawmakers are already vying for the nomination.

What to Know

Crockett, first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2022, has garnered national attention for her opposition to President Donald Trump and other Republicans. Former Vice President Kamala Harris named her as a Democrat who is “authentic” when discussing future leadership of the party.

She told Politico’s Dasha Burns this week that she is mulling a potential Senate bid.

“I am seriously weighing it to the extent that I am about to spend a lot of money to get data,” she said. “I’m a data-driven person. I will tell you that I personally believe that Texas needs to do something different if they want a different result. That’s just the bottom line.”

Crockett said she has had “multiple” conversations with a potential campaign director and is weighing who will be the Republican nominee. She does not believe any Democrat could defeat incumbent GOP Senator John Cornyn.

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If she runs, she would face off against state legislator James Talarico and former U.S. Representative Colin Allred, the Democrats’ 2024 Senate nominee, in the primary. Representative Joaquin Castro and former Representative Beto O’Rourke have also been floated as potential candidates, though neither has jumped into the race yet.

Crockett led the most recent poll of the Texas Democratic primary race, which found her with 31 percent. Talarico and O’Rourke followed with 25 percent each, while 13 percent said they would vote for Allred. Six percent were unsure of who they would support.

In the general election polling, Crockett trailed Republican candidates.

Cornyn led Crockett by 6 percentage points (50 percent to 44 percent), while Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 2-point lead against her (49 percent to 47 percent). Representative Wesley Hunt led Crockett by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).

The poll surveyed 1,650 respondents from September 19 to October 1, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.41 percentage points.

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O’Rourke held a lead over Crockett in a University of Texas at Tyler poll. Thirty-one percent said they’d vote for the former Congressman, while 29 percent said they would cast their ballots for Crockett. Allred had 25 percent support, while Castro had 13 percent.

It surveyed 1,032 registered voters from September 17 to September 24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed similar results. In that poll, 27 percent of respondents said they’d back O’Rourke, while 26 percent said they’d vote for Crockett.

Allred, Talarico and Castro followed at 13 percent, 7 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

The poll surveyed 843 registered voters from August 27 to August 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

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Kalshi’s betting market gives Talarico the best chance of winning the party’s nomination at 50 percent. It gives Crockett a 25 percent and Allred a 22 percent chance of winning the primary.

What People Are Saying

Crockett told Politico’s Dasha Burns: “By the time we start spending money, I think it’s less about people learning, ‘Oh there’s a Jasmine Crockett. Who is she?’ And it’s more about, ‘Do we like her enough to go out and knock doors, to make phone calls, to send text messages, to tell our neighbors, to get people riled up?’”

Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek earlier in October: “Both in rhetoric and actions, Crockett and O’Rourke are seen as really fighting against the Trump administration and Republicans more generally. That’s something that endears them to Democratic primary voters, who don’t really want to see a pragmatist.”

What Happens Next

Whether Crockett will announce a run for the Texas Senate is yet to be seen. Forecasters give Republicans an advantage in the race. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as Likely Republican.



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More severe weather possible in North Texas on Friday

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More severe weather possible in North Texas on Friday


Severe storms are moving across North Texas Wednesday night with strong winds and hail in parts of Kaufman and Wise counties. A brief break arrives on Thursday before a higher threat for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes returns Friday.



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Democrat James Talarico wins Senate primary in Texas

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Democrat James Talarico wins Senate primary in Texas


AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — James Talarico did not mention Donald Trump when he greeted exuberant supporters at his primary night celebration.

But the newly minted Democratic U.S. Senate nominee in Texas is now a front man for the political opposition to the Republican president, not just in his own state but around the country. With his victory over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, the state lawmaker from Austin will test whether a smiling message of unity and change is enough to answer voters’ frustrations amid discord at home and now a war abroad.

READ MORE: What to watch in the consequential Senate primaries in Texas

“We are not just trying to win an election,” Talarico told supporters in the Texas capital early Wednesday. “We are trying to fundamentally change our politics, and it’s working.”

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The campaign provided “Love thy Neighbor” signs to people in the crowd.

The question for Talarico as he heads into the general election campaign is whether he can generate enthusiasm from voters who opted for Crockett because they saw her as the more aggressive fighter against Trump. Crockett conceded to Talarico on Wednesday morning, saying that “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person.”

Talarico will need all the help he can get in a Republican-dominated state where Democrats have gone decades without winning a statewide race. He will face either U.S. Sen. John Cornyn or state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who advanced to a Republican runoff on Tuesday.

Conventional political wisdom has it that Talarico was the stronger Democratic candidate in November, especially if Republicans nominate Paxton, a conservative firebrand who has weathered allegations of corruption and infidelity over the years.

WATCH: What’s at stake for Democrats and Republicans in the Texas Senate primaries

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Although Democrats are often choosing between moderate and progressive candidates in primaries, they faced a largely stylistic choice in Texas.

Talarico, 36, is a Presbyterian seminarian who quotes Scripture and rarely raises his voice. Crockett, 44, is an unapologetic political brawler who hammers Trump and other Republicans with acidic flourish.

Both have been reliably progressive votes in their current roles and telegenic faces across cable news and social media. Both represent generational change for a party with aging leadership. Each called for a more equitable economy and society. Each talked about bringing sporadic voters into their coalitions.

But Talarico’s broader argument is one that he could have made regardless of whether Trump was in the White House. Talarico’s campaign, he said often, is about addressing a country whose fundamental divide is not partisan but “top vs. bottom.” He regularly assails the rise in Christian nationalism. A former teacher, he has advocated for public education –- and against Texas conservatives’ policies to restrict curriculum and reshape how U.S. history is taught.

“He’s just a good friend and he’s a serious advocate for the disenfranchised and a serious policymaker,” said Lea Downey Gallatin, 40, an Austin resident who became friends with Talarico when they interned together for a congressman.

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Crockett promised Democrats that she could increase turnout within the party’s base, while Talarico campaigned on the theory that he could pull new people into the party’s tent.

“I can’t tell you how many have come up to me, whispering that they’re not a Democrat,” Talarico said as he campaigned in San Antonio in the closing days of the primary campaign. “I can’t tell you how many young people have said it’s the first time that they’ve ever voted, and that they are participating for the first time.”

As he strolled through the city, Talarico posed for pictures and greeted the singer of a Tejano band playing nearby. He later spoke to hundreds of people at the historic Stable Hall, a 130-year-old circular structure built for showing horses and now a converted event center. Hundreds more, unable to get into the full event, wound around the corner and along the sidewalk for blocks.

Inside, Lori Alvarez, a 39-year-old who works for a disaster relief nonprofit, said she supported Talarico because “he really listens to what we need.”

“I think he’s going to be able to make change in Washington for us,” said the married mother of three young girls.

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Yet that was not what attracted so many voters to Crockett.

Troy Burroughs, a 61-year-old Navy retiree, called Crockett “rugged” and “the only one I see fighting for us.”

He added: “I like how she doesn’t back down from anybody.”

Burroughs said some voters probably saw Talarico as more electable because he is more soft-spoken. But, he said, “We’ve got to get into the gutter with these folks, because that’s where they are.”

Talarico, meanwhile, keeps fighting his own way.

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“Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope,” he said Tuesday, “and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”

Barrow reported from Atlanta, Figueroa from Austin, Texas, and Beaumont from San Antonio.

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Big top, bigger mission: Inclusive Omnium Circus makes Texas debut in Garland

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Big top, bigger mission: Inclusive Omnium Circus makes Texas debut in Garland


Garland is about to witness a different kind of big top spectacle when Omnium Circus’ new show “I’m Possible” rolls into town for its first Texas performance on March 16 and 17 at the Atrium in Garland.

This inclusive circus was founded in 2020 by founder and executive director Lisa B. Lewis. She is no stranger to the circus world. Lewis grew up attending the circus with her grandfather, who was a Shriner. She would then later begin her own circus career at the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey’s Clown College.

A performer in a black suit rides inside a cyr wheel
against a stage lit in red. The letters of the OMNIUM
sign are in the background.

The idea for an inclusive circus came to her during one of her first experiences working as a clown. Lewis says that during her performance, she saw a row of grumpy teenagers.

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“They had their arms folded like they were mad and grumpy, and then my partner, whom I was working with, began telling jokes in sign language,” Lewis said. “How he knew they were deaf, I don’t know. The group of teenagers immediately started laughing, and the energy of the entire section shifted.”

Lewis said that in that moment, something clicked in her head, and she realized the power of inclusion.

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She would then go on to spread joy through the art of circus to special-needs kids. And then later, she created Omnium Circus.

“Circus elevates our belief in ourselves; it allows us to see the best of what humanity has to offer,” Lewis said.

A female with blue hair facing a man with a red hat
between them is a large bubble with...

A female with blue hair facing a man with a red hat
between them is a large bubble with smaller bubbles
inside of it. There is a golden light coming from
behind the bubbles.

Maike Schulz

Omnium is a Latin word meaning of all and belonging to all. The circus’ mission is to create joy and entertainment for all no matter the body you inhabit or the skin that you’re in.

The hour-long show in Garland will feature many inclusive acts, such as deaf singer-songwriter Mandy Harvey, an America’s Got Talent finalist and Golden Buzzer winner.

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The show will feature two ringmasters: deaf ringmaster Malik Paris will conduct the sign-language portion of the show, while ringmaster Johnathan Lee Iverson will handle the vocal portion. Iverson is the first Black ringmaster for a major U.S. circus, the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus.

A juggler wearing red and black gazes at his pins in
the air while cast members around him...

A juggler wearing red and black gazes at his pins in
the air while cast members around him look on in
amazement. The letters of the OMNIUM sign are in
the background behind the performers.

The show will also feature the six-time Paraclimbing World Cup champion, the world’s fastest female juggler, clowns from Dallas, plus more.

Details: March 16 at 7 p.m. and March 17 at 10:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.at the Atrium, 300 N. 5th Street, Garland. Tickets are $21.99 for youth and $27.19 for adults.



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