Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Texas
Exclusive: How Texas would vote if independence referendum held today
Texans would vote to remain part of the United States if an independence referendum were held in the Lone Star State, according to a new poll carried out exclusively for Newsweek.
The survey, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, asked 814 eligible voters in Texas whether they would support the state leaving the American Union to become an independent country and how they would vote in a hypothetical secessionist referendum on this question. Overall, 39 percent were against secession, 33 percent supported it, while the rest neither supported nor opposed it or were unsure. However, in a hypothetical referendum, 67 percent would vote for Texas to remain a state within the United States.
Pro-independence figures told Newsweek that the results demonstrated there was sufficient support for a vote on the issue. Political scientists were more divided, with one saying the results mirrored those of other results for successful secessionist movements in their relatively early stages, such as Brexit campaign in the United Kingdom. Others said that when presented with the potential costs of such a move, even supporters of secession would likely think twice.
There has been growing interest in what would happen if Texas did vote to become an independent nation, as it was for nine years between declaring independence from Mexico in 1836 and joining the United States in 1845. Such calls have been intensified by tensions between authorities in Texas and the federal government over how to handle migration across the Mexico border.
In the latest poll for Newsweek, asked “To what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose Texas succeeding from the United States and becoming an independent republic,” 17 percent of respondents said “strongly support,” 16 percent “support,” 21 percent “neither support nor oppose,” 12 percent “oppose” and 27 percent “strongly oppose” with another 7 percent unsure. The survey was conducted between 1 and 3 February online.
The respondents were also asked how they would vote in a referendum on the question of “Should Texas be a state within the United States or should Texas be an independent country?” with 67 percent replying “a state within the United States,” 23 percent opting for “an independent country” and the remaining 10 percent answering “don’t know.”
There was a notable political divided in how Texans answered the question. Thirty-six percent of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 said they’d vote for independence, along with just 6 percent of those who voted for Joe Biden. Of those who didn’t vote in 2020, 27 percent said they’d back independence, along with 35 percent of those who voted for third-party candidates.
However, in better news for Texas independence campaigners, when asked for their response to the statement, “If it left the United States, Texas could succeed as an independent country,” 22 percent chose “strongly agree” and another 22 percent chose “agree,” versus 17 percent for “strongly disagree” and 13 percent for “disagree.” Another 20 percent said that they “neither agree nor disagree.”
Daniel Miller, president of the pro-independence Texan Nationalist Movement, told Newsweek the survey demonstrates the need for a referendum on Texan secession from the Union.
“Contrary to the opposition narrative that support for Texit is non-existent, this poll shows that support for the issue is strong enough to warrant a public discussion and a vote on the issue,” he said.
“Even if one believes the accuracy of this poll, it shows that Texit is polling at the same support level as Brexit and Scottish Independence before their referendums were held. It also shows that the opposition to Texit is far weaker than they pretend.
“In the end, the only poll that matters is the one that all Texans get to participate in when Texit goes on the ballot.”
Miller also sent Newsweek a SurveyUSA poll of 625 Texan adults conducted between 21 June 2022 and 30 June 2022, which found 60 percent of respondents would support “Texas peacefully becoming an independent country along with other conservative states,” against 40 percent who were opposed.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek
Professor Matt Qvortrup, a political scientist who specializes in new state formation and author of I Want to Break Free: A Practical Guide to Making a New Country, told Newsweek the results mean the Texan independence movement should be taken seriously.
“These are not bad polls. In fact, they suggest that those who want ‘Texit’ are at the same level of support as those who supported Brexit in 2010—and of course that changed,” he said.
“In independence referendums, you often see that those who want to secede win over the campaign. In Scotland, the SNP (the Scottish National Party) came from 29 percent at the beginning of the campaign and ended on 45 percent.
“In Catalonia, Quebec, and in Scotland, support for independence was in the twenties when the issue was first discussed. This has in all cases moved within touching distance of independence. The polls may seem disheartening to those who believe that Texit is imminent. But these percentages should worry those who—like Governor Abbott—who are against ‘Texit.’”
Tensions between Texan authorities and the Biden administration have surged in recent weeks over how to handle illegal migration across the Mexican border. On January 22, the Supreme Court ruled federal agents could remove razor wire that had been placed at the border to deter crossings on the orders of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. This sparked a furious response from the Republican, who invoked the state’s “constitutional authority to defend and protect itself” and claimed it was being subject to an “invasion.”
Posting on his Truth Social website Trump, by some margin the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner, urged other GOP-run states to send their National Guards to Texas to support Abbott’s border controls.
James Henson, who heads the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek the results are more likely to encourage the defiance of current Texan authorities than trigger a real debate about independence.
“I think the results confirm what we’ve seen in the public discourse around the fantasy of secession: the idea of Texas secession taps into the symbolism of Texas independence, which speaks to a minority share of the state’s residents, especially when there is no consideration of the what the costs and trade-offs would be in such a scenario in either the poll question or the policy discussion, such as it is,” he said.
“A question about Texas independence or secession offers a cost-free opportunity to support a position laden with symbolic meaning (i.e. the idea of an independent Texas) and to express opposition to federal authority, a non-trivial minority of Texans’ will take that opportunity to answer a question in way that lets them do both.
“In terms of political impact, the propagation of such results are much more likely to encourage continued defiance of federal authority by the current crop of elected leaders in Texas than it is to result in any serious or impactful consideration of actual secession or independence.”
Joshua Black, a political scientist who is also part of the Texas Politics Project, said support for independence may well decrease if Texans start giving the question serious consideration.
“These results largely support the notion that the secessionist sentiment is a minority one in Texas,” he said.
“Even when presented in the most favorable of lights with no mention of potential violence or any tradeoffs whatsoever, fewer than a quarter of Texans seem to say they support secession from the United States when put to an up or down vote.
“It’s not unreasonable to expect support to decrease from this already low level if a real discussion began about the realities of Texas becoming an independent country, including the need for a far larger and more involved Texas government, as well as related impacts to trade, business, and even the movement of its citizens.”
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Continue Reading
A glamorous triathlete who drowned during an Ironman competition in Texas shared a photo from a swimming pool during a final training session just two days before the tragic race.
Brazilian influencer Mara Flávia, 38, shared the shot of her on the edge of a pool on Thursday — two days before she vanished during an open-water swim in The Woodlands Saturday morning.
“Just another day at work,” Flávia, 38, wrote in Portuguese alongside the pic of her wearing a matching pink swimming costume and cap.
The influencer, who had more than 60,000 followers online, chose the Robin S track “Show Me Love” for her post with the hashtags “triathlon,” “swimming” and “triathlete.”
Flávia vanished during an open-water swim in The Woodlands Saturday morning – the first of three grueling trials that competitors face during the 140-mile race.
Fire crews were told about a “lost swimmer” at around 7:30 a.m., one hour into the pro-female swim, KPRC reported.
Rescuers battled challenging visibility conditions before Flávia’s body was pulled from the water just after 9:30 a.m.
Montgomery County Sheriffs confirmed that the victim “drowned while participating in the swim portion of the event,” according to a statement. The office said its Major Crimes unit will continue the investigation “per normal protocols.”
Shawn McDonald, a volunteer, recounted the commotion before the swimmer’s body was recovered.
The dad, who volunteered with his daughter Mila, 12, said a group of younger volunteers in a kayak raised a flag and blew their whistles, “yelling for help.”
“I heard them say she went under,” he wrote on Facebook.
“I had Mila hand me the paddle and I started calling out to the athletes around us to stop so I could cross. I made my way over in about 30 seconds.
“When I got there and asked what happened, they all said the same thing: She went under. Right here. Right below us. The panic and fear on their faces won’t leave me for a long time.”
The volunteer recalled how one man had a “thousand-yard stare” on his face – before diving into the water in a desperate bid to find Flávia.
“I dove in immediately and began searching. After about a minute underwater, I felt her body with my foot. I surfaced, took what seemed like the deepest breath I have ever taken and went back down. She was gone.”
Boats with sonar combed the area – and McDonald was told to leave the water before the body was recovered.
“The victim was found in about 10 feet of water on the bottom of the lake,” Buck said. “The dive team accessed the victim, brought her up about 9:37 and then brought her over to the shore where she was pronounced DOS [deceased on scene],” Palmer Buck, the Woodlands fire chief, said.
It’s not known what caused the triathlete to go under the water.
Journalism grad Flávia previously worked in radio and television before pursuing a sporting career at age 28.
She previously twice won the Brazilian Grand Prix, and finished third in the Brasilia triathlon event.
Lady Vols basketball is looking to add more pieces to its 2026-27 roster with high-level experience. After completing her junior season at Texas A&M, Fatmata Janneh has emerged as a Tennessee target for her final year of eligibility. According to her Instagram story on Sunday night, she is in Knoxville.
With the Aggies a year ago, the 6-foot-2 forward averaged 11.4 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field. She also showed off an ability to hit from range, posting 1.1 makes per game on 33% shooting from three.
Perhaps Janneh’s biggest strength is her rebounding, though. She ripped down 9.7 boards per contest, good for the fifth-most in the SEC. This featured 2.6 rebounds on the offensive end per outing.
Janneh also averaged 1.1 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.4 blocks per game. She appeared in 27 games, starting in each.
More From RTI: How Watching The NCAA Tournament Drew Terrence Hill Jr. To Tennessee Basketball
Janneh started her career with a pair of seasons at St. Peter’s. As a sophomore, she averaged a double-double, posting 18.2 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. This made her a sought-after transfer in the portal before landing at Texas A&M as the nation’s leading defensive rebounder. As a freshman, she averaged 11.0 points and 8.0 rebounds.
The forward is from London, England, attending Barking Abbey Sixth Form for her prep ball. She would be the second player from England to join the Tennessee roster if she committed. UT also added the commitment of incoming freshman and former Boston College signee Irene Oboavwoduo this offseason.
So far, Caldwell and the Lady Vols have landed five transfers in this portal cycle. This features Liberty guard Avery Mills, Northern Arizona guard Naomi White, Stanford forward Harper Peterson and Georgia forward Zhen Craft and guard Rylie Theuerkauf.
Tennessee will also roster a pair of incoming freshmen. Four-star recruit and top-50 prospect Gabby Minus is staying true to her signing despite the roster overhaul and assistant coaching changes, along with the addition of Oboavwoduo.
AUSTIN (Texas Tribune) — Texas communities will need to spend $174 billion in the next 50 years to avert a severe water crisis, a new state analysis revealed Thursday. That’s more than double the $80 billion projected four years ago, when the Texas Water Development Board last passed a state water plan.
The three-member board presiding over the agency authorized the highly anticipated draft blueprint Thursday, the first administrative step toward adopting the water development board’s plans for the next 50 years. The plan, released every five years, encompasses the projects that 16 regional water planning groups in Texas said are the most urgent, water development board officials said.
The board’s latest estimates come as the state’s water supply faces numerous threats. Growing communities across Texas are scrambling to secure water, keep up with construction costs and cope with a yearslong drought. This week, Corpus Christi officials said the city may be just months away from declaring a water emergency. Meanwhile, other rural cities by the Coastal Bend are rapidly drilling wells to avoid a crisis. Residents in North Texas have also been bracing for groundwater shortages.
In an effort to restrain the crisis, lawmakers last year called an election in which voters approved a $20 billion boost for communities to use on water-related expenses. The water development board’s estimate shows that what lawmakers proposed on the ballot falls dramatically short of the needed cash, experts said.
“What this number tells me at the end of the day is if we don’t get serious about (funding water projects), there are going to be serious consequences for Texas,” said Perry Fowler, executive director of the Texas Water Infrastructure Network. “Even with the billion-dollar-a-year plan kicking in, it’s not going to be enough to offset the costs of the projects that are going to have to be executed.”
The new estimate accounts for 3,000 projects, from regional infrastructure upgrades to smaller endeavors such as drilling new water wells. Texas’ water supplies are expected to drop by roughly 10% between 2030 and 2080, according to the water plan. In that same time frame, the maximum amount of water communities can draw is also expected to decline by 9%.
The 80-page plan notes approximately 6,700 recommended strategies that would add water to the state’s dwindling portfolio. The recommendations — which are not accounted for in the cost — include developing new supplies from aquifer storage and recovery, brackish groundwater, desalination and recycled water. It also calls for water conservation.
The report suggested that if Texas does not implement the plans and recommendations, the state is one severe drought away from an estimated $91 billion in economic damages in 2030.
The state’s plan attributes a variety of reasons for the bigger price tag, such as higher costs of construction due to inflation, impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains, and a growing backlog of water supply projects.
“There’s a plan that can meet our needs,” said Matt Nelson, deputy executive administrator for the Office of Planning at the water development board, adding that they take their cues from the regional planning groups. “These are local projects that folks need to implement; they’re needed regardless of how they’re funded. It’s important to remember these are not top-down projects or state projects.”
Experts told The Texas Tribune that the board’s estimate is only a fraction of what Texas communities will need to ensure they have water in 50 years’ time, saying growth and development are outpacing the state’s ability to keep up.
“This is a bigger water plan in terms of volume strategies and capital costs compared to anything we’ve ever seen before,” said Jeremy Mazur, the director of infrastructure and natural resources policy at think tank Texas 2036.
Mazur suggested that the $174 billion only covers water supply projects and does not account for updating aging infrastructure, adding that the actual price could amount to a quarter of a trillion dollars.
“There’s a substantial magnitude with regard to the capital investment needed to both fix our aging and current systems and potentially develop the water infrastructure, water supply projects that we need.“
The report largely confirmed what many water experts have warned regarding threats to the state’s water supply, said Sarah Kirkle, director of policy at the Texas Water Association.
“Population growth, extreme weather, and economic development needs are all increasing demands on our infrastructure, and the state is going to need more water, sooner,” Kirkle said. “This is all while water projects are becoming more costly and complex because the easiest and cheapest local projects have already been developed.”
Fowler, with the infrastructure network, said he expects the Texas Legislature to take up the issue next year, when lawmakers meet for the 90th legislative session. He said the state should take a bigger role in ensuring that communities can afford their respective water projects.
“It’s going to have to be a top-down priority, there’s no way around it,” he said. “The challenges are so immense that it’s going to take all hands on deck.”
Texas residents have until the end of May to comment on the proposal. Water development board officials must adopt it by January 2027.
Alejandra Martinez contributed to this story.
This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at www.texastribune.org. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media organization that informs Texans – and engages with them – about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.
-
Health6 minutes agoDeaths from one type of cancer are surging among younger adults without college degrees
-
Sports12 minutes agoStephen A. Smith makes brutal gaffe while talking about the Golden State Warriors
-
Technology18 minutes ago6 crypto scam scripts criminals use to steal your money
-
Business24 minutes agoTim Cook steps back as Apple appoints hardware chief as new CEO
-
Entertainment30 minutes agoEddie Murphy’s son and Martin Lawrence’s daughter welcome first child: ‘That baby gonna be funny!’
-
Lifestyle36 minutes agoBoF and Marriott Luxury Group Host the Luxury Leaders Salon
-
Politics42 minutes agoGovernor’s race wildly unpredictable two weeks before Californians receive ballots
-
Sports54 minutes agoRod Martin, Raiders Super Bowl hero and USC standout, dies at 72