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Texas
Exclusive: How Texas would vote if independence referendum held today
Texans would vote to remain part of the United States if an independence referendum were held in the Lone Star State, according to a new poll carried out exclusively for Newsweek.
The survey, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, asked 814 eligible voters in Texas whether they would support the state leaving the American Union to become an independent country and how they would vote in a hypothetical secessionist referendum on this question. Overall, 39 percent were against secession, 33 percent supported it, while the rest neither supported nor opposed it or were unsure. However, in a hypothetical referendum, 67 percent would vote for Texas to remain a state within the United States.
Pro-independence figures told Newsweek that the results demonstrated there was sufficient support for a vote on the issue. Political scientists were more divided, with one saying the results mirrored those of other results for successful secessionist movements in their relatively early stages, such as Brexit campaign in the United Kingdom. Others said that when presented with the potential costs of such a move, even supporters of secession would likely think twice.
There has been growing interest in what would happen if Texas did vote to become an independent nation, as it was for nine years between declaring independence from Mexico in 1836 and joining the United States in 1845. Such calls have been intensified by tensions between authorities in Texas and the federal government over how to handle migration across the Mexico border.
In the latest poll for Newsweek, asked “To what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose Texas succeeding from the United States and becoming an independent republic,” 17 percent of respondents said “strongly support,” 16 percent “support,” 21 percent “neither support nor oppose,” 12 percent “oppose” and 27 percent “strongly oppose” with another 7 percent unsure. The survey was conducted between 1 and 3 February online.
The respondents were also asked how they would vote in a referendum on the question of “Should Texas be a state within the United States or should Texas be an independent country?” with 67 percent replying “a state within the United States,” 23 percent opting for “an independent country” and the remaining 10 percent answering “don’t know.”
There was a notable political divided in how Texans answered the question. Thirty-six percent of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 said they’d vote for independence, along with just 6 percent of those who voted for Joe Biden. Of those who didn’t vote in 2020, 27 percent said they’d back independence, along with 35 percent of those who voted for third-party candidates.
However, in better news for Texas independence campaigners, when asked for their response to the statement, “If it left the United States, Texas could succeed as an independent country,” 22 percent chose “strongly agree” and another 22 percent chose “agree,” versus 17 percent for “strongly disagree” and 13 percent for “disagree.” Another 20 percent said that they “neither agree nor disagree.”
Daniel Miller, president of the pro-independence Texan Nationalist Movement, told Newsweek the survey demonstrates the need for a referendum on Texan secession from the Union.
“Contrary to the opposition narrative that support for Texit is non-existent, this poll shows that support for the issue is strong enough to warrant a public discussion and a vote on the issue,” he said.
“Even if one believes the accuracy of this poll, it shows that Texit is polling at the same support level as Brexit and Scottish Independence before their referendums were held. It also shows that the opposition to Texit is far weaker than they pretend.
“In the end, the only poll that matters is the one that all Texans get to participate in when Texit goes on the ballot.”
Miller also sent Newsweek a SurveyUSA poll of 625 Texan adults conducted between 21 June 2022 and 30 June 2022, which found 60 percent of respondents would support “Texas peacefully becoming an independent country along with other conservative states,” against 40 percent who were opposed.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek
Professor Matt Qvortrup, a political scientist who specializes in new state formation and author of I Want to Break Free: A Practical Guide to Making a New Country, told Newsweek the results mean the Texan independence movement should be taken seriously.
“These are not bad polls. In fact, they suggest that those who want ‘Texit’ are at the same level of support as those who supported Brexit in 2010—and of course that changed,” he said.
“In independence referendums, you often see that those who want to secede win over the campaign. In Scotland, the SNP (the Scottish National Party) came from 29 percent at the beginning of the campaign and ended on 45 percent.
“In Catalonia, Quebec, and in Scotland, support for independence was in the twenties when the issue was first discussed. This has in all cases moved within touching distance of independence. The polls may seem disheartening to those who believe that Texit is imminent. But these percentages should worry those who—like Governor Abbott—who are against ‘Texit.’”
Tensions between Texan authorities and the Biden administration have surged in recent weeks over how to handle illegal migration across the Mexican border. On January 22, the Supreme Court ruled federal agents could remove razor wire that had been placed at the border to deter crossings on the orders of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. This sparked a furious response from the Republican, who invoked the state’s “constitutional authority to defend and protect itself” and claimed it was being subject to an “invasion.”
Posting on his Truth Social website Trump, by some margin the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner, urged other GOP-run states to send their National Guards to Texas to support Abbott’s border controls.
James Henson, who heads the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek the results are more likely to encourage the defiance of current Texan authorities than trigger a real debate about independence.
“I think the results confirm what we’ve seen in the public discourse around the fantasy of secession: the idea of Texas secession taps into the symbolism of Texas independence, which speaks to a minority share of the state’s residents, especially when there is no consideration of the what the costs and trade-offs would be in such a scenario in either the poll question or the policy discussion, such as it is,” he said.
“A question about Texas independence or secession offers a cost-free opportunity to support a position laden with symbolic meaning (i.e. the idea of an independent Texas) and to express opposition to federal authority, a non-trivial minority of Texans’ will take that opportunity to answer a question in way that lets them do both.
“In terms of political impact, the propagation of such results are much more likely to encourage continued defiance of federal authority by the current crop of elected leaders in Texas than it is to result in any serious or impactful consideration of actual secession or independence.”
Joshua Black, a political scientist who is also part of the Texas Politics Project, said support for independence may well decrease if Texans start giving the question serious consideration.
“These results largely support the notion that the secessionist sentiment is a minority one in Texas,” he said.
“Even when presented in the most favorable of lights with no mention of potential violence or any tradeoffs whatsoever, fewer than a quarter of Texans seem to say they support secession from the United States when put to an up or down vote.
“It’s not unreasonable to expect support to decrease from this already low level if a real discussion began about the realities of Texas becoming an independent country, including the need for a far larger and more involved Texas government, as well as related impacts to trade, business, and even the movement of its citizens.”
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Charles Thompson, who once briefly escaped custody after being sentenced to death, is scheduled to be executed Wednesday evening for the 1998 double murder of his former girlfriend and her friend.
Thompson had gotten into an altercation at his then-girlfriend Dennise Hayslip’s apartment in Houston with her and her friend, Darren Cain, before a police officer escorted Thompson off the property, according to court records. Early the next morning, Thompson returned to the apartment, killing Cain and shooting Hayslip in the mouth. Hayslip was life-flighted to a nearby hospital, where she died a week later.
Thompson was charged with capital murder for killing Cain and Hayslip and sentenced to death in 1999. In 2001, his death sentence was vacated by the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals after judges ruled the Harris County District Attorney’s Office had unconstitutionally used an undercover investigator to obtain evidence for the trial. Thompson was given a new sentencing hearing, where a jury again sentenced him to death in 2005.
While Thompson does not dispute shooting Cain, he has said the man attacked him first and he acted defensively. Thompson has also asserted that Hayslip would have survived her wounds, which partially severed her tongue, had it not been for her receiving an improper intubation while at the hospital.
Days after his resentencing, Thompson escaped from the Harris County Jail by switching into the civilian clothes he had worn to resentencing hearings and posed as an employee with the state Attorney General’s Office. The escape led to a three-day manhunt that ended with Thompson being caught drunk in Louisiana.
Thompson filed a new appeal and a request for a stay of execution with the CCA on Jan. 21 that called into question the efficacy of his legal counsel during trial. It also asserted Thompson’s previous claim that the hospital’s alleged improper intubation of Hayslip ultimately killed her. Included in the new filing was an affidavit from a doctor who testified during Thompson’s trial about Hayslip’s cause of death, stating she would withdraw her trial testimony and instead assert medical complications were the cause of death.
The CCA has yet to rule on the stay request or the appeal. The U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear a previous federal habeas corpus appeal from Thompson in 2021.
If executed, Thompson will be the first person put to death in the United States this year, and is one of four men in Texas with currently scheduled executions. Thompson will also be the 136th person Harris County has executed since the death penalty was reinstated in 1976. The county has executed more people than any other state, and in 2025 sentenced its 300th person to death.
Texas’ use of the death penalty has dwindled for years as new death sentences and executions per year have remained in the single digits for more than a decade.
Cedric Ricks is the next person scheduled for execution in Texas on March 11. Ricks was convicted of capital murder in 2014 for stabbing his common-law wife and her 8-year-old son to death in their Fort Worth apartment.
Roads across North Texas have been in poor condition since temperatures dropped Friday night, and while TXDOT and local crews have been working around the clock, many neighborhoods are still dealing with sheets of ice.
In Fort Worth, the difference between major highways and city streets is easy to see. I‑30 looked nearly clear after TXDOT began pretreating it last Wednesday, well before any ice or snow arrived. But nearby city‑maintained roads remained slick. Each city and county is responsible for its own streets, which means some neighborhoods are still waiting for crews to reach them.
Warmer temperatures Tuesday helped speed up the process.
Fort Worth and Tarrant County crews spent the day spreading salt and sand to give drivers traction. The city said it doesn’t have traditional snowplows like those used in northern states, but workers have been using skid steers to scrape away the thick layer of ice that’s been stuck to the pavement.
Road conditions improved significantly throughout the day, but officials urged drivers to stay cautious.
City urges drivers to slow down
“If you are needing to leave your home and get out on the neighborhood streets and on to roads to travel, please go very slowly,” said Lara Ingram, a spokesperson for Fort Worth’s Transportation & Public Works Department. “Some neighborhood roads may be 35 mph. Fifteen to 20 mph is fast enough.”
Crews focused Tuesday on hospitals, major thoroughfares and the area around Dickies Arena to keep the Stock Show & Rodeo accessible.
The city is asking residents to remain patient as workers continue moving through neighborhoods.
Editor’s note: To help readers learn more about primary candidates, The Texas Tribune is sharing background information on top candidates. In particularly crowded races, we focused on candidates who have political experience or prominence. For a full list of the candidates running in this race view our primary ballot page. For more information on the primaries and the voting process, check out our voter guide here.
About this seat: The Texas Agriculture Commissioner is the chief advocate for Texas’s agriculture industry. Under the commissioner’s purview, the Texas Department of Agriculture regulates the state’s agriculture industry, including cattle, grain, plants, pesticides, hemp and organic operations. The department provides agribusiness support, promotes Texas products and advocates for policies at the state and federal level that help farmers and ranchers. It also administers the National School Lunch Program to public schools. The department works on economic development in rural areas and provides disaster relief to farmers. The department also ensures that price scanners and scales are all accurate to ensure consumers are paying an accurate price for these items when they purchase them.
What’s at stake: Agriculture is the second largest industry in the state and Texas is home to more than 230,000 farms, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In 2024, it was the 6th largest state exporter of agricultural products. Farmers and ranchers are on the frontlines of economic pressures, the effects of climate change, and labor and supply chain disruptions and it’s the responsibility of the state agriculture commissioner to regulate farmers from a consumer protection standpoint, while providing support and funding to farms that are economic engines in rural areas of the state.
Candidates at a Glance:
💰 Campaign finance:
💰 Major donors this cycle:
- Philip Oshotse, owner of Houston African grocery store – $60,000
- Joe Cavender, owner of Cavender’s boots – $5,000
- Stan Graff, owner at El Dorado Motors – $10,000
- Kent Hance, former U.S. Rep. and chancellor of Texas Tech University System – $10,000
Experience:
-
First elected agriculture commissioner in 2014, and reelected twice in 2018 and 2022
-
12 years in the Texas House of Representatives
-
Graduate of Tarleton State University in Stephenville, where he lives and owns a tree nursery
-
Breeds horses and is a rodeo cowboy
Political ideology: Miller is known as a staunch MAGA conservative with a fiery personality and a loyal supporter of President Donald Trump. He is a Christian who often rails against Islam and leftist politics on social media. He’s against diversity, equity and inclusion policies and in 2023, he ordered employees to dress “in a manner consistent with their biological gender,” a move that was viewed as anti-transgender.
Policy stances:
-
Increasing water security in Texas
-
Defending agriculture from invasive pests and disease
-
Enhancing local food pride through the agency’s Go Texan brand program
-
Ensure farm and ranchland is not affected by the expansion of data centers in Texas
-
Supports legalization of marijuana for medical purposes
In the news:
Endorsements:
-
Railroad Commissioner Wayne Christian
-
Ted Nugent, a guitarist and singer
How to contact or learn more:
campaign@sidmiller.com
6407 S US Hwy 377
Stephenville, TX 76401
💰 Campaign finance:
💰 Major donors this cycle:
- Houston furniture store owner Mattress Mack – $10,000
- Sen. Kevin Sparks, a Republican from Midland and family – $13,000
- The Saulsbury Family, owners of Saulsbury Industries oil and gas company in Odessa and former donors of Sid Miller’s campaign – $25,000
Experience:
-
Texan business and ranch owner
-
Served for six years in the U.S. Naval Reserve before he graduated from Texas State University
-
He and his wife founded a honey company called Nature Nate’s, which became famous for its raw and unfiltered honey. He sold the company in 2021 and resigned as CEO in 2024 to run for agriculture commissioner.
-
Previously worked as communications director for E3 Partners, an evangelist ministry organization that establishes new Christian congregations around the world
Political ideology: Sheets is a conservative Christian and self-declared member of the MAHA (Make American Healthy Again) movement, which was inspired by Trump administration Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nature Nate’s Honey emphasized testing to ensure the honey didn’t contain pesticides or herbicides, and Sheets has said his experience leading the company shaped his views on healthy eating.
Policy stances:
-
Helping Texas farmers grow and produce clean and healthy food at home and in the state’s public schools
-
Boost job opportunities in the agriculture industry in rural areas of the state
-
Work with the Legislature to ensure Texas has the power to investigate agro terrorists who might spread pathogens that could damage state agriculture production
In the news:
Endorsements:
-
Texas Farm Bureau, Texas Cattlefeeders Association
-
Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, a Republican from Pennsylvania
How to contact or learn more:
campaign@natesheets.com
💰 Campaign finance:
💰 Major donors this cycle:
- Jim Hightower, former Texas Agriculture Commissioner from 1983 to 1991 – $1,000
Experience:
-
Grew up working on his family’s ranch in Lampasas
-
Fair trade organizer for the Trade Justice Education Fund, a left-leaning non-profit that promotes awareness of the impact of trade on public health and the environment.
Political ideology: Tucker spent his early career working as a Democratic political campaign organizer. He is an active member of the Texas Democrats and a member of the Texas Progressive Caucus.
Policy stances:
-
Preserving family farms
-
Lowering the cost of food and removing chemicals from food
-
Stop the spread of microplastics and regulate dangerous chemicals like PFAS
-
Protect Texas from the growth of data centers across the state and “bust monopolies”
Endorsements:
-
U.S. Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Democrat from Maryland
-
Many Democratic state representatives
How to contact or learn more:
info@claytontuckertx.com
PO Box 1059
Lampasas, TX 76550
Disclosure: Texas Cattle Feeders Association and Texas Tech University System have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
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