Uncommon Knowledge
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Texans would vote to remain part of the United States if an independence referendum were held in the Lone Star State, according to a new poll carried out exclusively for Newsweek.
The survey, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, asked 814 eligible voters in Texas whether they would support the state leaving the American Union to become an independent country and how they would vote in a hypothetical secessionist referendum on this question. Overall, 39 percent were against secession, 33 percent supported it, while the rest neither supported nor opposed it or were unsure. However, in a hypothetical referendum, 67 percent would vote for Texas to remain a state within the United States.
Pro-independence figures told Newsweek that the results demonstrated there was sufficient support for a vote on the issue. Political scientists were more divided, with one saying the results mirrored those of other results for successful secessionist movements in their relatively early stages, such as Brexit campaign in the United Kingdom. Others said that when presented with the potential costs of such a move, even supporters of secession would likely think twice.
There has been growing interest in what would happen if Texas did vote to become an independent nation, as it was for nine years between declaring independence from Mexico in 1836 and joining the United States in 1845. Such calls have been intensified by tensions between authorities in Texas and the federal government over how to handle migration across the Mexico border.
In the latest poll for Newsweek, asked “To what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose Texas succeeding from the United States and becoming an independent republic,” 17 percent of respondents said “strongly support,” 16 percent “support,” 21 percent “neither support nor oppose,” 12 percent “oppose” and 27 percent “strongly oppose” with another 7 percent unsure. The survey was conducted between 1 and 3 February online.
The respondents were also asked how they would vote in a referendum on the question of “Should Texas be a state within the United States or should Texas be an independent country?” with 67 percent replying “a state within the United States,” 23 percent opting for “an independent country” and the remaining 10 percent answering “don’t know.”
There was a notable political divided in how Texans answered the question. Thirty-six percent of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 said they’d vote for independence, along with just 6 percent of those who voted for Joe Biden. Of those who didn’t vote in 2020, 27 percent said they’d back independence, along with 35 percent of those who voted for third-party candidates.
However, in better news for Texas independence campaigners, when asked for their response to the statement, “If it left the United States, Texas could succeed as an independent country,” 22 percent chose “strongly agree” and another 22 percent chose “agree,” versus 17 percent for “strongly disagree” and 13 percent for “disagree.” Another 20 percent said that they “neither agree nor disagree.”
Daniel Miller, president of the pro-independence Texan Nationalist Movement, told Newsweek the survey demonstrates the need for a referendum on Texan secession from the Union.
“Contrary to the opposition narrative that support for Texit is non-existent, this poll shows that support for the issue is strong enough to warrant a public discussion and a vote on the issue,” he said.
“Even if one believes the accuracy of this poll, it shows that Texit is polling at the same support level as Brexit and Scottish Independence before their referendums were held. It also shows that the opposition to Texit is far weaker than they pretend.
“In the end, the only poll that matters is the one that all Texans get to participate in when Texit goes on the ballot.”
Miller also sent Newsweek a SurveyUSA poll of 625 Texan adults conducted between 21 June 2022 and 30 June 2022, which found 60 percent of respondents would support “Texas peacefully becoming an independent country along with other conservative states,” against 40 percent who were opposed.
Photo-illustration by Newsweek
Professor Matt Qvortrup, a political scientist who specializes in new state formation and author of I Want to Break Free: A Practical Guide to Making a New Country, told Newsweek the results mean the Texan independence movement should be taken seriously.
“These are not bad polls. In fact, they suggest that those who want ‘Texit’ are at the same level of support as those who supported Brexit in 2010—and of course that changed,” he said.
“In independence referendums, you often see that those who want to secede win over the campaign. In Scotland, the SNP (the Scottish National Party) came from 29 percent at the beginning of the campaign and ended on 45 percent.
“In Catalonia, Quebec, and in Scotland, support for independence was in the twenties when the issue was first discussed. This has in all cases moved within touching distance of independence. The polls may seem disheartening to those who believe that Texit is imminent. But these percentages should worry those who—like Governor Abbott—who are against ‘Texit.’”
Tensions between Texan authorities and the Biden administration have surged in recent weeks over how to handle illegal migration across the Mexican border. On January 22, the Supreme Court ruled federal agents could remove razor wire that had been placed at the border to deter crossings on the orders of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. This sparked a furious response from the Republican, who invoked the state’s “constitutional authority to defend and protect itself” and claimed it was being subject to an “invasion.”
Posting on his Truth Social website Trump, by some margin the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner, urged other GOP-run states to send their National Guards to Texas to support Abbott’s border controls.
James Henson, who heads the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek the results are more likely to encourage the defiance of current Texan authorities than trigger a real debate about independence.
“I think the results confirm what we’ve seen in the public discourse around the fantasy of secession: the idea of Texas secession taps into the symbolism of Texas independence, which speaks to a minority share of the state’s residents, especially when there is no consideration of the what the costs and trade-offs would be in such a scenario in either the poll question or the policy discussion, such as it is,” he said.
“A question about Texas independence or secession offers a cost-free opportunity to support a position laden with symbolic meaning (i.e. the idea of an independent Texas) and to express opposition to federal authority, a non-trivial minority of Texans’ will take that opportunity to answer a question in way that lets them do both.
“In terms of political impact, the propagation of such results are much more likely to encourage continued defiance of federal authority by the current crop of elected leaders in Texas than it is to result in any serious or impactful consideration of actual secession or independence.”
Joshua Black, a political scientist who is also part of the Texas Politics Project, said support for independence may well decrease if Texans start giving the question serious consideration.
“These results largely support the notion that the secessionist sentiment is a minority one in Texas,” he said.
“Even when presented in the most favorable of lights with no mention of potential violence or any tradeoffs whatsoever, fewer than a quarter of Texans seem to say they support secession from the United States when put to an up or down vote.
“It’s not unreasonable to expect support to decrease from this already low level if a real discussion began about the realities of Texas becoming an independent country, including the need for a far larger and more involved Texas government, as well as related impacts to trade, business, and even the movement of its citizens.”
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Voters deserve better than scorched-earth partisan politics that divide our country.
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In 35 years as a loyal Republican, I watched my party become unrecognizable. Now, Sen. John Cornyn’s transformation from principled conservative to full-throated Donald Trump sycophant is complete.
In the span of a week, Cornyn reversed his longstanding defense of the Senate filibuster, trying to appease Trump and secure his coveted endorsement. He also co-sponsored the SAVE America Act, which would force Texans to present passports or birth certificates that match their current surnames. Texas voters deserve better than scorched-earth partisan politics that divide our country and paralyze effective governance.
– Malcolm Jacobson, The Woodlands
I am sick and tired of hearing about voter fraud. There isn’t any to speak of, and what has been found was not perpetrated by people in the country illegally. Donald Trump has consistently claimed that there’s rampant fraud. Please show us your evidence, Mr. President. You can’t, because there is none, but people still believe him.
Please wake up to what this man is doing to our country.
– Zelda L Blalock, North Richland Hills
Texas is nearing its 600th execution since the death penalty was reinstated, with three already this year and three more scheduled. It should give us pause to know that four of the offenders are not white.
Legislators and district attorneys should step up, lock up the worst of the worst criminals and end the senseless barbaric practice of the state killing in our name.
– Bob Michael, Grapevine
For more than 80 years, nuclear deterrence has kept the world safe from nuclear war, largely because of the power of the U.S. military, skilled diplomacy and moral leadership. Even hostile nations have understood the risks of nuclear engagement.
In just a few weeks, the United States’ war on Iran has cost billions, displaced millions and killed thousands of civilians, according to United Nations and Iranian officials. U.S. military stockpiles are degraded, energy prices are rising and the Iranian people are suffering increased repression.
The Iranian regime and military have been set back, but the country still has much enriched uranium and an even stronger incentive to develop nuclear weapons. It is difficult to understand the need for or benefits of this war.
– Karen Myers, Fort Worth
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz warned on Saturday that Democrats would dismantle Republican victories and try to impeach President Donald Trump if they win control of Congress in November.
Speaking to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Grapevine, Cruz said Republicans have gained historic victories, from a sweeping crackdown on immigration to changes in the tax policy, since Trump took office in January 2025.
Democrats, Cruz said, “want to tear this country down.”
Cruz was among a slate of Texas lawmakers and politicians to address CPAC, one of the most influential conservative gatherings in the country, on the final day of the conference. They sought to frame Texas as both the nation’s leader and its ideological brainchild.
Cruz portrayed the Republican party as a group of blue-collar workers and populists, blasting Democrats as coastal elites who are out of touch with the average American.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, pauses as he shares his remarks during the final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference, on Saturday, March 28, 2026 at Gaylord Texan Resort and Conference Center in Grapevine.
Shafkat Anowar / Staff Photographer
The senator did not mention Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative who is running to flip the Senate seat currently held by incumbent John Cornyn. Instead, he singled out California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who he joked “should be named Texas realtor of the year.”
“Nobody in history has sold more homes in the state of Texas than Gavin Newsom,” Cruz said.
Cruz is considered a potential Republican contender to run for president in 2028; Newsom is one of the leading contenders on the Democratic side.
In his address Saturday, Cruz repeatedly praised Trump — who skipped CPAC this year for the first time in a decade — on foreign policy, jobs and economic prosperity and national security.
“The world is safer when the president is strong and our enemies are afraid,” Cruz said.
Republicans could face a difficult landscape in November, with the party in power typically losing seats in the House of Representatives and often the Senate in midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found Trump’s approval rating fell to 36%, the lowest number since he returned to the White House in January 2025.
In a statement, the Democratic National Committee’s rapid response director Kendall Witmer said rising gas prices, the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs have soured voters on Republicans.
“Donald Trump has broken one promise after another — and even his own supporters are fed up,“ Witmer said. ”Trump told Americans he would lower prices, create jobs, and put an end to forever wars — and he’s delivered on none of it.”
A group of attendees watch as Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks during the final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference, on Saturday, March 28, 2026 at Gaylord Texan Resort and Conference Center in Grapevine.
Shafkat Anowar / Staff Photographer
Former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, who represented South Texas, said Republicans will lose in November if they do not make inroads with Latino voters, who she called the “future of the Republican party.” Flores urged the Trump administration to hire a Hispanic outreach coordinator.
“There is no future for the Republican party if we do not invest in the Hispanic community,” Flores said to little applause. “We are people of faith, family and hard work.”
U.S. Rep. Keith Self, a McKinney Republican, said the GOP must ban Sharia, the moral code laid out in Muslim scripture. Like many at the conference, Self warned that Sharia was seeping into Texas and the country, posing a risk to Americans.
Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has said “preventing Sharia law” in Texas will be among his major priorities for the next legislative session.
“Sharia has no place in America,” Self said, calling it a “religion of the sword.”
In previous statements, the Texas chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations has accused state leaders of a “publicity stunt” and “inventing imaginary threats.”
One speaker after another stressed the importance of Texas to the country’s future. On Friday, Trump ally Steve Bannon called Texas the “crown jewel of the union.”
“Where Texas goes, so goes the nation,” Bannon told the crowd to cheers. “And where the nation goes, so goes the world.”
FORT WORTH, TX — When she’s not on the court, Texas forward Justice Carlton is baking cookies.
If you’re wondering if they’re good, just ask her teammates.
“They’re the best thing I’ve ever tasted,” senior Sarah Graves said.
What started as baking for her teammates and managers for fun has grown into a full-fledged business: J’s Rollin In Dough.
After hours of practice on the basketball court and in the weight room, Carlton spends six hours a day baking cookies to fulfill her orders – or sometimes, simply for fun.
“Anytime that I get out of practice around 5 I’m so happy because I just go home and bake,” Carlton said.
Carlton’s love for baking dates back to her childhood.
“My mom worked over the summers, so when we were out of school it was so boring,” she said. “But the Easy-Bake Oven and the cake pop machine saved my life.”
Over winter break, she and her mom began discussing the possibility of creating a business of her own. They decided she could use her NIL money to form a limited liability company and obtain her food handlers license, so she did just that.
In just three months of business, she’s received more than 100 orders and has gained nearly 1,200 followers on Instagram. She takes orders through a form linked in her Instagram bio.
“It’s funny to see athletes do other things they are passionate about because they put the same focus and intensity into it,” Graves said. “And I can tell she has that for baking.”
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Last month, Carlton baked a batch of cookies for the “College Gameday” staff in hopes of gaining some media attention. The following month, the SEC Network staff ordered a batch at the SEC tournament and tried the cookies on live TV.
“I used basketball as my platform, which (associate director of communications Jeremy Rosenthal) really helped me do,” she said. “I’ve just kind of been getting my name out there, so that’s been something that’s really fun.”
The flavors offered are chocolate chip, cookie monster, cookies n’ cream, red velvet, brown butter salted caramel snickerdoodle and her newest flavor, sugar cookie. She also takes requests.
“She made a banana pudding cookie recently,” freshman Aaliyah Crump said. “I think that one was my favorite.”
While many of her orders come from her teammates, she recently received an order from the Longhorns football team for a team party and for a neuroscience class celebration.
In the future, Carlton hopes to move her business outside of the kitchen and onto the streets.
“I’ve put all my sales money aside and I want to start a food truck,” she said. “I think I would do something like a Crumbl Cookies on wheels.”
For now, Carlton has turned the oven off while she and the Longhorns prepare to face Kentucky in the Sweet 16 on March 28.
Ansley Gavlak is a student in the University of Georgia’s Carmical Sports Media Institute.
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