Top-ranked Auburn’s undefeated conference record is on the line Saturday night when No. 6 Tennessee makes the trip to Neville Arena. The Tigers already notched impressive wins over Houston, Iowa State and Purdue, but facing the Volunteers could be the toughest game yet.
Home-court advantage will be crucial, as Auburn’s only loss of the season came on the road. The Tigers are a 6.5-point favorite and the total is set at 140.5. Let’s get into my betting picks for the must-see matchup between Tennessee and Auburn.
Tennessee vs. Auburn predictions and best bets
- Auburn -6.5: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Under 140.5: -106 at FanDuel Sportsbook
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Auburn benefits from a week of rest leading up to the top-10 clash. With a daunting SEC schedule, the time off gives the Tigers a chance to reset before an extremely important game.
Tennessee is one of the best teams in the nation, but the Volunteers’ two losses came on the road. This includes an upset loss against unranked Vanderbilt. According to TeamRankings, Auburn is 5-2-1 against the spread at Neville Arena, while Tennessee is 2-3 ATS in away games.
Johni Broome’s status is the biggest storyline heading into the game. The Wooden Award candidate has missed back-to-back games with an ankle injury, but head coach Bruce Pearl said Broome could return to practice at the end of the week.
Auburn has chugged along without Broome, notching a pair of ranked wins over Mississippi State and Georgia. The Tigers haven’t shown signs of regression without Broome in the lineup, so I’ll take Auburn to cover the spread.
I’m also betting the under because both teams play lockdown defense. Tennessee surrenders the third-fewest points in the nation, while Auburn allows just 66 points per game. The under is 7-4 when the Volunteers and Tigers square off with SEC opponents.
Tennessee vs. Auburn moneyline odds analysis
Why Auburn could win as the favorite
Odds: -285 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Broome suiting up would be massive for the Tigers. The senior forward leads the team in scoring, assists, rebounding and blocks, but may not play at the same level after sitting for two weeks.
If Broome isn’t ready to return, Auburn has proven it can contend without the big man, thanks to a deep roster that includes five other players averaging double-digit scoring. Chaney Johnson has gotten more minutes due to Broome’s injury and made the most of the opportunity with a 17-point performance in a blowout win over Mississippi State.
Freshman Tahaad Pettiford has been a game-changer for Auburn, and he’ll need another big game to take down the Volunteers. Pettiford is hitting 44% of his shots from beyond the arc and poured in a season-high 24 points in Auburn’s last game.
Why Tennessee could win as the underdog
Odds: +230 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Strong defense hasn’t forced the Volunteers to sacrifice scoring opportunities on the other end of the court. Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler combine to average just under 31 points per game, and Tennessee ranks seventh in offensive rebounding, per KenPom.
However, the Volunteers couldn’t buy a bucket in a 73-43 road loss versus Florida. Tennessee shot just 21.4% from the field and Zeigler and Lanier were the only players to reach double digits.
Auburn’s lengthy defenders block more shots per game than any team in the nation, and Tennessee can’t solely rely on Lanier and Zeigler to carry the load offensively. Jordan Gainey and Igor Milicic Jr. must step up to keep pace with the Tigers.