In the latest College Football Playoff rankings, Illinois clocked in at No. 21, clearly on the outside looking in and with no shot at making the field, regardless of what happens throughout the college football world this weekend. For Illini fans, it’s a major-league bummer.

The issue, for many, is this: Illinois’ 9-3 record is no different than that of 9-3 Alabama, which sits at No. 11 in the latest CFP rankings, and as of today would slip into the CFP.

But is it really?

The slotting of Alabama in the last CFP at-large spot has some key figures in the college football world in a frenzy, including Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and even Illinois’ own Bret Bielema.

But outrage doesn’t automatically equal controversy. There are good reasons why the Illini rank no higher than No. 19 and, frankly, have absolutely no argument for a spot in the CFP. Disregarding 10-2 Miami (that’s an entirely difference conversation), let’s compare the resumes of the three-loss teams in the CFP mix with that of Illinois:

South Carolina (No. 14 CFP)

The Gamecocks’ three defeats came against No. 13 Ole Miss (27-3), No. 11 Alabama (27-25) and LSU (36-33). Compare those to Illinois’ three losses: No. 1 Oregon (38-9), No. 3 Penn State (21-7) and Minnesota (27-25). Basically a coin flip. Each team lost two games to current top-15 teams, although the Illini’s losses came against the highest caliber of opponent. Moreover, South Carolina lost two of its three at home (Ole Miss and LSU), while Illinois dropped just one in Champaign (Minnesota). When comparing the “quality” of losses, give the Illini a slight edge.

And the wins? Illinois beat three teams that were ranked at the time, but Kansas finished the year 5-7 (though strung together three straight wins against ranked foes in November); Nebraska stumbled to a 6-6 season (3-6 Big Ten); and Michigan closed the regular season at 7-5 (5-4 Big Ten), its worst showing since before Jim Harbaugh arrived in Ann Arbor. (It didn’t stop the Wolverines from beating Ohio State for the fourth consecutive time, but that merits as little more than a footnote in this conversation.)

Meanwhile, South Carolina beat No. 17 Clemson just last week, took down No. 19 Missouri and dominated a solid Texas A&M team that entered their Week 10 game ranked 10th in the country. Those wins easily vault South Carolina ahead of Illinois. If you need the numbers to back it up, ESPN’s analytics give the Gamecocks college football’s 11th-best Strength of Record (which reflects a team’s results as compared to the projections of an average top-25 team against the same schedule). Illinois’ Strength of Record: No. 21.

South Carolina wins this one. On to the next. 

Ole Miss (No. 13 CFP)

Let’s start with the losses again. Ole Miss fell at home to a Kentucky squad that finished the year 4-8, then lost at Death Valley to 8-4 LSU, as well as at 7-5 Florida. Each of those teams is unranked, but in the Rebels’ defense, playing at LSU or Florida is a tall order in any season. As for the Kentucky loss, there’s no excuse. The Illini, whose losses we covered above, blow the Rebels out of the water here.

Moving on to the wins, Ole Miss thrashed No. 13 South Carolina on the road and handily beat No. 3 Georgia at home, 28-10.

Illinois’ best win: 7-5 Michigan.

Credit the Illini for beating the teams they were supposed to (aside from Minnesota) and not playing down to their competition, but the CFP committee is seeking teams with the ability to compete with anyone – and Illinois’ double-digit losses to the Ducks and Nittany Lions would seem to keep them from fitting that mold.

Ole Miss takes this one, although it’s perhaps a closer call than the South Carolina comparison.

Alabama (No. 11 CFP)

Speed round.

Losses: at Vanderbilt, at No. 7 Tennessee, at Oklahoma – a 24-3 stinker. (The Sooners finished with only two conference wins.)

The losses are not pretty. Tennessee is understandable. Even a road loss to Vanderbilt, which was in and out of the top 25 all year, isn’t unconscionable. But mustering three points and falling by three touchdowns to a Sooners squad that went 2-6 in the SEC is the textbook definition of a bad loss.

As history – meaning Ole Miss and South Carolina – has taught us, however, the losses don’t matter nearly as much as the wins. And the Tide have a handful of high-quality wins: a 42-13 blowout at LSU, a 41-34 win over No. 5 Georgia and a 34-0 whitewashing of No. 19 Missouri. 

Three marquee wins. Two in extremely dominant fashion.

No need to rehash Illinois’ biggest wins. (Sorry, Illini fans – it’s still just Michigan.)

The Tide easily clear the Illini here. As for whether or not they deserve to go in over Ole Miss and South Carolina – let alone Miami – is a debate for another time and place.

Now, enough with the negativity. 

The Illini have already locked up their ninth victory to reach that plateau for the first time since 2007), and in their upcoming bowl game they have a chance to tie the school record with a 10th win.

And regardless of how things shake out this weekend, Illinois is all but guaranteed to get a shot at one of the aforementioned SEC squads and a chance to prove it should have been ranked higher and been a larger part of the CFP discussion.

In any case, coach Bret Bielema and the Illini have put together one of the best campaigns in Illinois’ 100-years-plus football history and parlayed it into a top-50 incoming recruiting class. More help could be on the way. The Illini are one of the youngest teams in the FBS and next year welcome back quarterback Luke Altmyer. A bowl win over an SEC power and a 10-win season would set them up for an excellent season and a prolonged stretch of success that would be impossible for recruits not to notice.

Even with no CFP appearance this season, bigger things for Illinois may be very close at hand.

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